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  • #10,961
  • Apr 20, 2009 5:23pm Apr 20, 2009 5:23pm
Quoting RedCabbage
Everyone must do what suits them and works for them best of course but I've got some useful analysis of trade mgt. in the last few months based on RR, total pips available and TP levels.

I've also got some views on the measurement of our 90% probability.

The more researched proven options we have on the table the better.

This trading method is a bit like snowboarding, you can learn 80% of it very quickly. The last 20% takes a lot more skill and effort but is well worth it.

Many of us are at a stage now where very small things can make a...
Would be much appreciated if you do.
  • #10,962
  • Apr 20, 2009 5:32pm Apr 20, 2009 5:32pm
Quoting guess121
Pull up E/G daily chart... go long... happy pipping.

Regards,
vip
i like it - no brainer.

cheers!

p.s.thought you meant ej. i'll take a look at eg.
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  • #10,963
  • Apr 20, 2009 5:48pm Apr 20, 2009 5:48pm
More trade management options are available to you the more screen time you can give your trading.

BRV advised someone earlier who hasn't got a lot of time at the screen to go back to the core principles of his system and look for the very best levels with Risk:Reward of 1:3+, set some orders, 50 pip stop losses and target 150 pips. Really any of us can do this and in mathematical terms it is the easiest way to ensure profitability as we can breakeven if you are only right 25% of the time. The main benefit is that we are getting more mileage out of each entry that we take as demonstrated by BRV's favourite post.

However many traders are keen to take pips off the table as and when they are available especially when the market is this unpredictable! If I see price action I don't like or news I hadn't accounted for you can be sure I'll bank the pips too.

As an intraday trader using 1hr as my core timeframe, I monitor the typical trend and counter trend moves of each pair I trade so that my trade targets are achievable, coupled with general observations as to how the market is moving this allows me to choose when to hold and when to close. Of course I am fortunate enough to be able to have a lot of screen time so my choices are greater.

The best compromise has to be the option to split your trades so that some profit is taken at the 1st TP level maybe some at the 2nd and a portion left to run with a safe stop. The problem is that your RR is drastically reduced and harder to monitor.

For example; -
2 lots opened with a 40 pip stop and 80 pip target give risk:reward of 1:2. But if 1 lot is closed at +40 pips then the second must now go all the way to 120 to retain R:R of 1:2.

So the answers are not all the same for everyone. In my opinion the most important thing is to decide what works for you, set your personal trading plan and stick to it so that your results are meaningful.

I hope that makes sense, I've had a beer an it's late!
  • #10,964
  • Apr 20, 2009 6:17pm Apr 20, 2009 6:17pm
Took this trade today short at 2391 after a big run up into a nice price level. On a daily chart this is also a retest of a broken trend line. I don't know why USD/CAD is going down, but the tech's rule.
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  • #10,965
  • Apr 20, 2009 7:52pm Apr 20, 2009 7:52pm
Morning,

looks like Euro did'nt hold out. I was tempted to give it a bit more room but rules are rules. Geppy is at a tough junction right now lots of confluence going on here
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  • #10,966
  • Apr 20, 2009 9:36pm Apr 20, 2009 9:36pm
BRV,

I like your simple method of trading. Simple yet powerful! But I do think I need some help from the thread. I still seem to have a hard time identifying good S+R levels. Maybe I'm just blind .

Here's my EUR chart:

http://i267.photobucket.com/albums/i...j7-20daily.gif

EUR seems to be at the 1.2899-1.2903 level that I marked up. I don't know if that is a level or not since no one else has mentioned it. Or did I mark it up because PA stopped there? Chicken or the eggs?

But I picked this as a level also because of the 2/25 peak (1.2899). Well, PA seems to agree right now but I'd like to know if did this right anyway?

Any thoughts, anyone?
  • #10,967
  • Apr 20, 2009 9:46pm Apr 20, 2009 9:46pm
BRV,

Love that you post on Twitter!

Here's a great tool for everyone who wants to follow you and get up-to-the-minute updates as post them...

http://www.twhirl.com

It's like an IM for Twitter. The minute BRV posts his Tweet....you'll get an alert.

I would love to be able to follow any of you other experts who posts what they see on Twitter as well.

TIA!
  • #10,968
  • Apr 20, 2009 9:49pm Apr 20, 2009 9:49pm
Quoting Pip2It
BRV,

Love that you post on Twitter!

Here's a great tool for everyone who wants to follow you and get up-to-the-minute updates as post them...

http://www.twhirl.com

It's like an IM for Twitter. The minute BRV posts his Tweet....you'll get an alert.

I would love to be able to follow any of you other experts who posts what they see on Twitter as well.

TIA!
Thanks pip2it! I think its actually http://www.twhirl.org/ just googled it never heard of it but thank you! I'll give it a go.
  • #10,969
  • Apr 20, 2009 9:52pm Apr 20, 2009 9:52pm
Quoting Pip2It
BRV,

I like your simple method of trading. Simple yet powerful! But I do think I need some help from the thread. I still seem to have a hard time identifying good S+R levels. Maybe I'm just blind .

Here's my EUR chart:

http://i267.photobucket.com/albums/i...j7-20daily.gif

[font=&quot][color=#444444]EUR seems to be at the 1.2899-1.2903 level that I marked up. I don't know if that is a level or not since no one else has mentioned it. Or did I mark it up because PA stopped...
It is an area yeah - I actually had that marked up earlier. The nexy one down I have on EUR is 1.2823 area, or thereabouts. If you run a line across a chart you'll see that it has some pretty good historical significance.

I just try to find the bigger ones, actually, and avoid as much noise as possible. Too much and I'm blind as a bat...
  • #10,970
  • Apr 20, 2009 9:55pm Apr 20, 2009 9:55pm
EurUsd i find more difficult as it seems there can be quite a few s/r lines. I just look for the ones that stick out like sore thumb right away at extreme ends and middle.
  • #10,971
  • Apr 20, 2009 9:56pm Apr 20, 2009 9:56pm
This area on Euro has been a choppy mess. Even if I find levels I treat them as scalps only. I don't expect much bounce
  • #10,972
  • Apr 20, 2009 10:21pm Apr 20, 2009 10:21pm
BRV,

Sorry. It is twhirl.org. It's great also in that I think you can post your tweets straight from the app just like you would like on any chat app.

I installed it last night after I found out you were on Twitter. And it works great. Got your tweet on that GBP trade cancellation right away. Wish you had canceled that EUR one as well!

But I had that EUR trade marker up and on the board couple of days ago anyway.

I'm already in @ 1.2903 on the current retrace and as was mentioned, lots of overhead resistance! Looks to me (according to my S+R's) the next stop would be around 1.2993. 80+ pips wold be OK with me.
  • #10,973
  • Apr 20, 2009 10:29pm Apr 20, 2009 10:29pm
1.2975 area could be a little resistance too
  • #10,974
  • Apr 20, 2009 11:56pm Apr 20, 2009 11:56pm
Quoting Pip2It
BRV,

Sorry. It is twhirl.org. It's great also in that I think you can post your tweets straight from the app just like you would like on any chat app.

I installed it last night after I found out you were on Twitter. And it works great. Got your tweet on that GBP trade cancellation right away. Wish you had canceled that EUR one as well!

But I had that EUR trade marker up and on the board couple of days ago anyway.

I'm already in @ 1.2903 on the current retrace and as was mentioned, lots of overhead resistance! Looks to me (according to...
Ha - good to hear - yeah EUR under obvious pressure today - one of the trades that get stuck in the back alley. Oh well. If I could provide more in terms of active trade management I would, but I think I would go cuckoo. Was in profit for a little while before doing a trend continuation move off of 1.3017, or thereabouts. With info posted all over here that trade alone could have paid out very well if taken. I'll try to post more of these going forward. I put them up so far in advance sometimes market conditions dictate otherwise by the time they get hit. Anyways, thanks!
  • #10,975
  • Apr 21, 2009 1:50am Apr 21, 2009 1:50am
Quoting Siam
I was tempted to give it a bit more room but rules are rules.
I think some people forget the importance of this so I thought I would quote it for posterity.
  • #10,976
  • Apr 21, 2009 3:51am Apr 21, 2009 3:51am
short aud/usd from 0.7040 - 0.7055 area

SR
.50 fib
daily pivot
psycho level
  • #10,977
  • Apr 21, 2009 4:13am Apr 21, 2009 4:13am
Quoting dreamtrader
short aud/usd from 0.7040 - 0.7055 area

SR
.50 fib
daily pivot
psycho level
Good zone.

I make it a 38 Fib of yesterdays sell off in 1hr TF.
  • #10,978
  • Apr 21, 2009 4:26am Apr 21, 2009 4:26am
Quoting RedCabbage
Good zone.

I make it a 38 Fib of yesterdays sell off in 1hr TF.
Thanks for your comment, RC. The 0.50 fib I have is drawn from range 0.6767 to 0.7324.
I am already in, now I shall practice managing the trade. Saw a news spike due to ZEW I guess, didn't know EUR news also affect AUD, probably it introduced USD weakness. I had a line on on E/U too (1.2991), but didn't dare to short it due to the news, it looks like a good trade currently.
  • #10,979
  • Apr 21, 2009 4:52am Apr 21, 2009 4:52am
Quoting dreamtrader
Thanks for your comment, RC. The 0.50 fib I have is drawn from range 0.6767 to 0.7324.
I am already in, now I shall practice managing the trade. Saw a news spike due to ZEW I guess, didn't know EUR news also affect AUD, probably it introduced USD weakness. I had a line on on E/U too (1.2991), but didn't dare to short it due to the news, it looks like a good trade currently.
Nice one! Fibonacci retracements can be drawn in so many different ways and in several timeframes. The convergence of the 50 and 38 from different waves is very strong confirmation.

The biggest moves are a result of market concensus and this is a good example in Fib terms.
  • #10,980
  • Apr 21, 2009 5:05am Apr 21, 2009 5:05am
Just posting up my eurusd chart. I would not jump too quick as 13051 looks first exit for me, and if it goes through 13111 which I have my eye on more. When it gets closer to the mentioned points of resistance you guys have mentioned, I would see what other charts are doing before jumping out. It could be time for a little spurt up in eurjpy, gbpusd and a couple of others and it might help elevate this.
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