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  • #2,221
  • Apr 21, 2009 6:56pm Apr 21, 2009 6:56pm
Hi All,

For us small account holders, we have to think like we have a big account. Think like the big traders think, trade like the big traders do, be more selective to our trades.
  • #2,222
  • Apr 21, 2009 7:09pm Apr 21, 2009 7:09pm
Hi strat

I know you touched on momentum and volume earlier in the thread, and would like to know how significant they are in your analysis. With many pairs taking a breather before breaking out one way or the other examining the M&V to where price is now might give us a clue as to where the big money is.

The chart below of the cad (Not the best example I know) from the vertical line and swing high the downward price momentum is over a longer period compared to the rapid upward price action. The pin bar is showing larger volume than the previous large upward bar suggesting more support for going south, to be confirmed by PA of course.

Now I read somewhere that the big players in order to get the big money on need to create liquidity in the market, so if their objective is to go short they buy into the market drawing the heard (Me and bab g's bucket shop pals) to go long, being a zero some game giving them the opportunity to dump big time short.

So my question I guess is can M&V give us a clue to this action. Like the rapid long bar followed by a pin on larger volume on the cad chart.
I know I just joined the path of learning and have just ran way ahead of my self I feel a strat call of get bloody back here to the start..LOL
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Yesterday’s regrets and tomorrows dreams are today’s opportunities
  • #2,223
  • Apr 21, 2009 7:11pm Apr 21, 2009 7:11pm
See TL on Baba G's baby
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15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #2,224
  • Apr 21, 2009 7:54pm Apr 21, 2009 7:54pm
Better cj hammer than my daily Start but thats ok. I feel so cheap.
Long Oil and Dax, Short gold and loonie pins.
Emerging market collapse immanent as usd remains safe haven despite consumer absence for some time to come. Return of the aud and cad goodbye 3rd world.

some close to the chest plays here IMO.

The only easy thing in this business is the money.

just my 5 cents.....

nice trendline action seeing as they are in vogue.
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GOD IS NOT SHORT OF CASH
  • #2,225
  • Apr 21, 2009 8:07pm Apr 21, 2009 8:07pm
Here are some possible trades I am seeing tonight

EUR/GBP

We have a bearish inside bar. This might be a good place to get back in the bearish trend. I would enter below that purple line with an SL at the top of the bar, about 140 pips. Minor support at about .8720 then at .8650. The r/r is not that great unless price breaks those supports.

Another problem I have with this is that there is not a lot of confluence resistance at the top of the IB as it didn't quite reach the MA's and its not that strong of a resistance level. Although bearish momentum is on our side.

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EUR/AUD

Similar to EUR/GBP. Price has retested the strong level at 1.8580 - previous support has turned resistance. The BOSS MA's are turning down which is good. Depending on when you enter the SL needs to be quite large although there is not much support on the way down assuming it breaks the 1.8000 psycho.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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GBP/CHF

Bullish inside bar at confluence support + EMA's. Not a bad r/r, first target at 1.7500, about 200 pip stoploss about 350 take profit.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I also have IB's on upward channel support on usd/jpy and gbp/jpy, but gbp has too big of a risk for its potential profit and usd/jpy is facing strong resistance overhead so I wont post them.

Now am I going to trade any of these? I don't know, with inside bars I like to wait for a third bar to close above to confirm the trade, but with these long bars that might place us outside the acceptable risk level for these trades. Out of these pairs mentioned I like the eur/aud gbp/chf better although they are not perfect set ups.

Please give me some feedback on these setups.
  • #2,226
  • Apr 21, 2009 8:11pm Apr 21, 2009 8:11pm
Quoting haircut
HI Guys could you give your opinions on this chart. There is a possible pin forming on the daily usd/cad chart (it may not form a pin in which case I will not trade it but it could do in the next half hour or so). It is near a resistance line I have drawn, it is by the 38 fib and 61.8 fib of the last two down waves. However it would mean selling in to the boss 20 ma which puts me off. Any thoughts guys thanks
It needs to be a hammer not a pin bar for it to be valib Price Action. Wait for another bearish bar to close below the low of the "pin" and below both the 20 and BOSS 20 for confirmation. Then it should go lower.
Bang.
  • #2,227
  • Apr 21, 2009 8:26pm Apr 21, 2009 8:26pm
If I take this trade:

Sell stop should be under 20ema at 1.2290, SL 1.2514
TP1 @ 1.2240, move 2 and 3 to BE
TP2 @ 1.2202, move 3 to 1.2240
TP3 @ high of previous bar under 1.2240
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  • #2,228
  • Apr 21, 2009 8:27pm Apr 21, 2009 8:27pm
Quoting Naws
Here are some possible trades I am seeing tonight

EUR/GBP

We have a bearish inside bar. This might be a good place to get back in the bearish trend. I would enter below that purple line with an SL at the top of the bar, about 140 pips. Minor support at about .8720 then at .8650. The r/r is not that great unless price breaks those supports.

Another problem I have with this is that there is not a lot of confluence resistance at the top of ...
I'd say wait for another bar. I need some confirmation.
Bang.
  • #2,229
  • Apr 21, 2009 8:44pm Apr 21, 2009 8:44pm
Quoting Naws
Please give me some feedback on these setups.
I like Gbp Chf long and would play it IF I had an IB on my feed.
I would not enter under 1.7195 and and would look to 1.7275 for first obstacle. Given entries proximity to round number might want that to go first.
GOD IS NOT SHORT OF CASH
  • #2,230
  • Apr 21, 2009 10:19pm Apr 21, 2009 10:19pm
Long term trend is still down and 1.75 level is crucial to get the first indication that the trend is reversing (check your weekly chart for higher low (3/13 weekly low)/higher high (not yet until 1.75 is passed)).

Therefore I'll be watching PA around 1.75 level to open a new position (short or long).
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  • #2,231
  • Apr 21, 2009 10:50pm Apr 21, 2009 10:50pm
USDCAD

The Big Boss is slowly turning around and a strong push through 1.1800 level. 20ema crossed 50sma up, I checked last time they crossed, it went for 6000 pips. Ready for fat city.

The weekly also has strong leg up, 20ema has been holding price up.

Daily, price is again back above 1.2200 strong support level and 150ema is right below it. I don't think it worth to go short atm. I will look for PA @ 1.2200 to go long and that will also supported by the head and shoulder.
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  • #2,232
  • Apr 21, 2009 11:24pm Apr 21, 2009 11:24pm
Big Boss and Boss are trending sideways after an up move of off the weekly hammer (Nov 4, 2007).
The top of the channel is is at Resistance (around 1.3000) and the bottom is at support (around 1.1850).
The Daily has been trending down from the top of the channel towards the bottom (currently at 1.2370).

If I was going to take a trade, I would be selling on a break of the Shooting Star, but I am concerned about first support (1.2200-1.2250) being to close to my entry (1.2320). Risk is much too high compared to reward.

My demo account's smallest trade size is mini ($10,000), so I cannot take this trade anyway due to risk % (keeping my risk to 3% or less).

This looks like a decent short opportunity, but doesn't look like an A trade to me. Attached are my charts and notes.
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  • #2,233
  • Apr 22, 2009 12:10am Apr 22, 2009 12:10am
Quoting strat
I will preface this by stating that there is NO CORRECT way to draw TLs and the way I draw them supports MY analysis and MY methods and that is all that matters to me.

If you don’t like the way I draw my TLs, no problem, but don’t anyone waste their time trying to tell me how THEY think it should be done.

[font=Arial]Most of my analysis is based on the CLOSE of bars or closing prices in general. Most of the time I disregard the tails and wicks on candles as being either over shoots by...
Hmmmmm using the close o the bars, my tl is just like Pi's TL.
Now I got it!!

see attached.

thanks!!
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  • #2,234
  • Apr 22, 2009 6:12am Apr 22, 2009 6:12am
Not feeling quite so cheap now.
Oh yeah of little faith

This is not about a 4hr chart so don't even think about it unless you are well on the path of learning. But for those of you who know, and I know who you are ,a little bit more inner thigh/slap on the back however you like it from the swami raag

FTB=First time back.
OSGN=Om Shri Gurudev Namaha.
GOD IS NOT SHORT OF CASH
  • #2,235
  • Apr 22, 2009 6:13am Apr 22, 2009 6:13am
chart might help
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GOD IS NOT SHORT OF CASH
  • #2,236
  • Apr 22, 2009 8:10am Apr 22, 2009 8:10am
Quoting One14
Big Boss and Boss are trending sideways after an up move of off the weekly hammer (Nov 4, 2007).
The top of the channel is is at Resistance (around 1.3000) and the bottom is at support (around 1.1850).
The Daily has been trending down from the top of the channel towards the bottom (currently at 1.2370).

If I was going to take a trade, I would be selling on a break of the Shooting Star, but I am concerned about first support (1.2200-1.2250) being to close to my entry (1.2320). Risk is much too high compared to reward.

My demo account's smallest...
Great charts and input, are you sure you're not a 115?
  • #2,237
  • Apr 22, 2009 8:26am Apr 22, 2009 8:26am
This is why we should wait for confirmation on IB's

All those inside bars I mentioned yesterday broke to the opposite side, if you entered a trade on those you might be facing some losses
  • #2,238
  • Apr 22, 2009 10:02am Apr 22, 2009 10:02am
USDCAD is looking interesting. Mind, still some time until close. I'll take a look later tonight so just posting some thoughts IF it closes where we would like it to.

Daily ma's are pointing down, 20 below the 50.

We're at the boss 20 now, so a big support to get through. Then there's the daily 20 just below.

Yesterdays bar was a bit inconclusive. On the face of it, it looks nice but the close left too long a shadow. Increased volume though.

Now if today can close much closer to 12300 creating a shooting star I would be interested, but only on a break of the 20 and boss 20. So entry would be at 12280.

First support at the very important 12200 level so half off there and the rest to BE. Ultimately I'd look for the 11850 support so probably close out at 11900 for safety.

However, if it doesn't close as I would like, its a pass. Simple and easy.

TonyH
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  • #2,239
  • Apr 22, 2009 11:31am Apr 22, 2009 11:31am
Quoting One14
Big Boss and Boss are trending sideways after an up move of off the weekly hammer (Nov 4, 2007).
The top of the channel is is at Resistance (around 1.3000) and the bottom is at support (around 1.1850).
The Daily has been trending down from the top of the channel towards the bottom (currently at 1.2370).

If I was going to take a trade, I would be selling on a break of the Shooting Star, but I am concerned about first support (1.2200-1.2250) being to close to my entry (1.2320). Risk is much too high compared to reward.

My demo account's smallest...
I like your analysis and completely agree, the shooting star is potential entry BUT as you say we are sellling directly into support. I have passed on this one myself even though think price will go down 100 pips or so from playing the break of shooting star

But I refrain as I learnt from 2 previous trades about trading directly into support. Also Strat will tell me off and Ill have to give money to Baba G
  • #2,240
  • Apr 22, 2009 11:47am Apr 22, 2009 11:47am
Quoting patrick25
Hi All,

For us small account holders, we have to think like we have a big account. Think like the big traders think, trade like the big traders do, be more selective to our trades.
Be careful with this. I know Jim of J16 pushes this but he makes his money loading up the $/pip on small pip runs.

This can work to your disadvantage IF you are looking to stay in a trend.

This is NOT a criticism of Jim or J16 in any way shape or form - there are many ways to make money from the market and we each have our own different ways. One man's meat is another man's poison.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
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