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Attachments: Great GBP/USD Strategy for Swing Trades
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Great GBP/USD Strategy for Swing Trades

Hey Vynner

What is your experience going short with this method versus going long? I ask this because GBP has been trending upward for a longtime, I would imagine shorting is more risky and less profitable overall?
i am not vynner and cant answer for him, but i wld guess you shd follow the system.. you start bucking the system, it aint a system any longer..

Quoting zamakhtar
Hey Vynner

What is your experience going short with this method versus going long? I ask this because GBP has been trending upward for a longtime, I would imagine shorting is more risky and less profitable overall?
shd be long on next candle shdnt it? 13 ma has jus crossed 50
But the daily stoch still shows down
Going short is no more or less risky. As long as you are using the filter, that being the daily stochastic indicator and are placing a trade that is confirmed by that trend. The cable does have the 4 and 13 crossing in a long direction, yes, but the daily is showing a downtrend so a trade here would be against the longer term trend...always risky. As far as shoring in general you are essentially always shorting one of the currencies no matter what you position. Buy the GBP and you are selling the dollar.
Illegitimi Non Carborundum
Is it going to be SHORT ?

Just happened to come across this threat.

This is my 2cents.
1ST, set MACD 8,17,9. This is more sensitive than the standard setting.
On 4H chart, price rejection at 61.8 fibo.
MACD divergence on 15min chart.
Stoch 13,5,5 4H hs arrived at overbought and beginning to turn down.
At this point, MACD 5M, 15M, 30M, 1H are all crossed down. When 4H also cross down, all system go SHORT. 1D is down.
13/50 crossed at this pointbut, 50 is flat and 1.5H to close of bar - will see where the close is when complete.
Mean time, be patient.

Good luck. Many pips to all.
This is not a threat, just a stern warning...sorry, couldn't resist.

No offense, but this thread is dedicated to a specific system, the set up and results thereof. I appreciate your 2 cents and will look at that set up becuase I am always curious, but for the sake of this thread we try to stick with a discipline that is outlined here and getting distracted by alternate theories can be confusing. Again, I am not doscounting your system, just wishing you would confine your comments to the system dictated by the thread.
Illegitimi Non Carborundum
Has anyone here tried this system on other pairs? It looks like a trigger is setting up on the USDCHF if anyone was interested. I may take a demo trade to test if the signal keeps developing.
Illegitimi Non Carborundum
Quoting Choopyaz
Has anyone here tried this system on other pairs? It looks like a trigger is setting up on the USDCHF if anyone was interested. I may take a demo trade to test if the signal keeps developing.
just check out usd/chf ..looks like a formation there...maybe you should back tested it and see if its a good idea...anyway..keep us update with that pair!
Hi VyNNer

Enclosed please see attached chart on GBPUSD.
The EMA 3 and EMA14 crossed EMA 50 and on the daily chart %D is above
%K => it is signal for short based on the swing trade strategy rules.

If we enter on the very candle (1.9714) when the EMA 13 crossed EMA 50, we will be stop out in the next 2 candles (SL is 1.9764)...

May you kindly share with your experience how to overcome this...I do notice the %K and %D angle is still widen open and it indicates bullish...

Thanks..


Quoting VyNNeR
Dear hoss,

I appreciate the way you remind all fellow traders to stick to the rules.
No doubt without the filter, we might get some interesting trades and pips but with my experience, i would rather trade less and trade quality signals.
In this senario i would hope that cable would give us another short signal soon. Hopefully a sharper angle this time.

VyNNeR
Quoting prosper888
Is it going to be SHORT ?

Just happened to come across this threat.

This is my 2cents.
1ST, set MACD 8,17,9. This is more sensitive than the standard setting.
On 4H chart, price rejection at 61.8 fibo.
MACD divergence on 15min chart.
Stoch 13,5,5 4H hs arrived at overbought and beginning to turn down.
At this point, MACD 5M, 15M, 30M, 1H are all crossed down. When 4H also cross down, all system go SHORT. 1D is down.
13/50 crossed at this pointbut, 50 is flat and 1.5H to close of bar - will see where the close is when complete.
Mean time, be patient.

Good luck. Many pips to all.
Would you attach its *.mq4 include its chart,
Because i'm newbie here.

Thanx.
Quoting TSK
Hi VyNNer

Enclosed please see attached chart on GBPUSD.
The EMA 3 and EMA14 crossed EMA 50 and on the daily chart %D is above
%K => it is signal for short based on the swing trade strategy rules.

If we enter on the very candle (1.9714) when the EMA 13 crossed EMA 50, we will be stop out in the next 2 candles (SL is 1.9764)...

May you kindly share with your experience how to overcome this...I do notice the %K and %D angle is still widen open and it indicates bullish...

Thanks..

why u enter on 1.9714 for short ??
Hi all I have read this forum and like this method so started to trade it.

A question as I'm having a blank moment.

If you get a long trigger on the 4hr chart like we have now it is a no entry because the daily stoch are set for a short trigger, however they are now starting to look like they may possibly cross over for the bulls soon.
If this happens will that be a trigger to enter as the 4hr is already set or do we need to wait for the daily first then the 4hr trigger.
I thought I just follow the rules of the strategy..
In the 4hrs chart EMA 13 and 4 cross over EMA 50 and %D is above %K in the daily chart ...so I go for short at 1.914...

Did I understand correctly(or I am wrong)...anyway, it is sad to sit down and do nothing to see the price movement when up by 100pips...


Quoting happyliving
why u enter on 1.9714 for short ??
Hi VyNNer

Must we wait for both slow stoichastic in the 4hrs and daily chart to be in sync before pull our trigger ??That is if %D is above %K in 4hrs chart, in order for us to pull the trigger, the %D must be also above %K in daily chart....it seems to me the above mentioned setup is required when I papertraded this strategy...
Quoting zamakhtar
Hey Vynner

What is your experience going short with this method versus going long? I ask this because GBP has been trending upward for a longtime, I would imagine shorting is more risky and less profitable overall?
You probably have a good point there.

In general, when trading against the long term trend, it is best to take smaller profits and get out when signs are pointing against you.

A system, traded against the trend, will have different characteristics.

In my experience, most good traders do not follow their system to the letter. Their experience and knowledge guide them, and everyone's experience is different. Trading is definitely an art.

Recurring advice from the old timers hammers the points:

1. Trade with the trend.
2. Watch what is happening in real time.

20/20 hindsight for me, but simple stuff for the astute and nimble trader. They would have been wary of this week's trade, going against the trend. In fact, I think I mentinoed that, but then stuck with the system rules, and lost.

Had I been properly respectful of the trend, i.e. looking to get out with 1/3 to 1/2 of the normal expected profits, I might have heeded the hammer and doji on the 4 hour, or the reverse head and shoulders breakout on the 1 hour - both strong signs that it was time to take profit in a counter-trend trade.

"Contentment may be wealth, but it doesn't pay the bills" -- anonymous
Against the trend
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: vynner 4 08 07.jpg Size: 83 KB
With the trend. Works a lot better
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: vynner 3 02 07.jpg Size: 87 KB
I thought about getting out on that 4 hr hammer, too, and reminded myself that this was not a candlestick reading system. Next thing you know, I would be looking at fibs, rsi, pivot points, etc. So, I left it alone. In this case we would have been smart to get out. Maybe not next time. If our money mgt is sound we can deal with these inherent losses.

Quoting blueruby
You probably have a good point there.

In general, when trading against the long term trend, it is best to take smaller profits and get out when signs are pointing against you.

A system, traded against the trend, will have different characteristics.

In my experience, most good traders do not follow their system to the letter. Their experience and knowledge guide them, and everyone's experience is different. Trading is definitely an art.

Recurring advice from the old timers hammers the points:

1. Trade with the trend.
2. Watch what is happening in real time.

20/20 hindsight for me, but simple stuff for the astute and nimble trader. They would have been wary of this week's trade, going against the trend. In fact, I think I mentinoed that, but then stuck with the system rules, and lost.

Had I been properly respectful of the trend, i.e. looking to get out with 1/3 to 1/2 of the normal expected profits, I might have heeded the hammer and doji on the 4 hour, or the reverse head and shoulders breakout on the 1 hour - both strong signs that it was time to take profit in a counter-trend trade.

"Contentment may be wealth, but it doesn't pay the bills" -- anonymous
Quoting hoss
Maybe not next time. If our money mgt is sound we can deal with these inherent losses.
Have you backtested the system with trend in mind?

Here's the Feb 02 trade. I'm reading around 100 pips. With the trend.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: vynner 2 08 07.jpg Size: 84 KB
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