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  • #10,921
  • Apr 20, 2009 2:15am Apr 20, 2009 2:15am
G/U 1.46 seems promising for a long.

-Strong S/R previously
-50 fib
-Trendline
-.00
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd4.jpg Size: 90 KB
  • #10,922
  • Edited 3:18am Apr 20, 2009 3:07am | Edited 3:18am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Hi all,

The former 50% retracement of 1.5722-1.3501 is 1.4611, and 1.4600 has a good history behind it in general.

Just watch out for spastic sell-offs as cable is, in general, considered 'overbought' at the current range and a couple hundred pips can be a walk in the part for this pair.

1.4580 is the local low so I would be alert for that, as well, in the event of spikes lower.

And if it wants to take it out alltogether, my next area long would be in the 1.4380 area.
FYI just cancelled this via twitter and on the blog due to too much short USD exposure.
  • #10,923
  • Apr 20, 2009 3:36am Apr 20, 2009 3:36am
Quoting libb
This what you seeing?
Yep...got in with a long a few minutes ago...
  • #10,924
  • Apr 20, 2009 3:59am Apr 20, 2009 3:59am
Quoting sam0182
Yep...got in with a long a few minutes ago...
Eh, about to eat this one hard...nasty. Lets see what the hourly close gives us...

Where's the vomit smiley?
  • #10,925
  • Apr 20, 2009 3:59am Apr 20, 2009 3:59am
Did anyone say risk aversion? I think the eur is lagging a bit here. Possibly due to the 1.3000 options experations
  • #10,926
  • Apr 20, 2009 4:00am Apr 20, 2009 4:00am
On any other day I would be looking to short usdcad @1.2230 (resistance + 50% Fib retracement) but based on across the board usd strength I think It might be prudent to sit out this one.
  • #10,927
  • Apr 20, 2009 4:19am Apr 20, 2009 4:19am
Quoting Ferrari
Did anyone say risk aversion? I think the eur is lagging a bit here. Possibly due to the 1.3000 options experations
Is 130 todays expiry price for EURUSD at NY Cut?

I have USDJPY at 101.45 as well.

10am EST.
  • #10,928
  • Apr 20, 2009 4:21am Apr 20, 2009 4:21am
About GU long at 1.4600....this kind of selling pressure/momentum tonight is the type of stuff I was talking about in that last video on EUR. When I say its "parabolic" I'm referring to harsh, unrelenting bias in one direction, basically. In other words, bad time to look for fades. Be short or nothing at all.

On top of the EUR exposure, this was another, main reason I cancelled.
  • #10,929
  • Apr 20, 2009 4:27am Apr 20, 2009 4:27am
Quoting RedCabbage
Is 130 todays expiry price for EURUSD at NY Cut?

I have USDJPY at 101.45 as well.

10am EST.
What would option expiry at price X mean to us SR traders?
  • #10,930
  • Apr 20, 2009 4:30am Apr 20, 2009 4:30am
Quoting dreamtrader
What would option expiry at price X mean to us SR traders?
Meaning that if the strike price where the option lies gets taken out, the holder of the option loses the payout. Oftentimes before major option strike prices, you'll see others protecting the area in order to prevent loss at the expiry time/price. They'll basically try to protect the area so the level doesn't get taken out.

Depending on the option type, it can mean any number of things.

Could be a 1 touch/no touch binary option, or just a plain OTC where price needs to trade above/below it at the time of expiration.
  • #10,931
  • Apr 20, 2009 4:34am Apr 20, 2009 4:34am
Quoting RedCabbage
Is 130 todays expiry price for EURUSD at NY Cut?
Yeh some decent sizes too apparently.
  • #10,932
  • Apr 20, 2009 4:38am Apr 20, 2009 4:38am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
About GU long at 1.4600....this kind of selling pressure/momentum tonight is the type of stuff I was talking about in that last video on EUR. When I say its "parabolic" I'm referring to harsh, unrelenting bias in one direction, basically. In other words, bad time to look for fades. Be short or nothing at all.

On top of the EUR exposure, this was another, main reason I cancelled.
I have a piece of software that shows a currencies relative strengh against all its major trading pairs. The USD was being bought heavily across all its pairs and the GBP was being sold. Not a good time to buy this pair. I have been selling at pull backs since 1.4713. My last one was at 1.4587. Aiming at the moment for 1.4511 area.
Boxing clever since 76.
  • #10,933
  • Apr 20, 2009 4:44am Apr 20, 2009 4:44am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Meaning that if the strike price where the option lies gets taken out, the holder of the option loses the payout. Oftentimes before major option strike prices, you'll see others protecting the area in order to prevent loss at the expiry time/price. They'll basically try to protect the area so the level doesn't get taken out.

Depending on the option type, it can mean any number of things.

Could be a 1 touch/no touch binary option, or just a plain OTC where price needs to trade above/below it at the time of expiration.
Got it, thanks!
  • #10,934
  • Apr 20, 2009 4:46am Apr 20, 2009 4:46am
Quoting copi88
I have a piece of software that shows a currencies relative strengh against all its major trading pairs. The USD was being bought heavily across all its pairs and the GBP was being sold. Not a good time to buy this pair. I have been selling at pull backs since 1.4713. My last one was at 1.4587. Aiming at the moment for 1.4511 area.
I've got 1.4515 as the next support area down. Whats the software? Sounds interesting. If you dont want to post can you PM me pls? Thanks!
  • #10,935
  • Apr 20, 2009 4:59am Apr 20, 2009 4:59am
Tricky day today buut here's the next level I will be watching PA for long countertrend scalp:-

14513-14480

Both S+R
000
61Fib
Space
  • #10,936
  • Apr 20, 2009 5:20am Apr 20, 2009 5:20am
Quoting RedCabbage
Is 130 todays expiry price for EURUSD at NY Cut?

I have USDJPY at 101.45 as well.

10am EST.
Jan 21 was the last big one at USDJPY 90.00 3pmGMT 10am EST.
  • #10,937
  • Apr 20, 2009 5:22am Apr 20, 2009 5:22am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
I've got 1.4515 as the next support area down. Whats the software? Sounds interesting. If you dont want to post can you PM me pls? Thanks!
Unfortunately I cannot post the software on this forum. Hanover recently coded up a very similar indicator for metatrader.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=163158

I haven’t used his indicator and cannot comment on how closely it resembles mine.

As a currency is traded across many pairs by looking at say a GBPUSD chart it only represents the action between that pair but not across the others. By looking at the Relative Strength of a currency, which represents its demand and supply across all its pairs, you can judge the strength of a move and its likely reaction to a point of Support and Resistance. I have found this to be a very useful tool for intraday trading.

However like all indicators it can be misleading.
Boxing clever since 76.
  • #10,938
  • Apr 20, 2009 5:32am Apr 20, 2009 5:32am
OK Steve, what's up? I just got notice that you are following me on twitter!

Are you trying to take the opposite trade to me???

(I would...)
  • #10,939
  • Apr 20, 2009 5:48am Apr 20, 2009 5:48am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
I've got 1.4515 as the next support area down. Whats the software? Sounds interesting. If you dont want to post can you PM me pls? Thanks!
YHM
  • #10,940
  • Apr 20, 2009 5:57am Apr 20, 2009 5:57am
Quoting jokoko
OK Steve, what's up? I just got notice that you are following me on twitter!

Are you trying to take the opposite trade to me???

(I would...)
hahahaha its good p.r. we're all in this together
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