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  • #11,021
  • Apr 21, 2009 11:28am Apr 21, 2009 11:28am
Quoting pipeye
Could I ask you how you would trade this pattern. Are you looking to go short 1.4777 area and long in the 1.4394 area?
Hi PIPEYE,

I would be interested in a short above the 1.4800 level. There are a number of levels there: the Figure itself, the 79% retracement of the current swing, the left shoulder of the H&S, and perhaps a "bucket" buried inside the head somewhere. We will just have to wait and see what materializes.

And of course, price does have to overcome the 4777 resistance, a line that most people have on their charts, I suspect.

SR
  • #11,022
  • Edited 12:13pm Apr 21, 2009 11:42am | Edited 12:13pm
One to note for another day

12180-12152

RBS
TF
61
R
S

In the short term watch: -

12300
RBS
TF
00
38
TL
  • #11,023
  • Apr 21, 2009 11:49am Apr 21, 2009 11:49am
Quoting seattlerust
Hi PIPEYE,

I would be interested in a short above the 1.4800 level. There are a number of levels there: the Figure itself, the 79% retracement of the current swing, the left shoulder of the H&S, and perhaps a "bucket" buried inside the head somewhere. We will just have to wait and see what materializes.

And of course, price does have to overcome the 4777 resistance, a line that most people have on their charts, I suspect.

SR
Just trying to grasp this concept. The left shoulder retraced 50% and the right shoulder base is 127%. With those two retracement values recorded, is there then a common retracement for the top of the right shoulder(i.e. 50%, 62%, or 79%). Sorry for all the questions.
  • #11,024
  • Apr 21, 2009 11:49am Apr 21, 2009 11:49am
And another: -

11547- 11500

RBS
TF
00
50
R
S
TL
  • #11,025
  • Apr 21, 2009 12:01pm Apr 21, 2009 12:01pm
Quoting seattlerust
Hare is the Head and Shoulders GBPUSD, also on the 4 Hour chart. Sorry for all the lines.

SR
I see the head and a shoulder on the left... and a bump to the right... is that the other 'shoulder' you are talking about?

To my untrained eye I would totally overlook that...
  • #11,026
  • Apr 21, 2009 12:25pm Apr 21, 2009 12:25pm
Quoting seattlerust
Hi PIPEYE,

I would be interested in a short above the 1.4800 level. There are a number of levels there: the Figure itself, the 79% retracement of the current swing, the left shoulder of the H&S, and perhaps a "bucket" buried inside the head somewhere. We will just have to wait and see what materializes.

And of course, price does have to overcome the 4777 resistance, a line that most people have on their charts, I suspect.

SR
Would this be an example of a Bullish Gartley?
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  • #11,027
  • Apr 21, 2009 2:07pm Apr 21, 2009 2:07pm
Quoting pipeye
Would this be an example of a Bullish Gartley?
Many would say yes to this. I am a little more of an idealist on this pattern and would rather see the X-A leg (the first leg up) to be more direct. By that I mean without the significant retracement in the middle. But, as I said, lots of people would ignore my complaint and play it as you see it. The AB=CD relationship is often thought more important than the X-A leg being direct as well.

Lots of thoughts about what makes a good Gartley and what causes it to fail. I posted an article on this a while back. You might search for it if you are interested in pursuing this further.

SR
  • #11,028
  • Apr 21, 2009 2:10pm Apr 21, 2009 2:10pm
[quote=Concept;2684745]I see the head and a shoulder on the left... and a bump to the right... is that the other 'shoulder' you are talking about? /quote]

Thr right shoulder has not formed yet. It may never form. We will just have to wait and see.

SR
  • #11,029
  • Apr 21, 2009 2:26pm Apr 21, 2009 2:26pm
Quoting seattlerust
Many would say yes to this. I am a little more of an idealist on this pattern and would rather see the X-A leg (the first leg up) to be more direct. By that I mean without the significant retracement in the middle. But, as I said, lots of people would ignore my complaint and play it as you see it. The AB=CD relationship is often thought more important than the X-A leg being direct as well.

Lots of thoughts about what makes a good Gartley and what causes it to fail. I posted an article on this a while back. You might search for it if you are interested...
I'll search for it. Thanks a lot for the feedback.
  • #11,030
  • Apr 21, 2009 3:19pm Apr 21, 2009 3:19pm
just shorted AUDJPY. Classic setup
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  • #11,031
  • Apr 21, 2009 3:37pm Apr 21, 2009 3:37pm
Quoting seagreen
just shorted AUDJPY. Classic setup
Good call, hopefully it works out!
"The markets are the greatest chess match ever played."
  • #11,032
  • Apr 21, 2009 3:56pm Apr 21, 2009 3:56pm
Quoting seagreen
just shorted AUDJPY. Classic setup
The MOST classis setup.
Do you always trade AUDJPY?
  • #11,033
  • Apr 21, 2009 4:08pm Apr 21, 2009 4:08pm
Quoting forexpalm7
The MOST classis setup.
Do you always trade AUDJPY?
Not really, but this trade looks good...
I think any pair can be traded using this technique, the only issue is that some unusual crosses need higher timeframes, like 4hr minimum
  • #11,034
  • Apr 21, 2009 7:04pm Apr 21, 2009 7:04pm
This is my only chart for the day. GBPUSD. You can see a flag formation which is on my line and usually continues the upward trend when it breaks so my target is 841, but probably stop around 744 so will have to see if it has enough momentum to go through.Dont like how slow this session can be but like the position of this at the moment so will probably have to sit on it all day, but with stop in can still do other things while it cooks.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #11,035
  • Apr 21, 2009 7:22pm Apr 21, 2009 7:22pm
I am always amazed at how predictive and powerful BRV's method is.

In my earlier post last night, I took the EUR trade off what I thought was support at 1.2903 and guessed that it would go to the 1.2993 resistance stemming from a previous high off a spike back in february....

Well....this trade worked out perfect right to the pip!!! Not the 150+ pip target that we hope for but I'll take the 90 pips.

This is not to toot my own horn cause like I said, I still struggle at identifying proper S+R (usually way too many on my charts) but it's just to let anyone know that still doubt BRV's method that it does work. Just have faith.

I don't always get it right and struggle alot in drawing proper S+R but RC's post is very helpful.

A question that I have for some of the more seasoned experts here...

How do you all balance what the S+R's are telling you against PA relationships between pairs?

For example: EUR and Swissy usually are polar opposites 90% of the time. So if I'm expecting swissy to drop to the 1.1608-1.1600 level soon, in my mind, that would mean that I should expect EUR to go up as well. Of course not in a 1:1 ratio but just in general.

Same goes with the GBP and the EUR which usually head in the same general direction but to a lesser extent than the EUR/swissy.
  • #11,036
  • Apr 21, 2009 7:31pm Apr 21, 2009 7:31pm
Quoting seagreen
just shorted AUDJPY. Classic setup
Closed for a roughly 60 pips profit since this was a counter trend trade.
  • #11,037
  • Apr 21, 2009 7:36pm Apr 21, 2009 7:36pm
Quoting Pip2It

How do you all balance what the S+R's are telling you against PA relationships between pairs?
Trade what you see, not what you know.

SR
  • #11,038
  • Edited 8:07pm Apr 21, 2009 8:03pm | Edited 8:07pm
Morning,

Geppy moved right up there yesterday and it seems to have met a nice area of ressitance which i've shorted from 14500 level. Also euro/Gbp looks like it might be ready for a break out if the 800 level goes with a bang, this level seems a little used and abused so orders are in.
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  • #11,039
  • Apr 21, 2009 9:05pm Apr 21, 2009 9:05pm
Quoting seagreen
Not really, but this trade looks good...
I think any pair can be traded using this technique, the only issue is that some unusual crosses need higher timeframes, like 4hr minimum
Good point you mention here, I agree.
  • #11,040
  • Apr 21, 2009 9:57pm Apr 21, 2009 9:57pm
EUR next move?

Target = 1.2800
Former R turned S
72.6 Fib Level
Double 00's
Currently forming small bear flag
Trend is down

http://i267.photobucket.com/albums/i...-20daily-1.gif

http://i267.photobucket.com/albums/i...ninc/eu4hr.gif

Bear flag sits on the 1.2900 level.

Will take a short on a break below 1.2900. 100 pip target.

1.2945 SL (half of bear flag) for a 3:1 RR.

If this level fails, next stop bottom of the bucket @ 1.2676 ????

Any thoughts?
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