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  • #11,081
  • Apr 23, 2009 11:23am Apr 23, 2009 11:23am
Thanks for the heads up, Tori...I'd of missed it if you hadn't flagged it.

Cliff

Quoting Tori
BRV Thanks for posting that video. Even though it is the middle of the morning here have watched it and I urge everyone to watch it and then probably watch it again in a few days. This is a very important video, which is basically his book, so that should be a reference at hand also.
I get exercise just pushing my luck
  • #11,082
  • Apr 23, 2009 1:21pm Apr 23, 2009 1:21pm
Quoting RedCabbage
And another: -

11547- 11500

RBS
TF
00
50
R
S
TL
Here we are.

BRV likes 11521 which is right in the middle of this range but watch the time of day, volumes are low.
  • #11,083
  • Apr 23, 2009 1:42pm Apr 23, 2009 1:42pm
Looking ahead on the EUR/USD, possible reaction areas for shorts at 1.3335 (also 50% fib) & 1.34 (1.3415 is 68% fib)..

http://i24.photobucket.com/albums/c2...uapril23-1.jpg
  • #11,084
  • Edited 3:08pm Apr 23, 2009 2:56pm | Edited 3:08pm
Went short EurUsd @ 1.3112 with 20pip s/l. See attach.

S/L hit for -20.

Some of the thoughts why didnt work out is because there was a good size retracement earlier at 1.3084. and it seems price was not creeping up slowly to the 1.3100 level and very little price action / selling pressure. Should have cut it when I noticed that.

Any additional thoughts from more experienced traders on my analysis?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #11,085
  • Apr 23, 2009 4:46pm Apr 23, 2009 4:46pm
Hi Darkness,

I had the same trade. I think it was a valid setup; prior S/R, TL, near the Figure, 50% retracement, price had exceeded its ATR, Space, Time Frame, etc. Many of the checkmarks from Red Cabbage were met.

The only flaw, IMWO, if there was one, was the weakness of the dollar. Dollar Futures were down considerably and had been for hours. But one can ALWAYS find reasons NOT to trade almost any setup. So one must be aware of things like that, and if they are compelling, then either stand aside or perhaps reduce the trade size or risk in some way.

SR
  • #11,086
  • Apr 23, 2009 5:03pm Apr 23, 2009 5:03pm
imho 20 pip sl is quite small...may want to modify your mm to account for a larger sl to let the trade breathe...my bias is currently short on eu...just waiting for a nice place to sell...
Nihil inimicus quam sibi ipse Marcus Tullius Cicero
  • #11,087
  • Apr 23, 2009 5:15pm Apr 23, 2009 5:15pm
Quoting coscorp
imho 20 pip sl is quite small...may want to modify your mm to account for a larger sl to let the trade breathe...my bias is currently short on eu...just waiting for a nice place to sell...
I would agree with this...20 pips sounds tight. Nothing wrong with that but maybe reduce risk and be ready to re-enter?

Quoting RedCabbage
I think of support and resistance as a range, we are kidding ourselves if we start talking in exact prices and certainties.
In addition, as you already mentioned, there was quite a bit of retrace on the earlier move up to 1.3085.
  • #11,088
  • Apr 23, 2009 5:49pm Apr 23, 2009 5:49pm
Quoting sam0182
I would agree with this...20 pips sounds tight. Nothing wrong with that but maybe reduce risk and be ready to re-enter?



In addition, as you already mentioned, there was quite a bit of retrace on the earlier move up to 1.3085.
I think that is the key, the recent reaction from 13089 means a strong reaction from the next level of resistance is unlikely.

Maybe more importantly looking up to the 4hr TF the last reaction at 13112 was too long ago and there are more important more recent resistance levels circled that would be a more obvious price target for me.

Lastly is the time of day, as I commented in my USDCHF post volumes are lower after London close.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #11,089
  • Apr 23, 2009 7:00pm Apr 23, 2009 7:00pm
GBP hit the 4709 level I had drawn and am now short from there.

My reasons:

From my chart, the GBP had broken a long diagonal trendline that was
pretty obvious that started back in March. The 4709 level it is at now is a
retracement back to that trendline from a major break which is typical PA.
So we have an intersection of trendline retrace and the 4709 level which at
this point seems to be holding.

I expect a decline back down to the 4494 level. I have a level drawn at
4608 as well but since PA has ignore that level for the past 4 days, I think
it is now insignificant but will take half profit when it reaches there anyway.


http://i267.photobucket.com/albums/i...ilytargets.gif

It also appears to me that GBP is at the top of the current box range.

http://i267.photobucket.com/albums/i...lyboxrange.gif

I eventually see GBP reaching a MAJOR level at 4074 which on the monthly
chart 4074 is the level of the bottom of a box range formed back in
Jan-Feb.

http://i267.photobucket.com/albums/i...gbpmonthly.gif

So when my short term outlook = my long term outlook, I feel pretty confident about going short right now.

Is it too much analysis? Don't know but it helps me decide what to do. I guess this is what's called "trading what you see"!

Just my opinion. Hope it helps.
  • #11,090
  • Apr 23, 2009 7:19pm Apr 23, 2009 7:19pm
Sorry for using up so much screen space but can someone tell me how to post a smaller chart that can be expanded when you click on it?
  • #11,091
  • Apr 23, 2009 7:39pm Apr 23, 2009 7:39pm
Quoting RedCabbage
...I think that is the key, the recent reaction from 13089 means a strong reaction from the next level of resistance is unlikely.
RC, would you mind elaborating on this point a bit?

Are you saying that the reaction lower from 3089 was so strong that we shouldn't expect a strong reaction from the next level of R? Or did you mean the reaction from 89 was NOT that strong?

Also, if you have time, would you explain how the reaction at 89 affects our expectation of the reaction at the next level?

Thanks
  • #11,092
  • Apr 23, 2009 8:10pm Apr 23, 2009 8:10pm
Morning,

Wild day yesterday on the cable could'nt seem to keep in synch with it bailed on a breakout a little too early.

Today I'm watching the usd/jpy for some action around the 97.50 area.
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  • #11,093
  • Apr 23, 2009 8:36pm Apr 23, 2009 8:36pm
Quoting Pip2It
Sorry for using up so much screen space but can someone tell me how to post a smaller chart that can be expanded when you click on it?
Perhaps you can try to use image attachment instead of inserting an image. Click the "Manage Attachments" button in the "Thread Options", then upload your images or give the urls to your images, when you post your reply.
  • #11,094
  • Apr 23, 2009 8:49pm Apr 23, 2009 8:49pm
Hi Pip 2IT Just saw your pound chart and prediction of it going down based on that diagonal trend line. What time frame is that chart, and perhaps check the line. I see a lower candle, about second back, which is closed of course. You have to change that line constantly from right to left which can change the whole complextion of the chart. That is why people are careful of diagonals, because if they forget to move them constantly they can be thrown off. Louise Bedfords candle stick book is great for rechecking techniques. On another note, in case anyone here didnt see it, BRV posted a video of mark douglass training session. runs about an hour, but a not to be missed view.
  • #11,095
  • Apr 23, 2009 8:53pm Apr 23, 2009 8:53pm
Quoting dreamtrader
Perhaps you can try to use image attachment instead of inserting an image. Click the "Manage Attachments" button in the "Thread Options", then upload your images or give the urls to your images, when you post your reply.

Thanks, dreamtrader. I will try that next time.
  • #11,096
  • Apr 23, 2009 9:15pm Apr 23, 2009 9:15pm
Quoting Tori
Hi Pip 2IT Just saw your pound chart and prediction of it going down based on that diagonal trend line. What time frame is that chart, and perhaps check the line. I see a lower candle, about second back, which is closed of course. You have to change that line constantly from right to left which can change the whole complextion of the chart. That is why people are careful of diagonals, because if they forget to move them constantly they can be thrown off.
Tori, that chart is a daily chart. The diagonal trendline is a long term trendline that is based on four touches from a March-April. You're right that diagonals are tricky in that they are constantly being redrawn and I do not rely on them nearly as much as I do horizontal levels. I use them only if I think that it's an obvious one that a lot of traders might have on their charts as well and only if it's backed up by multiple touches.

It's more important to me that recent PA reached the 4709 level I had drawn and reversed so far. It just happens that it also coincides with this trendline which makes me think that this trendline is significant.

I've been very wrong before and will absolutely be wrong again. So I could be wrong this time, too. That's why I like BRV's thread so much because unlike other threads, everyone in here is so helpful. Especially you veterans like Tori and RC. I learn alot. I just hope that I can contribute.

But thanks for reminding me about the nature of diagonals. They are in my toolbox but way down on the list of confirmations.

However, that being said...it is a good idea for me and anyone trading GBP right now to be careful as it seems to be ranging and not really trending so even though I believe it will reach 4074 eventually, many levels in between could reverse it!

Haven't watched that video just yet but will definitely check it out!
  • #11,097
  • Apr 23, 2009 9:58pm Apr 23, 2009 9:58pm
Hi,

Nice break out on the usd/jpy. Stops as normal up 40 from the 9750 level.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #11,098
  • Apr 24, 2009 1:07am Apr 24, 2009 1:07am
Quoting rick86
RC, would you mind elaborating on this point a bit?

Are you saying that the reaction lower from 3089 was so strong that we shouldn't expect a strong reaction from the next level of R? Or did you mean the reaction from 89 was NOT that strong?

Also, if you have time, would you explain how the reaction at 89 affects our expectation of the reaction at the next level?

Thanks
The 80ish pip reaction fromm 13089 will have reduced the number of sellers at the next level.

A full explanation is in BRV's pdf which can be accessed from post 1.
  • #11,099
  • Apr 24, 2009 3:46am Apr 24, 2009 3:46am
Quoting RedCabbage
One to note for another day

12180-12152

RBS
TF
61
R
S
Now at b/e.
  • #11,100
  • Apr 24, 2009 6:02am Apr 24, 2009 6:02am
I'm looking for consolidation on this up to a 150point fade from wherever the high ends up, if it wants to crawl higher today. My most likely suspect at this point is 1.3300 - 1.3335 area, just based on an overall strong point of control in the zone. The entire area is swimming with resistance. 1.3300 double zeros and resistance, the 50% retracement at 1.3311 or so, and 1.3335 proving itself over and over again. We'll see.

I'm pretty sure some of you guys have pointed out these areas already.

That is, if it wants to go higher. I already tried fading it twice today, stopped out at breakeven on both. Whaaa.
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