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  • #2,361
  • Apr 24, 2009 10:49am Apr 24, 2009 10:49am
Quoting Grimweasel
So, I'm lookig at AUDYEN and thinking that the train may have been on the turntable? (I have never traded this pair)

We have hit the SR at 68.30ish and then bounced off, retraced back into the bounce and then put in a BUEB. I take it this would indicate the possibility of the train heading North again? Only issue is being in the 20/50 zone and the 20 is applying the pressure to the north.

I'm not touching this pair as it looks weak to me. The current action is completing a RH shoulder of a slanted looking H&S pattern. Monthly is currently a...
Good for you, Danny, boy - never trade anything that doesn't MAKE SENSE to YOU.

She is using previous R of 68.80, say 69.00, as support, but is up against the long down TL and the top at 73.50. Technically, she has just put in a HL so............
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #2,362
  • Apr 24, 2009 11:02am Apr 24, 2009 11:02am
Get another note out and stick it on your laptop:

AM I WANTING TO TRADE OR MAKE MONEY?
Hi Strat
It's fixed firmly there now - back and catching up on the thread after being away for a meeting....many thanks, Nicole
  • #2,363
  • Apr 24, 2009 11:03am Apr 24, 2009 11:03am
Quoting One14
Ah......
I didn't catch it at first, but I kept at it.
I was stuck seeing prices moving sideways on the Daily (from Dec-now), but your March 10th observation made me see some light. Prices initially went up in Dec/Jan/Feb and then stopped going up (lower swing high on Feb 23). Then they stopped going down (swing low March 3rd). So now we wait to see if price continues up and makes a new swing high above the one on Feb 10. This could be a convergence of events, right? Break of downtrend, break of 1.7500 resistance and new high.
Attached is a chart...
Price can only do one of 3 things:

Go UP
Go DOWN
Do NOTHING (sideways)

Price almost always goes through consolidation after a trending move and usually, the bigger/longer the trend, the longer the consolidation.

Hence, you will see consolidation across all time frames and these are where 90% of traders lose their accounts
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #2,364
  • Apr 24, 2009 11:12am Apr 24, 2009 11:12am
Quoting strat
I need a break from my Momentum Cycle stuff which is really hurting my head today so, with 1 hour to go to NY close, let's just make sure we are all seeing what's happening:

AUDJPY:
BUEB bouncing off support and TL BUT in 20-50 trap and nicely held down by 20. Looks like a re-test of 73.50. I'm getting my ATM card out!

AUDUSD:
BUEB bouncing off support. Retest of 0.7320?

CADJPY:
Same as AUDJPY but re-test of psycho 83.00?

CHFJPY:
BUEB - same as other JPY pairs? Go for it guys!

EURJPY:
BUEB - same as other JPY pairs? Go for it guys!

EURUSD:
Beautiful...
Hmmm - I gave you guys free lunches and you say "no thanks" - I'll bet the lurkers took them without saying thanks! If I was interested, I would count the pips you missed, but I'm not.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #2,365
  • Apr 24, 2009 11:12am Apr 24, 2009 11:12am
Hi Blackeagle
Thanks for posting those charts. They help me with expanding my knowledge bank. I personally need to start zooming further out on my charts to get the bigger, bigger picture prior to drawing my TL! many thanks, Nicole
  • #2,366
  • Edited 11:25am Apr 24, 2009 11:15am | Edited 11:25am
Quoting MPP
Big Boss - hit 50% fib on retracment - need to wait for bar to close to assess it
Boss - hanging man with bearish confirmation in following bar - need to wait for bar to close and confirm
Daily - BEOB followed by 3 IB - IB broke south, but BEOB still not in play

trend is down

Attachment

Attachment

Attachment
Hello Jason,

Looks like a good play down IF it breaks that huge support that is holding everything up (can't read from your chart and I don't have that pair - 0.8100?)
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #2,367
  • Apr 24, 2009 11:23am Apr 24, 2009 11:23am
Quoting One14
Hi Paul,
Take a look at the index and check out the Suppport and Resistance sections.
Read them and then go back to the thread and find Strat's reply to my post on Swing Lows and Highs (a few pages back).
He added an image with a nice explanation of Swing Highs and Lows if you study it.
Now go back and reread the S&R section and hopefully something will click.
I can't wait to hear Strat's next clue.

Corbett
A lemon entry my dear Watson!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #2,368
  • Apr 24, 2009 11:34am Apr 24, 2009 11:34am
Quoting shoestring
Blackeagle,
Thanks for your reply. Line charts on weekly and daily show .73 as a better SR, as do candles once I had the line drawn.
With this TL broken, could it have any significance as resistance at .73?
In most cases (I say "most", because sometimes we may have picture perfect TLs and price follows those TLs, if you have a Natural Gas futures chart, you'll see what I mean), SR lines have more significance than TLs. When a TL is too much violated, it becomes less significant and it is removed from the chart at one stage, but SR lines are always on the chart (of course depending on how much look-back period you use). So, answer is yes, 0.73 is still significant and will be so in the future.
  • #2,369
  • Apr 24, 2009 11:58am Apr 24, 2009 11:58am
Quoting Blackeagle
I have drawn TL on line chart, so connected 2/2 close to 2/17 close which are important swing lows, IMO (where we have S/R lines as well).
This was going to be for a later lesson, but since Blackeagle opened the door.....................

This is exactly how I draw my TLs!

I also draw TLs in between swings to give me an indication of momentum. There are so many things you can do with TLs providing you know what to do with the information they give you.

As Blackeagle says and as I have said in earlier posts, connecting the close of major swing lows and the close of major swing highs and projecting them forward reveals further S&R especially when they are in confluence with horizontal S&R or fibs - when this happens it is very powerful.

I also use the open on swing highs but many times these are in parallel with those from the close.

TLs are worth their weight in gold and reveal far more information than "experts" give them credit for PROVIDING you know what to look for.

Caution: Don't put too many TLs on your charts as 1) you will not see the overall picture clearly and 2) our brain/subconscious sees them as boundaries and subconsciously "limits" our thinking/analysis to the restrictions imposed by those TLs.

Now if only I could get TLs to help me with my cycles!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #2,370
  • Apr 24, 2009 1:05pm Apr 24, 2009 1:05pm
CHFJPY:
Two TLs are shown here.

The lower TL was drawn from the open in Jan providing significant support to the open in Feb providing significant support and projected forward - this has not come into play ....... yet ....... watch this space!

The upper TL was drawn from the same significant open in Feb to the second significant open in mid Feb (third circle) and projected forward. Nothing happened until mid April where the TL provides confluence with the support line giving us a pretty good base from which to sneak 150 pips

AUDJPY:
Only one TL is shown here but it could be two but since they are so close together, I have gone with the one from the most recent data.

My first TL was drawn from the first arrow to the second arrow. It was then adjusted to being drawn from the first arrow to the third arrow because it was using more recent data and the support with the 20 meant it was more significant than the second arrow. This was then projected forward.

Nothing happened and it just sat there until March 30. Look at that hammer on March 30 what does it tell you happened? If you have been following this thread, you should have a pretty good idea by now.

Price found support on March 29 at the 150 and near major support. The brokers, MMs and big boys knew prices were going higher so what did they do? Yes, Dr. Joe, they cleared everyone out so that they would have a clean sheet.

They drove prices down through two areas of major support, through psycho 67.00, through psycho 66.00 and then, where did they stop and turn around? Not only on our TL drawn from Feb through March but 2 pips through psycho 65.00. Whores, rich whores Dr. Joe called them! So, our TL at 65.00 was huge confluence and a BIG GREEN light to go long.

Then on April 20, 21, and 22 prices tested the TL again AT resistance turned support - more confluence. So, another opportunity to grab a few pips. Today, price yet again, tested that strong area of support

So, TLs drawn correctly are very valuable -learn how to use them and practice, practice on thousands of charts.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chfjpy tl.gif Size: 28 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: audjpy tl.gif Size: 26 KB
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #2,371
  • Apr 24, 2009 1:17pm Apr 24, 2009 1:17pm
[quote=strat;2693769]CHFJPY:
Two TLs are shown here.

The lower TL was drawn from the open in Jan providing significant support to the open in Feb providing significant support and projected forward - this has not come into play ....... yet ....... watch this space!

The upper TL...

Great example!

I added it to the index.

http://sites.google.com/site/stratsstressfreetrading/

email me to be added to the path of learning... [email protected]

Lance
  • #2,372
  • Apr 24, 2009 2:25pm Apr 24, 2009 2:25pm
USD/JPY

UJ confirmed the April 6 high on April 10 and 13th. Price was having difficulty with BOSS 50 at that point. Since then we've meandered down under the 20 and looks like we will close below the TL and 50 now as well. Bouncing off the BOSS 20 which may just be a temporary rest stop. Would love to see a nice PA bar formed at the new downtrend line as well as the 20 which has started to point down just a tad.

I've left off S/R lines as most of the price action in this area is choppy and the 150 EMA seems to be taking over that role here anyway
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 424 uj daily.gif Size: 33 KB
  • #2,373
  • Edited 4:46pm Apr 24, 2009 4:12pm | Edited 4:46pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur-jpy 4-24-09monthly.gif Size: 15 KB


The Big Boss appears undecided, it is posting higher highs and higher lows, for the last 3 months. The 20 and 50 on the Big Boss are both pointing down though. Not only are they pointing down, but the 20 has crossed under the 50. I know the monthly candle is not formed at this time, but it looks undecided as well. It looks like a spinning top at this time meaning it can go either way. Either that or a messed up shooting star meaning down. Between the MA's and the Big Boss's indecision, I am concerned.



Check out this beautiful hammer!

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur-jpy 4-24-09.gif Size: 16 KB


This hammer is off of the support 128.62. Also a confluence of 50 fib line, bouncing off the 20 MA.
As tempting as it is, I will not trade it. One reason is the BIG BOSS. But another reason is on the weekly itself. The risk would be 334 pips. I could afford it within my money management, but the first resistance area is 218 pips. Which would not give me even 1 to 1 RR. The next resistance area I have is the 135.98 area which would not quite give me 2:1 RR. Too risky for me at this time. I will be watching this pair for possible clues during the upcoming weeks, for a possible trade. But the weekly trade for me is a no go.

There is really not much else on the weekly or dailies that caught my attention this week. Oh well, another no trade week. Maybe next week will bring decent PASR.
  • #2,374
  • Apr 24, 2009 6:31pm Apr 24, 2009 6:31pm
Hi Rgrace,

EURJPY:

Sure it is tradeable. Here what I see: Although the Big Boss is trending down but look at the Boss she is telling us something. She made double bottom and forming W form. Remember the Boss turns before the Big Boss.

I analysis Strat's EURJPY trade last time he called FAT CITY. At that time the Boss just made double bottom and daily was bottom and making stair steps up. 20 and 50 were flat he made a low risk entry and found his FAT CITY leg up that made W form on weekly. God it feels good to follow the MASTER foot steps. Strat tell me to back off if I have followed you too close.
Thanks.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: simeurjpy.gif Size: 24 KB
  • #2,375
  • Edited 6:54pm Apr 24, 2009 6:42pm | Edited 6:54pm
Quoting patrick25
Hi Rgrace,

EURJPY:

Sure it is tradeable. Here what I see: Although the Big Boss is trending down but look at the Boss she is telling us something. She made double bottom and forming W form. Remember the Boss turns before the Big Boss.

I analysis Strat's EURJPY trade last time he called FAT CITY. At that time the Boss just made double bottom and daily was bottom and making stair steps up. 20 and 50 were flat he made a low risk entry and found his FAT CITY leg up that made W form on weekly. God it feels good to follow the MASTER foot steps....
Still too risky for me. Monthly and weekly do not agree. It probably is tradeable, just not for me at this point in my trading career.

Thanks for your input, I do see similarities. But as Strat said, do as he says not as he does. Also, since this would be a trade off the weekly, Daily should not come into play. Since the Weekly is the daily BOSS, not the other way around. At least that is the way I understand it. If I were further along the path of learning this may would be one I would jump on and ride a while. Too many things going on for my limited experience.
  • #2,376
  • Apr 24, 2009 6:54pm Apr 24, 2009 6:54pm
Quoting rgrace
Still too risky for me. Monthly and weekly do not agree. It probably is tradeable, just not for me at this point in my trading career.

Thanks for your input, I do see similarities. But as Strat said, do as he says not as he does. Also, since this would be a trade off the weekly, Daily should not come into play. Since the Weekly is the daily BOSS, not the other way around.
EurJpy is at a level that's been important many many times - switch to the Monthly and zoom out. You might not have an entry right now Rgrace but i will be looking at what happens around 130-131 and expecting a short although not predicting one

Sorry this is short but it's late!
  • #2,377
  • Apr 24, 2009 6:55pm Apr 24, 2009 6:55pm
Hi Rgrace,

I agree with you the Big Boss first then Boss but when you at the turning point, the Boss will give us signs before the Big Boss.
  • #2,378
  • Apr 24, 2009 7:04pm Apr 24, 2009 7:04pm
Rgrace,

I analysis Strat' trades just to see if I understand for myself the information behind the trades. Of course, I will not do what he does, only what he tell.
When I said tradable I mean the whole picture.
  • #2,379
  • Apr 24, 2009 9:12pm Apr 24, 2009 9:12pm
Quoting strat
A lemon entry my dear Watson!
I think I am thankful. Thanks Sherlock.
  • #2,380
  • Apr 24, 2009 9:48pm Apr 24, 2009 9:48pm
Hey Strat,

I just finished reading your merchant wanker story again.
If you are ready to reveal your Yen story, I'd love to hear it.
You also got me thinking about your journey and how you wound up where you are now. Obviously you went through some serious shizit. How did you arrive at your current Holmesian methods? How many people did you listen to before you started thinking for yourself?
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