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No Brainer Trades

  • #10,981
  • Apr 21, 2009 5:07am Apr 21, 2009 5:07am
Just read there is an option expiry level at 950 which is a real pain.
  • #10,982
  • Apr 21, 2009 5:26am Apr 21, 2009 5:26am
Just want to post something I notice time and again as a thought for anyone contemplating a short audusd. The audjpy has had quite a drop along with the other jps and is now turning up. When it rises so does aussie. Because it had fallen quite a way and because of the turn up along with the euro and gbp even if not a lot, it will mean aud short will be awfully slow if it falls, and it may not fall at all yet. Just something to watch. I personally watch the audjpy to confirm direction.
  • #10,983
  • Edited 5:56am Apr 21, 2009 5:45am | Edited 5:56am
Quoting Tori
Just want to post something I notice time and again as a thought for anyone contemplating a short audusd. The audjpy has had quite a drop along with the other jps and is now turning up. When it rises so does aussie. Because it had fallen quite a way and because of the turn up along with the euro and gbp even if not a lot, it will mean aud short will be awfully slow if it falls, and it may not fall at all yet. Just something to watch. I personally watch the audjpy to confirm direction.
Hi Tori, thanks for your chart and heads-up. Yes, aussie is a bit slow and currently stuck at a local support; because of this, I have taken some profit and moved my SL to around BE. By the way, I am learning to watch correlated pairs too.

Taking some profit seems to screw my RR, but it makes me feel better psychologically. Trade management is something I am working on.
  • #10,984
  • Apr 21, 2009 5:57am Apr 21, 2009 5:57am
Good for getting some profit in a slow spot. I too have to work on RR and am finding it easier by adhering to what we are told constantly. That the best trades are the ones that have reached stronger and further levels. In that way when you look at correlated charts you can see then all twitching as they get ready to turn around and each helps to confirm the other. Problem is on a really slow night it is tempting to take a lesser trade which of course not only lowers the return, but adds more risk. 6949 for buy on aussie if other charts look like turning up then too. eurjpy, nzdusd, gbp, usdjpy. They are all moving down a little and as they have been all stopping at their respective lines I would be watching them all from there. And it is turn of hour so that can change things too.
  • #10,985
  • Apr 21, 2009 6:29am Apr 21, 2009 6:29am
About trade management.

I took GPB/USD short @ 1.4587. My target was 1.4500.

It passed a minor support area around 1.4540. After that I placed stop above that area to 1.4547. Now I'm out with 40pips.

Is this generally a good strategy to protect some pips with stoploss when price arrives near TP? Or would it be better to just keep the stop at BE and wait and see if the target hits?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #10,986
  • Apr 21, 2009 6:45am Apr 21, 2009 6:45am
At the risk of talking too much I will give an opinion on the gbpusd trade you asked about. For starters you took a sell trade from over the line I have at 579. Now it was likely to drop a little but it could also have just come and sat on that line and then moved up again, so risky sell for me. Also it had been hanging around there for all day. I would have preferred to wait for either a drop to lower line at476 where it has had clean bounces up, now attempting to go lower, or I would have waited to see it come through top line and taken a buy from there. Either way you lucked out getting some pips.
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  • #10,987
  • Apr 21, 2009 6:54am Apr 21, 2009 6:54am
Quoting fx-Junior
Is this generally a good strategy to protect some pips with stoploss when price arrives near TP? Or would it be better to just keep the stop at BE and wait and see if the target hits?
I've contemplated this myself, I think it's definitely better to move your SL up when the trade comes close to TP. If you think hypothetically, your TP is +100 and trade is currently at +90. The trade could either stop and retreat until it hits your SL or continues on to TP.

If the trade does reverse ask yourself, is it worth risking the X pips set by your SL for 10 pips more? e.g. is there any sense in leaving your SL at +50 if your trade goes to +90 and TP is only 10 pips away at +100? I would have moved my SL to +70 or even +80 to protect the pips.

This should be taken as an example only and you should really test it out for yourself. If you find you are constantly missing your TP maybe move the SL closer to TP when price approaches your TP and vice versa if you are constanlty getting stopped out and never hitting TP.

And remember "A pip in the hand is worth two in the bush.."


This is my take on it, please feel free to correct me.
  • #10,988
  • Apr 21, 2009 7:07am Apr 21, 2009 7:07am
Watched the video on drawing S/R on the blog, was excellent. I noticed on the video BRV skipped the Daily and 4 hourly TF's Is the thinking that Monthly/Weekly/Hourly are the same for everyone? I've attached my EUR chart looking for bounce off of 2900 or 2990.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
  • #10,989
  • Apr 21, 2009 7:08am Apr 21, 2009 7:08am
This looks interesting if other charts confirm.
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  • #10,990
  • Apr 21, 2009 7:08am Apr 21, 2009 7:08am
Talking about trade management, anyone here does not use a TP at all, just use a trailing stop of some kind (can be manual trail, i.e., tightening stop manually from time to time)? Isn't it true that with this approach the profit can run to its maximum? What do you think?
  • #10,991
  • Apr 21, 2009 7:11am Apr 21, 2009 7:11am
I prefer the idea of trailing a stop, MT4 has a EA that does it for you, and you can set a move to BE also. It's finding the best number of pips to trail, not to close that it gets stopped often and not to far away that you dont lock in good profit. 30-50 pips?
Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
  • #10,992
  • Apr 21, 2009 7:19am Apr 21, 2009 7:19am
Quoting Tori
At the risk of talking too much I will give an opinion on the gbpusd trade you asked about. For starters you took a sell trade from over the line I have at 579. Now it was likely to drop a little but it could also have just come and sat on that line and then moved up again, so risky sell for me. Also it had been hanging around there for all day. I would have preferred to wait for either a drop to lower line at476 where it has had clean bounces up, now attempting to go lower, or I would have waited to see it come through top line and taken a buy...
Thanks for your post!
Definitely not A-trade or even B, I admit. I entered the trade after 15M bar had touched 1.4603 level and retraced quickly to 1.4587. So it was visible that there were more sellers. Also risk/reward offered was decent with 25pips stop.

Clearly I'm too impatient. I just become frustrated if there haven't been nice opportunities for some time, and then I pull the trigger in places like this. But maybe I'll learn.
  • #10,993
  • Apr 21, 2009 7:22am Apr 21, 2009 7:22am
Here is my GBP chart. As a newer BRV trader I guess concentrating on maybe Eur and GBP is enough to get started?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
  • #10,994
  • Apr 21, 2009 7:30am Apr 21, 2009 7:30am
Quoting fx-Junior
Thanks for your post!
Definitely not A-trade or even B, I admit. I entered the trade after 15M bar had touched 1.4603 level and retraced quickly to 1.4587. So it was visible that there were more sellers. Also risk/reward offered was decent with 25pips stop.

Clearly I'm too impatient. I just become frustrated if there haven't been nice opportunities for some time, and then I pull the trigger in places like this. But maybe I'll learn.
Remember the definition of a No Brainer trade? 90%+ probability.

How are you measuring the strength/probability of your set ups? I notice a few others are using my simple format of S/R, 50Fib, TL, 000 etc. but are you really measuring the probability of each position?

I'll post my interpretation of a 90% trades later and your input is welcome.
  • #10,995
  • Apr 21, 2009 7:41am Apr 21, 2009 7:41am
Quoting RedCabbage
Remember the definition of a No Brainer trade? 90%+ probability.

How are you measuring the strength/probability of your set ups? I notice a few others are using my simple format of S/R, 50Fib, TL, 000 etc. but are you really measuring the probability of each position?

I'll post my interpretation of a 90% trades later and your input is welcome.
That is a really good point! One thing which i need to learn!

Looking foward to read your words...
  • #10,996
  • Apr 21, 2009 7:47am Apr 21, 2009 7:47am
Hmm first trade using this method, go stopped out -25 pips, the resistance line didnt hold. GBP sell at 4580, with trailing stop of 20, got stopped out at 4604 although it didn't seem to hit it and got stoppped out.
Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
  • #10,997
  • Apr 21, 2009 7:55am Apr 21, 2009 7:55am
Quoting RedCabbage
Remember the definition of a No Brainer trade? 90%+ probability.

How are you measuring the strength/probability of your set ups? I notice a few others are using my simple format of S/R, 50Fib, TL, 000 etc. but are you really measuring the probability of each position?

I'll post my interpretation of a 90% trades later and your input is welcome.
That would be great to see!

I know that some trades are more likely to profit than some other trades, but I'ts hard to identify if the set up is like fairly good or excellent. I believe I can find set ups that are 90% probablity, but I identify them like once a month. I have studied trading more seriously just for 2-3 months, so I don't have experience that much.
  • #10,998
  • Apr 21, 2009 8:08am Apr 21, 2009 8:08am
Quoting markmm
Hmm first trade using this method, go stopped out -25 pips, the resistance line didnt hold. GBP sell at 4580, with trailing stop of 20, got stopped out at 4604 although it didn't seem to hit it and got stoppped out.
Wasnt the level at 4600? I shorted from there and was in profit very quickly.
  • #10,999
  • Apr 21, 2009 8:33am Apr 21, 2009 8:33am
Quoting RedCabbage

I'll post my interpretation of a 90% trades later and your input is welcome.
Here is one I think would be 90% trade?

Selling EUR/USD 1.3072-1.3102.

-Strong S+R
-2 fibs from different waves (50+38.2)
-.00

What do you think?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #11,000
  • Edited 9:15am Apr 21, 2009 8:50am | Edited 9:15am
As far as I am concerned pretty much everything you need to know to trade this way is in BRV's pdf. So always try to answer any queries there first.

We should all be looking for confirmation/validation of our s/r levels on top of BRV's rules for picking the most visually obvious s/r. The main ones being Fibs and TLs. If like me you actually write a daily plan it is very easy to rate your upcoming price levels based on the other confirming factors. This way when price finally arrives at xxxx price you can very quickly see why you were so keen on that level so many hours ago and take the trade without hesitation.

You should really use what works for you, but this is what I look for: -

SBR/RBS - Support becomes resistance and vice versa (or level was previously both S + R)

TF - The higher the timeframe the more significant the level. This can also help us in our trade management. As trades taken from short term s/r will generally have a shorter run.

000 - Round numbers. We're human we like them. (traders are human too!)

23/38/50/61/78 - Fibonacci. Higher TF Fib levels carry more weight.

R -Reaction. How did price behave last time it was here? Wicks at a swing high/low or a strong break out suggest a strong reaction this time too.

S - Space. It's all in the pdf. A nice big arc gives us lots of space and time around our trade.

TL - Trend lines are also s/r so they can be used both sides just like horizontal s/r. Higher TF the better.

BB - Bucket bottoms. A favourite of mine, bucket bottoms are a point of very strong former s/r. SBR/RBS here too.

F - Fundamentals/News. Keep one ear on the market sentiment and upcoming announcements to ensure you are not about to sail into the wind.

PA - Price action, the last thing to consider. If PA is in your favour, great, if the cross is moving like an express train generally it is best to stand back.


Market concensus. This is the reason why this sort of confirmation of trades works.

There we go that's 10 conditions so I can crudely say:-

USDCHF 11780-11831
SBR
TF
000
78
R
S
BB

We could call that 70% at least.

It's only my take on things, it doesn't have to be this complicated.
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