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Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading

  • #2,121
  • Apr 20, 2009 4:09am Apr 20, 2009 4:09am
"Are you going to be sane after working with us NOOBS for 2-3 years?"


Strat is already insane....what do you mean?
  • #2,122
  • Apr 20, 2009 5:43am Apr 20, 2009 5:43am
Quoting rgrace
Ahh, the light has gotten brighter....

Rgrace,

You raised the "exit" question earlier and Strat explained he takes a half and half approach. What works is, as he said, in part a personal thing but it is also a developmental issue.

Most who come from a system and backtesting background hate it. They've tested their systems and the optimal result (for the tests) is to run to XXX, trail the stop or whatever.

But the 1, 2, 3 approach comes from a different heritage. Its about discretionary trading and especially the learning phase. To learn one needs to experience success and be rewarded for doing the right thing. So taking your trades in 1/3rd, 1 quick, 1 at first resistance, and 1 runner gives some benefits:
- it is less stressful to win 60-70% of the time than the 35-45% a hang in to the end system trader will normally achieve
- you are rewarded repeatedly for following your rules so you build good habits
- this type of approach (3 or 2 stage) makes it much easier to actually get your resistance and get your trailing stop so ill discipline is less of a problem.

Once you really rock then you might just choose to do one of the 3 things - thats another benefit, you'll know what feels right in actual trading.
  • #2,123
  • Apr 20, 2009 9:26am Apr 20, 2009 9:26am
Quoting elitejets
I would not sell into the BOSS 20ema but this does look like it has been very squeezed and price action is suggesting a drop. Another one to watch for a break.
Spiky but profitable Strat
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  • #2,124
  • Apr 20, 2009 10:50am Apr 20, 2009 10:50am
Hi Team,

Can one of you explain about Boss, Big Boss.

I guess Boss is the Weekly and Big Boss the Monthly timeframe?

If I see a short trade on the daily
and the weekly (Boss) is going UP in strong bullish trend
and Big Boss is going up in Strong Bullish trend

Do I not take the daily trade ...even though it could be a 2-3 day short move?

Want to understand how to use the BOSS and Big Boss in my analysis of Daily charts.

Ta
  • #2,125
  • Apr 20, 2009 10:55am Apr 20, 2009 10:55am
Quoting paddyham
Hi Team,

Can one of you explain about Boss, Big Boss.

I guess Boss is the Weekly and Big Boss the Monthly timeframe?

If I see a short trade on the daily
and the weekly (Boss) is going UP in strong bullish trend
and Big Boss is going up in Strong Bullish trend

Do I not take the daily trade ...even though it could be a 2-3 day short move?

Want to understand how to use the BOSS and Big Boss in my analysis of Daily charts.

Ta
You are correct about the BOSS and BIG BOSS. You really need to read this whole thread as well as Lance's Index. It will be worth your while and most of the basic questions should be answered
  • #2,126
  • Apr 20, 2009 11:10am Apr 20, 2009 11:10am
Quoting rgrace
Ahh, the light has gotten brighter....
Nail on the head, young Mr Grace!

The best advice I can give anyone starting out on The Path of Learning is, after learning the basics and PASR, is to take the two MAIN reversal bars, the Shooting Star and the Hammer, and only trade those signals until you know them inside out and the tricks they play. Forget about any others - they are a distraction - focus, focus and focus. Look on Daily, Weekly and Monthly charts - these are where you find the strongest and most reliable signals.

I also recommend you start and keep a journal on each Shooting Star and Hammer trade focusing on those candles - where were they? how long was the nose, body, where did they close? what was the sequence of bars prior to the candle? what was the size of the candle relative to the prior bars? etc. Observe where the next bar is after the candle, where did it open? where did it go? what did it do? Observe the swing after the candle, how long did it last? how many bars? Of course, all this should be done within the context of trends. Within your journal, you should take a snapshot of the candle, the bar(s) after it and the swing after it.

I see too many new and wannabe traders taking a trade and not really knowing why they took the trade and worst of all, not analysing their trades.

The analysis of your trades reveal EVERYTHING about YOU and where YOU are in YOUR trading. Those that don't analyse their trades have NO CLUE where they are in their trading development. Even worse, are those that do not analyse their WINNING trades. The analysis of a winning trade is EQUALLY as important as the analysis of a losing trade. We need to know what we did right and why we did it.

Me thinks you haven't read all my posts if you think I'm sane - why would I start this thread if I was sane?
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #2,127
  • Apr 20, 2009 11:14am Apr 20, 2009 11:14am
Quoting kiwi_trader
Rgrace,

You raised the "exit" question earlier and Strat explained he takes a half and half approach....
Thank you for your input, kiwi trader
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #2,128
  • Apr 20, 2009 11:19am Apr 20, 2009 11:19am
Quoting elitejets
Spiky but profitable Strat
You never cease to amaze me, Nicola!

It seems very risky to me. I remember times trying that and I would get my short filled on one of those long tails and price would reverse and take me long with a subsequent loss in my account!

Where was the PASR to enter or was it your fundamental intuition?
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #2,129
  • Apr 20, 2009 11:59am Apr 20, 2009 11:59am
Quoting paddyham
Hi Team,

Can one of you explain about Boss, Big Boss.

I guess Boss is the Weekly and Big Boss the Monthly timeframe?

If I see a short trade on the daily
and the weekly (Boss) is going UP in strong bullish trend
and Big Boss is going up in Strong Bullish trend

Do I not take the daily trade ...even though it could be a 2-3 day short move?

Want to understand how to use the BOSS and Big Boss in my analysis of Daily charts.

Ta
Paddyham, the Pi man gave it to you straight - if you are asking these questions, then you have either:

1) Not read the whole thread
2) Flash read the thread
3) Read but NOT understood

If 1) - you are either a "lurker" looking for a free lunch or you are not prepared to put in the work, time and effort that is required if you want to become successful and profitable and are just looking for short- cuts. The only short cut to trading is going broke and that is a very fast short - cut.

If 2) - you are wasting your time and are in a "dream" world

If 3) - you are "cheating" and "lying" to yourself - traits which will doom anyone in any life to failure but more especially traders. At the first point that you don't understand something - STOP - re-read it until you do understand it - if you still do not understand - ASK QUESTIONS and do not go further until you understand.

I am very tempted to tell you to go back to the beginning of The Path of Learning but since I had a good week-end in Dana Point with our Ryan at the Ocean, I will go over it again.

""If I see a short trade on the daily
and the weekly (Boss) is going UP in strong bullish trend
and Big Boss is going up in Strong Bullish trend""

You have got your analysis UPSIDE DOWN!

You must always start with the BIG BOSS and understand where it is trend-wise and momentum-wise. Then do the same with the BOSS. At this point you are ARMED and DANGEROUS - you are already AHEAD of 90% of the traders out there. Knowing the intent of the BIG BOSS and the BOSS, we look to the Daily for our entry.

So, in your scenario, you have recognised the BIG BOSS is in a strong bullish trend, and the BOSS is also in a strong bullish trend. You now look to the Daily for a SAFE, LOW RISK entry, which in this case, would be buying dips (retraces, profit taking).

OR,

you could do as you imply, and

Take a VERY UNSAFE AND VERY RISKY short trade AGAINST a VERY POWERFUL and CONFIRMED UPTREND!

If you were serious in your question then you need to ask yourself:

ARE YOU WANTING TO "TRADE" OR MAKE MONEY?

What would I do? I have NO INTEREST in trading - I just want to MAKE MONEY from the markets

Right - I have gone out of my way to help you. Now YOU must help yourself and GO BACK to the beginning of The Path of Learning and READ it and UNDERSTAND it and don't come back on here until you have. Agreed?
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #2,130
  • Edited 1:24pm Apr 20, 2009 12:55pm | Edited 1:24pm
Quoting strat
You never cease to amaze me, Nicola!

It seems very risky to me. I remember times trying that and I would get my short filled on one of those long tails and price would reverse and take me long with a subsequent loss in my account!

Where was the PASR to enter or was it your fundamental intuition?
It was the break of the shooting star of two days ago and the 52.50 SR level and the break of the weekly 20ema. I only did it because the indices were falling and the dollar was rallying, they are all related.
To be honest I get my setups from the daily but you have to set targets or like BabaG keep an eye on them because they can reverse

Nicola
  • #2,131
  • Apr 20, 2009 1:14pm Apr 20, 2009 1:14pm
Quoting strat
Right - I have gone out of my way to help you. Now YOU must help yourself and GO BACK to the beginning of The Path of Learning and READ it and UNDERSTAND it and don't come back on here until you have. Agreed?

Thanks Strat / Pi for your comments.

Although I have read the post from the beginning I didn't really understand how to utilise the Boss, Big Boss in my analysis - e.g what should I do in a weekly and monthly analysis.

I have be doing a weekly analysis on trades and putting them into 3 "buckets" Up, Down, Sideways.

My understanding of this is still pretty poor hence the question - Going to start (not passing go).

Shutting up now
  • #2,132
  • Apr 20, 2009 1:37pm Apr 20, 2009 1:37pm
Quoting AminAS
Saturday night was senior prom, and I got to go as a junior! How many guys on the thread can say that?
now i may be classed as senior, but i went out saturday nite, and still managed to get in a junior! http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon10.gifhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon10.gif
  • #2,133
  • Apr 20, 2009 3:27pm Apr 20, 2009 3:27pm
Not ideal as its against the trend but it seems to suggest a pullback.


Oh, I like the colours, by the way.
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  • #2,134
  • Edited 3:42pm Apr 20, 2009 3:38pm | Edited 3:42pm
Quoting Bloom
Not ideal as its against the trend but it seems to suggest a pullback.
Might be good down to the 61 Fib or even the TL. I won't take it though, looks a little 'neutral' to me and i would have liked to have seen the shadow touch the upper TL.

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Though i notice the shadow did touch your upper TL Bloom
  • #2,135
  • Apr 20, 2009 3:51pm Apr 20, 2009 3:51pm
Tonight I'm watching the yen pairs for price action because after big moves today a few are at key levels where price has reversed before, especially EURJPY, GBPJPY AND USDJPY.

Here is GBPJPY, which is fast approaching 1.4150 and an ascending support line that has produced some great moves before. Im watching for price action to see if the line holds.

The same with USDJPY, the level is Strats favourite 97.52 level and it also intersects with an ascending support line on the daily.

The level Im watching on EURJPY for the same reason. Also GBPCHF to see if the ascending trendline holds.
USDCAD is also an interesting key level, 50% fib from previous highs and lows and if it turns here it stays in the downtrending channel. I would not trade USDCAD however because of Bank of Canada interest rate decision tomorrow.
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  • #2,136
  • Apr 20, 2009 4:23pm Apr 20, 2009 4:23pm
Hey Nic - nice analysis.
I'm with you on the yen pairs - the indices will show the way too.

Good thing for me is that I've not traded for 3 days now - a record for me. I feel so much better about trading (or not trading) now I'm sticking to my single set-up.

I really liked Strat's analysis of the hanging man candle. It gives the trader early warning that a change of trend may be in the offing - but when you look at historical charts they don't often signal that reversal themselves - we have to wait for more reliable PA to get us into the trade. I only trade daily hammers and shooting stars on significant SR levels. To me the rest of the market is now just 'noise'. I may take an IB on a real good level but only when the PA suggests a really high probability of a successful outcome.

Only trading daily set-ups means you only have to spend 5mins checking the charts after the NY close. Keeps zero-alpha happy (radio speak for Commanding Officer, ie Wife!!) and lets one get on with other things in life.
It's all about the balance you know!!
Good trading all.
(PS Gold I mentioned did rise a little- but no dly hammer for me so I passed on it; and, I'm happy with that - I have proved a higher level of discipline to myself!)
Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #2,137
  • Apr 20, 2009 4:31pm Apr 20, 2009 4:31pm
Quoting Bloom
Not ideal as its against the trend but it seems to suggest a pullback.


Oh, I like the colours, by the way.
Looks like an "old" template to me, Malcolm!

Well it's closed at major resistance at the peak of it's major and minor cycles if they are anything to go by.

Not worth a short even though the "UP" trend is weak.

This pair is too "sideways" for me
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #2,138
  • Apr 20, 2009 4:33pm Apr 20, 2009 4:33pm
Quoting AstonDan
Might be good down to the 61 Fib or even the TL. I won't take it though, looks a little 'neutral' to me and i would have liked to have seen the shadow touch the upper TL.

Attachment

Though i notice the shadow did touch your upper TL Bloom
What the hell is a "shadow" - I can't even see Cliff Richard on there let alone The Shadows!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #2,139
  • Apr 20, 2009 4:54pm Apr 20, 2009 4:54pm
Quoting strat
What the hell is a "shadow" - I can't even see Cliff Richard on there let alone The Shadows!
Well on my data feed...

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  • #2,140
  • Apr 20, 2009 5:20pm Apr 20, 2009 5:20pm
Quoting elitejets
Tonight I'm watching the yen pairs for price action because after big moves today a few are at key levels where price has reversed before, especially EURJPY, GBPJPY AND USDJPY.

Here is GBPJPY, which is fast approaching 1.4150 and an ascending support line that has produced some great moves before....
Trade with caution, kid.
GBPJPY looks "toppy" to me - lower high and lower low - price trapped in the 20/50 box

USDJPY also looks "toppy" to me - lower high and lower low - price just closed below 50 on my data.

EURJPY - already down - today's close is well below the last swing close

GBPCHF - current uptrend still intact - look to buy dip

USDCAD - this is SO tempting to sell BUT discipline and common sense prevails - wait for PASR!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
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