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Jacko's Forex House of Pleasure and Pain

  • #7,161
  • Apr 23, 2009 10:11pm Apr 23, 2009 10:11pm
It would seem that the confluence of the 50 Fibo and the downward weekly trendline may give an appropriate short level. I believe that is in the neighborhood of Jacko's target from what I read. Like many here I am lightly long at the moment. One could paint a scenario around the 38 at 3200 as well, however. Will be looking for a signal in those areas to reverse.
  • #7,162
  • Apr 24, 2009 1:16am Apr 24, 2009 1:16am
Quoting Alexandra
It would seem that the confluence of the 50 Fibo and the downward weekly trendline may give an appropriate short level. I believe that is in the neighborhood of Jacko's target from what I read. Like many here I am lightly long at the moment. One could paint a scenario around the 38 at 3200 as well, however. Will be looking for a signal in those areas to reverse.
once 50 fib was taken 3200 was exposed
but if using jackos method you will still be in the trade even if we see 3200.
it can also serve as an opportunity to add your shorts.
if 100 sl is hit you put AH at the same spot and wait but i doubt it will move significantly past 1.32(infact fib is at 1.3199)
Some drink at the fountain of knowledge. Others just gargle !
  • #7,163
  • Apr 24, 2009 2:45am Apr 24, 2009 2:45am
Quoting Numerovi
Bez3000 - 5 or 6 trades is the new "normal" for my trading. I was trading much more frequently but now I have fewer trades that are much more thought out. Jacko is correct, this is truly a thinking man's game. This is not like sales or other professions. In sales, you can dig your way out of a jam with activity, in trading, you'll just dig your own grave. A few well placed trades that have a high probability of success is all you need to succeed.

That win average is the average of some shorter term trades with my longer terms trades. I try to...
Thanks for taking the time to post this. Can i ask are you sticking to Jacko's rules exactley and are you only trading EUR/USD?
Thanks in advance.
  • #7,164
  • Edited 4:24am Apr 24, 2009 4:05am | Edited 4:24am
Quoting plan-b
once 50 fib was taken 3200 was exposed
but if using jackos method you will still be in the trade even if we see 3200.
it can also serve as an opportunity to add your shorts.
if 100 sl is hit you put AH at the same spot and wait but i doubt it will move significantly past 1.32(infact fib is at 1.3199)

No reason to reverse yet--still holding long until I see some evidence of a change in sentiment. From here to 3400 looks worth watching closely. The R/R for shorts is certainly more appealing now though. I have the weekly 50 fib target at 1.33. The monthlies to my eye, however, could negate the short picture above 1.35. Now we are right where we started the month on that view.
  • #7,165
  • Apr 24, 2009 4:12am Apr 24, 2009 4:12am
Well.....news played a part (as expected) in the weakening of the USD...now let's see if it will drop and by how much - I've been gradually moving my pending sell order to follow price and currently have it at 1.3200 under the H1 TL. Now it's just a matter of how far it will fall, I see a first major area of possible support at 3130-3150 area on H4 (confluence of monthly and weekly pivot with a TL) as well as a SMA 20 on the daily - though a further weakening of USD with homes sales numbers due out is very feasible...which would give a higher sell price...on H4 I have the .50 fib at 1.3310 thus 13300 (nice round number) another problem is that it's friday...so...we'll see how it plays out...I may even cancel the trade as I don't hold positions over the weekends..far too risky for my tastes. o
Nihil inimicus quam sibi ipse Marcus Tullius Cicero
  • #7,166
  • Apr 24, 2009 10:19am Apr 24, 2009 10:19am
I can see people are drawing fibs from different levels and coming up with different 50% levels.

Fib experts claim that it is not subjective and everyone must have it drawn the same way. They also agree that the fib drawn for the latest wave is the most important and all users must objectively identify the same starting point for it. (However, for clustering different starting points may be chosen from previous waves where retracements less than 38% may be ignored)

Now I can see, some here have drawn fib starting from 1.3390 to 1.2885(ignoring the 3 candle retracement at 1.3145 to 1.3265 which was exactly 50%, why?).

Whereas others (small minority), started their current fib from 1.3265 (again why?).

For trading Jacko's system... , which one is considered more valid, and why?

Or let me ask this way (if Jacko can answer that will be great), which price point would be Jacko's starting point for the fib and where would be 50%?retracement?

Homer
  • #7,167
  • Apr 24, 2009 11:36am Apr 24, 2009 11:36am
I'm fascinated by this discussion - it has taken forever to read it. Kudos Jacko. Kudos.

But I'm also stuck trying to understand the whys and wherefores of Fib placement.

Where do you think they should be placed?
  • #7,168
  • Apr 24, 2009 12:05pm Apr 24, 2009 12:05pm
good point....personally i now use an automated for most but will on occasion draw my own for a recent swing. the other issue is - are we all on the same TF? I'll leave the different feed issue aside as I feel the diferences should be minimal....
Nihil inimicus quam sibi ipse Marcus Tullius Cicero
  • #7,169
  • Apr 24, 2009 12:49pm Apr 24, 2009 12:49pm
1.33 on the dot for the moment....likely a retest will present itself one would think next week.
  • #7,170
  • Apr 24, 2009 12:57pm Apr 24, 2009 12:57pm
Pls forgive the newbie question, but what do you use to automate Fib placement?
  • #7,171
  • Apr 24, 2009 1:16pm Apr 24, 2009 1:16pm
Quoting GriffCo
You think? Down trend since march 19th. It's right at the 50%fib right now
Loving my longs
  • #7,172
  • Apr 24, 2009 1:43pm Apr 24, 2009 1:43pm
Quoting Homer
For trading Jacko's system... , which one is considered more valid, and why?
Homer, I think it is discretionary because it depends on the time-frame you use most often.

By using a Daily time frame, one could have drawn his/her fibs from the high of 1.3737 to a low of 1.2885. This would bring the 50% to 1.3311, which is close to 1.33 (rounder). This is good. The closer your 50% is to rounders, the stronger the 50% is.

However, by using the H4 time frame, one could have drawn his/her fibs from the high of 1.3391 to the low of 1.2885. This would bring the 50% to 1.3139, which is close to 1.3150 (mid-rounder).

Trend lines also play a huge factor in this discussion as do S/R levels. By my Daily trend line, the line is a bit higher than the Daily 50%. However, by my H4 trend line, the line was matched well with the H4 50%.

Both are valid, and both work well.

Superdezign, fxtrader29 and a few others rode this thing long. Aggressive, but it worked out in their favor. Good job!
  • #7,173
  • Apr 24, 2009 2:03pm Apr 24, 2009 2:03pm
for those asking about the automated fibo's

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=75515

from memory it's the same one I have.

Cheers
Nihil inimicus quam sibi ipse Marcus Tullius Cicero
  • #7,174
  • Apr 24, 2009 2:30pm Apr 24, 2009 2:30pm
well this thread is like heaven for newbie like me! =)
  • #7,175
  • Edited 5:38pm Apr 24, 2009 5:31pm | Edited 5:38pm
Thanks hans365, yes, I should have mentioned timeframes i.e. 4H. I have more specific questions/comments in blue (below quoted text). Anyone can reply.

[quote=hans356;2693815]Homer, I think it is discretionary because it depends on the time-frame you use most often.

Agree, fibs are subjective if the timeframe is different. However assuming a fixed timeframe for this purpose (and let's say 4H), the fib should be same i.e. starting point for latest wave.

.....

However, by using the H4 time frame, one could have drawn his/her fibs from the high of 1.3391 to the low of 1.2885. This would bring the 50% to 1.3139, which is close to 1.3150 (mid-rounder).

That's exactly what my question is. Why did you ignore 3 candle retracement of this wave from 1.3145 to 1.3265 which is exactly 50%. Was it because low number candles for the retracement? This is the most important point. I can understand a retracement being less than 38% to be ignored, but can't fathom why a retracement of 50% is completely ignored by most traders? [/quote]
  • #7,176
  • Apr 24, 2009 6:44pm Apr 24, 2009 6:44pm
Hi

Are these fibs on my chart drawn correctly? Thank You
Attached Image
  • #7,177
  • Apr 24, 2009 7:04pm Apr 24, 2009 7:04pm
Quote
Agree, fibs are subjective if the timeframe is different. However assuming a fixed timeframe for this purpose (and let's say 4H), the fib should be same i.e. starting point for latest wave.
Yes, they should be the same, in my mind. I draw my fibs based on the most recent HIGH / LOW . . . or LOW / HIGH . . . dependent, of course, on which way the market is headed.

Quote
That's exactly what my question is. Why did you ignore 3 candle retracement of this wave from 1.3145 to 1.3265 which is exactly 50%. Was it because low number candles for the retracement? This is the most important point. I can understand a retracement being less than 38% to be ignored, but can't fathom why a retracement of 50% is completely ignored by most traders?
This is what I am understanding by your comment (see attachment below).

Yes, this was a valid fib level and could have been shorted last Thursday.

With that being said, the high of 1.3268 was not the high of the wave, in my mind. Therefore, when I drew the latter fib from 1.3391 to 1.2887, it encompassed the entire wave, not necessarily a portion of it.

Nonetheless, I could be wayyyyyyyyyy wrong. Furthermore, I could be COMPLETELY misunderstanding what you're even asking.

Sorry, Homer, I hope this helps.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur, 0987.gif Size: 8 KB
  • #7,178
  • Edited 7:29pm Apr 24, 2009 7:25pm | Edited 7:29pm
Thanks hans365, please see my comments in blue below:

Quoting hans356
This is what I am understanding by your comment (see attachment below).

Homer: Yes your chart is spot on, thanks for the taking the time to put it up.

Yes, this was a valid fib level and could have been shorted last Thursday.

With that being said, the high of 1.3268 was not the high of the wave, in my mind.

Homer: What do you mean by "high of the wave"?
Are you not considering it high of the wave (in the down trend) due to small number of candles (i.e. 3)? And if so, what is your criteria to consider the high of the wave so it could be used as starting point for subsequent fib.

And you are more help than I could find elsewhere on the google
  • #7,179
  • Apr 24, 2009 7:35pm Apr 24, 2009 7:35pm
Quoting Coke Can
Hi

Are these fibs on my chart drawn correctly? Thank You
I would have drawn the fib exactly like that.
  • #7,180
  • Edited 9:05pm Apr 24, 2009 8:45pm | Edited 9:05pm
Homer, I have outlined your three questions below and answered them according to my naivete.

Quote
1. What do you mean by "high of the wave"?

2. Are you not considering it high of the wave (in the down trend) due to small number of candles (i.e. 3)?

3. And if so, what is your criteria to consider the high of the wave so it could be used as starting point for subsequent fib?
1. My apologies. I mean to say the top (or high) of the trend. I am not a "wave" trader nor do I practice Elliot Wave Theory. Not sure if this is what you were meaning by it. But my verbiage was a bit unclear. Sorry. I simply meant the trend, not the wave.

2. No, I do not consider 1.3268 the high of the trend. This was, more or less, a VERY small retracement within the larger H4 trend of 1.3391 to 1.2887. And no it was not based on the small number of candles. It was simply based on the small amount of movement that did not make it the trend high.

Nonetheless, as stated above, this little retracement could have been shorted for a nice gain. And I'm sure many did exactly that.

3. This is somewhat of a difficult one to answer. (Well, at least for me.) In this particular situation, for me to consider the 1.3268 level the high of the trend, it would have had to retrace to far greater heights than 50%. It may have had to retrace to somehow near 1.3350. But only in this particular situation, not in all situations . . . would I consider a large retracement the high of the trend.

I guess it's just a gut feeling, for lack of a better term, coupled with experience. I am not one to talk "experience," per se. I was just introduced to Jacko's "method" in November of last year. But practice, practice, practice, more than anything else, has helped me learn and grasp (at least an inkling) of what Jacko is teaching and his mindset behind taking a particular trade.

His method is simple, indeed. But the mindset behind the method . . . that's another story. He's an ingenious man!!! And the reason he is ingenious is because he is common sense smart and experienced . . . among many other things. (Wait! I don't want to come off as knowing the man. I don't. But ya get a grasp for who someone is when they do what they do. Call it karma, call it whatever you'd like. But there are over 1.2 million views of this thread!!!)

I hope this helps, Homer. Keep up the studies and the homework. You're doing well!!!
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