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Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading

  • #2,081
  • Apr 17, 2009 5:56pm Apr 17, 2009 5:56pm
I'm so angry with myself I could burn Baba G's pizza!

AstonDan thanked me for his TITZ! I don't remember sending him any TITZ I thought to myself (I seem to forget a lot these days). Now where was I, Oh yes, TITZ.

I need to remind all those registered on The Path of Learning to get their TITZ - but give Lance chance to get HIS TITZ and then put in the special place where you can get your own TITZ.

I highly recommed you get your hands on TITZ - you will not regret it and the feeling you get after, will make you better (and for some, bigger!).

I told the trouble and strife I have to go out to get TITZ and since then she hasn't spoken to me (again) - so it's just me and my 59 Stratocaster for a while.

Why am I so angry? Because I didn't see TITZ being Trading In The Zone by Mark Douglas. Damn, I'm losing my edge!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #2,082
  • Apr 17, 2009 7:44pm Apr 17, 2009 7:44pm
Strat,

What I see on EURJPY.

Weekly: Boss has confirmed double bottoms, broken the resistance, and come back testing old resistance and 20 ema.

Daily: After taking a long wild drive up, she is taking her breath and ranging. Price is testing the bottom of the rang 128.00 and also support by 50 & 100.
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  • #2,083
  • Edited 8:22pm Apr 17, 2009 8:21pm | Edited 8:22pm
Quoting patrick25
Strat,

What I see on EURJPY.

Weekly: Boss has confirmed double bottoms, broken the resistance, and come back testing old resistance and 20 ema.

Daily: After taking a long wild drive up, she is taking her breath and ranging. Price is testing the bottom of the rang 128.00 and also support by 50 & 100.
OK. That is what you see - what are you going to do with what you see?

Look more closely at the BOSS - what do you see with the two previous bars prior to this week? Price hasn't bounced off that resistance - not a good sign

Have you looked at the BIG BOSS - does that tell you anything?

Daily - terminology - there is no 100 - do you mean BOSS 20? More important than that, where has price closed with respect to the 20? Where has price closed with respect to the close of the last swing? Does this tell you any pattern?

Just for information, price closed on the 150. How has price behaved before with respect to it?

Also, why have you got VOLUME on there? Is it telling you anything? If not, take it off so that you can see price better. If it is telling you something, please share with us.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #2,084
  • Apr 17, 2009 9:16pm Apr 17, 2009 9:16pm
Strat,

Thank you for your input. Yes the big boss hit 250sma and pulled back and currently having a long wick not a good sign.

Price has respected 150ema from last swing and this week. Will see if 150ema holds price again next week.

Wow what a vision you have.
  • #2,085
  • Apr 17, 2009 10:15pm Apr 17, 2009 10:15pm
Quoting patrick25
Strat,

Thank you for your input. Yes the big boss hit 250sma and pulled back and currently having a long wick not a good sign.

Price has respected 150ema from last swing and this week. Will see if 150ema holds price again next week.

Wow what a vision you have.
There is no 250 - do you mean BOSS 50? Come on patrick25, get with the program!

Go back way into history over the life of the contract to see how she respects it, not just last week or the previous swing.

Thanks, but my vision gets clouded on an evening which seems directly proportional to the amount of red wine consumed!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #2,086
  • Apr 17, 2009 10:42pm Apr 17, 2009 10:42pm
[quote=strat;2677273]Young Mr. Grace. You have disappointed me - I would hope any of our group could ask ANY question without having to preface it with ""Forgive me if this is a stupid question.""


[quote]


Sorry Strat. I just did not want to get answers like STFW. I have googled it and did not find any thing on it, I found the descriptions and what they mean, but did not find any explanations as to the why. Most people just tend to accept without questioning. Ohh a hanging man, price is going down. I have always asked questions if I do not understand. As a result I get flamed in forums often. People assume that because I am asking a question, it means I have not read the forum (when I have). I always read the forums before I post, I always search the web before I ask questions.


Sorry for the rant, pent up frustrations from other forums. I appreciate this forum and the knowledge it contains.
  • #2,087
  • Apr 17, 2009 10:52pm Apr 17, 2009 10:52pm
[quote=rgrace;2677473][quote=strat;2677273]Young Mr. Grace. You have disappointed me - I would hope any of our group could ask ANY question without having to preface it with ""Forgive me if this is a stupid question.""


Quote


Sorry Strat....

Now you are making me feel worse than ever. Have we helped you or antagonised you? I want everyone on MY thread to have the answers they are looking for. Did you get the REAL answers? Can you benefit from what we told you? Did we offend you/piss you off in any way? Please be honest. I want MY thread to be different from anything else out there. I want people to come on here KNOWING they will get answers, the truth and NO BULLSHIT.

Please let me know - this is VERY IMPORTANT TO ME. Thank you.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #2,088
  • Apr 17, 2009 10:59pm Apr 17, 2009 10:59pm
[quote=strat;2677481][quote=rgrace;2677473]
Quoting strat
Young Mr. Grace. You have disappointed me - I would hope any of our group could ask ANY question without having to preface it with ""Forgive me if this is a stupid question.""




Now you are making me feel worse than ever. Have we helped you or antagonised you? I want everyone on MY thread to have the answers they are looking for. Did you get the REAL answers? Can you benefit from what we told you? Did we offend you/piss you off in any way? Please be honest. I want MY thread to be different...

Did not mean to make you feel bad. I have had only positive experiences on here. This forum keeps it real. I receive answers to what I ask, if I screw up or am in the process of screwing up people are quick to set me straight. I have not been offended on this thread in any way, I am sorry if I implied that I had been. This forum is very helpful, the best I have seen. The post was in no way directed at anyone in this forum. Just a rant from previous experiences on various newsgroups, forums etc.
  • #2,089
  • Edited 12:06pm Apr 18, 2009 12:01pm | Edited 12:06pm
BOSS now has confirmed swing high on 4/10. Should see us through to first or second week in May if cycles are anything to go by.

Same for NZDJPY
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #2,090
  • Apr 18, 2009 2:03pm Apr 18, 2009 2:03pm
Strat,
Thanks again for an excellent post wrt the trading psychology. I have come to realise exactly what you have mentioned over the past few weeks, that one is cheating one's self when delving into the intraday charts on a daily entry.

It takes great discipline to open a daily position and then not even take a peek at the market in the day when sitting infront of an internet connected 'clever-telly' most of the day!!

I have fouled up recently on a couple of trades by moving a stop intraday based on a 1/4hr chart, only to be closed out and then have the market turn within a few pips of that wretched stop move!! So now I have a new rule never to look at open positions in the day. This has also involved me in deleting my SB's platform from my mobile phone - which I seemed to be checking at lunch time etc.

Still got a long way to go.

The post on the HMen and Inverted Hammers is great too. I have been 'lucky' in the past with both candles but when you look for them in old charts they do often signal a reversal is coming - but more often not just yet - you need to wait for the PA to get you in at significant SR levels.

Hammers and Shootin' stars are all we need to make money I believe; combined with patience - which is so hard as the human mind percieves so many possibilities on any chart; real discipline is needed. - just remember that we (retail traders) hold the greatest trumpcard as we can choose when to trade, if at all. City traders are paid to make money and are under pressure to perform every day!! We have the luxury of only taking the very best trades - so use that luxury troops!!!
Grim
Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #2,091
  • Apr 18, 2009 2:23pm Apr 18, 2009 2:23pm
Gold
Well, what to do hey?? Summer is usually a rubbish time for gold buying. Oct heralds the start of the Indian buying season (weddings).

I have a weekly hammer off the SR level at 858 combined with a boss 50% Fib swing low to high.

Note we also have a double bottom on the daily too. The low of weekly hammer has not been broken and we have penetrated the Boss 50MA, but not enough to warrant a rejection.
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Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #2,092
  • Apr 18, 2009 10:55pm Apr 18, 2009 10:55pm
Quoting strat
You worry me, my friend - ""Im starting to understand your thought processes"" - nobody, not even my trouble and strife for over 45 years can understand me or my thought process!

Seriously though, these are all what I hope to expand on in later posts in fact I just did one earlier on about early trend recognition.

""But how do you personally discern, first that momentum is in the direction of the trade, and what boundaries your going to institute as your quote unquote 'meat'.""

Let me just whet your appetite...
Going over the thread again Strat and I ran into this post.

There are others in our group that might not know what you're talking about, so, for their benefit, would you mind explaining the following in simpler terms?

What was the price action you bought on Oct 21? Looks like a doji on the previous day, not a hammer.

I see inside bars in the preceding days, but long wicks.

Any other confluence of events not mentioned?

Do you rank this one of your more riskier trades (non "A").

BTW, what were your initial targets for the Oct 21 trade?

My appetite is whet as I continue down the path.
  • #2,093
  • Apr 19, 2009 7:24am Apr 19, 2009 7:24am
Quoting strat
Have you asked el duende?
EL DUENDE......... yes ..SEND ME YOURRRRRR MONEY!!!!!!!!
  • #2,094
  • Apr 19, 2009 7:29am Apr 19, 2009 7:29am
Quoting AstonDan
Personally, i'll be WAITING to see PA ABOVE/OFF 1.5 SR. That's it, job done, forget about until then, relax, no stress.

Easy like a sunday morning

THATS WHY IM EEEEEEEAAAAAAAASSSSSSSSYYYYYYYYY,easy like sunday mmmmmmmmooooooorrrrrrrrrrr...........nnnnnnniiiiiiiiiiiiiiinnnnnnnnnn.

Where you been hidin dude?
  • #2,095
  • Apr 19, 2009 7:42am Apr 19, 2009 7:42am
Quoting AminAS
Sure, if I was incredibly dim I would have entered on a 25% chance. That is obviously not what I meant! Are you now going to try and send me your account details for a wire transfer?

If I entered a perfectly good PASR setup, and the market being the market puts up the PA to start moving against me, why not close it out when those signals become clear!!!!
Gentlemen.......what are you going on about.........if you learn what Strat and i have been saying and showing.....live........you will see that a play will not just "lose" but the price action on your chosen managment system will show you if you need to cut your loss and declare it "invalid" as the whole of your analysis is wrong.

A perfectly good PASR set up wont just suddenly go against you if you are perfectly good at selecting AND manageing PASR setups........

So if on your management system selected for that trade you have a signal to exit and you happen to be down you go,if your up your up....and so and so.....

This is why we build a system profile....so we dont have these kind of hustons when we are floating at sea in violent waves............g
  • #2,096
  • Apr 19, 2009 12:40pm Apr 19, 2009 12:40pm
Quoting Baba G

Where you been hidin dude?
Hey BG,

Duckin' divin' weaving' deceivin'!

But mostly LEARNING!
  • #2,097
  • Apr 19, 2009 1:12pm Apr 19, 2009 1:12pm
Quoting strat
Very good observations. Have you checked to see what the BOSS and BIG BOSS are doing - maybe there are more clues there, Sherlock!

Clues on the BOSS and BIG BOSS. Ok let's look at the BIG BOSS first (I am assuming this means monthly, if my understanding is correct, if not PLEASE enlighten me.) Unfortunately, my data on monthly only goes a couple of years back. But from what I see, over the past few months there have been lower lows. The current monthly candle is forming a very pretty shooting star as well. Of course the month is only half way over so not sure how well that will hold up. Which brings up a question, since we wait for the daily bar to close before counting it as a legitimate signal, do we also disregard the current monthly candle until it actually closes? The 20 on the monthly is going down, the other MA's are not working correctly due to lack of longer term data.

That is all I see on the BIG BOSS, I am sure there may be more there that I overlooked. I am new at this after all, feel free to point me in the right direction if this is totally off base.

Now on the BOSS.

First of all I noticed that the .5920ish area (.5922 is the actual number I have) appears to be major resistance. It is weekly resistance as well. This area is the most recent bounce of this move. I also noticed that this pair is in a down trend on the BOSS and BIG BOSS as well. The previous swing high was not violated by this current up move we have had. Price did close a little higher than the previous swing high. The high was not violated though. The last swing low was a significant swing low, so overall price is making lower highs and lower lows. And has been for a while. The price is sitting right above the BOSS 20. I am basically waiting for a close below that and price action, to show me it wants to go down. Are these the things you were referring to Strat? Or am I way off base?
  • #2,098
  • Apr 19, 2009 1:31pm Apr 19, 2009 1:31pm
Quoting Bloom
Taking a step back, if you're 75% sure its going to go and hit your SL, that means you have only 25% belief that your trade is going to go your way. Now, if you hadn't the trade open would you take it with a 25% chance that it will work - NO!!

Easy said when there are no emotions involved, but I suppose that is the way we need to think.

I have never thought of it in that way. Interesting food for thought. Thanks for giving me something else to mull over, and think about.
  • #2,099
  • Apr 19, 2009 1:57pm Apr 19, 2009 1:57pm
Quoting strat

As discussed in an earlier post, put on 3 contracts and take PROFITS at either the first and second levels of S & R as appropriate or in increments of 50 pips - which ever polishes your knob! On the last contract, you trail this behind a suitable level which you are comfortable with UNTIL you are either stopped out or you see a PASR REVERSAL bar

First of all, the 3 contract issue. I have tried this in the past, and something about it really bothers me. Of all the books I have read one of the basic principles in every book is, Let your winners run and cut losses short.

If we put on 3 contracts, and take profit on 1 or 2 of them at a measly pip count, would that not be against the major trading tenet of minimum risk maximum profit?

If you think about it, you are risking the same amount of pips with each of these contracts. And from what I have seen it is usually 100-250 pips. So you have maximum risk at the riskiest part of the trade. Then you take profit at a very measly pip amount (after risking 100+ pips on the trade). Now when a trade is going with you, should you not be considering compounding it? Instead you are minimizing your future profits.

Now I am aware of the psychological benefits of taking profits. But I guess my issue is whether the maximum risk for minimal profits is worth the psychological benefits that you receive.

This is just my take on it, I am sure there are a hundred different ways to think about this type of thing.


Now for the second part, you mentioned staying in the trade until you see a PASR reversal bar.

What do you usually do when you see a reversal bar?

Do you usually end the trade immediately? Take profits and run.

OR

Do you usually move your stops to the failure point of that particular pattern?

OR is it a combination of both?

And what reversal bars do you pay the most attention to. I know the obvious ones, ie shooting star, hammer. But, are there a lot of other candle patterns or J16 patterns you would exit because of?

Also, in a previous post, you mentioned that you do not do the 3 lot exit early technique. How do you generally do it? I know at times in the longer term trades you enter as many times as price action allows. What about the shorter term trades though? Do you usually enter in with all your lots at the beginning? And then exit with all lots at the same time? Or do you generally compound into the smaller trades as well?


Geez, I asked a lot more questions than I had originally intended. Looking forward to hearing your take on these things Strat, and any one else who has an opinion on these subjects.
  • #2,100
  • Edited 3:00pm Apr 19, 2009 2:36pm | Edited 3:00pm
Quoting rgrace
First of all, the 3 contract issue. I have tried this in the past, and something about it really bothers me. Of all the books I have read one of the basic principles in every book is, Let your winners run and cut losses short.

If we put on 3 contracts, and take profit on 1 or 2 of them at a measly pip count, would that not be against the major trading tenet of minimum risk maximum profit?
Hi Rgrace, i don't think there is one answer to this as it down to what each individual trader is comfortable with so you may just have to find out for yourself

Personally, i set a realistic TP level at which i will close half my position and move my stop to BE. This releases money into my account - VERY IMPORTANT, protects my capital - ULTRA IMPORTANT, and keeps me in a trade AT NO RISK.

If it continues in the direction i entered on, great. I'll ride the wave and look for PASR to allow me to add to that trade, compounding my position size all with little or no risk due to my initial TP. I also trail stops manually and am continuing to experiment with the best way of doing this.

This is how I AM COMFORTABLE in my trading at present and is RIGHT FOR ME. I have no doubt i'll grow, develop and finesse my strategy as i gain more and more experience.

So generally, i am taking profits to GROW MY ACCOUNT but also letting them run to GROW MY ACCOUNT and cutting my losses short to GROW MY ACCOUNT!

You'll find your path only by experiencing it
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