Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading | Page 116 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Strat's PASR Long Term, Stress Free Trading 18,592 replies

M5 PASR Trend Trading Strat 95 replies

What you need for trading: indis, a strat & good music 27 replies

Another way to stress free, mechanic long term trading 29 replies

Short Term / Medium Term / Long Term? 3 replies

Attachments: Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading
Exit Attachments

Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading

  • #2,301
  • Apr 22, 2009 9:07pm Apr 22, 2009 9:07pm
Quoting Baba G
What a beautiful thing it is..........but not for the reason you may be thinking of.....

this bar will be many things for many people....what will it mean to you?......

id like to spill my whole story now but id like to hear what you think and maybe i may be able to help.......but only to see what i see thats all............g
I see what you see (both BEOB and DBHLC) on your data, but I wouldn't enter a trade on my data. Here are my notes.

On my platform I got the Big Boss showing a downtrend and we have bounced up to resistance from 1995 (1.75 or so). Price is far away from the MAs and no indication of the MAs turning up yet. There is no historical support below 1.75ish (on my data anyway). I don't see any price action indicating a bottom, but I am young and impetuous.
Next in command is the Boss. There was a hammer back in December and we have been trending higher since then. Now it is testing the 20 and getting close to the major downtrend line, but hasn't broken it. Still in a downtrend, right?
On to the Daily. Price got close to a round number physcological level (1.50) and has bounced up, but hasn't broken the major downtrend. Todays bar closed below the 20 and Boss 20 on my charts and it is sitting in between 20 and 50.
1. No BEOB or DBHLC on my data, so this is easy for me. No trade.
2. I am supposed to only be concentrating on hammers and shooting stars anyway, so this trade (based on your data) is off of my table.
3. Pip risk is above my MM too.

Now Strat...this is where I get a little unsure. The downtrend has not been broken on all 3 timeframes, but the lower 2 have been trending up towards it. How do I determine if they are just retracing and getting ready to dive again or if it is a legitimate reversal. Is Dr. Joe in the house?
  • #2,302
  • Apr 22, 2009 10:10pm Apr 22, 2009 10:10pm
Sorry Canadien fans.

Bruins got the broom out. Sweeep!
  • #2,303
  • Apr 22, 2009 11:20pm Apr 22, 2009 11:20pm
Quoting strat

EVERYONE:
Blackeagle may not post much but when he does TAKE NOTICE.

Thank you, Blackeagle
Thanks for this Strat, and I'll do my best for posting more. Trading daily tf (and weekly, so waiting for weekly bar close) and looking for best possible setups to form with clean charts are the main reasons of not posting much.
  • #2,304
  • Apr 22, 2009 11:36pm Apr 22, 2009 11:36pm
I'd like to share three charts with you which may prove that waiting for the right time patiently can generate more pips than you can imagine. First one is USDJPY.

Although we are in uptrend since Jan 2009, long term trend is still down. The level I am watching is 102 where we have LT down TL, SR level since year 2000 and fibo. ret. of last swing down. As you can see, there are too many confluences around 102 level.

97.00-97.50 level is important where we have BOSS 20 and TL supports, but even if those levels are broken down, uptrend from Jan. 2000 will still be valid until 93.50-94.00 levels are violated.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY-Daily.jpg Size: 157 KB
  • #2,305
  • Apr 22, 2009 11:53pm Apr 22, 2009 11:53pm
Second chart is USDCHF.

Price is moving in a big triangle. Downside break of the triangle is not tradable, IMO as you will be trading to a very important 1.1300 support then. On the other hand, upside break looks tradable in terms of potential reward. But keep in mind that, although trend is moving up since Mar. 2008, BIG BOSS still says down. Therefore this is a possible short term setup with clear risk and profit targets.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCHF-Daily.jpg Size: 183 KB
  • #2,306
  • Apr 23, 2009 12:04am Apr 23, 2009 12:04am
And this is GBPAUD chart.

This is a very interesting chart. 2.02 - 2.03 levels are very strong S area, Look at the daily bar with arrow. After opening with gap down, it proves how everyone is aware of that support area and closes strongly. And 2.09-2.10 levels are very important R area and those green lines are showing a pattern I like very much and breaking 2.10 level will confirm the long trade (of course based on PA) in terms of R area and the pattern. By the way, check out weekly bars and see how sellers emerge around 2.09-2.10 area.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPAUD-Daily.jpg Size: 154 KB
  • #2,307
  • Apr 23, 2009 12:07am Apr 23, 2009 12:07am
All three charts above have a common point which is apex of congestions is just 4-5 weeks away which means we may see some big moves in the very near future and which also means patience will reward the ones who know waiting.
  • #2,308
  • Apr 23, 2009 1:04am Apr 23, 2009 1:04am
Quoting FxPippy
Aud Cad 2nd IB supp by 20 and support level and pre drawn TL clear up trend space to move to 0.8900

Eur Aud 2nd IB touched pre-drawn BOSS resistance 1.8450, free space to trade to next BOSS supp level of 1.8050
Those 2nd IB's look like IB4's. Order set to sell short on EUR/AUD.
Bang.
  • #2,309
  • Apr 23, 2009 1:37am Apr 23, 2009 1:37am
Thanks Blackeagle for those potential setups.

One question. You have MAs on the USDJPY and USDCHF charts but none on the GBPAUD chart. Any reason for this, or was it just for clarity?
  • #2,310
  • Edited 2:05am Apr 23, 2009 1:43am | Edited 2:05am
Quoting Baba G
What a beautiful thing it is..........but not for the reason you may be thinking of.....

this bar will be many things for many people....what will it mean to you?......

id like to spill my whole story now but id like to hear what you think and maybe i may be able to help.......but only to see what i see thats all............g
Hi bG

Thanks for posting your chart, it seems that all the post on this thread happen whilst I am asleep! So, I apologise if this has already been revealed, but I am reading it chronological order and hope to take this 'challenge' as a learning test. (ie has anything that I have read on J16, here, or any other source got into my head properly, or do I need to go back to the start?)

1. This bar isn't a shooting star or hammer pattern
2. It has formed in a daily tf down trend
3. It has closed below the 20ma (daily) and weekly 20ma. both are flat (the daily was previously up)
4. It has broken through and closed below (my) SR line @ 1.6933
5. It looks like (on your data) a 2 bar pattern: Double High, lower close
6. This is a bearish piece of PA, in a down trend
7. The bars' length (my data) is in the order of 280 pips
8. There is both GBP & CHF 'fx significant' news due today

Now, 1, 7 & 8 put me off taking this trade (I will watch today with interest)

I think a 'J16' strategy to play this might be to place a sell order at the 50% re-tracement of the bar (ie 1.702area), stop at the high (1.716), reducing the 'risk' to a more palatable 140 pips

If three trades were placed here, I'd look to take the first one off at my SR (1.6933) which is 85 pips, banks some and reduced the risk as only 2/3rds of original stake that can now be stopped out for a loss. Alternatively (better?) at this point move all stops down to the entry level or slightly better, giving you two 'free trades'
T2 would be my second SR (1.6742) except the trigger bar's low (yesterdays bar) is higher than this, so I would actually reduce t2 up to this low 1.68 (220 pips)
t3 will be clear PA that indicates a change of the down trend. however stop will be moved to the high of the previous day, to lock in profits as queen decrees!

So once every one else has had a go, what are you doing with this one then bG. Any thing like I have described?

Good Luck
Paul

Ah-ha, now I have seen the other replies to this one I can see it. Nothing to do with all the waffle above:
It's bearish PA, drawing our attention towards this pair for very close monitoring over the next few days; looking for a clearer signal / confirmation, with a better (lower risk) entry set up
thanks to everyone who posted 'over night' (my time)
  • #2,311
  • Edited 1:59am Apr 23, 2009 1:45am | Edited 1:59am
Quoting Baba G
What a beautiful thing it is..........but not for the reason you may be thinking of.....
BEEB = Sell

I don't like making it too complicated.
Bang.
  • #2,312
  • Apr 23, 2009 3:43am Apr 23, 2009 3:43am
Quoting Blackeagle
All three charts above have a common point which is apex of congestions is just 4-5 weeks away which means we may see some big moves in the very near future and which also means patience will reward the ones who know waiting.
I wish i was able to vouch for you Blackeagle

Thanks for sharing your insight with us all.
  • #2,313
  • Apr 23, 2009 5:03am Apr 23, 2009 5:03am
Quoting Bloom
Thanks Blackeagle for those potential setups.

One question. You have MAs on the USDJPY and USDCHF charts but none on the GBPAUD chart. Any reason for this, or was it just for clarity?
MAs not much helping at the moment as Daily 20 is flat and Boss 20 is at 2.15, away from crucial 2.09-2.10 level.
  • #2,314
  • Apr 23, 2009 10:03am Apr 23, 2009 10:03am
Quoting psneto
Hmm I totally agree with you. One question: After your analyzed weekly at the end of the week, if the pair is sideways, you ignore it during the week if there's no PA close to weekly SR or you trade it from daily charts, in case you see a PA on daily SR?

thanks
Yes, ignore anything that is not supported by the BOSS and BIG BOSS - they are usually short term counter trend reactions
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #2,315
  • Edited 11:49am Apr 23, 2009 10:08am | Edited 11:49am
Quoting Naws
We have a bullish harami twin pattern (inside bar with 3rd confirming candle) inside this triangle pattern, also on support. I'd be looking to go long on the break of this triangle - IF it breaks. There is also resistance around 1.5160 so it would have to break that first

Although the trend is bearish and the MA's are flat which is against us. So have to be careful to not enter too early.

It seems like every time I analyze a pair for a potential setup, I find more reasons to leave it alone than to take it. I guess this is good but finding trades...
""It seems like every time I analyze a pair for a potential setup, I find more reasons to leave it alone than to take it. I guess this is good but finding trades on the Daily is not easy at all.""

Another BIG step for you, young man! It is not easy for EVERYBODY right now because they (the set ups) are NOT THERE.

The Daily charts are giving us chance to exercise our trading psychology - PATIENCE
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #2,316
  • Apr 23, 2009 10:33am Apr 23, 2009 10:33am
Quoting One14
I see what you see (both BEOB and DBHLC) on your data, but I wouldn't enter a trade on my data. Here are my notes.

On my platform I got the Big Boss showing a downtrend and we have bounced up to resistance from 1995 (1.75 or so). Price is far away from the MAs and no indication of the MAs turning up yet. There is no historical support below 1.75ish (on my data anyway). I don't see any price action indicating a bottom, but I am young and impetuous.
Next in command is the Boss. There was a hammer back in December and we have been trending higher...
First and foremost, we most only trade the Daily within the context of the BOSS and BIG BOSS. Anytime you are unsure of direction start with the BIG BOSS, then work your way through to the BOSS and finally to the worker, the Daily, so let's do it.

BIG BOSS:
She is still in a downtrend BUT what do the last 4 bars tell you after the huge December down bar? Now zero in even closer - what is the April bar telling you in relation to the March bar?

BOSS:
She is under orders from her BIG BOSS and is also in a downtrend BUT, wait a minute, do I see a HH, followed by a HL, followed by..........maybe, just maybe, this is telling me something

WORKER:
From the March 10 low, she has been stair stepping higher - is this the Stairway to Heaven? (Stairway to Heaven - Led Zepplin 1971)
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #2,317
  • Apr 23, 2009 10:46am Apr 23, 2009 10:46am
Quoting strat

BIG BOSS:
She is still in a downtrend BUT what do the last 4 bars tell you after the huge December down bar? Now zero in even closer - what is the April bar telling you in relation to the March bar?

BOSS:
She is under orders from her BIG BOSS and is also in a downtrend BUT, wait a minute, do I see a HH, followed by a HL, followed by..........maybe, just maybe, this is telling me something

WORKER:
From the March 10 low, she has been stair stepping higher - is this the Stairway to Heaven? (Stairway to Heaven - Led Zepplin 1971)
April's bar is shaping up to confirm a swing low but for me, this is untradable until it reaches (if it reaches) 1.7500.

You can draw a TL from the close on the 30th December 2008 and it shows a steady if unspectacular rise but again, until i see PA around 1.7500, no dice.
  • #2,318
  • Edited 12:29pm Apr 23, 2009 11:41am | Edited 12:29pm
Quoting PaulKing
[font=Trebuchet MS, sans-serif]Hi bG

Thanks for posting your chart, it seems that all the post on this thread happen whilst I am asleep! So, I apologise if this has already been revealed, but I am reading it chronological order and hope to take this 'challenge' as a learning test. (ie has anything that I have read on J16, here, or any other source got into my head properly, or do I need to go back to the start?)

1. This bar isn't a shooting star or hammer pattern
2. It has formed in a daily tf down trend
3. It has closed below the 20ma (daily)...
A few more pointers, Paul:

""2. It has formed in a daily tf down trend""
How do you come up with this?
Start at March 10 and you will see it stair stepping higher -a HH followed by a HL followed by a HH and, wait a minute, don't tell me it's going to put in a HL right smack on Weekly and major support? Do you see it?

""3. It has closed below the 20ma (daily) and weekly 20ma. both are flat (the daily was previously up)""
True, BUT you need to see where the next bar closes BEFORE doing anything. Now VERY IMPORTANT - price is in the 20-50 trap - this is a very volatile and turbulent area - don't do anything or form any opinions while she is in the trap - let her reveal herself first.

""4. It has broken through and closed below (my) SR line @ 1.6933""
This is not support - you may want to check how you are identifying your S&R levels - I show Weekly and major support at 1.6780

""6. This is a bearish piece of PA, in a down trend""
You were the guy Baba G was waiting for! You fell into his trap. Yes it is bearish PA but NOT bearish PASR. He was looking for the guys who got excited with PA but forgot the SR bit. Do you see it?

""I think a 'J16' strategy to play this might be to place a sell order at the 50% re-tracement of the bar (ie 1.702area), stop at the high (1.716), reducing the 'risk' to a more palatable 140 pips""

NO, NO, NO - NOT EVER! This is where I STRONGLY DISAGREE with J16.
We want the SAFEST, LOWEST RISK (in both MM and trading psychology) for our entries. As such, we make the market COME TO US in other words, if we have made the correct decision, we will be trading with MOMENTUM.

We must always place our entries "x" pips BELOW the set up bar (or support or swing low) to go short and "x" pips ABOVE the set up bar (or resistance or swing high) to go long. This way, we ONLY get filled IF the market moves in our direction (except for stop runs).

Also, in a post after Blackeagle's GBPCHF, I dropped a HUGE HINT when I said I may just go to the ATM and buy up to 1.7500

So, the main point is that you do not have your S&R levels identified correctly otherwise (hopefully) you would have seen that DBHLC/BEOB STOP dead on support.

EVERYONE: This is the advantage of posting your thoughts on entries etc - so that we can help you.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #2,319
  • Apr 23, 2009 11:47am Apr 23, 2009 11:47am
Quoting AminAS
BEEB = Sell

I don't like making it too complicated.
It won't complicate it BUT IT WILL MAKE YOU BROKE!

Just recently, you are making some VERY SILLY AND STUPID statements - are you full of something or smoking something or maybe both?
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #2,320
  • Apr 23, 2009 11:55am Apr 23, 2009 11:55am
Quoting AstonDan
April's bar is shaping up to confirm a swing low but for me, this is untradable until it reaches (if it reaches) 1.7500.

You can draw a TL from the close on the 30th December 2008 and it shows a steady if unspectacular rise but again, until i see PA around 1.7500, no dice.
Just to confirm what I THINK you mean:

The BIG BOSS April bar, providing she doesn't close below the March bar, will CONFIRM the March bar as the swing low.

And, as Blackeagle so kindly drew to our attention, psycho 1.7500 is the critical turning point for this pair.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
8 traders viewing now