james16 Chart Thread | Page 1393 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

Attachments: james16 Chart Thread
Exit Attachments

james16 Chart Thread

  • #27,841
  • Apr 23, 2009 12:45am Apr 23, 2009 12:45am
Quoting jarroo
If your buy/sell stop is just above/below a given quality PA setup then a hard break (momentum break) should follow. If I'm understanding your post.

If it doesn't break it could result like the proceeding bearish candle did (check mark). This trade shows the importance of waiting for the break.
Thanks Jarroo

So if you were watching this pair, hypothetically you may have placed the buy stop say 5 pips above the BUOB candle, plus spread, and use the usual 30-40pip stop once the buy is triggered. Then just let price wander around (for the next 2 candles) till it hits your buy stop?
WARNING: Don't follow me as I'm just learning
  • #27,842
  • Apr 23, 2009 12:56am Apr 23, 2009 12:56am
Quoting jarroo
If your buy/sell stop is just above/below a given quality PA setup then a hard break (momentum break) should follow. If I'm understanding your post.

If it doesn't break it could result like the proceeding bearish candle did (check mark). This trade shows the importance of waiting for the break.
jarroo, if you are playing the break of this maybe you would enter about 5 pips above the high, so that's .8920.. it made a clean break and hit a peak of about .8988 as i speak, that's 68 pips.. but where do you place your stop?
if you play it conservative and have a stop below the support around .8780 that means you need 140 pips just for a 1:1 RR ratio.
currently the price is back down to .8930, close to where we would have entered for break out.

i'm curious where you place your stop on plays like this where you can still manage to have a 1:1 or better RR ratio.

thanks,
DZ
  • #27,843
  • Apr 23, 2009 12:56am Apr 23, 2009 12:56am
Quoting Alexandra
Indeed, well said. I agree with that. Wise words about the importance of a good setup versus a somewhat aggressive one. There is sometimes a temptation on a large PB break to place a "hopeful" stop at an intrabar retracement, but overall, I find one has to accept the amount of risk offered by the appropriate stop below the bar. If it's too much, then there is another opportunity elsewhere.

That is a nifty bit of 4-hour spotting from your eagle eyes on USDCAD. Perhaps we are simply re-testing that weekly TL.

So if you cast those eagle...
Well said youself.

Not sure what your seeing. Got a chart?
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #27,844
  • Apr 23, 2009 1:00am Apr 23, 2009 1:00am
Quoting adam777
Thanks Jarroo

So if you were watching this pair, hypothetically you may have placed the buy stop say 5 pips above the BUOB candle, plus spread, and use the usual 30-40pip stop once the buy is triggered. Then just let price wander around (for the next 2 candles) till it hits your buy stop?
Well on this particular Daily EurGbp trade . . . yes, it would be. lol.

I still like to set an alert and view the trade as it unfolds. Not quite ready for set and forget.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #27,845
  • Apr 23, 2009 1:04am Apr 23, 2009 1:04am
Thank you
WARNING: Don't follow me as I'm just learning
  • #27,846
  • Apr 23, 2009 1:08am Apr 23, 2009 1:08am
LOL - apparently I learned my chart posting skills from Jacko .... anyway, the recent hourly EURJPY shows a nice PB three bars ago, but, to my mind, there are also a series of potentially unprofitable trades in there as well that might have been taken in the rush of the hourly analysis. The Yen crosses in particular seem to entice a trader to find a more aggressive entry in an attempt to limit stop distances. The recent 4 hour and potential daily trades have my attention.
  • #27,847
  • Apr 23, 2009 1:21am Apr 23, 2009 1:21am
Quoting dengzhi
jarroo, if you are playing the break of this maybe you would enter about 5 pips above the high, so that's .8920.. it made a clean break and hit a peak of about .8988 as i speak, that's 68 pips.. but where do you place your stop?
if you play it conservative and have a stop below the support around .8780 that means you need 140 pips just for a 1:1 RR ratio.
currently the price is back down to .8930, close to where we would have entered for break out.

i'm curious where you place your stop on plays like this where you can still manage to have a 1:1...
My Price Target would be the Lows that I marked in green and/or the very strong PPZ level and round number, .9000. My stop loss would be tight about 30 to 40 pips. Depending how Price broke, my stop loss may have been reduced to maybe 20 pips. Once Price hit 30 to 40 pips my stop loss would be moved to break even quickly. This baby broke very hard so it would have been a very easy trade and hit my target easily.

What type of risk reward is that, I don't know.
Attached Image
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #27,848
  • Apr 23, 2009 1:34am Apr 23, 2009 1:34am
Quoting Alexandra
LOL - apparently I learned my chart posting skills from Jacko .... anyway, the recent hourly EURJPY shows a nice PB three bars ago, but, to my mind, there are also a series of potentially unprofitable trades in there as well that might have been taken in the rush of the hourly analysis. The Yen crosses in particular seem to entice a trader to find a more aggressive entry in an attempt to limit stop distances. The recent 4 hour and potential daily trades have my attention.
That little baby PB in the middle of a consolidation and on the hourly, not very appealing. Swing High/Lows are where we like our PBs.

Although it did break pretty hard. . . . . . Just kidding. lol
Attached Image
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #27,849
  • Apr 23, 2009 1:55am Apr 23, 2009 1:55am
Indeed, given the importance of the 126 to 12650 area on the daily/weekly charts for EURJPY, refining the possible entry becomes an interesting task.
  • #27,850
  • Apr 23, 2009 2:18am Apr 23, 2009 2:18am
I'm still short. Pin bar then Inside bar & pin bar. If it breaks the bottom there could be a big move. stops at the top

Quoting jpa0827
I was just wondering what everyone thinks of the EUR/CAD & USD/CAD now that the Bars have closed for the day. Do you think they are headed higher (above the daily PB)? I can't decide on what to do with these two setups. They looked great to me, yet they moved terribly today; therefore, I'm still on the sidelines. I thought today was going to be a great trading day. Instead I was bored outta my mind
  • #27,851
  • Apr 23, 2009 2:18am Apr 23, 2009 2:18am
Hi - I was in the EUR/GBP (based on a retracement of the DBLHC) and moved stop to BE/took half profits yesterday. So then I was in a 'free' trade - hooray! But then last night I moved my stop about 30 pips above BE (just silly fiddling about really - and nothing to do with my plan, that's for sure) and got stopped out overnight. Bah! If I had left it alone I'd still be in. Lesson learned...

I still got out for a small profit though, which brings me to a question. I'm currently one month into demo trading - daily charts only - and so far, using the methods described in this thread (and I really can't quite believe I'm saying this!) I haven't had a losing trade. Having said that, I've only made 3 trades and none of them have been monster winners, but that's fine with me. My question is - Jim says '3 consecutive profitable months' is the first demo target, but does anyone have any thoughts about just how profitable those 3 months should be? I mean, would just above break even qualify? Or would you need to see 2%, 5%, 10%? I know there can't be a definitive answer to this, but I'd be glad of your thoughts.

I know this has been said before, but I think it bears repeating. Can I give a bit of advice to people who are completely new to this wonderful thread? As an 'almost complete beginner' myself (and a recovering 'scalpaholic' ) - if you want to make progress, read this thread through from beginning to end and then read it again! I am currently on my second run through, and it all makes so much more sense the second time around. Secondly, watch all the free vids on the J16 site and then (yes you've guessed it) watch them again!

Having said that, I hope you veterans will forgive me if I still occasionally ask the odd question that's already been answered several times before .

Cheers, G
When in doubt, sit on your hands...
  • #27,852
  • Apr 23, 2009 2:57am Apr 23, 2009 2:57am
Quoting gododdin
Hi - I was in the EUR/GBP (based on a retracement of the DBLHC) and moved stop to BE/took half profits yesterday....
Hey G

To me the 3 consecutive profitable months is not a hard and fast rule. It is what is accomplished during those 3 months. Some might need 4 or 5 to get the confidence and structure to their trading. I wouldn't put an actual number on it. If you are taking wild risks and come out up 60% at the end of 3 months, and another trader is using 1-2% of their account per trade, being very picky but only comes out with 7% at the end of 3 months. I would put my money on the back of trader 2 knowing they were in control and being discipline and stable. So hard to put an exact number on it. More the theory behind what should be taking place over those 3 consecutive months.

Hope that helps
Mike
  • #27,853
  • Apr 23, 2009 3:03am Apr 23, 2009 3:03am
Quoting gododdin
Hi - I was in the EUR/GBP (based on a retracement of the DBLHC) and moved stop to BE/took half profits yesterday....

Hi Gododdin,

Quote
Hi - I was in the EUR/GBP (based on a retracement of the DBLHC) and moved stop to BE/took half profits yesterday. So then I was in a 'free' trade - hooray! But then last night I moved my stop about 30 pips above BE (just silly fiddling about really - and nothing to do with my plan, that's for sure) and got stopped out overnight. Bah! If I had left it alone I'd still be in. Lesson learned...

Don't feel bad mate, These experiences are DAMN IMPORTANT right through your learning curve, trust me one day you'll want to thank all these losses, BEs and premature exits. For the newbies they are more important than the winners

Quote
I still got out for a small profit though, which brings me to a question. I'm currently one month into demo trading - daily charts only - and so far, using the methods described in this thread (and I really can't quite believe I'm saying this!) I haven't had a losing trade. Having said that, I've only made 3 trades and none of them have been monster winners, but that's fine with me. My question is - Jim says '3 consecutive profitable months' is the first demo target, but does anyone have any thoughts about just how profitable those 3 months should...

fantastic Gododdin,

What Jim's basically emphasizing on is "consistency". 3 profitable months in a row can be very different for different traders. But generally anything like 5% to 7% return for consecutively three months is acceptable. Make sure that this 5% does'nt come off from 50 trades, 36 losses and 14 big winners lol! You need to do it conservatively, anywhere from 3 to 10 good trades every month will do, (although 10's actually more than it should be I think...)

Quote
I know this has been said before, but I think it bears repeating. Can I give a bit of advice to people who are completely new to this wonderful thread? As an 'almost complete beginner' myself (and a recovering 'scalpaholic' ) - if you want to make progress, read this thread through from beginning to end and then read it again! I am currently on my second run through, and it all makes so much more sense the second time around. Secondly, watch all the free vids on the J16 site and then (yes you've guessed it) watch them again!...

Well...

One of the best thing abt this thread is that beautiful indiscrimiation between the posters. You'll never ever see anybody telling you to keep your mouth shut and that the question was intentded for the senior pros. lol! We're all a good happy family here and every advice and post is equally important and equally recognized by every reader here. Feel free to give your analysis on this thread bro and I am looking forward to your valuable advices

Quote
Having said that, I hope you veterans will forgive me if I still occasionally ask the odd question that's already been answered several times before

Again you're being too formal, All questions are widely embraced on this thread, efface out all such hesitations bro.

******---------------******

Just want to wish you all the best of luck, It's ppl like you who make Jim proud and help us all realize that the thread is headed in the right direction...

Keep up the good work!

Regards,
Ghous.
I believe . . .
  • #27,854
  • Apr 23, 2009 3:08am Apr 23, 2009 3:08am
Quoting mbqb11
Hey G

To me the 3 consecutive profitable months is not a hard and fast rule....
I can agree with this. I sent an email to Jim because one of my three months was 1% and I wondered if it was too little. But I am building a foundation here and taking profit at first target, being picky and risking 1% means that 1% is very reasonable. Then in the future, going months without a loss, I can consider increasing risk, or rather widening the instruments I trade. This is just the beginning of the journey for me. And A+ price action setups are so rare that often you can go a month without trading.

I have been following this material for many many months, since about august last year. And then i did about 3 months of live trading at the end of 2008 and was profitable for 2 of them and the other was a very small loss. Then I took some time off for personal reasons and am back now, doing month 2 of my 3 months with no losses at all yet.

For me it's important to stick to the rules I set myself because I think that's the key to trading. Being rewarded for breaking my rules is one of the worst psychological reinforcements I can get.

There are so many more layers to this than getting profitable. This month has been more about learning that trades that don't fit my plan take off all the time and developing the psych to resist feeling that I "missed out". The trading part has been relatively easy. So it's a constant learning curve.

Bit of a ramble before work.....hope it helps.

Aaron
  • #27,855
  • Apr 23, 2009 3:09am Apr 23, 2009 3:09am
Quoting mbqb11
Hey G

To me the 3 consecutive profitable months is not a hard and fast rule....
Damn!

What's your typing speed mate? You beat me to it...

I believe . . .
  • #27,856
  • Apr 23, 2009 4:04am Apr 23, 2009 4:04am
Thanks for the replies guys. I'm sticking to daily bars and happy with that - not rushing into trades, so that I have plenty of time for analysis (which also makes keeping good records a snip) - but there is still a huge amount to learn about the process. I really like Jim's comment that its more about looking for reasons NOT to trade than looking for reasons to trade - I have that one on my 'trading wisdom' list next to the PC.

I've been back-testing various pairs and I'm also thinking of investing in ForexTester - the only thing I'm a bit wary of, now that I've made a real effort to slow everything right down, is that having the ability to flip quickly through daily bars looking for PA patterns and PPZ is going to make me speed up again!

I've made my demo trading as realistic as possible by only having the same amount to trade with as I'll actually have when I go live. I'm working on risking 2% per trade and having a max of 2 trades running concurrently (though up to now it's only been one trade at a time).
When in doubt, sit on your hands...
  • #27,857
  • Apr 23, 2009 4:34am Apr 23, 2009 4:34am
I like this pin
there is the trafic
but we will see
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: x.gif Size: 11 KB
Jesus Christ is my only Lord !
  • #27,858
  • Apr 23, 2009 4:46am Apr 23, 2009 4:46am
Couple of Inside Bars on the Daily ( one is pretty close), at a swing Low. Interesting how they are made up of a couple big BUOB on the 4 hour chart.. Let's see if she runs.

Edit; spoke to soon.
Attached Images
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #27,859
  • Apr 23, 2009 4:53am Apr 23, 2009 4:53am
Quoting jarroo
Couple of Inside Bars on the Daily ( one is pretty close), at a swing Low. Interesting how they are made up of a couple big BUOB on the 4 hour chart.. Let's see if she runs.

Edit; spoke to soon.

Saw the same thing on the Eur/Gbp a few weeks ago, although they were on the Daily. (blue check marks)
Attached Image
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #27,860
  • Apr 23, 2009 4:53am Apr 23, 2009 4:53am
EUR/CAD. - price has not yet broken Daily pinbar of 2 days ago. 1hr Pinbar has formed to suggest short.

If Daily Pinbar holds this is a good opportunity to get in short right at the top of it, low risk for big reward
28 traders viewing now