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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #28,021
  • Apr 24, 2009 10:30am Apr 24, 2009 10:30am
One last thing, hang with me Alter

Ok now when a pinbar sits at such a swing low, what happens is the s/r levels that are normally more minimal now come into effect much quicker. Lack of space creates this problem(for the most part). So what happens is we now need to look to close bar highs and lows for possible turning points to clear. If you look to the left the bar high which sits at 1.5950 is where price hits and stalls. Being so close to our pin b/c it is at that direct swing low. So if one wants to trade this still(and of course that is up to you), the best thing would be to place your order under that. To me though, when that next day was such a large bullish bar, that is when it is best to close out your order. BUt now we cans ee if price clears the 5950 level the next set of lows I marked off in blue.

I hope this clears up some things, maybe not though

Mike
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  • #28,022
  • Apr 24, 2009 10:38am Apr 24, 2009 10:38am
Quoting mbqb11
Hey Jim

The pinbar is part of the swing high. As opposed to the eur/cad which was at a swing low. You will have both major and minor swing points. On usd/cad I drew a chart and we can see these swing points. The more space a swing point creates away from price the more major and obvious it becomes(think pinbar at swing high open space). The usd/cad was a much more clean trade. It was on the pullback to a very large trendline, off a major round number PPZ.

Also note eur/cad how low down on a swing low it is. This is the number 1 trouble sign...
Awesome Post Mike, Thanks! That helped me a ton with understanding this trade. How often do you think a trade like this USD/CAD shows up. I was pretty frustrated that I missed it.
"Luck favors the prepared mind"
  • #28,023
  • Apr 24, 2009 10:41am Apr 24, 2009 10:41am
Quoting jpa0827
Awesome Post Mike, Thanks! That helped me a ton with understanding this trade. How often do you think a trade like this USD/CAD shows up. I was pretty frustrated that I missed it.
I can't give you a timeline really. The market gives you what it gives you. Some months they are breakout style trades, other they are massive pins at swing lows/highs. Basically the best is to learn the ins and outs of location/support/resistance/PA and then be adaptable to the different situations. While each situation is independent of one and another in the end the concepts are all pulled from the same place. Obviously the USD/cad was a unique situation that has taken awhile to develop as the consolidation took place for quite some time. But there is always a pair consolidating, and always a pair moving. So you can always pick and choose your battles

Mike
  • #28,024
  • Apr 24, 2009 10:42am Apr 24, 2009 10:42am
Mike your patience is amazing!
  • #28,025
  • Apr 24, 2009 10:50am Apr 24, 2009 10:50am
Quoting mbqb11
I can't give you a timeline really. The market gives you what it gives you. Some months they are breakout style trades, other they are massive pins at swing lows/highs. Basically the best is to learn the ins and outs of location/support/resistance/PA and then be adaptable to the different situations. While each situation is independent of one and another in the end the concepts are all pulled from the same place. Obviously the USD/cad was a unique situation that has taken awhile to develop as the consolidation took place for quite some time. But...
Got it, as always, your advice is golden.
"Luck favors the prepared mind"
  • #28,026
  • Apr 24, 2009 11:07am Apr 24, 2009 11:07am
Quoting mbqb11
Hey Alter

I can certainly understand the no trade on usd/cad, I only took it on the 4hr and the daily just happened to do what it did.

As for eur/cad, even though it was a strong PPZ we sould wait for the ones off strong PPZ that create space and at a swing high....
Ok, MIke I thought there is enough space so my target was at the blue area on your chart. I didn't consider 1 bar high as a potential trouble zone as I can find some bar highs on any trade. I mean there are always some bars on the left side.
I entered on the brake of the PIN. We had IB formed next day. I though , ok PIN is still valid as the high of the bar was not broken. Later during the day news was released that triggered my order. But normally I dont pay attention to news unless it is interest rate related.
  • #28,027
  • Apr 24, 2009 11:10am Apr 24, 2009 11:10am
Quoting alter
Ok, MIke I thought there is enough space so my target was at the blue area on your chart. I didn't consider 1 bar high as a potential trouble zone as I can find some bar highs on any trade. I mean there are always some bars on the left side.
I entered on the brake of the PIN. We had IB formed next day. I though , ok PIN is still valid as the high of the bar was not broken. Later during the day news was released that triggered my order. But normally I dont pay attention to news unless it is interest rate related.
Hey Alter

I understand, my only point is that when you trade at a swing low like this, that those bar highs lows, become a much bigger concern. So my thing would be to protect oneself by either dropping the order if the next bar doesn't break(ie no momentum), or placing your order below that one high. Now of course what is done is done, but hopefully you can see that price did in the end do what we would have expected in that scenario. We trade and learn from our past trades, build our confidence on demo. It takes some time and is not easy.

Have a great weekend

Mike
  • #28,028
  • Apr 24, 2009 11:13am Apr 24, 2009 11:13am
Quoting mbqb11
Hey Jim

The pinbar is part of the swing high. As opposed to the eur/cad which was at a swing low. You will have both major and minor swing points. On usd/cad I drew a chart and we can see these swing points. The more space a swing point creates away from price the more major and obvious it becomes(think pinbar at swing high open space). The usd/cad was a much more clean trade. It was on the pullback to a very large trendline, off a major round number PPZ.

Also note eur/cad how low down on a swing low it is. This is the number 1 trouble sign...
Hey Mike, Is that pin bar video on James16 site or somewhere else? Can't find it
"Luck favors the prepared mind"
  • #28,029
  • Apr 24, 2009 11:16am Apr 24, 2009 11:16am
Thank you Mike, I will try to do something with my entries.
Have a great weekend too
alter
  • #28,030
  • Apr 24, 2009 11:18am Apr 24, 2009 11:18am
I'm a happy fella! Just got out of U/C for 240 pips (it reversed a little while ago and took out a tight-ish stop of 40 pips) I put my entry just below the low of the pin on the 21st with a stop just above the bar on the 22nd. It didn't get triggered on the 22nd but was triggered early yesterday I think and after a slightly worrying reversal for a while it headed down. Once the price was 40 pips up I moved the stop to BE and took profit on half the position - I then left well alone, with a happy result. Lesson learned! Demo trading as yet but that will sure help my monthly percentage.

It may now continue down, but who cares

Thanks guys for the ongoing advice and tutoring.

Have a great weekend everybody...
When in doubt, sit on your hands...
  • #28,031
  • Apr 24, 2009 11:22am Apr 24, 2009 11:22am
Hey Alter,

I been down that road. Don't try to over optimize your entries too much.
Some trades just don't work out no matter what you do.
Make sure those occasional loosers don't cloud you judgement on future trades.

That is the biggest problems new guys face!

Also when u place your stop DO NOT place it too close to the top of the pin bar.

a lot of times price will pierce through by a few pips and then nose dive straight down.

It is better to put on a smaller lot size but give it more room to breath just to make sure the trade really is not good if the top is broken.
  • #28,032
  • Apr 24, 2009 1:18pm Apr 24, 2009 1:18pm
daily ppz and fib confluence.

I didn't want to post this trade earlier so any potential 'takers' won't get burnt, should cable keep on marching higher. Besides it's Friday and almost every one has gone home (market not very liquid).
It did worked nicely however.
.
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  • #28,033
  • Apr 24, 2009 1:19pm Apr 24, 2009 1:19pm
Quoting Mr Smith
Mike your patience is amazing!
That's because he doesn't have any kids....
(... not counting us, here on the forum)
  • #28,034
  • Apr 24, 2009 1:21pm Apr 24, 2009 1:21pm
This was my anaysis of the Eur/Cad pin bar, it was a minor retracement, if it had retraced to 50 then it would have stood a better chance, it is also heading into price area than had lots of bar low highs and a 365 ema. Not enough room to move imho. I am having great success with a few weekly PPZs the fib and 365/150 ema's and then looking at close proximity bar high/lows to see where price might stall. Alter you are in the best place to learn this stuff quickly, just dont get frustrated with the method it works.
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Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
  • #28,035
  • Edited 1:40pm Apr 24, 2009 1:24pm | Edited 1:40pm
Quoting supremeChaos
by the way, is eur back again near the bargain levels? let's see..
this was my insight about 4.5 days ago, when eur$ was exactly around 1.2955-1.2990.
UPDATE: earlier, eur$ has reached the 1.33 area.
GOOD Job to all those who were able to trade this.
Won't post a chart as several eur$ charts were already posted.


Meanwhile, here is a not-so-often posted chart (& a 1st post for me of) USDSEK.
This trade was on demo as i don't have this pair available w/ my broker, & even if i did have it, i probably would not have traded it (i'm trying to restrain my aggressiveness to trade any pair for now & instead exercise & inculcate ultra supreme patience & discipline unto myself) as i try to trade, for now, only the majors & other "usual pairs"..
Seeing the huge H4 BEOB (rejection via 8.70), my Entry was fairly late, via H1 "minor" BEOB (not shown; candle/bar w/ blue arrow, price@blue line on this H4 chart); I trailed stops along the way, about 3-4 times. Exited manually about 2 hours earlier (candle/bar w/ blue X-mark, price@blue line), after price bounced prior reaching my 8.050 initial "minor" target (Daily 150SMA; 7.90-8.20 is a traffic/congestion area). i exited here w/ all 0.50Lots (have been on a mini account for some time now) so i was quite happy (i imagined this was a REAL trade, price had made a great run, plus it's a weekend, so i did not want to give a lot of my profits back &therefore i exited; i think this was my 1st $SEK Trade).
As u can see on the chart, i still have another trade open (just 0.1 lot)
Hope some of u caught it on a live account
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  • #28,036
  • Apr 24, 2009 1:32pm Apr 24, 2009 1:32pm
Quoting raczekfx
daily ppz and fib confluence.

I didn't want to post this trade earlier so any potential 'takers' won't get burnt, should cable keep on marching higher. Besides it's Friday and almost every one has gone home (market not very liquid).
It did worked nicely however.
.
.... the lines & fib on your chart is almost 100% similar to mine. Glad to have "confluence" w/ someone like the White-Tailed Eagle's chart.
Adds a great deal of confidence.
  • #28,037
  • Apr 24, 2009 2:09pm Apr 24, 2009 2:09pm
Quoting raczekfx
That's because he doesn't have any kids....
(... not counting us, here on the forum)



ok yanks and sox fans know where I'm off too

have a great weekend all

Mike
  • #28,038
  • Apr 24, 2009 5:51pm Apr 24, 2009 5:51pm
Quoting alter
Difference is in the result. If both are positive , both would be nice trades to take. As EURCAD was not, I see that we can always find reasons why the setup was not so good to take. After the fact of course.
Thank you for your opinion.
I apologize for being short with you alter. But your posts came across to me as being contentious for no reason. It also told me you haven't read the Thread.

If you had read the Thread you would know that I am one of few who post many setups before the fact and even live trades, (as they are happening). Just to show how this method works, when ideal conditions are met.

I understand the frustration of learning this method all to well. And I should have taken that into account when reading your posts, but I didn't.
Again I apologize if I came across badly.

Jim
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #28,039
  • Edited 6:20pm Apr 24, 2009 6:02pm | Edited 6:20pm
Quoting mbqb11
Hey Jim

The pinbar is part of the swing high. As opposed to the eur/cad which was at a swing low. You will have both major and minor swing points. On usd/cad I drew a chart and we can see these swing points. The more space a swing point creates away from price the more major and obvious it becomes(think pinbar at swing high open space). The usd/cad was a much more clean trade. It was on the pullback to a very large trendline, off a major round number PPZ.

Also note eur/cad how low down on a swing low it is. This is the number 1 trouble sign...
Quoting mbqb11
One last thing, hang with me Alter

Ok now when a pinbar sits at such a swing low, what happens is the s/r levels that are normally more minimal now come into effect much quicker. Lack of space creates this problem(for the most part). So what happens is we now need to look to close bar highs and lows for possible turning points to clear. If you look to the left the bar high which sits at 1.5950 is where price hits and stalls. Being so close to our pin b/c it is at that direct swing low. So if one wants to trade this still(and of course that is up to you), the best thing would be to place your order under that. To me though, when that next day was such a large bullish bar, that is when it is best to close out your order. BUt now we cans ee if price clears the 5950 level the next set of lows I marked off in blue.

I hope this clears up some things, maybe not though

Mike
Leave it to Mike to show the way. I could have never presented this clear of a picture distinguishing the difference between the Cad and E/C, even with charts. Simply great as always. wow

Jim
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #28,040
  • Edited Apr 25, 2009 1:29am Apr 24, 2009 6:11pm | Edited Apr 25, 2009 1:29am
Quoting jarroo
Hey jon.

I like the 1.2100, its such a clear defined PPZ since Oct. 2008.
Yes, the 1.2200 has some strong Resistence in recent weeks, Price did just break it which is a good sign that we may have more on the table.

Trading sure is easier when you have banked some good pips and the stop loss is at breakeven.
I misspoke here, I meant to say . . the 1.2200 had some strong Support in recent weeks, . .
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
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