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Trend Follower 5 Minute System

  • #3,041
  • Apr 24, 2009 12:06pm Apr 24, 2009 12:06pm
Quoting WilteredFire
Picture of a quick +10 pips...Macd on signal line is generally quite flat but signal was taken on the next bar as macd was over the zero line and laguerre clearly moved out of the 0.15 area, nice signal as Trend Follower m5 and m15 trend is already established as a Long with the Guppy, so its a very safe signal to take, also Laguerre on m5 was floored to the top, indicating good price strength. Again, only 7-8pip stop loss necessary, if you get stopped out, it would have been a bad trade anyway. Keep your losses small, and keep your wins big.
Well done WilteredFire, but I was thinking it is a bit risky to take trades outside S3-R3 range even for scalping. Don't you think so?
Learning never stops...
  • #3,042
  • Apr 24, 2009 12:06pm Apr 24, 2009 12:06pm
Quoting golden1
More than experienced here, no worries... just looking to make sure
I have this system's exact rules down.

So, on this system, would you still take a long with the laguerre above the 0.75 level? Some systems, as you know only trade if a level break occurs at the same time...others a long as long as its above the 0.15 but
not above a level.. just making sure I understand this system
specifics. Would you take a long that in all other ways
lined up perfectly but the laguerre was already above the 0.75 level?

thanks to all!

Brian
If the laguerre is already into the 0.85 mark, and even if the rules match, personally I wouldn't get into the move. Its not how the methods supposed to work. According to the rules you've got to get in when the Laguerres crossing up out of the 0.15 area. Even if there is a strong trend I would nor get in...Now having said that, I understand that often good moves May be missed as well as avoiding bad signals, so get around this, all I do is go into the m1 timeframe and soon as the Laguerre moves out of the 0.15 level to go long. This basically is giving me an entry into the m5 trend. Although Wicker hasn't mentioned about this, this is what Im doing, so please backtest/forward test on a demo as you like before following my advice.

In my opinion its perfectly safe to use the m1 chart with the original rules, especially when the m5 trend is the same as the m1 trend. If m5 doesn't give you an entry, and it has good moves going, if you flicked down into your m1, for say a long situation, you would be basically entering after a retrace. I hope your with me?

if price on m5 is going long, laguerres over into the 0.85 area...and you want an entry, the way You can get the entry would likely be after price retraces a bit on the m1 chart. But with the original m5 rules, you cant enter if laguerre is above 0.85 for a long. Hope this helps.
  • #3,043
  • Apr 24, 2009 12:13pm Apr 24, 2009 12:13pm
Quoting abc997
Well done WilteredFire, but I was thinking it is a bit risky to take trades outside S3-R3 range even for scalping. Don't you think so?
Yeh for sure, outside those ranges its not worth it...I was expecting a bit of a push in price so I took the trade. Guppy gives me confidence, and I saw the laguerre moving nicely, everything was with the trend, m5 trend and m15 trends were both long. and when your aiming for 9-10pips, its not difficult to reach your Take Profit quickly

But yes, thanks for reminding me, Its not a good idea to trade when the price is outside of the S3-R3 ranges, this was more just to show another nice M1 trade

How was your trading day today? how many trades did you manage to pick up if you dont mind me asking?
  • #3,044
  • Apr 24, 2009 12:30pm Apr 24, 2009 12:30pm
Perfect, that's what I was hoping for.. thank you very much Wilted Fire
great info.

Brian

Quoting WilteredFire
If the laguerre is already into the 0.85 mark, and even if the rules match, personally I wouldn't get into the move. Its not how the methods supposed to work. According to the rules you've got to get in when the Laguerres crossing up out of the 0.15 area. Even if there is a strong trend I would nor get in...Now having said that, I understand that often good moves May be missed as well as avoiding bad signals, so get around this, all I do is go into the m1 timeframe and soon as the Laguerre moves out of the 0.15 level to go long. This basically is...
  • #3,045
  • Apr 24, 2009 12:46pm Apr 24, 2009 12:46pm
Quoting WilteredFire
Yeh for sure, outside those ranges its not worth it...I was expecting a bit of a push in price so I took the trade. Guppy gives me confidence, and I saw the laguerre moving nicely, everything was with the trend, m5 trend and m15 trends were both long. and when your aiming for 9-10pips, its not difficult to reach your Take Profit quickly

But yes, thanks for reminding me, Its not a good idea to trade when the price is outside of the S3-R3 ranges, this was more just to show another nice M1 trade

How was your trading day today? how many trades...
I am very happy to share information here. My learning has not been possible without the sharing of information by others.

I am using a demo account, but I am not even comfortable to make an order, after a series of loss trades a while ago. Now, I am just verbal trading, and did not mark the trade very formally. I do make realtime judgement on whether to enter a trade, so to make sure my judgements are not based on hindsight.

That means I don't have precise score. But roughly 5-10 trade today. Most are winning, some are breakeven. I don't think it is a norm. Trends today are very good, my friend.

Since my PC is not superfast, I cannot open more 10 charts and use other application with normal speed. And so I set 4 most tight-spread pairs as M1, and others 4-5 pairs as M5. I am not use M1 for scalping, I use it like using M5. Perhaps M1 is best to be used for scalping, no sure yet.
Learning never stops...
  • #3,046
  • Apr 24, 2009 1:22pm Apr 24, 2009 1:22pm
I can sympathize with getting the trigger finger sickness even on a demo.

The best way to solve it is to trade full lots, till you either blowup the account or make some money. ONLY on demo of course.

This is a great system if like Pilatus you know exactly WHY you are making the order when you get the signal. I didn't and have gone back to square one, restudying.

Pull that trigger, it is only a demo account.

Blow it up and get it out of your system. Then, open another account and treat it like real money. If you don't get over that now, you will never be able to pull the trigger with your own REAL, hard earned cash.
Starting to see instead of just looking.
  • #3,047
  • Apr 24, 2009 1:53pm Apr 24, 2009 1:53pm
Yeh. best thing would be to practice pulling the trigger on Demo, but only pull trigger when the signal is right and things look good on the chart, just pull the trigger as Rastaman says..

Once you do things right, and you manage to get good trades going for 2-3 weeks, or even a month if you need to....My advice would be to stop wasting time with demo trading and jump into live trading...

Obviously to start with trading micro lots, and work your way up steadily as your capital increases, and start compounding your profits slowly. Although money management can be a bit of a personal thing, and dependant upon how you trade, demo trading will never be good enough to teach you real trading as live trading is what is going to make you better...

When your money is at stake, and your emotions kick in, its a different story to trading with demo money. Best way to deal with your confidence is trade live when your ready, but with microlots, and build up your confidence. Dont stick to demo for too long.

All the best guys
  • #3,048
  • Apr 25, 2009 3:08am Apr 25, 2009 3:08am
Thanks for advice Buddies Rastaman and WilteredFire.

I am a human not an EA. Trading involves both technical skills and mental skills. If the trading method works, but confidence doesn't, no profit can be made. I think it is good to do thing step-by-step.

Back Sim Trading
-->
Verbal Trading
-->
Paper Trading
-->
Demo Trading
-->
Micro Lot
-->
Standard Lot
-->
Multiple Lot

For example, if Back Sim Trading doesn't work, there is no point to go Demo Trading. Right or not? Doing so will just destory confidence, and if confidence is destroyed, a trader may give up the trading activities altogether. Now, with persistence, I don't think it is a problem to go through step-by-step. At the moment, M1 give me enough training opportunities. It is just a matter of time to go Demo Trading, once my performance is stable. So what I need is stable performance before doing what you suggested.

Verbal trading have a big advantage. When one first learn something, one will encounter much more failures and verbal trading will not remind of the failures, and learning is much less to be disturbed by emotion, and thus the quality of learning is much better. And when I learned enough and my technical performance is stable, I should be too timid not to trade demo and real.

cheers,
Learning never stops...
  • #3,049
  • Apr 27, 2009 12:13pm Apr 27, 2009 12:13pm
Quoting abc997
Thanks for advice Buddies Rastaman and WilteredFire.

I am a human not an EA. Trading involves both technical skills and mental skills. If the trading method works, but confidence doesn't, no profit can be made. I think it is good to do thing step-by-step.

Back Sim Trading
-->
Verbal Trading
-->
Paper Trading
-->
Demo Trading
-->
Micro Lot
-->
Standard Lot
-->
Multiple Lot

For example, if Back Sim Trading doesn't work, there is no point to go Demo Trading. Right or not? Doing so will just destory confidence, and if confidence...
Hi! Can you tell me please what is verbal trading or where I can read something about it??
  • #3,050
  • Apr 27, 2009 10:02pm Apr 27, 2009 10:02pm
Quoting pilatus
Hi! Can you tell me please what is verbal trading or where I can read something about it??
Sure! It is something that I developed myself to establish my confidence. I observe MT4 realtime and to decide if I want to enter a trade. Once I entered a trade I keep observe it and decide when to exit. Even though I am using a demo account, I don't have enough confidence to make an order or write the trades down. So, in the case of failed trades, it is easy to forget them. When my performance is stable, I will then micro-lot trade.
Learning never stops...
  • #3,051
  • Apr 28, 2009 2:54pm Apr 28, 2009 2:54pm
Finnaly good day today. Three winners and one looser. About 180 pips including loss.
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  • #3,052
  • Apr 28, 2009 2:57pm Apr 28, 2009 2:57pm
And one winner and one looser.
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  • #3,053
  • Apr 28, 2009 7:16pm Apr 28, 2009 7:16pm
Quoting abc997
Hi Y2a, you said your winning ratio is 69%, may I ask you how many trades you've found in your backtesting for the month? And how did you select/reject the signals? Cheers!
Sorry I took so long to reply, I never got notifications from this thread I actually had a 67% success rate, not 69% as I said earlier, my mistake

Anyhow, during the month of March, I netted a total of 126 valid signals, this is trading the four major pairs, USD/CAD and AUD/USD during the hours from 10am-2pm EST and 10pm-2am EST. I back tested the entire 24 hours of each trading day from Monday-Thursday and came to the conclusion that these were the most convenient trading times for me that gave the most valid signals, therefore the best times to trade.

The way I enter trades is exactly the way that was described in TheWicker's blog: At the signal arrow candle or the very next one after the signal arrow (BUT NOT AFER THAT!), when ALL conditions are met for a Long/Buy or Short/Sell. My SL is 15 pips above recent high (for Short/Sell) and 15 pips below recent low (for Long/Buy). I close half my position at the first pivot point and the other half when the slope line changes direction.

Usually the slope line netted me the most pips per signal, BUT it has to be trending well in order to do so. Sometimes when I wait until it changes direction, I've only broke even or lost pips that I had initially gained. I usually hit the pivot points with no problem (USUALLY, NOT ALWAYS).

Overall, I made 1997 pips (not including spreads) for the month of March
  • #3,054
  • Apr 28, 2009 11:28pm Apr 28, 2009 11:28pm
Quoting pilatus
And one winner and one looser.
Congratulation! Great trades!
Learning never stops...
  • #3,055
  • Apr 28, 2009 11:29pm Apr 28, 2009 11:29pm
Quoting Y2a
Sorry I took so long to reply, I never got notifications from this thread I actually had a 67% success rate, not 69% as I said earlier, my mistake

Anyhow, during the month of March, I netted a total of 126 valid signals, this is trading the four major pairs, USD/CAD and AUD/USD during the hours from 10am-2pm EST and 10pm-2am EST. I back tested the entire 24 hours of each trading day from Monday-Thursday and came to the conclusion that these were the most convenient trading times for me that gave the most valid signals, therefore...

Y2a, thanks for your reply.

Sound that the only difference from the orignal rules is that you use a bigger SL, but didn't try to filter the original signal in anyway, not even a narrow rainbow or steady prior-signal price movement.

Your number of valid signal per week per pair is about 4.8 (126/6/4.34), which may not be different from TheWicker's original claim (3 for major hours only per pair per week).

After spread, the winning rate should drop a few percent, say 62-65%. I think it is largely the best the original system is about when do it mechanically.

If the average spread cost is roughly about 3 pips, your back-testing profit will be about 1997-126x3 = 1619 (+12.6 per trade)

Finally, I don't know how you do your backtesting, but my experience when doing backtesting by eye, it is much easier to overlook bad signals than very good signals. For very good signals, they are extremely clear, but for bad signals, you have to look into the details to spot. Hope you have done it careful enough.
Learning never stops...
  • #3,056
  • Apr 29, 2009 5:39am Apr 29, 2009 5:39am
A really good signal that I've missed. It just got everything that I am dreaming of.
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Learning never stops...
  • #3,057
  • Apr 29, 2009 8:21am Apr 29, 2009 8:21am
Quoting abc997
A really good signal that I've missed. It just got everything that I am dreaming of.
Well done abc...excelent signal. All conditions are met. Price above previous resitstance, steady for some time before signal, good risk/reward ratio. Look for that kind of signal. I think that now you understand what I am talking about.
  • #3,058
  • Apr 29, 2009 10:11am Apr 29, 2009 10:11am
Quoting pilatus
Well done abc...excelent signal. All conditions are met. Price above previous resitstance, steady for some time before signal, good risk/reward ratio. Look for that kind of signal. I think that now you understand what I am talking about.
Yes. I think now I understand what you have been talking about. Thanks!
Learning never stops...
  • #3,059
  • Apr 29, 2009 12:26pm Apr 29, 2009 12:26pm
But guys... there is big movement before this signals? Around 80-100 pips? Isnt that breaking the rules?
Twitter @raitchev
  • #3,060
  • Apr 29, 2009 8:25pm Apr 29, 2009 8:25pm
Quoting raitchev
But guys... there is big movement before this signals? Around 80-100 pips? Isnt that breaking the rules?
The figure was zoomed out. For hours before the signal, the movement was within 40pips.
Learning never stops...
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