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  • #2,061
  • Apr 17, 2009 11:02am Apr 17, 2009 11:02am
Quoting Baba G
Damn.......there is bound to be someone...if i can just get them before the bucket shops.......!!!!!!!!!!!!
Have you asked el duende?
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #2,062
  • Apr 17, 2009 11:47am Apr 17, 2009 11:47am
Josh "Jduester" on J16 has done a great job putting together his notes on Mark Douglas's Trading in the Zone book and are attached for those registered on The Path of Learning.

Thanks Josh, your input and co-operation is much appreciated.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #2,063
  • Apr 17, 2009 12:02pm Apr 17, 2009 12:02pm
Hi Strat and to all
I have pm'd Lance to join the path of learning, as i'm very impressed with the thread, some great info and sound advice being dispensed,seems a great environment in which to learn.
I'm back on a demo after crushing a few modest accounts, still studying j16 and jacko, but hopefully now i am at the start of doing things properly.
Look forward to contributing as and when i can. Regards.

p.s. to the chelsea boys on the thread, Boys!!!! Boys!!!!
You're in the right neighbourhood,but have obviously got lost! Allow me to help if i may- come down the fulham rd and take a left towards putney bridge. Big park on the right just before the bridge, in there you will find a magical venue, home to a team playing magical football.
The venue?? Craven Cottage The team?? the mighty Fulham!!!
Hope this helps http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon10.gifhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon10.gif
  • #2,064
  • Apr 17, 2009 12:05pm Apr 17, 2009 12:05pm
Quoting Life of Pi_p
This is definitely a great week to get experience with patience. That's an area that I definitely have come a long way with, but still have a long way to go. I think I'm in the right place to shorten that trip
Good for you Pi man! Keep on The Path of Learning and do not falter as you approach the cross streets!

Patience and Discipline are important parts of Trading Psychology which accounts for 90% of our success.

Ignore this at your peril, Beryl, and lose your cash, Slash!
(Watch out Paul Simon - I may yet get into song writing!)
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #2,065
  • Apr 17, 2009 12:28pm Apr 17, 2009 12:28pm
Quoting Bloom
Strat

I've noticed you mention a 150 MA on occasions. Do you use this on all charts or only were it is useful (GBPUSD)?
Bloom, I have had the 150, 200 and 365 on and off my charts more times than a hooker has her knickers!

I had times where I had them on all the time but after only putting on 4 S&R lines, it still gets "too busy" and takes away the benefit of a "first glance" analysis.

Other times, I would just put them on for my End of Week analysis and then continue them on those pairs where they were coming in to play.

Right now, I'm going through a phase of having the 150 and 365 on all the time in a dark colour so that it is not too distracting.

The point is though, along with the 20 and 50, the 150 and 365 are important when they approach prices. We should always be aware of where they are with respect to price, and, just as important, know how each particular pair respond to them.

Bloom, you mentioned the 150 on GBPUSD. What about the 365 on USDJPY? Did you see that?
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #2,066
  • Apr 17, 2009 12:32pm Apr 17, 2009 12:32pm
Quoting PaulKing
Have you looked at the Utube videos by Your Trading Coach that Nicola posted earlier (post number 1680 on page 112)

Vol 6 Hanging Man
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_wg_N...eature=related
Vol 8 Inverted Hammer
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xTP9g...eature=related...

Thanks I will take a look at that. I did watch some youtube videos a while back on candlesticks but it did not explain the reasons behind it. I assumed that these were the same videos, you know what they say about when you assume. I will go back and watch those.
  • #2,067
  • Apr 17, 2009 12:51pm Apr 17, 2009 12:51pm
Quoting Bloom
Taking a step back, if you're 75% sure its going to go and hit your SL, that means you have only 25% belief that your trade is going to go your way. Now, if you hadn't the trade open would you take it with a 25% chance that it will work - NO!!

Easy said when there are no emotions involved, but I suppose that is the way we need to think.
Sure, if I was incredibly dim I would have entered on a 25% chance. That is obviously not what I meant! Are you now going to try and send me your account details for a wire transfer?

If I entered a perfectly good PASR setup, and the market being the market puts up the PA to start moving against me, why not close it out when those signals become clear!!!!
Bang.
  • #2,068
  • Edited 4:51pm Apr 17, 2009 2:06pm | Edited 4:51pm
Quoting AminAS
When you are in a position with a set stoploss that is obviously within your money management rules, and you know with 75% assurance or better that price is going to go and hit your stop loss, is it smarter to close out the trade early, cutting losses short, saving yourself from some of the possible drawdown?
Amin - what are you doing on here? I thought you were back on J16 learning candle recognition?

There are as many arguments for, as there are against, in what you asked.

There are also two distinct and very different aspects of trading involved in this:

1) Technical analysis
2) Trading psychology

We need to blend these two together sensibly and logically if we are ever to have a chance in making money at trading. No matter how good we are in our technical skills, once we have our money "on the line" (and the more money - the greater the STRESS and pressure), our emotions, greed and fear, kick in and take over control of our trade.

Remembering the lurker who PM'd me saying something like "Assuming I have my emotions under control.......", Yeah, right! BUT it CAN be done but you then have to draw on two other aspects of trading psychology - patience and discipline.

This is why I keep repeating ad infinitum, success and making money in trading is 90% trading psychology.

Therefore, my answer to this will always be from the trading psychology aspect BECAUSE we have to keep our emotions, specifically greed and fear, under control as best we can.

The best way I know to do this is through a TRADING PLAN

You PLAN THE TRADE and then TRADE THE PLAN.

If you do this, you will ALWAYS keep your emotions in check and away from any decision making.

There are, however, provisos in this:

You must have your $/pip not only at your M % risk level but also at YOUR EMOTIONAL TOLERANCE LEVEL. It is no good having a huge trading account which allows you to trade $10/pip contracts if you are a huge EMOTIONAL BAG OF NERVES during the trade. Reduce your $/pip to a level that you feel comfortable with WHEN YOU LOSE.

You must always define your RISK (LOSING) before even thinking about profits. Forget about thinking (and dreaming) how much you will win. Instead, think and ACCEPT how much you will LOSE.
Forget about profits - when you are CONSISTENT over a long period of time (at the very least 1 year), your profits will take care of themselves.

So, let's go ever a typical scenario:

You see and recognise PASR, so you want to make a trade.

FIRST - where does my SL go? How much will I LOSE if this goes against me? Do I ACCEPT the RISK (LOSS)?

If Yes, next step. If NO - reduce the $/pip until you ACCEPT the RISK(LOSS) or DO NOT TAKE THE TRADE.

This is CRITICAL and VERY IMPORTANT - you have to be VERY HONEST with yourself here - you MUST be able to say to yourself

"THIS IS THE RISK I AM PREPARED TO TAKE ON THIS TRADE AND I WILL UNCONDITIONALLY ACCEPT THAT IT MAY BE A 100% LOSS"

If you cannot do this then YOU DO NOT TRADE!

SECOND (and only after accepting the RISK(LOSING)), where do I take PROFIT?

As discussed in an earlier post, put on 3 contracts and take PROFITS at either the first and second levels of S & R as appropriate or in increments of 50 pips - which ever polishes your knob! On the last contract, you trail this behind a suitable level which you are comfortable with UNTIL you are either stopped out or you see a PASR REVERSAL bar

So, this is now YOUR PLAN

THIRD - Do I believe in my PLAN? Do I have 100% absolute faith in my PLAN?

If the answer to this is NO - make a NEW PLAN
Do NOT trade until you UNCONDITIONALLY ACCEPT YOUR PLAN

FOURTH - Plan accepted so place trades. Enter SL and TP levels

FIFTH - Trade Management - You are trading the Daily time frame so no need to check your charts UNTIL after 5pm EST - NY close. -right, Dan?

IF you have been HONEST WITH YOURSELF and accepted YOUR PLAN then there is NOTHING TO DO!

You will either be stopped out for a LOSS - which you have already accepted and is no longer a concern for you

OR

You have to start taking PROFITS

There is NOTHING ELSE FOR YOU TO DO

"Ah, but what if something happens and I see the trade going against me, what then?" I hear our high school student say.

FIRST - YOU SHOULD NOT BE MONITORING PROGRESS DURING THE DAY ON A DAILY CHART.

If you are doing this then YOU STILL HAVE THE MENTALITY OF A SHORT TERM LOSING TRADER. You must GET SERIOUS and CHANGE YOUR TRADING STYLE.

SECOND - IF YOU ASKED THIS QUESTION THEN YOU DO NOT BELIEVE IN YOUR PLAN and VERY, VERY IMPORTANT - YOU HAVE CHEATED YOURSELF - YOU HAVE LIED TO YOURSELF!

YOU EITHER BELIEVE IN YOUR PLAN - OR YOU DON'T - it really is that simple.

So, my short answer is:

PLAN THE TRADE & TRADE THE PLAN --------right Dan?

15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #2,069
  • Apr 17, 2009 2:11pm Apr 17, 2009 2:11pm
Quoting AminAS
Sure, if I was incredibly dim I would have entered on a 25% chance. That is obviously not what I meant! Are you now going to try and send me your account details for a wire transfer?

If I entered a perfectly good PASR setup, and the market being the market puts up the PA to start moving against me, why not close it out when those signals become clear!!!!
Hey, Amin, calm down! Bloom did not mean it in the way you took it. He WAS being positive and constructive which is more than can be said for your reply.

I suggest you issue him an apology and refrain from attacking your fellow traders.

You can also remove two of your picks which now take you back to LEVEL ONE.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #2,070
  • Apr 17, 2009 2:15pm Apr 17, 2009 2:15pm
Quoting strat
Amin - what are you doing on here? I thought you were back on J16 learning candle recognition?

There are as many arguments for, as there are against, in what you asked.

There are also two distinct and very different aspects of trading involved in this:

1) Technical analysis
2) Trading psychology

We need to blend these two together sensibly and logically if we are ever to have a chance in making money at trading. No matter how good we are in our technical skills, once we have our money "on the line" (and the more money - the greater...
Hi Strat,

This is my first post here and I'm really glad to found this thread. I just finished to read a chapter on the book investment psychology explained by Martin Pring that talks exactly about you just posted... I'm not surprised why you're successful!

Looking forward to join this team!

Congrats for your trade!
  • #2,071
  • Apr 17, 2009 4:19pm Apr 17, 2009 4:19pm
Quoting strat
Amin - what are you doing on here? I thought you were back on J16 learning candle recognition?

There are as many arguments for, as there are against, in what you asked.

There are also two distinct and very different aspects of trading involved in this:

1) Technical analysis
2) Trading psychology

We need to blend these two together sensibly and logically if we are ever to have a chance in making money at trading. No matter how good we are in our technical skills, once we have our money "on the line" (and the more money - the greater...

A golden 5 pick post
  • #2,072
  • Apr 17, 2009 4:33pm Apr 17, 2009 4:33pm
Quoting rgrace
Forgive me if this is a stupid question....
Young Mr. Grace. You have disappointed me - I would hope any of our group could ask ANY question without having to preface it with ""Forgive me if this is a stupid question.""

I have asked more questions in my life than Baba G has had pasta!. If you don't ask questions, how will you ever get answers?

Now, when I was in important executive meetings and I thought what I was going to ask might seem stupid, I would usually say, ""There are others in our group that might not know what you're talking about, so, for their benefit, would you mind explaining it in simpler terms?""

Right - Hanging Man and Inverted Hammer:

Here is my take:

Hanging Man:
Despite what the "experts" say, I don't treat a Hanging Man as a reversal bar. I have been caught out too many times doing that, thank you!. Instead, I use it as "EARLY WARNING" that a top may be coming in. I always need PASR after a Hanging Man before I will trade.

A Hanging Man tells me that the sellers sent out a scouting party and the buyers rejected it. However, the fact that they could drive prices down, tells me that sellers are positioning themselves and the buyers are looking to take profits.

There are other threads and forums that recommend selling a 50% retrace of the Hanging Man bar - NOT FOR ME - I need to see the bars BEFORE it and the bars AFTER it, before I do anything. Yes, I might lose 100 or so pips in profit but more likely, I haven't lost anything.

Inverted Hammer:
The Inverted Hammer at the end of a downtrend is what a Hanging Man is at the end of an uptrend. So, for me, it is EARLY WARNING that a bottom may be coming in.

Similarly, an Inverted Hammer tells me that the buyers sent out a scouting party and the sellers rejected it. However, the fact that they could drive prices up, tells me that buyers are positioning themselves and the sellers are looking to take profits.

Again, there are other threads and forums that recommend buying a 50% retrace of the Inverted Hammer bar - NOT FOR ME - I need to see the bars BEFORE it and the bars AFTER it, before I do anything. Yes, I might lose 100 or so pips in profit but more likely, I haven't lost anything.

The Path of Learning focuses on the two more important reversal bars:

The Shooting Star and Hammer

Learn these, practice these and demo these and become an EXPERT on these before playing any other candles. There are many successful and profitable traders for which these two candles are the BASIS of their method.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #2,073
  • Apr 17, 2009 4:43pm Apr 17, 2009 4:43pm
Quoting lordgbengs
I just want to say thank you for your posts,they are helpful,i appreciate.
Thank you for taking the time to express your appreciation -why not register for The Path of Learning so that you can benefit as others are doing?

Thank you
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #2,074
  • Apr 17, 2009 4:48pm Apr 17, 2009 4:48pm
Quoting golfer27
Hi Strat and to all
I have pm'd Lance to join the path of learning, as i'm very impressed with the thread, some great info and sound advice being dispensed,seems a great environment in which to learn.
I'm back on a demo after crushing a few modest accounts, still studying j16 and jacko, but hopefully now i am at the start of doing things properly.
Look forward to contributing as and when i can. Regards.

p.s. to the chelsea boys on the thread, Boys!!!! Boys!!!!
You're in the right neighbourhood,but have obviously got lost! Allow me to help if...
Well golfer27, you have a very good chance of getting a Hole in 1 on here but can you manage 18 holes?

Glad you joined, let us know what your immediate problems/concerns are.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #2,075
  • Apr 17, 2009 4:52pm Apr 17, 2009 4:52pm
Quoting strat
Josh "Jduester" on J16 has done a great job putting together his notes on Mark Douglas's Trading in the Zone book and are attached for those registered on The Path of Learning.

Thanks Josh, your input and co-operation is much appreciated.
Evening Strat, nothing attached in your post, where can we find Josh's notes?

Cheers
Dan
  • #2,076
  • Apr 17, 2009 4:58pm Apr 17, 2009 4:58pm
Quoting psneto
Hi Strat,

This is my first post here and I'm really glad to found this thread. I just finished to read a chapter on the book investment psychology explained by Martin Pring that talks exactly about you just posted... I'm not surprised why you're successful!

Looking forward to join this team!

Congrats for your trade!
Yeah, I taught him everything he knows!

Now that you have found us, register on The Path of Learning by sending your details to Lance (rogueforex).
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #2,077
  • Apr 17, 2009 5:07pm Apr 17, 2009 5:07pm
Quoting AstonDan
Evening Strat, nothing attached in your post, where can we find Josh's notes?

Cheers
Dan
Who is a naughty boy then? Lance (rogueforex) issued instructions on where only those registered on The Path of Learning could find attachments and special notes, instructions, how to make $100,000 in 6 weeks etc., etc.

I think Lance is AWOL at the minute so give the search party chance to track him down whereupon we will get him to catch up on all his unfinished business before we shoot him!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #2,078
  • Apr 17, 2009 5:10pm Apr 17, 2009 5:10pm
Quoting strat
Who is a naughty boy then? Lance (rogueforex) issued instructions on where only those registered on The Path of Learning could find attachments and special notes, instructions, how to make $100,000 in 6 weeks etc., etc.

I think Lance is AWOL at the minute so give the search party chance to track him down whereupon we will get him to catch up on all his unfinished business before we shoot him!
Yup, checked there before asking.

Are we seeing confirmation of a swing low on Cable Big Boss?
  • #2,079
  • Apr 17, 2009 5:28pm Apr 17, 2009 5:28pm
Quoting AstonDan

Are we seeing confirmation of a swing low on Cable Big Boss?
Hey Dan, just noticed - where is your 1 pick logo?

Well spotted Dan, that's another pick for you - Lance, 2 pick logo for Dan!

The BIG BOSS low is well and truly confirmed now! The BOSS is making higher lows and higher highs. The Daily is making higher lows and higher highs.

""This may be telling us something, Robin, now where did I put the Bat manual on when something like this happens?""
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #2,080
  • Apr 17, 2009 5:33pm Apr 17, 2009 5:33pm
Quoting strat
Hey Dan, just noticed - where is your 1 pick logo?

Well spotted Dan, that's another pick for you - Lance, 2 pick logo for Dan!

The BIG BOSS low is well and truly confirmed now! The BOSS is making higher lows and higher highs. The Daily is making higher lows and higher highs.

""This may be telling us something, Robin, now where did I put the Bat manual on when something like this happens?""
Personally, i'll be WAITING to see PA ABOVE/OFF 1.5 SR. That's it, job done, forget about until then, relax, no stress.

Easy like a sunday morning
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