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  • #221
  • Apr 20, 2009 4:19am Apr 20, 2009 4:19am
Good Morning and welcome to a new week. I wish the best pips for everyone.

I received a valid signal entry for AUD/USD. I have entered the trade live at 7094.1 S

I missed a trade this morning about an hour ago at the GBP/JPY(s) I was trying to scalp a few pips from entry point, but it just carried on going down.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd.gif Size: 60 KB
_______________ Say Good-bye to Buy-and-Hold
  • #222
  • Apr 20, 2009 4:24am Apr 20, 2009 4:24am
As per the rules I entered this trade and out for few pips because of the two long preceding candles and worried of retracement.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #223
  • Apr 20, 2009 4:43am Apr 20, 2009 4:43am
Quoting deltaworld
Good Morning and welcome to a new week. I wish the best pips for everyone.

I received a valid signal entry for AUD/USD. I have entered the trade live at 7094.1 S

I missed a trade this morning about an hour ago at the GBP/JPY(s) I was trying to scalp a few pips from entry point, but it just carried on going down.
Hi guys,

Looks like a good trade to get into but be aware of large two candles proceeding with no retracement.

Also there is strong support at 7075 to 7050 - (4h chart) so be careful.
  • #224
  • Apr 20, 2009 4:45am Apr 20, 2009 4:45am
Hi guys,

I am currently in this eur/chf trade.

Target 15147.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur-chf- 1h 20.04.2009.gif Size: 47 KB
  • #225
  • Apr 20, 2009 5:01am Apr 20, 2009 5:01am
Delta,

Looks like you made the right choice on which pair to go with.

Mine is getting there slowly.

If I was you I would be getting to b/e now or closing out 1/2 of your position and bring rest to b/e.

There could be a temp retracement as price has moved a fair way.
  • #226
  • Edited 5:31am Apr 20, 2009 5:14am | Edited 5:31am
Quoting oblo
As per the rules I entered this trade and out for few pips because of the two long preceding candles and worried of retracement.
I've been looking at a way of strategizing a technique for setting the breakeven dependant on the volatility of the pair, as each pair reacts differently.

With the indicator attached, this calculates the ATR (Average Trading Range) and x 3 then it gives you a figure of recommended Stop Loss.

From looking at past trades and with high volitility pairs e.g. eur/jpy and gbp/jpy they may need to have a higher b/e trading range.

=(ATR*3)/Factor gives you the recommended B/E point.
Where Factor is 2.948113208
e.g.

for AUD/USD Indicator shows 75 for ATR*3
75/Factor = 25.5 pip till B/E

A few more examples
EURJPY
125/Factor= 42.4 pip till B/E

NZDUSD
66/Factor= 22.4 pip till B/E

GBP/JPY
171/Factor= 58 pip till B/E

USD/JPY
75/Factor= 25.2 pip till B/E

Now the reasoning behind dividing by this factor is that from looking at previous trades (especially the more volatile ones) setting at 40 pips b/e might occasionally get you stopped out at B/e when the trend continues down again on a minor retracement due to volatility of the pair.

But, if you want to be extra conservative and stick to the original 20-40 b/e pip rule, then a minimum and maximum can be set. e.g. A minimum b/e even pip point will never be less than 20 and maximum b/e pip is 40.

I hope this is helpful.

This would then make the b/e rule easier to program if needed for automation through an EA. This will then be scalable to any timeframe and any currency. This will also scale to the current conditions affected by the average trading range e.g. news/other currency movmenents/stock movements/etc etc.

p.s. I received another valid signal for EUR/JPY which was entered at 12770 for a target of 12700

AUD/USD was closed for a +30pip
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 THV3 ATR Pips.ex4   3 KB | 286 downloads
_______________ Say Good-bye to Buy-and-Hold
  • #227
  • Apr 20, 2009 5:31am Apr 20, 2009 5:31am
Hi Delta,
I am in the ej trade too now. Not doing very well...

So, how much have set your sl for this trade according to that indicator? It shows 131 pips to me. Is it right?

Thanks,

Ramon
  • #228
  • Apr 20, 2009 5:38am Apr 20, 2009 5:38am
Quoting oblo
Hi Delta,
I am in the ej trade too now. Not doing very well...

So, how much have set your sl for this trade according to that indicator? It shows 131 pips to me. Is it right?

Thanks,

Ramon
Hi Ramon

no, it's not doing very well, but it looks like it is on its way back down again from analysing the 1m and 5m charts. Hopefully it has had its retracement and carry on with the trend south.

I have set the SL at 824.4
_______________ Say Good-bye to Buy-and-Hold
  • #229
  • Apr 20, 2009 5:43am Apr 20, 2009 5:43am
There seems to be a divergence with the low lows and the NO divergence with the High Highs.. as seen here with the Trix levels.

This is not a good sign as divergences are not good. on trix for with trend patterns.. i'm still 50/50 about the direction of this pair, need further consolidation for the down trend to account for this being a safe trade.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurjpy.gif Size: 42 KB
_______________ Say Good-bye to Buy-and-Hold
  • #230
  • Apr 20, 2009 6:51am Apr 20, 2009 6:51am
It looks like eur/jpy has consolidated and is non-trend ranging between 38.2 and 0.00 fib levels as seen here with the bollinger bands narrowed to a horizontal channel.. Till we get a breakout of this channel, I can't say which direction it is yet to go.. My stop is 1 pip above the 50.00 retracement (next resistance line) but if it breaks south, there will be a big move on this pair.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurjpy.gif Size: 55 KB
_______________ Say Good-bye to Buy-and-Hold
  • #231
  • Apr 20, 2009 7:23am Apr 20, 2009 7:23am
The good news is.. that the EUR/JPY opened a candle below the support of the BB and it opened a candle below the 0.0 fib LEVel.. 2 Indications that that has broken the consolidation and has continued its development south.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurjpy.gif Size: 55 KB
_______________ Say Good-bye to Buy-and-Hold
  • #232
  • Apr 20, 2009 8:18am Apr 20, 2009 8:18am
I am already out of EJ.
I am still not confident with the sl.
As per rules the sl for this trade was around 60 pips. And is difficult to go and get a RR 1:1 in this case. So, I preferred to exit at half atr14.
How have you done guys?
  • #233
  • Apr 20, 2009 8:26am Apr 20, 2009 8:26am
Quoting oblo
I am already out of EJ.
I am still not confident with the sl.
As per rules the sl for this trade was around 60 pips. And is difficult to go and get a RR 1:1 in this case. So, I preferred to exit at half atr14.
How have you done guys?
I have ended up even for the day so far.

The good news was that 12 pairs showed signals during today.

Even good more news was that 10 made healthy profits - either now closed or still live.

The bad news is 2 pairs have failed yet to make a profit - both of which were traded by myself and others on the thread.

eur.chf - was a loser
eur/jpy - I broke even after price had bounced around a little

It just seems to the case of choosing the wrong pair - my account does nto let me trade more that 3-4 pairs.
  • #234
  • Edited 8:54am Apr 20, 2009 8:38am | Edited 8:54am
Quoting oblo
I am already out of EJ.
I am still not confident with the sl.
As per rules the sl for this trade was around 60 pips. And is difficult to go and get a RR 1:1 in this case. So, I preferred to exit at half atr14.
How have you done guys?
I'm still in the eur/jpy at the moment.

I've also just calculated the R:R for the trade im in which is at 1:1.29

SL at 54 pips
TP at 70 pips.

The move is still on a down trend but moving slowly, so I don't see a need to exit the trade as of yet. The pair is making lower lows and is still in within its ranging trading channel as shown.

Also the USD/JPY is expected to reach a very strong resistance level of 98.00 which will dynamically affect this currency,

If USD/JPY reaches 98 before EJ reaches my 1st TP level, then I'll be exiting the trade.

The rate of progression for this channel is about -7.27 pips per hour.
Edit 1: According to my calculations, this trade should reach B/E point within the hour.
Edit 2: Now set to BE
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurjpy channel.gif Size: 56 KB
_______________ Say Good-bye to Buy-and-Hold
  • #235
  • Apr 20, 2009 9:10am Apr 20, 2009 9:10am
I got a lil loss on E/C too. Have you re-entered short later after the retracement?

Good job delta. You were right on E/J, still going down.

Ramon
  • #236
  • Apr 20, 2009 9:18am Apr 20, 2009 9:18am
Quoting oblo
I got a lil loss on E/C too. Have you re-entered short later after the retracement?

Good job delta. You were right on E/J, still going down.

Ramon
Live Trade: +70.1 pip trade at 1st Profit level
Demo Trade: Left Open (Testing alt. exit strat.)

Thank you Ramon, for the end of this candle hour, i'll be looking for more potential pairs, will post here which ones I am looking at.

No, I didn't re-enter short again, as I didnt exit the e/j on the retracement. My account size unfortunately can't open 2 simultaneous trades, so I was just in the one trade. and another short was not opened. But yes, that seems like a valid strategy if you have the funds within the correct money management techniques to use as with that technique you are averaging your R:R to better odds.
_______________ Say Good-bye to Buy-and-Hold
  • #237
  • Apr 20, 2009 9:28am Apr 20, 2009 9:28am
A potential setup is LONG USD/CHF.

According to the rules this pair is not valid yet, but over the next
1-2H this could develop into a valid signal, where the ADX is >20
and the ADX has risen since its last candle

+DI is still at 18 and rising..
MACD is not confirming the signal..

One to watch. Wait of the close of current candle or next candle.
_______________ Say Good-bye to Buy-and-Hold
  • #238
  • Apr 20, 2009 9:40am Apr 20, 2009 9:40am
Quoting oblo
I got a lil loss on E/C too. Have you re-entered short later after the retracement?

Good job delta. You were right on E/J, still going down.

Ramon
Hi oblo,

No I did not get back in on eur/chf as I saw the signal late.

Wish I had as this would have wiped out my earlier loss on this pair.
  • #239
  • Apr 20, 2009 10:11am Apr 20, 2009 10:11am
I can't seem to find any valid signals appearing or are yet to happen.

There are a few signals that have happened, which you could enter late, but that just increases the chances of a reversal or retracement putting you in
-pipland.

So as the best traders do, its best to wait for a good setup than go in hastely.
_______________ Say Good-bye to Buy-and-Hold
  • #240
  • Apr 20, 2009 10:21am Apr 20, 2009 10:21am
Quoting deltaworld
I can't seem to find any valid signals appearing or are yet to happen.

There are a few signals that have happened, which you could enter late, but that just increases the chances of a reversal or retracement putting you in
-pipland.

So as the best traders do, its best to wait for a good setup than go in hastely.
Don't worry Delta there will be some signals coming along soon.

Sounds like you had a good start to the week!
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