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  • #2,261
  • Apr 22, 2009 2:15pm Apr 22, 2009 2:15pm
Quoting Life of Pi_p
I'm on a different feed than most of you, but again its trade what you see....
Monochrome eh – must still have a black and white telly!

I don’t like doing updates mid-week as the remaining days can turn it on its head so, as of where we are now, April 22, 2009 at 3pm EST:

EURUSD:
The BIG BOSS has formed a nice solid base around psycho 1.2600 so its going to take something BIG to get below there – the current financial turmoil didn’t do it so………………….
The BOSS looks to me like she is trying to put in a swing low – we will not know for sure until the Friday close and then the week after to confirm it or not.
The Daily is now testing support for the third time (with 2 hours to go).

So, put all this together and see if it tells you anything

GBPUSD:
The BIG BOSS looks like she is putting in a CONFIRMED swing low but there are still 8 days to go.
The BOSS is already making higher highs and higher lows and this week COULD be another higher swing low – wait to see what the close of Friday tells us.
The Daily is trapped between the 20 and 50 – stay out until she tells us where she wants to go. Usually, a big move springs from the 20 – 50 trap. The Daily WAS doing a nice stair stepping uptrend UNTIL it met psycho 1.5000

So, see if you can “feel” what is happening.

USDCAD already discussed ad nauseam in earlier posts BUT note also the Daily is in the 20 – 50 trap.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #2,262
  • Apr 22, 2009 2:18pm Apr 22, 2009 2:18pm
Quoting Naws
The BOSS is of course the boss of the Daily, so if they disagree we might see some sideways action but the BOSS should win out in the end
Yes, but NO TRADE UNTIL THEY AGREE!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #2,263
  • Apr 22, 2009 2:31pm Apr 22, 2009 2:31pm
Hi Team Strat.

A quick glance before close tonight at 10pm UK. I'll be back after some food! A question Strat: There are several pairs on a clear up trend on the dialy, that have done a first pullback to the 20/50 zone and show IB PASR for potential orders. Do you have a guidance for us on The Path of Learning on whether trading first pullbacks is appropriate or should it be that we wait totally for the 20 and 50 on the daily to support the trend and then wait for PASR for confirmation? Any help much appreciated, Thanks, Nicole


Watch list 22.4.09

Aud Cad 2nd IB supp by 20 and support level and pre drawn TL clear up trend space to move to 0.8900

Eur Aud 2nd IB touched pre-drawn BOSS resistance 1.8450, free space to trade to next BOSS supp level of 1.8050

Cad Jpy IB supported by 50 bounced off weekly supp 78.00 pullback on an uptrend mid range between 20 50

Aus Usd 2nd IB wick touched weekly major support 0.7000 may close above 20 supported by Boss 20 and daily 50 pullback on an uptrend top range between 20 50

Aud Jpy 2nd IB supported by 50 and boss 50 and minor weekly support level 68.00 pullback on an uptrend mid range between 20 50

Nzd Jpy 2nd IB supported by 50 and boss 50 and minor weekly support level 54.00, pullback on an uptrend mid range between 20 50

Nzd Usd 2nd IB mid range between 20 & 50, looks like supported by Boss 50 on close price (have to wait until 10pm) mid range between 20 50
  • #2,264
  • Apr 22, 2009 2:42pm Apr 22, 2009 2:42pm
Anyone else noticed the mirror image on usdcad and oil. We have shooting stars inside one another. Oil has Doji's inside one another. Who will win the battle then?

If oil goes up then CAD rises against usd, being a commodity currency right? Check out the inverse correlation

Guess we'll have to wait and see, let the pesky market show her hand.

BTW great post Golfer27 - useful insight. More credibility afforded to staying out here on the daily's! Where were you for me 3yrs ago! LOL

BBTW - Did I mention Mark Marber's TL rules in his excellent book. He's about 75 and been in the markets for 50 odd years. He says a TL is considered broken in shares by a move thru that TL in excess of 3%. For Forex he uses 1%. So using his rules we could consider that ascending TL on Cad violated.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #2,265
  • Apr 22, 2009 2:57pm Apr 22, 2009 2:57pm
[quote=strat;2688152][quote=golfer27;268

Anymore broker stories you can share? - I love this stuff![/quote]

Hi Strat - broker stories!!!! LOL Grillions of them, but as it's before the watershed here in londinium, best to keep them for later!!

In all seriousness, it's probably very easy for the amateur trader to get spooked by the myth of " The Big Boys ", these all seeing, all knowing people who eat the small guys for breakfast. On the shorter t-f, sure, the amateur who trades the short t-f's, and i mean daily downwards, as the mkt says , 95% of them are just fodder.

Having spent most of my working life dealing with these guys, you guys on this thread have nothing to fear! Yes, there are some sharp cookies out there, but if they're sharp, they usually end up trading options. Why??
Because options require a large amt of the grey stuff. Most of the time, in options, you don't trade a price, you trade a variable of price, Volatility being the most common. Might be worth a look for some newbies, don't tie yourselves in knots, but we had options geeks who would wander over, in a dead mkt, and mumble something about call or put options about to expire , at 3pm the mkt went ballistic moving 100 pips, spot traders have'nt a clue as to why, the options boys knew!!
most spot traders, and i use that term very loosely, make their money off the customer traders, simply widening quotes by 30 - 50 pips. They will not affect good PASR!!! Hope this helps.
  • #2,266
  • Apr 22, 2009 4:00pm Apr 22, 2009 4:00pm
[quote=golfer27;2688288]
Quoting strat

Hi Strat - broker stories!!!! LOL Grillions of them, but as it's before the watershed here in londinium, best to keep them for later!!

In all seriousness, it's probably very easy for the amateur trader to get spooked by the myth of " The Big Boys ", these all seeing, all knowing people who eat the small guys for breakfast. On the shorter t-f, sure, the amateur who trades the short t-f's, and i mean daily downwards, as the mkt says , 95% of them are just fodder.

Having spent most of my working life dealing with these...

Thanks for the info Golfer27 - this makes me very happy!!
Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #2,267
  • Apr 22, 2009 4:05pm Apr 22, 2009 4:05pm
Hi Golfer 27
Great to have you on the tread, reassuring to know that the daily TF is in relatively safe waters. look forward to your post’s.

Strat my handle , cowboying . A few friends and I went on a riding holiday in southern Spain in the early 90’s. the ranch owner picked us up at the coach station, obviously the worst from drinking the local brew. About two miles from the ranch he drove off the road luckily in to some bushes but managed to wreck the engine on a rock.
When we eventually got to the ranch his wife came out to greet us but when she found out about the pickup she became a woman possessed and started to kick seven bells out of this guy.

In the morning we found out she tried to shoot him in the night and he quite reasonably legged it. So we spent a week on the coast drinking beer instead, so every time I went on the pi** my friends would tell my trouble and strife he’s gone cowboying. Still never rode a house to this day.
Yesterday’s regrets and tomorrows dreams are today’s opportunities
  • #2,268
  • Edited 5:03pm Apr 22, 2009 4:15pm | Edited 5:03pm
Here's a reply to a PM today:

Hi Strat
Got my attention, read through a few posts and then went back to read again, some very interesting comments and I see you reflecting on my Trade history - seems we all have to go through this to finally realise that people like you and Jim make sense.

I like your use of Hammers and Stars, this is a strange time for me, when I first started out I read and learned about candlestick patterns - and my trading was going good, then I found FF and screwed it all up.

So a few questions EMA versus SMA - I see some people refering to EMA and some SMA some have both - I know read more, but I was hoping you could clear this up for me as I usually use 13,100,200 EMA typical.

Also I see a hanging man on AUDCHF weekly, to me this is tradable if the following candle is bearish, also the monthly has seen a 50% retrace and a BEOB on daily which has yet to be broken - your method seems straight forward - is my view anywhere near correct.

I will complete J16 before posting to your thread and looking closer at your method as you recommend this and I need to start finishing this PA phase of learning.

Thanks for the slap the other day!

Name withheld

G'day mate, I guess we say that now that you've moved down under - a true POME!

I have tried all lengths and types of MAs, using them for signals and trend direction. Most will do what you want them to, PROVIDING you know their limitations (lag, only show history etc).

I finally settled on 20EMA and 50SMA after learning these are what the majority of Banks, Institutions, Funds etc use to trigger orders. I want to be playing WITH the big boys not against them. If you look at charts with these on, you can see how prices respect and react to them

I add 150EMA, 200EMA and 365EMA on and off as prices get near them as certain pairs are more responsive to them.

AUDCHF is not on the list of pairs supported by my broker so I can't pull up a chart to help, sorry. Your analysis though seems fine although you didn't mention what the BIG BOSS (Monthly) was doing.

The trick with PASR is to let the market REVEAL itself FIRST before jumping in - so many traders jump in "blind" at the first sign of PASR - in other words, PATIENCE & DISCIPLINE

Nice to hear from you and look forward to you joining us.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #2,269
  • Apr 22, 2009 4:17pm Apr 22, 2009 4:17pm
Quoting cowboying
Hi Golfer 27
Great to have you on the tread, reassuring to know that the daily TF is in relatively safe waters. look forward to your post’s.

Strat my handle , cowboying . A few friends and I went on a riding holiday in southern Spain in the early 90’s. the ranch owner picked us up at the coach station, obviously the worst from drinking the local brew. About two miles from the ranch he drove off the road luckily in to some bushes but managed to wreck the engine on a rock.
When we eventually got to the ranch his wife came out to greet us but when...
Hence the moral of the story - DON'T MESS WITH THE BOSS!

Thanks, Steve
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #2,270
  • Apr 22, 2009 4:33pm Apr 22, 2009 4:33pm
Strat,
Let's see how I'm doing with my analysis...
EUR/USD
Weekly: Down trend and a possible PB forming that tested support 1.29. PB against the trend.
Daily: BEOB testing support on 1.29 level but we have the TL right above. So NO trade. (Question: If the next bar breaks the TL, would we buy after it tests the TL again?)

USDCHF
Weekly: a possible PB testing the TL down trend and pair is sideways
Daily: BEOB, having a neutral and PB behind indicating sell as well. BUT, TL and 20 and 50 ema are really close. NO TRADE.

USD/JPY
Weekly: Down trend, between 20 and 50 ema testing support 97.50
Daily: It broke the IB from yesterday to the down side but it couldnt break the support on 97.50 with confluence with 50 ema. NO TRADE

GBP/USD
Weekly: Tested UP trend TL and it's testing support at 1.4450.
Daily: Sideways, has 20 and 50 ema right above and testing support 1.4450. I think a possible trade would be after market breaks the lower from Yesterday.

USD/CAD
Weekly: sideways
Daily: Neutral/IB bar, closed above 50 ema and has 20 ema right above as well. No trade.


thanks!
  • #2,271
  • Apr 22, 2009 4:36pm Apr 22, 2009 4:36pm
Quoting strat
Here's a reply to a PM today:

Hi Strat
Got my attention, read through a few posts and then went back to read again, some very interesting comments and I see you reflecting on my Trade history - seems we all have to go through this to finally realise that people like you and Jim make sense.

[font=Arial]I like your use of Hammers and Stars, this is a strange time for me, when I first started out I read and learned about candlestick patterns - and my trading was going good, then I found FF and screwed it all...
HMm I'm using 20 EMA and 50 EMA. is SMA Simple or Smoothed?

thanks
  • #2,272
  • Apr 22, 2009 4:39pm Apr 22, 2009 4:39pm
Hey Strat,
Shoestring is a song by Mel McDaniels, 1986
I earned this handle back then when CB radios were popular.
Two lines from that song:
"Shoestring, you got your hat on backwards" - fast horses make your hat fly off.
"he don't talk unless you ask him to" - Stat, you're pulling me out of my comfort zone.
  • #2,273
  • Apr 22, 2009 4:55pm Apr 22, 2009 4:55pm
I would agree that the boss and big boss are up. But. The nature of such sideways moves is that from time to time they fail.

So I would be willing to consider taking a short on break at close of day of hammer and daily 20 ema.

Risk reward logic is: Risk ~ 200 pips.
Failure of the down move will be price action based but my first point of surrender would be in the 1.200-1.2050 zone and my second would be the 1.1760-1.1800 zone. Assuming that the exit after a failed price bar was 200 pips above the zone the potential rewards if price doesn't fail down are 160 to 360 pips.

So, it means risking 200 to get 160-360 against the longer term trend. Not very attractive. Better to wait to see if PA offers a buy at one of these areas for a longer move.

So, in this case, the probability of continuation is too low and the most likely support is too close to make this worth taking.

No trade.
  • #2,274
  • Apr 22, 2009 5:02pm Apr 22, 2009 5:02pm
Quoting FxPippy
Hi Team Strat.

A quick glance before close tonight at 10pm UK. I'll be back after some food! A question Strat:...
I don't like to generalise on questions, Nicole, I like to be specific. I think also YOU shouldn't trade with generalisations and instead evaluate, analyse and trade on a specific case by case basis. Although things may look alike in general, there are so many other things we must take in to consideration. Sorry.

Its also difficult to comment without seeing your charts but here goes:

AUDCAD: insufficient data from my broker so I cannot evaluate

EURAUD: as above

CADJPY: Insufficient PASR to take a trade

AUDUSD: Not an IB on my data - a VERY neutral doji with a LONG wick and LONG tail - DON'T TOUCH IT

AUDJPY: as above

NZDJPY: It looks OK but it wouldn't get my trade - I need her to show me she IS moving up so I would wait to see what tomorrow's bar reveals.

NZDUSD: as above

Nicole: some of these "look like" they are setting up for moves BUT "looking like" doesn't make us money - we need to see it "DO"

Me thinks you have slipped back to looking for trades instead of "SEEING" trades.

Get another note out and stick it on your laptop:

AM I WANTING TO TRADE OR MAKE MONEY?
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #2,275
  • Apr 22, 2009 5:03pm Apr 22, 2009 5:03pm
Quoting psneto
HMm I'm using 20 EMA and 50 EMA. is SMA Simple or Smoothed?

thanks
Hi psneto

Simple Moving Average
Yesterday’s regrets and tomorrows dreams are today’s opportunities
  • #2,276
  • Apr 22, 2009 5:13pm Apr 22, 2009 5:13pm
Quoting psneto
Strat,
Let's see how I'm doing with my analysis...
EUR/USD
Weekly: Down trend and a possible PB forming that tested support 1.29....
Come on guys, let's not get into this! A full blown (BIG BOSS to BOSS to worker) analysis is only worth it when done after the BOSS closes (Friday 5pm EST)

During the week, we can only do a Daily analysis - anything more and we end up guessing or a coin toss - and these don't make money.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #2,277
  • Apr 22, 2009 5:18pm Apr 22, 2009 5:18pm
Quoting psneto
HMm I'm using 20 EMA and 50 EMA. is SMA Simple or Smoothed?

thanks
I wish our cowboy hadn't answered you because do you know what my answer is:

If you don't know this, how much of the rest of the thread don't you know or understand? This is OBVIOUS you have not READ and UNDERSTOOD.

If you can't read, understand and follow instructions, you do not stand any chance whatsoever in making money in trading.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #2,278
  • Apr 22, 2009 5:32pm Apr 22, 2009 5:32pm
Quoting shoestring
Hey Strat,
Shoestring is a song by Mel McDaniels, 1986
I earned this handle back then when CB radios were popular.
Two lines from that song:
"Shoestring, you got your hat on backwards" - fast horses make your hat fly off.
"he don't talk unless you ask him to" - Stat, you're pulling me out of my comfort zone.
So, you're one of those guys that wears your baseball cap back to front eh? I love going up to you guys and saying "Excuse me, but do you know you have got your cap on back to front?" Their answer is always similar to what I said to the Merchant Wanker!

Comfort zone? Comfort zone? You're on the wrong thread for that! This is a "stand up and be counted" thread!

The only McDaniel worth singing a song was Ellas McDaniel - otherwise known as Bo Diddley - one of the originators of rock n roll!

Keep posting, Rick!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #2,279
  • Apr 22, 2009 5:45pm Apr 22, 2009 5:45pm
Quoting kiwi_trader
I would agree that the boss and big boss are up....
Wow, Kiwi trader, you love putting yourself through the wringer! - maybe some masochism going on there?

You got the right answer but wouldn't it be simpler to say something like " No trade since the Daily does not agree with the BOSS and BIG BOSS?"
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #2,280
  • Apr 22, 2009 6:08pm Apr 22, 2009 6:08pm
Nicole: some of these "look like" they are setting up for moves BUT "looking like" doesn't make us money - we need to see it "DO"

Me thinks you have slipped back to looking for trades instead of "SEEING" trades.

Get another note out and stick it on your laptop:

AM I WANTING TO TRADE OR MAKE MONEY?[/quote]

Hi Nicole / Strat
Over the last few weeks I have been guilty of looking for trades and then trying to fit them to a plan when clearly they need more time to show us the way. I believe this is partly down to trading shorter TF in the past and the fear of missing a good move.

What I do now (As a practise tool) is draw out what the scenario would be for a short or long to take affect, so I draw good entry points on solid S&R and like Strat keeps telling us look at how much I will lose, this forces me to wait. Having a tick off sheet also helps when I’m trigger happy.


Long long long way to go before reading PA like Baba G but I’m starting to see the light or is that a Glimmer. Some more examples of successful / unsuccessful trades would be helpful to get a feel of the dynamics of the daily. Or should I just post when I pull the trigger on one and get your feedback.

AM I WANTING TO TRADE OR MAKE MONEY? Now stuck on computer
Cheers
Steve
Yesterday’s regrets and tomorrows dreams are today’s opportunities
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