4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

Here they are...

Hi all...

After the price break below S2 TL yesterday...it seems that this pair was almost extremely oversold (as shown in H4 below). Price is now stalling @ 8EMA (H4) and might retest the immediate resistance levels...the fib 61.8% and S2 TL before it continue downside direction.

However, the market is not yet oversold as per D1. The RSI in H4 surely help us for not too much of selling EU yesterday.

I am still keeping the pink channel as before because I think EU will still rhythming within it.

Looking ahead, the price level 1.2900 and fib 76.4% as the immediate support levels.

Your comments/questions are most welcome.

Note:
RSI is not helpful to make an entry, but it is the best indicator to remind us how "strong/weak" the market is...

HAVE A LOOK AND MAKE YOUR OWN THOUGHT

Hello everybody

I am new to forex and i am reading this thread as a learning tool (currently at page 97)

Seems to me all the pairs ( i look at eur/usd, eur/gbp and gbp/usd) dont know where to go. Eur/usd found support on the trendline, eur/gbp on the 0.8900 and gbp/usd on the 1.4500. Or am i missing something? I have trouble seeing any trades lately. What do you guys think will happen?

I would like to thank everybody who made this thread. It helped and is still helping me alot. Especially to see and anticipate the motion of the market.

good luck everybody

Hi orangeRange, are all indicators required to explore on Philip's system listed on Post 1 already? Does it include those new ones you mentioned?

Thanks

Those new ones were introduced by Palmer. You should thanks to him because it made your chart become more colourful and useful.

I use MT Mobile with IBFX. It works great. Drains the battery quickly but that's to be expected.

Thanks Orange for the files,

Well i need help here guys, now as we see that the 4hr bar has crossed the 21 and as far as i think this bar also formed a shottin star so as per the system an uptrend is expected however if we consider the shottin star (if it is one) then the rythm will remain the same (i.e downtrend) in near future. please correct me with this if i am wrong.

Arslan...

As per my H4 below, I think the price might revisit the S2 TL or at least 21EMA before it continue to the downside direction. If you look at the aqua vertical line, the RSI reading (19.1) also indicating that this pair is already oversold 6 bars ago...and the price still keep "moving" around fib 61.8%. If you ask me, I am not comfortable with this fib level now.

Even though the previous candle (X) is somekind of evening star (long upper wick), maybe you should stay on the sideline before making any decision to trade this pair.

I think the economic news release by ZEW today also giving some positive result to EU too.

By the way, H1 below gives clearer view on P.A.

Anybody who want to add his/her comments or have any question is most welcome.

HAVE A LOOK AND MAKE YOUR OWN THOUGHT

Very nice overview Orange, yes i am not gettin into any trade until things get clear.

Well Mr Phillips hardly gave any lessons on CT, and as i was reading the previous posts Palmer also discouraged them, did any one in this thread did any research on CT on this system. I mean i had to wait weeks before things got feasible for trading as per this system, but if there are any tricks for CT then we may start making more pips, though in much smaller numbers but more frequently.

oRange: Nice stuff....I agree with the oversold state right now.

Still holding the short from 3216. The 8ema price gap was filled earlier so we'll see how the next leg down goes. I had a short entry with a lower timeframe today and took out 75% for a nice handful of pips and the remaining 25% is at b/e; the second vertical line. If we retest the lows I'll move the initial entry stop down closer to the 21. If we break through the lows then look out below...

Hi Guys,

I Thought I'd start sharing my trade ideas to make sure I am looking at the right stuff since I am new to this system. Needless to say any help would be much appreciated.

I saw that both the EURUSD and USDCHF look to be setting up quite nicely with some strong Rhythm (I think).

You can see for both they are the ema's are set nicely and they have broken away from the range and are in the process of pulling back to the 8 and 21.

Now my understanding is that anywhere around here if I were to get a TC signal I should take the trade, is that right?

I agree with you. Nice little bear flag setting up at the moment, right up against the 21; candles nice and small suggesting price knows what it wants to do (vs. big up and down candles jumping around)...and if you look at the price itself there is something of a rounding downwards again. I'm watching closely.

BenStevo...Nice observation on the formation along with the 'normal' size candles...

DayTraderFX..Correct analysis. The only 'issue' I see is that if the market decides to do a 180 and go against you, taking a position in both the EURUSD and the USDCHF per your direction and because these two pairs move inversely of each other, that would result in two losing trades. But, on the other hand, if your right, two winners

I prefer the EURUSD and the USDJPY since they move independently of each other.

Just my 2 pips...http://www.fxtradeblog.com

Thanks Palmer. I'm in short on E/U since 1.2940. I liked the evening star on H1, together with a head and shoulder pattern on both MACD and price (H1 TF again) - the head and shoulder are a little vague, but I like where they have occurred.
1st TP 1.2900
SL broken into two parts: SL1 = 1.2970, SL2 = 1.3005.

Hello All,

My targets from my first trade were all hit at the 1.2910 price point. I waited to see if price fills the gap and it did more than that and tried to test the 21ema before turning around, I also am short after that move as we might see a test of the lows and once they are broken, as Palmer states, "look out below"..........

Just to point out a few things as I forgot who asked about the CT trades but just wanted to give my observations.

CT trades are always riskier trades and that is why Phillip did not spend a lot of time to mention CT trades. As with everything in life, there are riskier actions than others in what decisions we make. Just as every trade within the trend is not a high probability trade, same could be said with CT trades. With my backtesting and observations, what I have noticed is that there are high probability trades that can be taken against the trend (counter trend) You have to also pick and choose which ones you want to take on as you do with the trend trades.

I have noticed two major high probability elements within the CT:
1) Firstly, it is not a high probability trade to take on CT trades from the open of the European session and the north american session
2) The high probability CT trades as I have observed occurs after the close of the North American markets until the beginning of the start of the European markets.

The reasons for this:
Within these hours, there seems to be profit taking as some traders are taking some of or all of their positions off of the table. This creates a retracement usually to fill the gap or a close beyond the 21ema.

There are two types of CT trades I engage in if I ever take on a CT trade:
1) One is when price is on a nice trend riding the 8ema and there happens to be a huge gap created away from the 8ema and if has not yet been filled and the US markets are about to close and there are confluence of events that the gap will be filled, I might look into taking on that CT trade back to the 8ema. This is not a trade for you to look for a lot of pips. We are talking about 15-30 pip trade and paying close attention to the trade. So if you are going to be away for hours, I do not take on the trade.

2) Second and the what I believe is a high probability CT trade is when after a nice run up or down, price finally closes beyond the 21ema. As our method, when price closes beyond the 21ema, price comes back to the 21ema or the 8ema before heading down to the 89sma. This is where I would take on what I believe is a high probability trade and that's for two reasons.
1) After a nice trend, when price stalls and closes beyond the 21ema, a lot of trades also are thinking of taking and closing their positions just like you and I are thus is is going to drive the price to the 89sma, and as price moves away from the 21ema and to the 89sma, trades that are still in the trade feel that price is not going the other way and they will sell off just like many traders are and this will make price come down to the 89sma which is what we are looking for. This of course is not the case for every trade but usually what happens.
2)Back testing and looking at charts, I have observed that as the method states, there is a very good chance when price closes beyond the 21ema, it will most likely test the 89sma before making it's mind in what direction to go.

These are in my opinion the high probability CT trades and they are by no means for anyone to trade what I have observed as I encourage anyone new to trade CT trades as I myself do not take a lot of CT trades and I believe I had just one this year that I posted a few weeks back. I will share with you guys when I do make a CT trade and will post the reasons for my trade.


I hope this helps

Regards

Dude...you popped out here once in a while with some great opinions...I appreciate that man...this should really help the newbies especially...KIT

Hi all...

It just flat...flat...and flat EU since yesterday....and, the fib 61.8% is still holding its Res level....so far...

It's hard to use H1 entry right now...will have to look at lower TF to find early entry signal...otherwise just stay on the sideline until the "angle" is in a great degree...

Your ideas/opinions are most welcome.

HAVE A LOOK AND MAKE YOUR OWN THOUGHT

Bro...

You made another entry @ second vert line? Your mt4 GMT offset is different with mine...so I am not sure if that second entry is in a good run right now? Look doubtful to me...

Any other reason to tell? I'm curious...

Thanks "Time" for sharing your observations w.r.t CTs. I really appericiate that.

Any one can comment on the importance of News or fundamentals as compared to Technicals. In one of Phillips lesson i heard him saying that technicals are basically made up of fundamentals and the technicals are the true representation of what the people are thinking.

Initially i used to trade with news thinkin that i might be able to make more pips but suffered losses as the market never reacted as expected. But now i have started to believe more on technicals as they represent the thinking of masses.

Moreover, i dont wana offend any one but channels/websites like bloom**** also misguide traders by letting people anticipate wrong future trends. Most of the time the predictions made by their so called analyst are wrong. But people like me who are new are forced to believe them due to lack of confidence.

But coming back to the point that can we trade without fundamentals, i believe yes. And with great peace of mind.

Comments and suggesstions are most welcome guys.

Hey Palmer,

Thanks for the tip, I didn't look at it like that... So do you trade the EURUSD and USDJPY exclusively?

Thanks