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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #19,521
  • Apr 22, 2009 5:33am Apr 22, 2009 5:33am
Quoting Arslan
Thanks "Time" for sharing your observations w.r.t CTs. I really appericiate that.

Any one can comment on the importance of News or fundamentals as compared to Technicals. In one of Phillips lesson i heard him saying that technicals are basically made up of fundamentals and the technicals are the true representation of what the people are thinking.

Initially i used to trade with news thinkin that i might be able to make more pips but suffered losses as the market never reacted as expected. But now i have started to believe more on technicals...
I myself only watching the equity indices (Nikkei, Stoxx50 and Dow Jones) movement in bloomberg. Their prediction/forecast are not working well.

If you want, maybe you should trade vice versa to their direction? That's up to you...but I don't want to trade based on news and forecast by some kind of "market experts" from bloomberg...they are creating more illusion than reality.
  • #19,522
  • Apr 22, 2009 7:56am Apr 22, 2009 7:56am
Afternoon all,

Right today is a big day for the GBP with the budget - This morning I went short on a TC (trend continuation) signal on the GBP/USD. Reasons for this trade are as follows:

1) Strong Bearish high wave candle close on the 4H, which closed below previous support.
2) Price action found resistance off the 21EMA on the 4H.
3) Retested top of channel trend line and failed to close above the 23.6% fib @ 1.4713
4) 1H closed under previous support @ 1.3188

Entry @ 1.4603
TP: 1.4340 (Just above 161% fib line)
Sl: 1.4720

Please have a look at the attached image. I will also be posting a video reviewing this trade...

Any questions as normal please ask.

Cheers WG
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp4h(22-04-09).jpg Size: 325 KB
  • #19,523
  • Apr 22, 2009 8:35am Apr 22, 2009 8:35am
An awesome trade congratulations!

Retracement soon?
  • #19,524
  • Apr 22, 2009 8:51am Apr 22, 2009 8:51am
Great work congrats
  • #19,525
  • Edited 9:04am Apr 22, 2009 8:53am | Edited 9:04am
Quoting DayTraderFX
Hey Palmer,

Thanks for the tip, I didn't look at it like that... So do you trade the EURUSD and USDJPY exclusively?

Thanks
These two pairs make up 99% of my trades, so I guess the answer is YES...Glad I could help.

WG: Nice!

Moved the stop down on the short to lock in just under 200 pips...Strong move up from here so we'll see what the next move might be...

Update:
Stopped out for 191 pips...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #19,526
  • Apr 22, 2009 9:33am Apr 22, 2009 9:33am
Cool Palmer, congrats on those 190 pips, what are ur new targets in term of long, i believe if it crosses 1.3050 then the new targets could be around 1.3200.

Orange your suggesstions on this also?
  • #19,527
  • Apr 22, 2009 9:54am Apr 22, 2009 9:54am
Quoting orangeRANGE
As per my H4 below, I think the price might revisit the S2 TL or at least 21EMA before it continue to the downside direction. If you look at the aqua vertical line, the RSI reading (19.1) also indicating that this pair is already oversold 6 bars ago...and the price still keep "moving" around fib 61.8%. If you ask me, I am not comfortable with this fib level now...
It seems EU goes as what I predicted yesterday.

The price now revisit the S2 TL (immediate res) and the fib 61.8% is now become the immediate support level. What a tricky level...

The Crude Oil Inventory (COI) is down compare to last week...maybe this is one of the reason that support the EU strength.

I think we might see EU in a ranging period again soon...just wait and see

Palmer: Nice 190pips

HAVE A LOOK AND MAKE YOUR OWN THOUGHT
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #19,528
  • Apr 22, 2009 12:51pm Apr 22, 2009 12:51pm
GBPUSD SELL at 1.4589
S/L 1.4681
T/P 1.4423 (attacking 200 SMA on H4 timefrime)

REASONS:
1) Break of TL
2) Jump & Back
3) TC singal 4H MACD and bounce from 21ema

Closed by T/P
Total 166 pips.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd(22 apr).gif Size: 27 KB
THINK LIKE A FUNDAMENTALIST; TRADE LIKE A TECHNICIAN
  • #19,529
  • Apr 22, 2009 5:02pm Apr 22, 2009 5:02pm
Quoting Arslan
Cool Palmer, congrats on those 190 pips, what are ur new targets in term of long, i believe if it crosses 1.3050 then the new targets could be around 1.3200.

Orange your suggesstions on this also?
I agree with oRange that we might range here for a little while...several bars. There has been a lack of red flag news this week but Thursday and Friday there are a few announcements coming out so be aware of those. Where I have the Fibs draw, we are right at teh 23.6 # and price has lingered there for the majority of the day. We had a close above the 21, but barely. I still have a bias to the downside. The first short target would be a retest of the current lows. If the daily closes below the current lows by a good bit then we could make it all the way down to the 2500 level. Not sure if we are that weak here or not though. Gotta let the charts tell us.

No positions open right now. The moving avg's are not flowing right now like they were in the shaded area, that's where I like to be. That double top (small blue line on the 4hr) is where I have an aubile alert set. If we break that we might make it to the 38.2 level on the Fib or about 3080...wait and see right now, especially this time of day...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #19,530
  • Apr 22, 2009 10:42pm Apr 22, 2009 10:42pm
Quoting Palmer
I agree with oRange that we might range here for a little while...several bars. There has been a lack of red flag news this week but Thursday and Friday there are a few announcements coming out so be aware of those. Where I have the Fibs draw, we are right at teh 23.6 # and price has lingered there for the majority of the day. We had a close above the 21, but barely. I still have a bias to the downside. The first short target would be a retest of the current lows. If the daily closes below the current lows by a good bit then we could make it all...
Very true Palmer, great analysis. i guess the best thing would be to hold our nerves and wait for some clear move.
  • #19,531
  • Edited 11:30pm Apr 22, 2009 11:17pm | Edited 11:30pm
Hello Palmer...hi all...

EU found resistance @ S2 TL right now. As per H4 below, I made the pink circle where the PA is a little bit out of steam right now. Potential RT macd but it is still too early to say that...we still need to wait a little while right now.

I zoomed out the H1 as I want to see the PA in this TF according to the H4 rhythm. The 3 dark green vertical lines are where I anticipate the price might ranging. Low @ 1.2900, mid @ 1.2980 and high @ 1.3070. Again, this is just my opinion.

Next week is the Fed rate announcement and the following week is the NFP. We should see a clearer direction afterward.

Your opinions/questions are most welcome.

HAVE A LOOK AND MAKE YOUR OWN THOUGHT
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: eu2.gif Size: 39 KB
  • #19,532
  • Apr 23, 2009 12:08am Apr 23, 2009 12:08am
Quoting orangeRANGE
Hello Palmer...hi all...

EU found resistance @ S2 TL right now. As per H4 below, I made the pink circle where the PA is a little bit out of steam right now. Potential RT macd but it is still too early to say that...we still need to wait a little while right now.

I zoomed out the H1 as I want to see the PA in this TF according to the H4 rhythm. The 3 dark green vertical lines [color=black]are where I anticipate the price...
Nice Orange, u did nice analysis, so u also recommend to hold our horses till we get a clear rythm of market??
  • #19,533
  • Apr 23, 2009 2:39am Apr 23, 2009 2:39am
waiting for triangle breakout
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #19,534
  • Apr 23, 2009 3:53am Apr 23, 2009 3:53am
Quoting bshadroo
waiting for triangle breakout

Goog Call!
THINK LIKE A FUNDAMENTALIST; TRADE LIKE A TECHNICIAN
  • #19,535
  • Apr 23, 2009 5:13am Apr 23, 2009 5:13am
hi guys,

seems it broke the 1.3050 and still pushin hard to go up. now it seems the candles headed for 89. what could be the max down move now as per the system cuz i seems support levels at 1.3000 have formed.
  • #19,536
  • Apr 23, 2009 5:14am Apr 23, 2009 5:14am
Something is cooking...
Breaking the triangle...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aussie (23 apr).gif Size: 20 KB
THINK LIKE A FUNDAMENTALIST; TRADE LIKE A TECHNICIAN
  • #19,537
  • Apr 23, 2009 5:24am Apr 23, 2009 5:24am
Hi everybody, I'm new to this system and to forex too... May I submit to some criticism my last trade ? It was profit, but my feel is I just had some lucky.

I entered long because of:

- Higher lows (apr 20, 16:00 gmt+1 & apr 22, 00:00)
- zero cross-over (apr 22, 16:00 gmt+1)

price 1.3029, SL 1.2954, TP 1.3099
SL little bit lower then EMA 8
Didn't wait the TP: I manually closed the trade few min ago, 28 pip profit.

Reviewing the trade after close, these are the reason that make me feel it was "lucky driven" trade:

- It is a CT trade
- The signal MACD bar (zero cross) is not very clear
- Higher lows are to far (?)
- 8 EMA is below 21 EMA, so that I'm against rhythm too (?)

Any other ?

Many thanks,
andy
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #19,538
  • Apr 23, 2009 5:39am Apr 23, 2009 5:39am
welcome andy,
i guess u used ur gut feelin to go for the trade, but am also new here and the system is really good. I am glad u made up some good profit . Palmer and Orange can be called as the Gurus of this system in this tread. I seek their advise quite occassionaly.
happy pip hunting
  • #19,539
  • Apr 23, 2009 6:37am Apr 23, 2009 6:37am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 0421halfover-2.gif Size: 50 KB


any comments are welcome,or somebody tell me where to exit????
  • #19,540
  • Apr 23, 2009 7:35am Apr 23, 2009 7:35am
Quoting Arslan
Nice Orange, u did nice analysis, so u also recommend to hold our horses till we get a clear rythm of market??
From I anticipated in my earlier post...EU is now resisted to the level that I call High @ 1.3070. You can see that in my H1 below.

It seems to me that this pair in an uptrend mode right now...but if you want to BUY this pair...I think you should wait the current H4 candle (see aqua vertical line) is coming back to the 21EMA or closed above the S2 (which is better for me).

Immediate resistance levels are:-
1) Fib 50%;
2) Price level 1.3100; &
3) 365EMA (H4)

So you should know where to exit once you made your entry (LONG) for this pair. I cannot tell you when you should buy/sell eitherway. That is your money so it is up to you when you want to enter the market.

Watch the PA in lower TF (H1) as well before you made any decision. It will help you to minimize your risk.

Hope this help.

Note: I still think that EU will keep moving within the pink channel that I made

HAVE A LOOK AND MAKE YOUR OWN THOUGHT
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.gif Size: 22 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eu2.gif Size: 26 KB
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