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  • #2,341
  • Edited 6:58pm Apr 23, 2009 6:47pm | Edited 6:58pm
Quoting Naws
No thanks Strat, even if I had BEEB or BUEB on my charts, those bars alone don't give enough reason to trade

Especially when they have all respected the resistance area above (I say all, but I have only looked at a couple of the yen pairs). Looking for shooting stars and hammers ONLY at Support or resistance. Thanks for the tips Strat. But no thanks
  • #2,342
  • Apr 23, 2009 8:45pm Apr 23, 2009 8:45pm
Hi Strat,

Thanks for the tips. I am afraid I am aldready in the trade for EURUSD.
These are why I took the risk.

The Big Boss is still consider in the up trend although she has been retraced and tested the strong support level 2600 for 6 months and also happened to be 78.6% retracement. The March candle swallowed Feb. candle.

The Boss is making higher low in the direction of big Boss and also above 365ema.

Daily, 2850-80 has been price pivot since 0ct-08 to Mar-09. Monday candle went down tested this level and closed above it. Wed candle went down tested the level again and closed above Monday closed, also 61.8% retracement. My entry 10 pips above Wed candle. I aldready moved my stop below today candle and that cuts my risk in half for this trade.
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  • #2,343
  • Apr 23, 2009 9:47pm Apr 23, 2009 9:47pm
Quoting patrick25
Hi Strat,

Thanks for the tips. I am afraid I am aldready in the trade for EURUSD.
These are why I took the risk.

The Big Boss is still consider in the up trend although she has been retraced and tested the strong support level 2600 for 6 months and also happened to be 78.6% retracement. The March candle swallowed Feb. candle.

The Boss is making higher low in the direction of big Boss and also above 365ema.

Daily, 2850-80 has been price pivot since 0ct-08 to Mar-09. Monday candle went down tested this level and closed above it. Wed candle...
Although it is making a higher low, it has also made a lower high. This means it is in a triangle, not a trend. It could be the start of a trend, or it could not. No one knows till it breaks.
I hope it works out for you, here are some things you might want to keep in mind though. It is about to run into the 20, BOSS 20, and I also have resistance at 1.3186ish. Plus the PSYCHO 1.3200. Price is also trapped between the 20 and 50. I also have a down trendline above that area, but by the time it makes it there you will be in profit by a couple hundred pips. And by the way, I am just trying to sharpen my technical skills, nothing against you. The BOSS and BIG BOSS are all showing pretty much the same thing, trend undecided. Trapped inside a triangle. I also see no price action to confirm this trade either way. But, like I said earlier, I hope it works out for you.
  • #2,344
  • Apr 23, 2009 9:57pm Apr 23, 2009 9:57pm
Quoting patrick25
Hi Strat,

Thanks for the tips. I am afraid I am aldready in the trade for EURUSD.
These are why I took the risk.

The Big Boss is still consider in the up trend although she has been retraced and tested the strong support level 2600 for 6 months and also happened to be 78.6% retracement. The March candle swallowed Feb. candle.

The Boss is making higher low in the direction of big Boss and also above 365ema.

Daily, 2850-80 has been price pivot since 0ct-08 to Mar-09. Monday candle went down tested this level and closed above it. Wed candle...
You are on a very, very slippery slope - BUYING in a confirmed downtrend! I'm going to let Baba G loose on you!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #2,345
  • Apr 23, 2009 10:00pm Apr 23, 2009 10:00pm
Strat posted some possibilities. Something to ponder, Now putting a ticket on those possibilities is another matter in itself...narrowing down the possibilties to the trade with the highest probability of the bunch..all things considered...Wow the daily has taking on a whole new dimension...Thanks Strat for opening my eyes to it.
  • #2,346
  • Apr 23, 2009 10:05pm Apr 23, 2009 10:05pm
Quoting Beachsitter
Strat posted some possibilities. Something to ponder, Now putting a ticket on those possibilities is another matter in itself...narrowing down the possibilties to the trade with the highest probability of the bunch..all things considered...Wow the daily has taking on a whole new dimension...Thanks Strat for opening my eyes to it.

I would suggest reading and understanding the entire thread before you take Strat's possibilities.
  • #2,347
  • Apr 23, 2009 10:24pm Apr 23, 2009 10:24pm
Quoting Beachsitter
Strat posted some possibilities. Something to ponder, Now putting a ticket on those possibilities is another matter in itself...narrowing down the possibilties to the trade with the highest probability of the bunch..all things considered...Wow the daily has taking on a whole new dimension...Thanks Strat for opening my eyes to it.
Did you read Nicola's post # 2336?
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #2,348
  • Apr 23, 2009 10:43pm Apr 23, 2009 10:43pm
Hi Strat and Rgrace,

Thank you for your inputs. Rgrace, don't worry about it. We are here to learn from Strat, and each other. It is all benifit for us on this thread. We don't see what Strat sees. I think the best we can do is put up the charts telling him what we think and see. He will point us in the right direction. Find out why he says the things he says. With this I am going to find out why he said "buying in the confirmed down trend". Strat, thanks for the homework.
  • #2,349
  • Edited 11:06pm Apr 23, 2009 11:01pm | Edited 11:06pm
Quoting strat
First and foremost, we most only trade the Daily within the context of the BOSS and BIG BOSS. Anytime you are unsure of direction start with the BIG BOSS, then work your way through to the BOSS and finally to the worker, the Daily, so let's do it.

BIG BOSS:
She is still in a downtrend BUT what do the last 4 bars tell you after the huge December down bar? Now zero in even closer - what is the April bar telling you in relation to the March bar?

BOSS:
She is under orders from her BIG BOSS and is also in a downtrend BUT, wait a minute, do I...
Ah......
I didn't catch it at first, but I kept at it.
I was stuck seeing prices moving sideways on the Daily (from Dec-now), but your March 10th observation made me see some light. Prices initially went up in Dec/Jan/Feb and then stopped going up (lower swing high on Feb 23). Then they stopped going down (swing low March 3rd). So now we wait to see if price continues up and makes a new swing high above the one on Feb 10. This could be a convergence of events, right? Break of downtrend, break of 1.7500 resistance and new high.
Attached is a chart in response to your Monthly question.
Do you ever categorize prices as moving sideways or is it always like Dr. Joe said?
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  • #2,350
  • Apr 23, 2009 11:34pm Apr 23, 2009 11:34pm
wow..ok wrong choice of words..they weren't possibilities and I know it was a test to see if people have their thinking caps on...Quick... with the read the entire thread line...Thanks strat you have turned my trading around... hope you keep the the thread positive and keep it from going into a terminal downtrend. There are always a few a holes whose job seems to be take it there. Happy Trading
  • #2,351
  • Edited Apr 24, 2009 12:11am Apr 23, 2009 11:53pm | Edited Apr 24, 2009 12:11am
Quoting strat
It won't complicate it BUT IT WILL MAKE YOU BROKE!

Just recently, you are making some VERY SILLY AND STUPID statements - are you full of something or smoking something or maybe both?
Woops, I guess I'll take it back! Back to lurking for me.

Seems I've lost my touch.
Bang.
  • #2,352
  • Apr 24, 2009 1:07am Apr 24, 2009 1:07am
Haven't checked other posts yet but my thoughts are in bold.

AUDJPY:
BUEB bouncing off support and TL BUT in 20-50 trap and nicely held down by 20. Looks like a re-test of 73.50. I'm getting my ATM card out!

Broke below trendline, below daily 20, above boss 20. Sideways action. I'm unsure which way it'll go.

AUDUSD:
BUEB bouncing off support. Retest of 0.7320?

I see the candle but don't have support there. Daily res at 7157 ish. I suppose a break above could see it up to 7320 but I ain't excited.

CADJPY:
Same as AUDJPY but re-test of psycho 83.00?

Between Boss 20 and Daily 20, trying to hold trendline and support. If it breaks above daily 20 then there is clear air above to 8250.

CHFJPY:
BUEB - same as other JPY pairs? Go for it guys!

Running into daily 20 but supported by Boss 20 and Daily 50. I have slight res at 8510 and with daily 20 above, its not for me.

EURJPY:
BUEB - same as other JPY pairs? Go for it guys!

Similar MAs setup to CHFJPY. Not for me.

EURUSD:
Beautiful strong green bar

Stright into daily 20 with Boss 20 above. Not for me.

GBPJPY:
Re-test of psycho 150?

Trapped between Boss/Daily 20 and daily 50. Also broken through my upward trendline. Last candle was an inside bar. I don't play these yet.

GBPUSD:
BUEB. Re-test of psycho 1.5000?

Between Boss 20 and Daily 20. Not clear here.

NZDJPY:
BUEB - Go for it guys!

No thanks.

NZDUSD:
BUEB - Go for it guys!

No thanks.

USDCAD:
BEEB - Go for it guys!

Saw potential short over the last 2 days but refused as it was not quite right. Nice bearish candle but I don't play these yet.

USDCHF:
BEEB - Go for it guys!

Was short from Monday. Closed for + pips at daily 50 and fib levels. Has gone further but should find support at Boss 20.

USDJPY:
Inverted hammer - she sent out a scouting party of buyers but they were sent back - time to re-group, get some more scouts and chase the girl guides (scouts).

Doji on my data between Boss 20 and 50, and Daily 20 and 50. Nothing here for me.

So there you go, these are just my mad ramblings but it has got me thinking before 7am. Not sure if this is one of Strat's infamous tests or not. But from my limited knowledge I don't see any setup that gets me excited. A few 'ifs' and 'maybes' but those aren't for me.
  • #2,353
  • Apr 24, 2009 1:14am Apr 24, 2009 1:14am
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Big Boss - hit 50% fib on retracment - need to wait for bar to close to assess it
Boss - hanging man with bearish confirmation in following bar - need to wait for bar to close and confirm
Daily - BEOB followed by 3 IB - IB broke south, but BEOB still not in play

trend is down

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  • #2,354
  • Apr 24, 2009 1:51am Apr 24, 2009 1:51am
Quoting shoestring
AUDUSD, .7200 has been strong SR for 20 years.
Any thoughts?
Can 0.7300 be a better S/R line? Please have a look at the line chart, too.
  • #2,355
  • Apr 24, 2009 2:43am Apr 24, 2009 2:43am
Quoting Bloom

AUDJPY:


Broke below trendline, below daily 20, above boss 20. Sideways action. I'm unsure which way it'll go.
As long as 67.50 holds, trend is up. Look where Boss 20 stands. And my trendline is @67.69 today. Although the recent move reversed @73.50, 71.50 is more important, IMO.
  • #2,356
  • Apr 24, 2009 2:50am Apr 24, 2009 2:50am
Quoting Blackeagle
As long as 67.50 holds, trend is up. Look where Boss 20 stands. And my trendline is @67.69 today. Although the recent move reversed @73.50, 71.50 is more important, IMO.
I was drawing my trendline through the close price rather than the wicks. If I use the wicks I get a similar trendline level to you. So do you use the low/highs or the closes for your trendlines?

Thanks
  • #2,357
  • Apr 24, 2009 3:29am Apr 24, 2009 3:29am
Quoting Bloom
I was drawing my trendline through the close price rather than the wicks. If I use the wicks I get a similar trendline level to you. So do you use the low/highs or the closes for your trendlines?

Thanks
I have drawn TL on line chart, so connected 2/2 close to 2/17 close which are important swing lows, IMO (where we have S/R lines as well).
  • #2,358
  • Apr 24, 2009 5:45am Apr 24, 2009 5:45am
Quoting strat
A few more pointers, Paul:
[font=Trebuchet MS, sans-serif][color=Blue][b][color=Red]NO, NO, NO - NOT EVER! This is where I...


A few more pointers, Paul:

""2. It has formed in a daily tf down trend""
How do you come up with this?
Start at March 10 and you will see it stair stepping higher -a HH followed by a HL followed by a HH and, wait a minute, don't tell me it's going to put in a HL right smack on Weekly and major support? Do you see it?
Yes, I have an ascending TL Dec 29th thru the March ones you mention. Price is still above this longer term uptrend. I was looking far to recently at the down trend of the last few days. HH & HL's since March 10, no question



""3. It has closed below the 20ma (daily) and weekly 20ma. both are flat (the daily was previously up)""
True, BUT you need to see where the next bar closes BEFORE doing anything. Now VERY IMPORTANT - price is in the 20-50 trap - this is a very volatile and turbulent area - don't do anything or form any opinions while she is in the trap - let her reveal herself first.

""4. It has broken through and closed below (my) SR line @ 1.6933""
This is not support - you may want to check how you are identifying your S&R levels - I show Weekly and major support at 1.6780
Still struggling with the correct identification of these, I look very closely at every chart you post & look at you SR line placement....eventually I am sure I will see the light

""6. This is a bearish piece of PA, in a down trend""
You were the guy Baba G was waiting for! You fell into his trap. Yes it is bearish PA but NOT bearish PASR. He was looking for the guys who got excited with PA but forgot the SR bit. Do you see it?
Now I know where my S line should have been & also the ascending trending (Dec/ Mar)


""I think a 'J16' strategy to play this might be to place a sell order at the 50% re-tracement of the bar (ie 1.702area), stop at the high (1.716), reducing the 'risk' to a more palatable 140 pips""

NO, NO, NO - NOT EVER! This is where I STRONGLY DISAGREE with J16.
We want the SAFEST, LOWEST RISK (in both MM and trading psychology) for our entries. As such, we make the market COME TO US in other words, if we have made the correct decision, we will be trading with MOMENTUM.

We must always place our entries "x" pips BELOW the set up bar (or support or swing low) to go short and "x" pips ABOVE the set up bar (or resistance or swing high) to go long. This way, we ONLY get filled IF the market moves in our direction (except for stop runs).

Also, in a post after Blackeagle's GBPCHF, I dropped a HUGE HINT when I said I may just go to the ATM and buy up to 1.7500

So, the main point is that you do not have your S&R levels identified correctly otherwise (hopefully) you would have seen that DBHLC/BEOB STOP dead on support.

EVERYONE: This is the advantage of posting your thoughts on entries etc - so that we can help you.


Thanks for taking the time to reveal a few more of the 'sign posts', Strat. Also for the clarification of what we are learning here as opposed to all the other material which exists and is not cleared marked as 'beginners' level, 'intermediate' & 'advanced'. The best piece for me was the safest, lowest risk entry rules you wrote (which just happens to align strongly with someone elses 'reminiscences' that I have been reading this week)

Thanks again
Paul
Cheers for the 'Paul-trap' bG !
  • #2,359
  • Apr 24, 2009 7:24am Apr 24, 2009 7:24am
Quoting PaulKing
A few more pointers, Paul:

""2. It has formed in a daily tf down trend""
How do you come up with this?
Start at March 10 and you will see it stair stepping higher -a HH followed by a HL followed by a HH and, wait a minute, don't tell me it's going to put in a HL right smack on Weekly and major support? Do you see it?
Yes, I have an ascending TL Dec 29[color=#0047ff][FONT=Trebuchet MS,...
Hi Paul,
Take a look at the index and check out the Suppport and Resistance sections.
Read them and then go back to the thread and find Strat's reply to my post on Swing Lows and Highs (a few pages back).
He added an image with a nice explanation of Swing Highs and Lows if you study it.
Now go back and reread the S&R section and hopefully something will click.
I can't wait to hear Strat's next clue.

Corbett
  • #2,360
  • Apr 24, 2009 8:58am Apr 24, 2009 8:58am
Quoting Blackeagle
Can 0.7300 be a better S/R line? Please have a look at the line chart, too.
Blackeagle,
Thanks for your reply. Line charts on weekly and daily show .73 as a better SR, as do candles once I had the line drawn.
With this TL broken, could it have any significance as resistance at .73?
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