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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #3,241
  • Apr 11, 2007 3:03pm Apr 11, 2007 3:03pm
Quoting shamstec
hi all
could some one tell if it's good enough to look for going long the g/u now
or this pb is being engulfed-almost- by the last on it seems after mr bernanke speech the g/u well not head up ..confused??
thanks all

The weekly pinbar has no been invalidated yet. This means someone who played a short on the break of the pin would still beholding the position. Once it breaks the top of the pin, it is no longer a valid pinbar.


best,
mike
  • #3,242
  • Apr 11, 2007 3:05pm Apr 11, 2007 3:05pm
hi mike
about the risky trades i made and ur advice
thanks a lot
good luck
  • #3,243
  • Apr 11, 2007 3:09pm Apr 11, 2007 3:09pm
Quoting mbqb11
The weekly pinbar has no been invalidated yet. This means someone who played a short on the break of the pin would still beholding the position. Once it breaks the top of the pin, it is no longer a valid pinbar.


best,
mike
hi mike
thx for ur reply but me being zero about news facts i can't see what could the speach of mr bernanke affect g/u can u pls tell if there is any pls
much appreciated
  • #3,244
  • Apr 11, 2007 3:20pm Apr 11, 2007 3:20pm
Quoting shamstec
hi mike
thx for ur reply but me being zero about news facts i can't see what could the speach of mr bernanke affect g/u can u pls tell if there is any pls
much appreciated
i couldnt tell you how his speech will effect the long-term of the g/u, i know FOMC minutes were hawkish. I don't really pay attention to fundamentals, just know what is coming out and when.

Best,
Mike
  • #3,245
  • Apr 11, 2007 3:28pm Apr 11, 2007 3:28pm
Quoting mbqb11
The weekly pinbar has no been invalidated yet. This means someone who played a short on the break of the pin would still beholding the position. Once it breaks the top of the pin, it is no longer a valid pinbar.


best,
mike
Yeah, holding on for dear life!
  • #3,246
  • Apr 11, 2007 3:38pm Apr 11, 2007 3:38pm
Quoting mbqb11
i couldnt tell you how his speech will effect the long-term of the g/u, i know FOMC minutes were hawkish. I don't really pay attention to fundamentals, just know what is coming out and when.

Best,
Mike
hi mike
i guss it's so for long term trades
thx a lot
  • #3,247
  • Apr 11, 2007 3:43pm Apr 11, 2007 3:43pm
Quoting steveshutts
Here is a question regarding risk/reward for those who are taking profits consistently. I did ask something along these lines before but would like to raise the issue again.
I suppose it boils down to whether you are an all in all out trader, or you scale out etc. I like to scale about half my position at a pre-determined target area so i can move my stop to BE and book partial profits.
However, i am at a constant battle as to what is a good risk/reward for the first target. What do you guys do?
I recently took an AUD/USD short before the easter break and i could have taken partial profits which equated to my initial risk in pip size. However, i think that we need to see about 1:1.5 at least before scaling so i didn't take profits and i got stopped out. This was mainly due to the fact that i was away until yesterday and i could not manage the trade, otherwise i would have moved my stop to BE when price had shown strong support.
I was just wondering whether you guys have a pre-determined risk/reward and if this is not met then you leave the trade?

Also, regarding the entries on these setups. Say, for instance, you wish to take on a dbhlc trade but you want to get in on the retrace to manage a smaller stop, the same goes for a pin bar. Do you wait for the break of the low/high of the bar first and then wait for the retrace?
Hi Steve
As usual, Mike and SL have raised some good points, and I also feel that exits are, generally, our weakest points as we learn to trade.

I had these same concerns, and raised them in my own thread at http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=12273 and as I digested the responses I realised that fear of losing 'something' was making me grab pips for no apparent reason other than the thought that, maybe, my 'luck' on this trade had run its course, and I'd better take something out before it's too late.

No more! I put the trade on, and, depending on the pair, either let it run until it appears to have run out of steam close to an obvious resistance level, or let it run up and down the flag pole with a wide stop if I'm confident that it's still got some strength to keep the overall trend in its sights. Whatever decision I make at the time I'll close all the lots, or let them run.

Maybe it's that I'm developing confidence in both my methodology, and my mental approach that's making the difference - but as Dial has said before, if it's a winner don't feel happy and if it's a loser don't feel sad.

If you think you have an edge then let the edge work for you and don't try and build a mental safety-net around your trading. All it will do is prolong the sense of uncertainty that will stop you making money in the long run.

I suppose it does depend on the time frames you deal with but to give you some idea of how relaxed I am now (and not to prove how clever I am) I had a buy limit placed before I went on holiday that triggered at 11:00 am 5th April @ 1.9694. Look at where cable has been since then and where it is now, and it's still running. I appreciate I was on holiday while that was happening but I know I wouldn't have closed it even if I had been at home.

If you're as sure as you can be that your trade decision is right then be as bold as your money management rules allow and make decisions on closing a trade, as the other guys have said, when you feel the time is right. If you leave pips on the table this time - so what? There's another trade opportunity coming to a place near you - and soon.
  • #3,248
  • Apr 12, 2007 2:31am Apr 12, 2007 2:31am
Thanks for the reponse guys. I must admit, i do believe that by scaling you end up chasing your tail a lot of the time, which is what i have been doing for a long time. I just wanted to get an idea of peoples risk/reward attitude before they take a trade on, and from traders who are making a living from this.
I know that it depends on the probabilitly of hitting that target etc but just wondered what people think when it comes down to making this decision. We all know the pre-determined risk when taking a trade on, your entry minus the stop gives us this. Do you guys have a fixed target, and if so, do you have a rough estimate of want you want to achieve regarding your risk/reward? I am sure you wouldn't take on a trade that has resistance nearby that equates to the same size as your risk in pips?
Or do you simply look for the next major level of support/resistance and wait for price action at that level. If it smashes through then you hold on to the trade, or if it looks like it is going to reverse then you take profit. The thing with this method is that it is very hard to tell the difference between a retracement and a reversal before its too late and all your profits are taken away.
Do you trail stops on the full position? Just wanted to get a take on these things really. We never really know how far price is going to run and by trailing stops you can catch more of the ride but also you can leave lots of pips on the table when price doesn't trend, which is more of the time!
  • #3,249
  • Apr 12, 2007 2:49am Apr 12, 2007 2:49am
Quoting steveshutts
Thanks for the reponse guys. I must admit, i do believe that by scaling you end up chasing your tail a lot of the time, which is what i have been doing for a long time. I just wanted to get an idea of peoples risk/reward attitude before they take a trade on, and from traders who are making a living from this.
I know that it depends on the probabilitly of hitting that target etc but just wondered what people think when it comes down to making this decision. We all know the pre-determined risk when taking a trade on, your entry minus the stop gives us this. Do you guys have a fixed target, and if so, do you have a rough estimate of want you want to achieve regarding your risk/reward? I am sure you wouldn't take on a trade that has resistance nearby that equates to the same size as your risk in pips?
Or do you simply look for the next major level of support/resistance and wait for price action at that level. If it smashes through then you hold on to the trade, or if it looks like it is going to reverse then you take profit. The thing with this method is that it is very hard to tell the difference between a retracement and a reversal before its too late and all your profits are taken away.
Do you trail stops on the full position? Just wanted to get a take on these things really. We never really know how far price is going to run and by trailing stops you can catch more of the ride but also you can leave lots of pips on the table when price doesn't trend, which is more of the time!
Exits are a very personal thing, there are all kinds of variations. It really becomes a testing process. Some people used fixed targets based on R:R rations, some use fib extension, some use S/R with price action, some trail. Their are positives and negatives with everything you do. The idea is to find something that works consistently enough to produce a positive expectancy. This is only going to be achieved through extensive testing on your part, to find something that works for you. I personally found trailing on the 4hr time frames, and using a combo of trailing s/r pa on the larger timeframes(have a whole thread dedicated to exits in the PF)

For instance trailing stops will help cut losses, and help stay in for longer runs, but at the same time may take us out on a small correction. Pros and cons. A fixed target could produce a great R:R, but saying price HAS to reach a certain level is tough, cause who knows where price is going to stop and what if it comes within 10 pips of a 200 pt target, do you let it reverse and hit your stop? The answer comes back to your testing.

Test tons of methods to find one your are comfortable with. Then forward and backtest the hell out of it. Once you can get some idea of the expectancy of your overall system you can start making some consistent pips.

Best,
Mike
  • #3,250
  • Apr 12, 2007 2:50am Apr 12, 2007 2:50am
Placed one trade on EUR/CAD this morning. SHort at 5346, SL 5396 and target area is 5200.
Yesterday was a large down day off a pin bar and we got a BEOB on the 240. Price has since retraced 62% of yesterdays move and has met old support now acting as resistance. Price penetrated the last swing low on the daily and if this continues down then i am looking at taking profits at 5200 area.
Entry was taken from the hourly but my stop is behind the BEOB on the 240.
Lets see where this goes.

Also looking to go long on Kiwi at 240 pin bar.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1176364089

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1176364089
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  • #3,251
  • Apr 12, 2007 2:59am Apr 12, 2007 2:59am
Looking to go long on NZD/USD off pin bar on 240. Target area is weekly resistance at 7350.
In line with main trend. Have seen an inside bar break south on daily but doesn't look very convincing to me considering where it happened.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1176364744
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  • #3,252
  • Apr 12, 2007 3:01am Apr 12, 2007 3:01am
Quoting mbqb11

Test tons of methods to find one your are comfortable with. Then forward and backtest the hell out of it. Once you can get some idea of the expectancy of your overall system you can start making some consistent pips.

Best,
Mike
With regards to backtesting a discretional approach. How did you go about this Mike? Did you step through years of data bar by bar on the weekly, daily and 240 charts? Did you perform this on various currencies?
  • #3,253
  • Apr 12, 2007 3:07am Apr 12, 2007 3:07am
Quoting steveshutts
With regards to backtesting a discretional approach. How did you go about this Mike? Did you step through years of data bar by bar on the weekly, daily and 240 charts? Did you perform this on various currencies?
yep also i recommend forextester if you dont have the discipline to use the f12 key
  • #3,254
  • Apr 12, 2007 3:40am Apr 12, 2007 3:40am
I suppose the important aspect is that you take your profits in a consistent manner, ie you use the same method every time? Just checking out ForexTester, it looks good on the website.
The main problem when using the F12 key is keeping all the timeframes in synch. Also, you sometimes have to scroll back to see past s+r levels and this can lead to you seeing future prices when you return to your point. There is a lot more concentration needed when stepping through manually so i hope this may help.
  • #3,255
  • Apr 12, 2007 3:42am Apr 12, 2007 3:42am
Quoting steveshutts
Placed one trade on EUR/CAD this morning. SHort at 5346, SL 5396 and target area is 5200.
Yesterday was a large down day off a pin bar and we got a BEOB on the 240. Price has since retraced 62% of yesterdays move and has met old support now acting as resistance. Price penetrated the last swing low on the daily and if this continues down then i am looking at taking profits at 5200 area.
Entry was taken from the hourly but my stop is behind the BEOB on the 240.
Lets see where this goes.

steve,
good luck getting through that support on eur/cad
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  • #3,256
  • Apr 12, 2007 4:03am Apr 12, 2007 4:03am
Quoting steveshutts
Placed one trade on EUR/CAD this morning. SHort at 5346, SL 5396 and target area is 5200.
Yesterday was a large down day off a pin bar and we got a BEOB on the 240.
Don't see that BEOB. I got a PB at the low.
Same story as on USDCAD in effect(also pinned).
USDCAD doesn't have such a nice channel however

EURCAD is an unknown entity to me, but I spent a minute alone with it and this is what I can quickdraw you.


This chart is NOT trading advice. This is simply how _I_ would look at this.
Don't change any of your running trades just because I am posting this.

I just wanted to make you aware of a possible squeeze to either side here. Could be it gets squeezed up, exhausts after a short while and uses that impetus to smash back down to new lows.
Things like to do evil stuff like that
Could also just squeeze out to above the descending TL and find footing again in the chan and even hop that. Trichet is due today, so anything goes.

Edit: just saw the_wizard's post - yea, that 4h PB sits smack dab on that supporting trendline. So unless that goes, it's still got good support. But nothing lasts forever, eh? *g*
Attached Image
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #3,257
  • Apr 12, 2007 4:28am Apr 12, 2007 4:28am
Thanks guys, all feedback welcome.

I must admit, i originally had my daily trendline higher so it looked like the channel had been broken but after redrawing it i can see the support line. However, i am sticking to my plan.
Its amazing how different platforms can often tell a different story as well.
  • #3,258
  • Apr 12, 2007 7:18am Apr 12, 2007 7:18am
Well, my EUR/Cad trade is moving quite nicely but has found support off the 5300 RN.
My Kiwi long trade has triggered off the 240 pin bar.
  • #3,259
  • Apr 12, 2007 8:40am Apr 12, 2007 8:40am
Can anybody recommend a good paint software package that is free. I am having trouble with my current one. I need it to annotate my charts etc and post in my journal, so it needs to be fairly simple and straight forward.
  • #3,260
  • Apr 12, 2007 10:19am Apr 12, 2007 10:19am
Quoting steveshutts
Can anybody recommend a good paint software package that is free. I am having trouble with my current one. I need it to annotate my charts etc and post in my journal, so it needs to be fairly simple and straight forward.

The gimp. Yes, that's the real name. But I'd just use any MT4 demo and the text labeling and tools from that.
Trust price. Know yourself.
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