Extracted Thread (per thread starter's request)

Another day of big swings in the Books.

Probably the most obvious feature on the chart is the clean bounce off the 50ema... again ((white circles))

The last time that happened formed the LOD for March 30, it completed the 50% retrace of the larger move fibbed on the left side of chart and initiated a 500 pip run to the North. It forms the low anchor for my current near term swing fib as well, shown by the shaded ellipses, and the upper edge of my lower S/R zone as represented by the gold shaded bars that have been on my Daily for quite a while.

Given the almost textbook "Dragonfly doji" at the bottom of this current run ((yellow shaded box))... I'd anticipate a bullish turn at this point, the only question being at what point in which session to look for it engaging. I say almost textbook except for the 36 pip upper wick on my 5pm EST Close. Given the enormous trange this thing has traveled in the last 24 hrs, I'm not quibbling over a couple dozen pips.



Looking for a "launch point" for a potential Bullish Reversal brings up this issue... We're coming up on a long weekend, multiple holidays on both Friday and Monday sessions that are sure to skew things every whichaway for all the reasons we anticipate, and that probably starting very soon, or already responsible for some of what we've seen today.

In other words, technically we ought to go up, but there's reasons in my other View to believe we could break lower as well given the state of things in the EZ on the heels of the the recent USD strength...
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20602081&sid=amFG6IESMB_U&refer=benchmark_currency_rates

We're still reasonably close to that overall 50% fibo, the downturn is only 2 days old with the most recent 3600 high being the (almost) 78% retrace of that earlier move(shaded blue circle)... and todays low breaking back below the 14% fibo and nearly retesting the previous Low at 3100... And we're back where we closed 2 days ago, almost to the pip.

Any Retest and Failure of the 3050/3100 level erases the Bullish and reinstates the Bearish bias, at least imo.

So, I plan to sit back and watch, take notes, catch up on my Funnymentals and Wreckednicals, enjoy the weekend with my Best Pal Ever and a few other friends and all that sort of thing.

Ya'll enjoy yours as well.

Looks like my Other View had more support than I realized... so much for the Wreckednicals. I won't bother posting another chart but the 50ema ((currently 3153)) got busted pretty good and price is till hovering there a'rd 3150ish currently.

I don't think the current session low of 3088 qualifies as a Retest or a Failure yet as momentum has been so low since the drop. The Eurozone banking holidays pretty much invalidate things imo so I'd have to Wait and See... but it ain't lookin Good for Da Bulls atm.

Weekend Plan unchanged... taking notes and enjoying the break.

The EU Daily chart looks bearish to me......by the way, my MT4 says the session/Daily low so far is 1.3092, not 1.3088.....???

I agree on the bearish bias right now simply becuz 3 out of the previous 4 days have been very bearish, so there's obvious momentum downwards.

The caveat here tho from a technical (or wrecknical) perspective is that we're running Head On into a potentially tuff Support zone depending on where you draw it and how thick you make it that I don't feel can be adequately tested until all the Players are back in the Game... next week sometime.

Hence my Waffling from the sidelines, and since I'm all hooked up anyways with Stuff... it works out well for me.

The LOD thing... I've got 3 different prices here, call it 3090ish instead.

And it's off to Lala land for me. Careful trades...

It's no Spielberg video but I've been bearish too AK.

I briefly explain why here.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ii6DSEhJSNE

Thanks to the Great Jaywalker ((take just a moment here...))

I've finally learned how to insert a hypertext link into things on the thread instead of pasting those Ugly Links, and I've redone the Index on post #1 accordingly, with more to come soon.

btw... i just watched that Killer Bunny video from the Holy Grail again that Mikkom posted ((it's in the Index)) and just started howling all over again. That thing is hysterical and it reminds me of a few trades I've been in...

As undeserved as they are, thanks for the kudos.

The internet is an Amazing Place...

One of the Latest Additions to the Post Index below... there are a couple others not as obvious...

BEMACS' World Famous Birdcake Recipe (http://bemac.org/otherstuff.aspx) I kid you not. Much.

Now who knows what "treacle" is...

Ahhh S#it.
Busted.
I'm no more than a country kitchen hack.

At the last moment, I elected to post this Here instead of Elsewhere, in order to limit the Hubub and whatnot. If you agree with the Charge, then don't let the Door hit you in the ar$e when you Leave.

If you agree with the Answer or mostly so, then So Be It and we can all just Keep On Carryin' On accordingly. I don't need Support here as I'm content to Stand alone on what I know to be True. In other words, replies Welcome but not expected... I really don't want to start a Brawl. This time.

********************

As I was just backreading a certain thread over the weekend, I stumbled upon a certain post and it has gotten "stuck in my craw" ((for all my ESL friends here--> stuck in craw (http://www.phrases.org.uk/bulletin_board/21/messages/947.html)))

Injustice in all of it's many forms is one of my Trigger Points and I'm a sucker for a Cause, usually Losing ones as my record will bear out, but that's the way I'm wired and those closest to me have learned to deal with it. They don't have the luxury of an Ignore button like all of you, and yet most of Them put up with most of Me most of the time.

If and when I'm the Guilty Party as occasionally happens, I'm usually the most mortified one of the bunch and go to all kinds of crazy lengths to set things Right. So. All that said, the following needs Saying as an Unjust Charge has been dealt here imo, and remains Unanswered. I will take it upon myself to Reply.

First the thing that got Stuck... I'm not "Quoting" the original post with source altho I am quoting portions of the exact text. I'm also leaving some details out as I only care that the Record is balanced. Beyond that you'll have to decide how to Proceed and dig it up if you must. The post went something like this which I have edited for the reason just stated.

"...From my experience there are 3 kinds of traders here...

1)the seniors who are usually arrogant and cocky and tend to make fun of the new traders or those of different vision (like bemac for...((alleged offense deleted)) ... while they dont usually share their skill, they are quick to bash others apparently for "fun".

2)certain seniors who love to share their knowledge... they are ak4x... ((rest of the List deleted so as not to involve them in My Rant...)) and a few others..."

So. Where to start. As I'm listed as one of the "good guys" ((for now anyway)) or else I've gotten mixed up in some Mighty Good Company by mistake, I'll be glad to share some of the so called "knowledge" I am purported to possess if you have a minute. That's about how long it will take me to tell you everything I know... Good Luck and Welcome to it.... just remember to pack some Cash when you try to pay for that cup of coffee with anything I've ever said here...

As far as "sharing their skill", I will Answer that with this... It's much more about the "student learning" than the "master sharing" and many students today want to bang out a sword before they've ever learned to even lay the fire. Some of you may find this as fascinating as I do from a story about a Japanese Swordsmithing apprentice...

"It was up to one's master to grant his apprentices recognition and indepence or not, and this was officialized by the government. However, licences are still delivered depending on whether the apprentice is considered to have assimilitated the techniques and the right attitude for the craft.
http://www.soulsmithing.com/PERSONS/NADEAU/NadeauEN.html (http://www.soulsmithing.com/PERSONS/NADEAU/NadeauEN.html)

A lifetime of learning doesn't get transferred in a few dozen or hundred posts on a thread at Forex Factory, and I'm pretty sure we all know that. There's Technique, but there's also Attitude. Both must be mastered or One will wind up all Lopsided. Selah...

As a Student, I have fairly lost count of the Priceless Nuggets I've picked up from countless hours of trolling Old Posts from some of these arrogant newbie bashers and am immeasurably the Better Off for it... Bemac just so happening to be on the Short List along with a few others.

This is probably the place to insert one of my "I can just shut up now cuz this says it all" posts.

This from June of 2006, shortly after the old and now discarded 1KT system went into effect restricting posting in certain threads, and a newer member was concerned about the consequences of the new policy...

This reply from Bemac, our newbie basher du jour... it should be read in it's entirety, as the Quote feature shortened it.
I could easily post pages of similar sentiments from others along with the very real and helpful Technique enhancing posts that have been and still are being salted among these threads for those willing to do a little Panning; Bemac's most current project being a simple case in point among several others...

So. Trade your own charts and Draw your own conclusions concerning these arrogant, cocky, newbie bashing fun seekers, but I categorically Reject and Refute the Premise of the Charge as it pertains to Bemac in particular and by extension, this whole "class" of predatory and unhelpful Senior Traders in general. That's my Answer and I'm stickin to it.

BTW, this was the short version.

By the way I'm going to retry them now again as my trading is almost totally automated now. Now when I have something simple that works, I'll optimize with my personal lisp dialect Crazy stuff unless you understand it - very interesting and relevatn stuff if you do. Read for example Kozas books if you don't understand why, he for example describes how genetic algos evolve circuit boards in one of his books

Here is interesting stuff if someone is really interested in this http://www.genetic-programming.com/

The main point with my post really was that people really shouldn't underestimate the power of simple methods - read the book with very stupid name "The ultimate trading guide" written by Futures Truth magazine guys and see what they say about the best performing trading systems that they track on page 185. Remember that these guys have NDA's with trading system developers and they have full data on how the systems they track work. (I don't copy the section here because it's copyrighted and people should buy that book anyway)

The following is not shown to brag - below is a backtesting profit curve [with linear exposure so no r% or any compounding] for 20 years of EURUSD (all majors look almost exactly the same) of the system[s] I use and the entries of some of the system inside it are described at the post - the system itself is a combination of multiple quite simple systems. I really use 20/2 bb and basic 4 week donchian breakouts as entry points in my live trading and they work great. I have been trading this live for about a month now and resutls are exactly as I expected (account is up about 15%).

Hmm.. I feel like I'm ranting.. I sometimes do that..

Btw back at you, I'm sure you do realize my "So-So" reference to your background was about as tongue in cheek as it's possible to get.

The fact that any one person can seemingly Roam at will thru the Halls of such Esoteric Stuff just leaves me breathless. And then when you use the word "simple" in there, I just get it over with and go ahead and fall out of my chair... ((Crashing sound as ak goes over. Again.))

I still maintain tho that your Real Brilliance Mikkom, is that you knew where to find the link to The Beast of Caerbannog. Seriously tho, I love the way you weave the Complex in with the Basic Grit of the Thing... sublime.

...and as for the Ranting, Rant on... I'll look up the words I don't understand and catch up eventually. At least I already know what "NDA", "20/2 bb", and "simple" mean. Heading over to the "D" section right now to brush up on that Donchian guy and how it relates to a 4 week period...

And BTW again... about the Brag and speaking for myself of course altho I'd not be surprised to find others who share this sentiment ... those who have earned Trust may Brag At Will... ar''d This Table anyway.

************

On another note, if those who frequent this thread aren't yet aware of it, there are some Fascinating Things going on across the the Road at ICCE. Bemac's Fib. Reverse Engineered (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=162886) thread.

There are alot of Odd looking folk coming and going at all hours, and you can see strange Lights and Flashes coming from behind the shades long into the night, not to mention peculiar Noises of unknown origin. Once after too many Guinnessi, Jaywalker dared me to go Peek thru the window which I of course did. What I saw was... well I can't quite say but the word "Inspiring" comes to mind.

I'm keeping my ear to the Door and trying to stay out from Underfoot for the time being while The Thing is under construction by those more skilled in the Weird Arts. One must really Peek for Oneself...

Very interesting breakout (something I would call "high possibility" to run north) possibly happening in GBPUSD if daily candle closes above about ~1.495, price is breaking a cluster of different things I use (pic related). Would definitely look this if I wouldn't already be quite heavily in (the trades are by my little EA, it feels good to be automated).

Working on a bit more "narration" to go with this chart, but will post it anyway and then work on any additional blather that emerges, so expect some edit notes over the next little while. I keep getting all distracted here with Life Stuff... Phones, Phaxes, and Philanthropy. It's all too much. I sort liked Hyundai's until I had to work on them...

Anyway, the Premise for now is that the white shaded boxes are periods of Ranging at the 8hr level. That's sort of an arbitrary TF as I wanted more detail than a Daily but not too much like a 4hr. Think of it as a session length but the candle periods do NOT correlate to trading sessions.

Anyway, shaded white boxes are Price Congestion Zones (PCZ) formed a'rd any number of things for many reasons. Aqua Lines are just some obvious S/R levels defined by wick highs or lows. Gold shaded bar is the 3050/3100 S/R zone that dissects what I see as the Line in the sand here between Worlds.

The Lower World has only been partially explored so far...

BTW... in Volatile Times, a Line Style chart in the same TF is a good companion to Confirm, Challenge, or Refute any Notion that is looking for a Home in your Head. You can quickly toggle over to it on any TF on your MT4 charts with Alt+3 for Lines and Alt+2 for candlesticks.

What I'm looking at here are the Pink shaded boxes that sort of highlight what I'm calling Transition Zones or TZ's. Even on this longer TF, they tend to be explosive and decisive, having the Effect of driving price Out of one PCZ and leaving it another.

Looking for any PA or other factors that accompanied and/or precipitated those moves on smaller TF's is part of this project. I always watch for any "Stairstep" action and am trying to learn it's nuances with respect to Time and Distance.

I can't make a case yet, but I'm also looking at the 2 shaded circles on the Slow_K at bottom, and pondering about the potential for a fast break North, in spite of my shift back to a somewhat Bearish bias based on the hammering the Lower S/R zone (Gold bar) is taking on the Daily...

This may wind up going Nowhere or Somewhere but it is Fun.

Update 1: Price in mid-asia followed a classic break down, then a turn up to the DP ((3192)) and then collapsed 100 pips from this post and nearly penetrated the gold bar making pre Fo/Lo Low of 3066 and a weak bounce so far back to the 31oo figure.

Well, how about you, me and Christopher Columbus go and explore? It's been said there is treasure to be found

And don't work on Hyundai cars mate. The Fiparam (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rW4ygNCULjo) from our great leader, Kim Jong-Il is much easier to work on.

Update 1: Price in mid-asia followed a classic break down, then a turn up to the DP ((3192)) and then collapsed 100 pips from this post and nearly penetrated the gold bar making pre Fo/Lo Low of 3066 and a weak bounce so far back to the 31oo figure.

With an out of the gate 100 pip drop, there could easily be a TZ in the making. Even another 100 pips during Fo/Lo or Ny on Friday would give a 200 pip drop and take us well below the lower gold bar edge of 3050 and down to the 30xx level.

Arbitrary I know... Still a Close anywhere down there would shake everyone up long or short and we'd have the "mother of all gaps" posts to deal with all weekend.

Getting funner and funner...

ADD: new 2 hr candle dropped 30 pips 5 minutes into the open at 1am CST... Yowzaa!

Profitable and profitabler

Relentless move down thru S/R zone at 3100/3050...

I would say that by the time the dust clears from this move, there'll be another pink box marking a transition zone thru the gold s/r bar on the Daily and that empty space under 30xx will start sprouting candles again...

Options expiration and Trichet speech marking the end of this week. Here's a link to a good calendar for key Expirations dates that may be helpful--> Options Expiration Calendar (http://www.cboe.com/AboutCBOE/xcal2009.pdf)

S3 seems almost a given at this point... but the clock is running and NY action will probably determine the depth of the move today...

I'm already dreading the endless pages of gap posts sure to come...

But not on this thread.

And there we have it... almost.

Daily with 4 hrs to the (Weekly) Close and 3020ish is holding well atm. Not as Decisive as I would have liked...

All previously posted S/R zones that have been holding price over various durations of time ranging from days to weeks have been busted or nearly so... but Price has NOT cleared this zone yet, and so things remain murky as far as future direction goes.

Shorts have downward Mom and overall (downtrend) in their favor. Longs have a strong but uncleared test of Support in their corner. And so on and so on...

The reason I bolded the portion above is that these things are pretty subjective as to exact placement and depth of the zone. Mine has been an easy to manage 50 pips wide zone from 3100/3050. Mentally I know that it might be 3020/3080 or even 3000/3100. If you only count the Weekly Open and Close values, it could easily cover 2900/3100...

So there are zones and there are Zones. Price will tell us where They Really Are soon enough. Sort of...

Here's the thing... and I'll just speak for myself. I read my own Posted Crap long enough and pretty soon it don't stink. Then I start believing it. Then I get a PM from a Grateful Newbie and it Turns into Gospel.

Then I trade it and get the Snot knocked out of me, and the Grateful Newbie is writing my username on public restroom walls while looking for me along with 3 of his Friends...

Just like some gloriously successful Post Shorts Euphoria (PSE) to set you up for getting Blindsided by The Market (BSTM)...

So, keep the Walls manned, stay Sharp, stay Nimble, and wait for the "All Clear" from The Market that the tide has Shifted or not. The Game remains in place.

There, I condensed your post for you.

My view of the weekly chart backs you up:

Momentum appears to be down, but the potential remains to play the triangle game (shown in yellow). We could fit about 3 or 4 candles in there.

Sitting on the 38.2 all-time fib (like sitting on the fence rail), it's time for the market to cogitate a little (what else to do at the end of a Friday?).

I see the MA's on my chart coming closer together, which we don't see happen too often on the weekly (last cross was 6 years ago).

I know which way I'm leaning, but I won't let the wind blow me over...there goes someone's hat.....