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  • #2,141
  • Apr 20, 2009 5:24pm Apr 20, 2009 5:24pm
Quoting Grimweasel
Hey Nic - nice analysis.
I'm with you on the yen pairs - the indices will show the way too.

Good thing for me is that I've not traded for 3 days now - a record for me. I feel so much better about trading (or not trading) now I'm sticking to my single set-up.

I really liked Strat's analysis of the hanging man candle. It gives the trader early warning that a change of trend may be in the offing - but when you look at historical charts they don't often signal that reversal themselves - we have to wait for more reliable PA to get us into the trade....
And your account is so much better, too! "Zero alpha" - so what's your handle - "Beta One"?

Less IS more, Danny Boy!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #2,142
  • Apr 20, 2009 5:26pm Apr 20, 2009 5:26pm
[quote=elitejets;2682125]Tonight I'm watching the yen pairs for price action because after big moves today a few are at key levels where price has reversed before, especially EURJPY, GBPJPY AND USDJPY.

Here is GBPJPY, which is fast approaching 1.4150 and an ascending support line that has produced some great moves before. Im watching for price action to see if the line holds.

The same with USDJPY, the level is Strats favourite 97.52 level and it also intersects with an ascending support line on the daily.

The level Im watching on EURJPY for the same reason. Also GBPCHF to see if the ascending trendline holds.
USDCAD is also an interesting key level, 50% fib from previous highs and lows and if it turns here it stays in the downtrending channel. I would not trade USDCAD however because of Bank of Canada interest rate decision tomorrow.[/QUOTE

A few questions that may enlighten me and others on the path.
1. Isn't that a shooting star on the USD/JPY (on your data) with a BEOB a couple of bars later?
2. How do we know that the uptrend is over or continuing? Looks like we have turned bearish and are breaking the MAs.
3. We need PA to enter long again, right? Not just support?

Thanks.
  • #2,143
  • Apr 20, 2009 5:26pm Apr 20, 2009 5:26pm
Quoting AstonDan
Well on my data feed...

Attachment

Ah, yes, there he is, good old Hank Marvin - lives in Perth, Oz, now.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #2,144
  • Apr 20, 2009 5:34pm Apr 20, 2009 5:34pm
[quote=One14;2682252]
Quoting elitejets
Tonight I'm watching the yen pairs for price action because after big moves today a few are at key levels where price has reversed before, especially EURJPY, GBPJPY AND USDJPY.

Here is GBPJPY, which is fast approaching 1.4150 and an ascending support line that has produced some great moves before....
That's the way, 114 - don't believe or trust anyone on here - especially those who have wandered over to the "Darkside".

Never mind others on the path - it would also enlighten me too!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #2,145
  • Apr 20, 2009 6:00pm Apr 20, 2009 6:00pm
[quote=strat;2682273]
Quoting One14
That's the way, 114 - don't believe or trust anyone on here - especially those who have wandered over to the "Darkside".
Never mind others on the path - it would also enlighten me too!
Ahem .. Please ... I said I was watching for price action!

Why is it interesting? Here is a chart of GBPJPY (cleaned up so you can see what I am talking about). Take a look at last August when the liquidity crisis took hold and what happened to the price of GBPJPY when the trendline broke ...
Im not suggesting trading anything tonight. The UK budget is on Wednesday and the indices look to have broken weeks of up trend and when the markets fall and fear returns the US dollar, yen and gold go up.
Trader_Dante (a professional prop trader) has a theory about levels and SR and he says if the price grinds slowly into them the levels are more likely to give way whereas if the price races to get to them and exhausts then they hold.
I'm just watching ....

Nicola

PS Yes USDCAD very tempting but CAD interest rate decision tomorrow ...
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  • #2,146
  • Apr 20, 2009 6:05pm Apr 20, 2009 6:05pm
But hows about the old..."wait for a bit of price action".....thing......

Is this the new reality after the new reality ended up not being a new reality at all?
or is it a return to a fib of importance on a higher time frame price bar?or a break of
the afore mentioned price bar....and a new reality..............all i know and this is now the million dollar question that price action is king............

Reality is the only God there is..........ever tried to catch a falling knife without price action gloves.....no?......ok go on then......youll only do it once if your clever or poor

if your stupid and rich.........ouch............

REMEMBER just give me your money NOT the bloody bucket shops........g
  • #2,147
  • Apr 20, 2009 6:26pm Apr 20, 2009 6:26pm
Quoting elitejets
Tonight I'm watching the yen pairs for price action because after big moves today a few are at key levels where price has reversed before, especially EURJPY, GBPJPY AND USDJPY.
I think that is what I said ...

XXX - Love Ya, BabaG, tell it like it is ...
  • #2,148
  • Apr 20, 2009 6:38pm Apr 20, 2009 6:38pm
Hi,

Does anybody trade 4H here? I see a PB on EUR'/JPY and it seems to be in a good spot. What do you guys think?

I have a sell on USD/CHF too, I entered before everybody started to say that it was not a good one, even tough we had PB on 4H and Daily chart, and to finish I have a PB on NZD/USD on 4h that I'm on and would appreciate any comment as well..

thanks!
  • #2,149
  • Apr 20, 2009 6:58pm Apr 20, 2009 6:58pm
Quoting strat

USDCAD - this is SO tempting to sell BUT discipline and common sense prevails - wait for PASR!
Strat, what is so tempting about it as far as your trading style goes? Or does it not fall under your trading style? It is tempting to me too, but that's for another trading method in my short term account
  • #2,150
  • Apr 20, 2009 7:03pm Apr 20, 2009 7:03pm
Quoting strat
BOSS now has confirmed swing high on 4/10. Should see us through to first or second week in May if cycles are anything to go by.

Same for NZDJPY
Can you please expand on cycles a little bit?

What do you mean when you say it has confirmed a swing high? Does this mean that it bottomed out and is turning back around?
  • #2,151
  • Apr 20, 2009 7:15pm Apr 20, 2009 7:15pm
Quoting psneto
Hi,

Does anybody trade 4H here? I see a PB on EUR'/JPY and it seems to be in a good spot. What do you guys think?

I have a sell on USD/CHF too, I entered before everybody started to say that it was not a good one, even tough we had PB on 4H and Daily chart, and to finish I have a PB on NZD/USD on 4h that I'm on and would appreciate any comment as well..

thanks!
NOTHING LESS THAN DAILY TIME FRAME HERE
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #2,152
  • Apr 20, 2009 7:21pm Apr 20, 2009 7:21pm
[quote=elitejets;2682306]
Quoting strat

Ahem .. Please ... I said I was watching for price action!

Why is it interesting? Here is a chart of GBPJPY (cleaned up so you can see what I am talking about)....
Thanks, Nicola, very interesting.

""if the price grinds slowly into them the levels are more likely to give way whereas if the price races to get to them and exhausts then they hold.""

Oh, I do love a slow grind!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #2,153
  • Apr 20, 2009 7:23pm Apr 20, 2009 7:23pm
Quoting Life of Pi_p
Strat, what is so tempting about it as far as your trading style goes? Or does it not fall under your trading style? It is tempting to me too, but that's for another trading method in my short term account
Anything that is in a downtrend, I want to sell the pants off each rally!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #2,154
  • Apr 20, 2009 7:27pm Apr 20, 2009 7:27pm
Quoting Naws
Can you please expand on cycles a little bit?

What do you mean when you say it has confirmed a swing high? Does this mean that it bottomed out and is turning back around?
There are two types of cycles - price and time. Within each cycle there are shorter and longer cycles. At the end of this sentence is a guy driven crazy by cycles!!!!!

Does a swing HIGH top out or bottom out? Do you know what swings are (other than the things kids play on in the park)?
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #2,155
  • Apr 20, 2009 7:29pm Apr 20, 2009 7:29pm
Quoting Baba G
But hows about the old..."wait for a bit of price action".....thing......


REMEMBER just give me your money NOT the bloody bucket shops........g

Until we are finished with the buckets they need the cash....not long now though.

Hows this for pa man? yes that is a FTB , oh and a bullish outside bar.
You know me, will be looking for the cheap entry. Big stop for the daily chop and some problems higher up but... Fits with new sentiment to my mind.
What was all that about reality.....bliss is not an experience it is a state.
OSGN
p.s. what do you think girlfriend?
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GOD IS NOT SHORT OF CASH
  • #2,156
  • Apr 20, 2009 7:32pm Apr 20, 2009 7:32pm
Strat

would you sell UC if it goes below the TL?
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  • #2,157
  • Apr 20, 2009 7:42pm Apr 20, 2009 7:42pm
Quoting Swami S
Hows this for pa man? yes that is a FTB , oh and a bullish outside bar.
You know me, will be looking for the cheap entry. Big stop for the daily chop and some problems higher up but... Fits with new sentiment to my mind.
What was all that about reality.....bliss is not an experience it is a state.
OSGN
p.s. what do you think girlfriend?
Obvious downtrend, and a bounce off the daily 20ema
I like your style ...
  • #2,158
  • Apr 20, 2009 7:54pm Apr 20, 2009 7:54pm
Hi Strat,

EURGBP daily candle today closed above 3 days closed ago, 150ema, and 78.6% from the last swing. Will see EURGBP repeat the pattern of last swing.

I bet you see it differently.
Thanks.
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  • #2,159
  • Apr 20, 2009 7:58pm Apr 20, 2009 7:58pm
Quoting patrick25
Hi Strat,

EURGBP daily candle today closed above 3 days closed ago, 150ema, and 78.6% from the last swing. Will see EURGBP repeat the pattern of last swing.

I bet you see it differently.
Thanks.
I would not speculate above .9000 atm. On the fence here although did advise a friend to hold his euros for a day or so.
GOD IS NOT SHORT OF CASH
  • #2,160
  • Apr 20, 2009 8:00pm Apr 20, 2009 8:00pm
Quoting elitejets
Obvious downtrend, and a bounce off the daily 20ema
I like your style ...

No offense but I meant my girlfriend, unless that was a pass The bounce that concerns me is the 365.
Respecting what Strat said to the newer folks to stick to pins (hammers and shooting stars), the outside bar can also be a powerful reversal bar for those that are utterly sure what they want from a pin already.
GOD IS NOT SHORT OF CASH
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