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  • #2,021
  • Apr 16, 2009 7:54am Apr 16, 2009 7:54am
Just finished a cuppa ..back to work in a moment, but here's a chart of some not quite bars..
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  • #2,022
  • Apr 16, 2009 11:24am Apr 16, 2009 11:24am
Quoting FxPippy
Just finished a cuppa ..back to work in a moment, but here's a chart of some not quite bars..
BEOB's don't necessarily have to engulf the upper wick. BUOB's don't have to engulf the lower wick. What you said was "almost" a BEOB, actually was a vaild BEOB. Keep in mind PA in the wrong place tells you nothing. The real estate motto to follow: Location, Location, Location.

In some posts this week I have heard people throw out the term hammer, and shooting star, when all the criteria were not met (Often the most important criteria!). Let us not forgot Bond and his experience with the meat and two potatoes. Things are not always as good as they seem.
Bang.
  • #2,023
  • Apr 16, 2009 1:00pm Apr 16, 2009 1:00pm
Hi everyone,

Couple of newbie ques:

  1. What pairs should I look at. 8, 10+ or as a newbie just the major crosses?
  2. How long do you spend after NY close looking @ graphs, adjusting orders etc
  3. On a "average" month how many trades would you place (I know you are going to say...all depends on PA setup - but just want an idea of no. trades achieved on a Daily timeframe)

Coming from a lower timeframe...I think I'm getting itchy fingers :S

Thanks

  • #2,024
  • Edited 1:39pm Apr 16, 2009 1:37pm | Edited 1:39pm
AminAS:-(The real estate motto to follow: Location, Location, Location.)
Absolutely, as BabaG said, the quiz wasn't about location, but about 'almost bars', PASR has to be at a 1st class area to take a trade with other confluence as well (SH, SL, fib, MA, BOSS) and not to forget, not trading straight into support or resitance key levels.

Re definitions of BEOB and BUOB, I had always thought that the 2nd bar has to engulf the previous bar and e.g. with a BUOB the close is higher than the open and about 2/3's up from the low of the bar. Reverse of what I have just said for a BEOB.

I stand corrected, ...any other comments welcome?
  • #2,025
  • Apr 16, 2009 2:38pm Apr 16, 2009 2:38pm
Quoting AminAS
BEOB's don't necessarily have to engulf the upper wick. BUOB's don't have to engulf the lower wick. What you said was "almost" a BEOB, actually was a vaild BEOB. Keep in mind PA in the wrong place tells you nothing. The real estate motto to follow: Location, Location, Location.

In some posts this week I have heard people throw out the term hammer, and shooting star, when all the criteria were not met (Often the most important criteria!). Let us not forgot Bond and his experience with the meat and two potatoes. Things are not always as good as...
Amin, you did brilliant remembering my mate Bond but absolutely horrible on candle recognition!

BEOB - Bearish OUTSIDE Bar - this bar has to be completely OUTSIDE the previous bar meaning the high has to be higher and the low has to be lower.

BUOB - Bullish OUTSIDE Bar - this bar has to be completely OUTSIDE the previous bar meaning the high has to be higher and the low has to be lower.

Back to J16 for you young man and don't come back until you KNOW your candles!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #2,026
  • Apr 16, 2009 3:13pm Apr 16, 2009 3:13pm
Good evening Strat & team

If today's candle makes a doji (1 hour until close), might it indicate an ending to the recent down trend (either for a consolidation period, or even a reversal to test the 20ma)? I entered this on the break of my SR line @89.90 immediately after the BEOB (beneath my green arrow in April 4th) see chart.

My initial target may have been a little optimistic, I am wondering if I should be taking some more profit off at my next S/R level (88 ish), or if I should stop stressing, particularly if today's close is at or below yesterdays. After all the express train may only be slowing down through a station rather than screeching its breaks before the turntable.


best

Paul
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  • #2,027
  • Apr 16, 2009 3:32pm Apr 16, 2009 3:32pm
Quoting paddyham
Hi everyone,

Couple of newbie ques:

  1. What pairs should I look at. 8, 10+ or as a newbie just the major crosses?
  2. How long do you spend after NY close looking @ graphs, adjusting orders etc
  3. On a "average" month how many trades would you place (I know you are going to say...all depends on PA setup - but just want an idea of no. trades achieved on a Daily timeframe)

Coming from a lower timeframe...I think I'm getting itchy fingers :S

Thanks

Pairs? - I look at as many as I can get my eyes on, big ones, little ones, plastic ones (but never flat ones), sorry what were you talking about again, my mind wandered off?

Oh yes, right!

How many charts to follow? This is very personal and comes down to many things, time, circumstances, account balance, level of trading but not least, your personal vibrations and harmonics (don't laugh, it IS true).

The beauty about trading the Daily is that it gives you a life. You can do whatever you want during the day, a job, golf, tennis, boating, sleeping, dreaming, anything. All you need is a couple of minutes on each chart after 5pm EST when NY closes. How long you spend reviewing each chart is entirely up to you. Some can make a decision with just a quick glance while others like to make each review an "event"

There are some that say specialise on one pair and one pair only, but while I understand the reason for that, and it has merit, WE need to see as much PASR as we can get our hands on to stay "in tune".

Since I added pizza man's CADJPY chart, I now have 18 pairs that I follow - BUT I don't follow them all for trading purposes. Some I am using for further development of my Momentum and Cycle methods and others for further development of my Volume Analysis.

So, the bottom line is, follow however many charts you are "comfortable" with and only you know what YOUR comfort level is. Just make sure those pairs have HIGH VOLUME & LIQUIDITY and not some exotic pairs like USD/Krona etc., (Nicola, are you listening?).

""On a "average" month how many trades would you place (I know you are going to say...all depends on PA setup - but just want an idea of no. trades achieved on a Daily timeframe)""

This really is impossible to answer because it is 100% dependent on the markets and PASR. Each day is different from the previous day and so on.
Instead of worrying about the number of trades to take, you should be more concerned with the QUALITY of trades. I keep saying, and I will say it again, QUALITY before QUANTITY.

AJHill and Bloom are trading EXACTLY what the market is giving them - if she gives you nothing, you trade NOTHING. If she gives you something and you don't recognise it, you still trade NOTHING. I can tell you from experience, that when a trade isn't there, and you start looking for a trade because you have an "itchy" trigger finger, then you can make anything look like a trade - and when that happens - it is a LOSING trade.

Remember the # 1 Rule in Trading - CAPITAL PRESERVATION.

This week, so far, has been a dull, boring week for trading the Daily - Why? Because there were no decent, low risk PASR set ups. Where there any trades to take? Yes, but VERY RISKY and not for anyone learning on this thread.

Once you have taken a trade that gives you pips in 4 figures, you will NEVER, EVER, worry about the number of trades you are doing in any given period.

Waiting for the safe, low risk trades are what will take you from where you are now to the next level, and the level after that and so on. Trading with an "itchy" trading finger will take you to your lowest level - BUST!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #2,028
  • Apr 16, 2009 4:18pm Apr 16, 2009 4:18pm
Quoting PaulKing
Good evening Strat & team

If today's candle makes a doji (1 hour until close), might it indicate an ending to the recent down trend (either for a consolidation period, or even a reversal to test the 20ma)? I entered this on the break of my SR line @89.90 immediately after the BEOB (beneath my green arrow in April 4th) see chart.

My initial target may have been a little optimistic, I am wondering if I should be taking some more profit off at my next S/R level (88 ish), or if I should stop stressing, particularly if today's close is at or below...
Thanks for this post, Paul, and please don't take this personally because it applies to all in our group.

We should never enter any trade without FIRST KNOWING:

WHERE TO TAKE PROFITS

This is just as bad as those who ignore RISK and forget about LOSING and never think about SL placement.

Always remember we need to REWARD ourselves for trading - we do this with PROFITS - it is the very best medicine for our psychology. There is no better feeling (well there is, but that's for another time!), than taking PROFIT from the market and putting it in your account - even if it goes another 150 pips after that - you STILL have PROFIT in your account.

Bloom, and I'm sure many others, are struggling with this also. Until you gain the experience to do different, Here is what I recommend, and I'll use Paul's trade as an example:

Trade 3 contracts (adjust $/pip if necessary to remain within your account %)

Take PROFIT on 1 contract at the 1st support -

Now, depending on your risk aversion, either place your SL at BE on the 2 remaining contracts or trail above the previous high.

Take PROFIT on 2nd contract at next support and bring 3rd contract SL above previous high.

On 3rd contract (with 2 contracts already with PROFIT taken), stay in UNTIL a PASR REVERSAL set up.

If this is not to your liking, you can still do 3 contracts but take PROFIT at each 50 pip level which will give you:

1st Contract 50 pips
2nd Contract 100 pips
3rd Contract 150 pips
TOTAL 300 pips

Whichever way you do it, ALWAYS take PROFIT from the market. Forget about thinking it may go another 150 pips - as soon as you do that, your emotions kick in BIG TIME and you are a TRAIN WRECK waiting to happen. Be satisfied with what YOU got from the market. As long as you are CONSISTENT in trading, your pip haul will increase but it will take time, lots of it.

Paul - did you read Blackeagle's post # 2009? Did you understand it? That should tell you something.

Always remember Dr. Joe - it keeps on going down until it stops going down!

You only need to know when it has STOPPED going down - you don't need to worry about when will it end or where will it end - it ENDS when it ENDS!

A very risky entry as 0.8990 was ABOVE WEEKLY and MAJOR SUPPORT at 0.8950 and NO PA for entry - As I have told others, EURGBP is in a bearish Momentum Cycle so sell all rallies so you have done OK - this time - but probably not next time IF you keep taking these HIGH RISK set ups

You are 164 pips in profit - are you going to lock any of this in or let The Queen take it back?
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #2,029
  • Apr 16, 2009 4:44pm Apr 16, 2009 4:44pm
A lot of the pairs went sideways today, hopefully storing some energy for the next move.
My favourite currency pair is GBPJPY but I may have to make GBPCHF my second favourite ...
Price broke the BOSS 20, came down retested and found support off it. Cycles and momentum are all up. We may drop a bit more before up but without some other price action a break of yesterdays big belt bar gets me in long for the next leg.
Sterling is pretty strong against everything and Swissie having a bit of a relapse so all looks good.
Nicola
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  • #2,030
  • Apr 16, 2009 4:50pm Apr 16, 2009 4:50pm
Srat,
I have spent 18 months giving the Queen back profits I didn't take. I stopped trading 4 weks ago to absorb this thread and j16. I am ready for "The Path Of Learning", if I may.
  • #2,031
  • Apr 16, 2009 5:03pm Apr 16, 2009 5:03pm
Gold finally had some love for short sellers today.
We are south of the BOSS and big BOSS MA's and a break of the 852 level puts us south of the monthly 20ema and all of the MA's
NOT a trade today but one to watch as everything seems to be saying down to me.
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  • #2,032
  • Apr 16, 2009 5:09pm Apr 16, 2009 5:09pm
I would not sell into the BOSS 20ema but this does look like it has been very squeezed and price action is suggesting a drop. Another one to watch for a break.
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  • #2,033
  • Apr 16, 2009 5:43pm Apr 16, 2009 5:43pm
I am wondering on your thoughts of a short on the Eur/GBP
My thoughts on the trade are that it has broken below a trend line I have drawn on my charts and a sp level. it is below the boss 20ma there is an inside bar on the daily chart. and the daiy 20 and 50 ma's are golden crossing.
Also cable has closed above the boss 20 ma after testing it today hopefully showing some sterling strength. I would enter on a break of the low
Any thoughts guys cheers
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  • #2,034
  • Edited 6:32pm Apr 16, 2009 6:20pm | Edited 6:32pm
Quoting Baba G

We could do a "close but no banana" price bar game.....were we go back and find the best "close but no banana bar".

All you do is take a screen shoot of a highlighted bar and say what is "nearly" is.....what u tinks?
Here is my close but no banana chart.

Attached Image


Ok the most current bar, is a hammer or pin bar look a like. It's tail does not protrude past price. The other bar in that rectangle is also not an accurate hammer/pin, because, it has too long of a wick on the upper end, price is too close to the middle of the bar. If you look back about 7 bars past the rectangle there is a shooting star that looks decent to me? Anyone else think so or is it another look alike? I would not have traded it though, cause "it keeps going up till .....".
  • #2,035
  • Apr 16, 2009 7:13pm Apr 16, 2009 7:13pm
This pair looks really interesting at the moment.

Attached Image


Several things are hinting at going down. Double top, broken trendline and now appears to be using it as resistance. Last candle closed lower than the close of the previous swing low. The candle is sitting on the 20 ma, need a strong close below this. No price action for entry, I will definitely be keeping my eyes on this one though. Price bounced close to the same levels that it did last time before it went into a down trend, history may be repeating itself? BOSS 50 is down, BOSS 20 and the 50 are up, the 20 appears to be flattening. Still need a good close below the 20 and price action to show the way.
  • #2,036
  • Apr 16, 2009 7:15pm Apr 16, 2009 7:15pm
Quoting elitejets
A lot of the pairs went sideways today, hopefully storing some energy for the next move.
My favourite currency pair is GBPJPY but I may have to make GBPCHF my second favourite ...
Price broke the BOSS 20, came down retested and found support off it. Cycles and momentum are all up. We may drop a bit more before up but without some other price action a break of yesterdays big belt bar gets me in long for the next leg.
Sterling is pretty strong against everything and Swissie having a bit of a relapse so all looks good.
Nicola
Good analysis, Nicola

As with GBPUSD, just be aware the 150 is directly overhead and may cause a bit of a wobble unless this profit taking IS the wobble
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #2,037
  • Apr 16, 2009 7:17pm Apr 16, 2009 7:17pm
Quoting shoestring
Srat,
I have spent 18 months giving the Queen back profits I didn't take. I stopped trading 4 weks ago to absorb this thread and j16. I am ready for "The Path Of Learning", if I may.
Yes, you may. Please PM rogueforex with your details so that he can register you on The Path of Learning.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #2,038
  • Apr 16, 2009 7:18pm Apr 16, 2009 7:18pm
Quoting elitejets
Gold finally had some love for short sellers today.
We are south of the BOSS and big BOSS MA's and a break of the 852 level puts us south of the monthly 20ema and all of the MA's
NOT a trade today but one to watch as everything seems to be saying down to me.
Agree, plus it's just broke out of that big triangle
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #2,039
  • Apr 16, 2009 7:24pm Apr 16, 2009 7:24pm
Quoting haircut
I am wondering on your thoughts of a short on the Eur/GBP
My thoughts on the trade are that it has broken below a trend line I have drawn on my charts and a sp level. it is below the boss 20ma there is an inside bar on the daily chart. and the daiy 20 and 50 ma's are golden crossing.
Also cable has closed above the boss 20 ma after testing it today hopefully showing some sterling strength. I would enter on a break of the low
Any thoughts guys cheers
The only things putting me off this is:

Support at 0.8735
Short term cycles have bottomed
Long term cycles have bottomed

However, bearish momentum is still accelerating
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #2,040
  • Apr 16, 2009 7:39pm Apr 16, 2009 7:39pm
Quoting elitejets
I would not sell into the BOSS 20ema but this does look like it has been very squeezed and price action is suggesting a drop. Another one to watch for a break.
But look at all those horrible wicks and tails - ugh!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
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