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  • #10,861
  • Apr 17, 2009 2:57am Apr 17, 2009 2:57am
One to look out for 10023

S+R
78Fib
000
4hr TF
BB (bucket bottom)

100 will also offer some resistance so I'll have to watch PA as and when we get there.
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  • #10,862
  • Apr 17, 2009 3:39am Apr 17, 2009 3:39am
Quoting Tori
The gbpusd looks like a head and shoulders on the one hour chart. Does anyone think that will influence.
Nice spot. I'm crap at seeing these unless someone points them out.

It has to help the chances of a run down to the 147/146 area.
  • #10,863
  • Apr 17, 2009 4:42am Apr 17, 2009 4:42am
Hi Billy,

thanks a lot for this thread, quick question you might be able to answer.

Do you see any good way to trade those levels without sitting in front of your screen when they're touched? That stuff works great for me when I can watch the market but I don't want to do that all the time and I didn't figure out how to do this in a more passive way with limit-orders etc. It seems to be important how those levels are approached etc...it works for me when I watch the markets but for a while I tried to use limit-orders to enter, with an OCO SL of 40 pips and a target of 80 pips for example but this didn't do better than breakeven after some trades...

Any suggestions/ideas/comments on this?

Thank you,

Marco
  • #10,864
  • Apr 17, 2009 4:46am Apr 17, 2009 4:46am
Quoting Marco
Hi Billy,

thanks a lot for this thread, quick question you might be able to answer.

Do you see any good way to trade those levels without sitting in front of your screen when they're touched? That stuff works great for me when I can watch the market but I don't want to do that all the time and I didn't figure out how to do this in a more passive way with limit-orders etc. It seems to be important how those levels are approached etc...it works for me when I watch the markets but for a while I tried to use limit-orders to enter, with an OCO...
I have been wondering the same thing, however I would be using the 4 hour chart only, so no need to watch price every minute, and using a mobile(cell) phone at work to trade from, as well as alert fx to lert me of approaches of key S/R. I think this should be enough, maybe a trailing stop also?
Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
  • #10,865
  • Apr 17, 2009 4:49am Apr 17, 2009 4:49am
Quoting Tori
The gbpusd looks like a head and shoulders on the one hour chart. Does anyone think that will influence.
If I'm seeing what you're seeing neckline was broken somewhere in the 1.4848 area.

That was also a great resistance point when price originally retraced from 1.4787.....

textbook move. It comes up and uses the bottom on the last wave, not the ones before it, as resistance to sell.

Going to need a smaller timeframe to see it, but its pretty clear. 101 stuff, new traders (but not you Tori )

Some guy told me that this strategy gets killed in heavily trending markets. There's your example of why it the BEST in trending markets .
  • #10,866
  • Apr 17, 2009 5:17am Apr 17, 2009 5:17am
Hi BRV. How much time needs to play out before head and shoulders no longer continues to influence. Also would not jump into aussie any time soon as we have lots of polies talking up issues with China and our commodities over here. I dont think this will be a clean currency to trade till things settle down. That also seems to influence nzd so I will not touch that even though it is in place for a turn. Just my opinion
  • #10,867
  • Apr 17, 2009 5:19am Apr 17, 2009 5:19am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
This one is a little different; a pattern we see happen a lot.

Its kind of like the bottom of the bucket, for now we'll just call it a "spike base". It happens when price makes a huge spike, when the spike gets taken out in the opposite direction, the bottom of the original consolidation area is used as a fade, in this case, its 1.1780.

I talked about briefly in a couple examples for the [url="http://www.nobrainertrades.com/2009/04/dissecting-eurusd.html"]last...
Someone asked and I fixed it but the retracement level on here was supposed to be .764. All fixed now. Gotta stop planning trades drunk. I tell you it'll get me one day.
  • #10,868
  • Apr 17, 2009 5:22am Apr 17, 2009 5:22am
Quoting Tori
Hi BRV. How much time needs to play out before head and shoulders no longer continues to influence. Also would not jump into aussie any time soon as we have lots of polies talking up issues with China and our commodities over here. I dont think this will be a clean currency to trade till things settle down. That also seems to influence nzd so I will not touch that even though it is in place for a turn. Just my opinion
Hi, hard for me to answer because I usually only start to notice them when other people point them out! Theyre just not something I look at too regularly. If anything just look for as much symmetry as possible, where the fall is equal to the incline, would be my recommendation. Like anything else, sometimes they will work, othertimes they wont, but usually when you have key areas getting taken out like we're seeing tonight its a good sign. Hope this helps?
  • #10,869
  • Apr 17, 2009 5:27am Apr 17, 2009 5:27am
Quoting Marco
Hi Billy,

thanks a lot for this thread, quick question you might be able to answer.

Do you see any good way to trade those levels without sitting in front of your screen when they're touched? That stuff works great for me when I can watch the market but I don't want to do that all the time and I didn't figure out how to do this in a more passive way with limit-orders etc. It seems to be important how those levels are approached etc...it works for me when I watch the markets but for a while I tried to use limit-orders to enter, with an OCO SL...
I mean usually once a day something will get hit, and yes I've used limit orders from time to time. I just set price alerts, mainly, observe whats going on, and make my judgements from there pretty much. Because once you put on the trade you're pretty much free to walk away. That's the easy part and where you save your time.

I think if more people just walked away after they put on the trade not so many would lose money in this business.
  • #10,870
  • Apr 17, 2009 5:30am Apr 17, 2009 5:30am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Someone asked and I fixed it but the retracement level on here was supposed to be .764. All fixed now. Gotta stop planning trades drunk. I tell you it'll get me one day.
I use 78.6% instead of 76.4% and it seems to work out fine, this level is not so significant as 38.2 and 61.8 anyway so I don't think it matters that much.

There is divided opinion on the net if you search.
  • #10,871
  • Apr 17, 2009 5:33am Apr 17, 2009 5:33am
Quoting RedCabbage
I use 78.6% instead of 76.4% and it seems to work out fine, this level is not so significant as 38.2 and 61.8 anyway so I don't think it matters that much.

There is divided opinion on the net if you search.
Good point.
  • #10,872
  • Apr 17, 2009 5:40am Apr 17, 2009 5:40am
Hi Billy

Its good to have you back.

Thanks for the charts. I had the same level for the CHF.

Supa
C
Boxing clever since 76.
  • #10,873
  • Apr 17, 2009 5:40am Apr 17, 2009 5:40am
I am posting this gbp chart to show my interpretation of head and shoulders and what I think. When I see the second shoulder at the line looking to drop I would just go in because it usually falls a long way. As you can see it fell all the way to 744 area which has action across the chart. No surprise that I am in there now. 841 could be a bit of a stopper but I would exit there if necessary, and then buy in again if it goes over. Just my thoughts. But this is a really good pattern. Almost symetrical.
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  • #10,874
  • Apr 17, 2009 6:06am Apr 17, 2009 6:06am
Hi all

i think 1.1660 will also be a good entry for short. What you guys think?
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  • #10,875
  • Apr 17, 2009 6:07am Apr 17, 2009 6:07am
Quoting Tori
I am posting this gbp chart to show my interpretation of head and shoulders and what I think. When I see the second shoulder at the line looking to drop I would just go in because it usually falls a long way. As you can see it fell all the way to 744 area which has action across the chart. No surprise that I am in there now. 841 could be a bit of a stopper but I would exit there if necessary, and then buy in again if it goes over. Just my thoughts. But this is a really good pattern. Almost symetrical.
Attachment
As it goes with this HH pattern its just Lower Low, and Lower High
  • #10,876
  • Apr 17, 2009 6:10am Apr 17, 2009 6:10am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
I mean usually once a day something will get hit, and yes I've used limit orders from time to time. I just set price alerts, mainly, observe whats going on, and make my judgements from there pretty much. Because once you put on the trade you're pretty much free to walk away. That's the easy part and where you save your time.

I think if more people just walked away after they put on the trade not so many would lose money in this business.
Hmm well then you just have pre-defined SL and Target for the position and leave it alone?

Maybe you're right that it's better to walk away...on one side I noticed that very often I can at least move my stop to breakeven after a small bounce...which might save me from taking a loss. On the other side often I just would have to suffer a small drawdown after the first bounce off a level back to my entry and then it takes off.

Can you give some more details about how to manage the trade once it's on when you walk away? I tried different things like look for 2-3 times the inital risk and leave the stop where it is...or use an automated trailing-stop (wasn't that good). Also did you ever figure out a good number of pips you'd use for your SL in different market-conditions like ATR values or something, do you even set a fixed SL or is it more of a mental SL?

I've read the whole thread plus all stuff on your website so I already got that, just not sure how to do it without watching the market.

Thank you,

Marco
  • #10,877
  • Apr 17, 2009 6:10am Apr 17, 2009 6:10am
Quoting bbartha
Hi all

i think 1.1660 will also be a good entry for short. What you guys think?
I make the level 11680 but I still wouldn't stand in front of this one.

Just for you cliffy!
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  • #10,878
  • Apr 17, 2009 6:13am Apr 17, 2009 6:13am
One of my favorite short entries in a possible head-shoulders is: after a range of approx. 10-20 bars, with some candle lows sitting on one line, then one candle closes below the line... this is usually the "point of no return" ... thought I'd share this with you as it's simple and reliable for shorts.
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forget about tomorrow, just steal away into the night
  • #10,879
  • Apr 17, 2009 6:51am Apr 17, 2009 6:51am
Quoting bbartha
Hi all

i think 1.1660 will also be a good entry for short. What you guys think?
Price action is looking more favourable now maybe a pinbar could result from this hour? We are also almost upon the GMT 4hr candle close which could help.

However this pair has paused twice already today only to blow on through ressistance.

EDIT : there's the 1hr PB. J16 thread will be getting excited!
  • #10,880
  • Apr 17, 2009 7:19am Apr 17, 2009 7:19am
Quoting spekitox
One of my favorite short entries in a possible head-shoulders is: after a range of approx. 10-20 bars, with some candle lows sitting on one line, then one candle closes below the line... this is usually the "point of no return" ... thought I'd share this with you as it's simple and reliable for shorts.
Agreed-that IS a good one I use it often.
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