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No Brainer Trades

  • #11,101
  • Apr 24, 2009 6:08am Apr 24, 2009 6:08am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
I'm looking for consolidation on this up to a 150point fade from wherever the high ends up, if it wants to crawl higher today. My most likely suspect at this point is 1.3300 - 1.3335 area, just based on an overall strong point of control in the zone. The entire area is swimming with resistance. 1.3300 double zeros and resistance, the 50% retracement at 1.3311 or so, and 1.3335 proving itself over and over again. We'll see.

I'm pretty sure some of you guys have pointed out these areas already.

That is, if it wants to go higher. I already tried...
Ulimately, maybe head into the mid 34's before seeing a bigger move. My next sell would only be shorter term. I dont think I would hold onto it and just 'let it go' unless we saw a move into these higher areas.

If it takes out the low 33's, immediately, then you'll probably find me sitting on the sidelines until we get higher up there.

Days like this though, just buy pullbacks. Dont be afraid. You got a really good chance of being right.
  • #11,102
  • Apr 24, 2009 6:12am Apr 24, 2009 6:12am
AUDJPY 6900 looked for a reversal at London open - didn't take it and it made 80+.

AUDUSD 7192 only yielded +30

EURUSD 13269 missed it

USDCAD 12179 closed at b/e

USDCHF 11449 -50 went against the news

USDJPY 9658 +30
  • #11,103
  • Apr 24, 2009 6:16am Apr 24, 2009 6:16am
Quoting RedCabbage
AUDJPY 6900 looked for a reversal at London open - didn't take it and it made 80+.

AUDUSD 7192 only yielded +30

EURUSD 13269 missed it

USDCAD 12179 closed at b/e

USDCHF 11449 -50 went against the news

USDJPY 9658 +30
good eye. you're on the ball .
  • #11,104
  • Apr 24, 2009 6:54am Apr 24, 2009 6:54am
Quoting RedCabbage
One to note for another day

12180-12152

RBS
TF
61
R
S

Entry around 12180 closed at b/e no market concensus.

Now having a look from back of the range - s/l at b/e again.
  • #11,105
  • Apr 24, 2009 7:08am Apr 24, 2009 7:08am
Billy Ray

When EURUSD came off 13269 I considered my entry missed.

Do you have a method for deciding whether a level is still valid so that if we get a revisit in a short time, as has occurred here, you still have confidence to go short?
  • #11,106
  • Apr 24, 2009 8:03am Apr 24, 2009 8:03am
Quoting RedCabbage
Entry around 12180 closed at b/e no market concensus.

Now having a look from back of the range - s/l at b/e again.
+30

Silly session now so I'm off to do something else.
  • #11,107
  • Edited 8:50am Apr 24, 2009 8:36am | Edited 8:50am
As planned, took half profit @ 4608 for +101 pips. Stopped out other half @ +50 pips on a trailing stop.

Overall profit: +150 pips.

Out for now.

Looking for a close above 4823 level today as possible confirmation of a range breakout. Major level where resistance may become support on weekly chart.

Previous attempts to break above this level failed and closed back down below.



Will look to go long if it closes above.
  • #11,108
  • Apr 24, 2009 11:57am Apr 24, 2009 11:57am
Quoting RedCabbage
Billy Ray

When EURUSD came off 13269 I considered my entry missed.

Do you have a method for deciding whether a level is still valid so that if we get a revisit in a short time, as has occurred here, you still have confidence to go short?
BRV will probably have a better answer, but I look to price action on smaller time frames. Sometimes you will see nice double-tops and those sorts of moves on a 5M chart that would be nearly indistinguishable on a 1H chart.
  • #11,109
  • Apr 24, 2009 3:07pm Apr 24, 2009 3:07pm
Quoting seattlerust
Hi Darkness,

I had the same trade. I think it was a valid setup; prior S/R, TL, near the Figure, 50% retracement, price had exceeded its ATR, Space, Time Frame, etc. Many of the checkmarks from Red Cabbage were met.

The only flaw, IMWO, if there was one, was the weakness of the dollar. Dollar Futures were down considerably and had been for hours. But one can ALWAYS find reasons NOT to trade almost any setup. So one must be aware of things like that, and if they are compelling, then either stand aside or perhaps reduce the trade size or risk...
Nice to see a Pacific NW trader in here. I'm in Portland.

After further analysis and some of the comments by more experienced guys here, I arrived at conclusion that I made an error of not having another resistance level/line on my chart @ 1.3088 where it did a good size retracement which really lowered the probability of another good retracement slightly further up where I took the short.

20pips is definitely a bit tight, i'll be adjusting that in future trades.

I did end up playing the breakout after the retracement at 1.3112 and diagonal trendline, it then retraced right back to 50% fib line and went for good run.

This is the best and most valuable FX thread i've come across. You guys are great,thank you for sharing your wisdom, knowledge and experience.

Hope everyone has a great weekend!

p.s. i missed a great short on EG . hope someone here took advantage of that opportunity.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #11,110
  • Apr 24, 2009 3:12pm Apr 24, 2009 3:12pm
Just got home from my friday night out and was looking at the charts and had a revelation... all the support and resistance levels on the euro are in fact taken from the weekly and monthly reference points. Check it out for yourselves...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur.gif Size: 22 KB
  • #11,111
  • Apr 25, 2009 12:27am Apr 25, 2009 12:27am
Quoting Ferrari
Just got home from my friday night out and was looking at the charts and had a revelation... all the support and resistance levels on the euro are in fact taken from the weekly and monthly reference points. Check it out for yourselves...

Attachment
Maybe I'm over simplifying this, or missing something, but I believe you should be doing that anyway. On my charts, I mark the major lines on weekly with a thick line, and then the same on an daily with a normal line. You do these, because the longer TFs have much more weight than the lower-TFs.

Then, on a daily basis I am looking for smaller TF SRs (4 and 1hour) for the trades, and bring it all together (among the other parts).
  • #11,112
  • Apr 25, 2009 6:30am Apr 25, 2009 6:30am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Found this on twitter, actually. Just look past the guy doing the interviewing but Mark Douglas is Mark Douglas. Happy Thursday everyone.

http://www.4shared.com/file/96740657...er_Market.html

.
I just watched this BRV .... great stuff.

Many thanks

WG
  • #11,113
  • Apr 25, 2009 6:35pm Apr 25, 2009 6:35pm
Quoting RedCabbage
The 80ish pip reaction fromm 13089 will have reduced the number of sellers at the next level.

A full explanation is in BRV's pdf which can be accessed from post 1.

Aaargh, I feel like an idiot. I remembered reading in the PDF that you want good spacing between corrections, I just didn't recognize that concept in what you were saying but now I do. Thanks for clearing it up for me.
  • #11,114
  • Edited 11:35pm Apr 26, 2009 9:22pm | Edited 11:35pm
I have my eye on the EUR/USD around the 1.31 figure, previous support & resistance + the 50% fib of the recent run up to 1.33

As always, input & "IMO" is plenty welcome

*Sorry for the large chart...if we would like to resize, let me know*

http://i24.photobucket.com/albums/c2...ril26small.jpg
  • #11,115
  • Apr 26, 2009 11:15pm Apr 26, 2009 11:15pm
Yes, please resize.
  • #11,116
  • Apr 26, 2009 11:35pm Apr 26, 2009 11:35pm
Quoting kiwi_trader
Yes, please resize.
Done
  • #11,117
  • Apr 27, 2009 2:09am Apr 27, 2009 2:09am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
I'm looking for consolidation on this up to a 150point fade from wherever the high ends up, if it wants to crawl higher today. My most likely suspect at this point is 1.3300 - 1.3335 area, just based on an overall strong point of control in the zone. The entire area is swimming with resistance. 1.3300 double zeros and resistance, the 50% retracement at 1.3311 or so, and 1.3335 proving itself over and over again. We'll see.

I'm pretty sure some of you guys have pointed out these areas already.

That is, if it wants to go higher. I already...
Very nice call, especially considering the market conditions on Friday.
  • #11,118
  • Apr 27, 2009 2:38am Apr 27, 2009 2:38am
Quoting smittens4212
BRV will probably have a better answer, but I look to price action on smaller time frames. Sometimes you will see nice double-tops and those sorts of moves on a 5M chart that would be nearly indistinguishable on a 1H chart.
Thanks Smittens, I do use 15m and 5m PA, I guess I'll have to work harder at it!
  • #11,119
  • Apr 27, 2009 8:40am Apr 27, 2009 8:40am
Is the thread really this slow this morning? Why? Where is everyone? This makes me nervous; I must be missing something.
  • #11,120
  • Apr 27, 2009 9:35am Apr 27, 2009 9:35am
Hi seattlerust. The charts are too slow for me and as it is late here I will not be trading. Good luck for the rest of your day.
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