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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #19,441
  • Apr 15, 2009 6:12pm Apr 15, 2009 6:12pm
Nicely exited WG....only 2 pips off the current highs!
What was your basis for exiting? I don't see this price area linking directly to any of your fib extensions as possible resistance, so interested to know what caught your eye.

Quoting welshguy2000
Watching the way this reacted I have closed this position.

CLOSED @ 1.5034. ( + 115 pips)

I was expecting a slow rise - will use the 1H entry to re-enter if the opportunity arises. I will be posing the video review later today.

Cheers WG
  • #19,442
  • Apr 15, 2009 8:02pm Apr 15, 2009 8:02pm
Figure out how much $ you are prepared to lose, let's say a 100$, and your stop loss was 50 pip. That is basically, spread not included, 2 minilots. On the 4 hrs, I'd set one tp at 25 pips and if it was hit I would change my sl from 50 pips to 25. Worst case scenerio, I'd break even. The second tp I would see where the next resistance area would be and watch the price action around there to see if I would take profit or not. (Note the 2nd take profit area would have to be around 55+ so my R:R would be close to 1.) This is just the way, I do it and it may change once I get more experience. Right now, I'm still not risking 1% of my capitol. I want to get a lot of experience before I risk more. It is not possible, at least for me, to be rich in 1 yr, however it is completely possible for me to lose everything in a year. So I'm taking my time.

Quoting jinsen
hi more,

Another question. For this 4hr macd, do you make your every trade to
a fixed risk percentage. What i mant is that sometimes the risk is only 30 pips. Maybe even 20pips. Do you still fixed for the same risk percentage for every trade?

Or it is best to trade on pips to pips.

reg
jin
  • #19,443
  • Edited 9:37pm Apr 15, 2009 9:09pm | Edited 9:37pm
Quoting welshguy2000
Morning all,

Reasons for this trade are as follows:

2) Next 1H candle formed a large bullish engulfing candle which has engulfed the last 16 candles.

As always, any questions please ask.

Cheers WG
After the engulfing candle on the 1 hr mentioned above, there was a spinner, how did you know that the trend would continue upward ? Did the spinner cast some doubt on the continuation of the trend for you ?
  • #19,444
  • Apr 16, 2009 2:23am Apr 16, 2009 2:23am
Hello guys...

I made my entry @ vertical aqua line here.

Trade details:-
SELL @ 1.3185
SL @ 1.3235 (50pips risk = somewhere @ 21EMA)
No TP decided...I will use Trailing Stops Strategy for this one.

Reasons for SHORT:-
1) Basic rules: Price < 8 < 21 < 89 (downtrend market direction);
2) MACD (H4): TC signal; &
3) PA (H1): 3 Outside Down pattern in the previous 3 candles formation.

Price might rebounce @ 200sma (H4) but I think it will continue downside afterward (USD regain strength) at least until 1.30++ region because the Crude Oil stocks are filling up yesterday....

Any question/crtitic/opinion is most welcome.

HAVE A LOOK AND MAKE YOUR OWN THOUGHT
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.gif Size: 28 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eu2.gif Size: 25 KB
  • #19,445
  • Apr 16, 2009 2:55am Apr 16, 2009 2:55am
Quoting nasir.khan
I am new at this system i just get short on gbpusd at a round top But stopped out.

1- TP missed by 3 pips.
2- Did not checked the News.
From my experience, if you want to trade a round top, it has to be very round. Since it is a countertrend trade it is highly risky and not advised unless you have a lot of experience with them.

Philip wanted us to concerntrate on TC trades which means going with the trend but price may have paused for a while in order to build up more momentum to go on with the next leg.

For instance, there is a current TC on the EU right now. Price pulled back to the 21 EMA, gathered more momentum and then continued the trend. There is also support coming up.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.gif Size: 23 KB
  • #19,446
  • Apr 16, 2009 3:02am Apr 16, 2009 3:02am
Hello all...

As per D1 below, EU is approaching the 89sma and Support TL S1, which I still think that this two levels are still making a great support for this pair.

As per H4, the market retest 365ema again and if I am right, we might see EU break below 200sma but who knows? Only time can tell...

Immediate Resistance Levels:-
1) Price level 1.3200;
2) 21ema (H4); &
3) 89sma (H4)

Immediate Support Levels:-
1) 365ema (H4);
2) 200sma (H4); &
3) Price level 1.3100

HAVE A LOOK AND MAKE YOUR OWN THOUGHT
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.gif Size: 27 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eu2.gif Size: 28 KB
  • #19,447
  • Apr 16, 2009 3:15am Apr 16, 2009 3:15am
Took a short on AU based on the evening doji star.

Entry .7255
Exit .7205 Closed for 49.9 pips
S/L .7314
Attached Image
  • #19,448
  • Edited 5:16am Apr 16, 2009 4:38am | Edited 5:16am
Quoting xeneric
Just took a short on GU (which is countertrend). There is a double top and divergence on the macd.

S/L 1.4942
Entry 1.48797
closed half for 33 pips and got stopped out of 2nd half at break even.
Shorted GU earlier based on yesterday's analysis. Seems like I should have waited until today to short. Should have known that GU would want to test the high again and stop everyone out in the process first.

Entry 1.49721
Exit 1.48983 closed for 73.8 pips
S/L 1.50330
  • #19,449
  • Apr 16, 2009 6:42am Apr 16, 2009 6:42am
Morning all,

Right 1st of all i've uploaded the review of yesterdays TC trade on the GBP/USD:

Inserted Video


Please feel free to ask any questions.

Right onto today - This morning I went short on a TC (trend continuation) signal on the EUR/USD. Reasons for this trade are as follows:

1) Strong Bearish engulfing candle close on the 4H, which engulfed previous 3 candles.
2) Price action found resistance off the 21EMA on the 4H.
3) Failed to close about the 38.2% fib @ 1.3256
4) 1H closed under previous support @ 1.3188

Entry @ 1.3198
TP: 1.3135 (Just above 100% fib line)
Sl: 1.3397

Please have a look at the attached image. I will also be posting a video reviewing this trade later today so please subscribe to my youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/sionsmith to receive daily updates of the new uploads.

As always, any questions please ask.

Cheers WG
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur4h(16-04-09).gif Size: 25 KB
  • #19,450
  • Apr 16, 2009 6:51am Apr 16, 2009 6:51am
Quoting BenStevo
Nicely exited WG....only 2 pips off the current highs!
What was your basis for exiting? I don't see this price area linking directly to any of your fib extensions as possible resistance, so interested to know what caught your eye.
Ben,

There were a few reasons for this which I have hopefully outlined on my video:

Inserted Video


If not then ask away. It might be an idea to subscribe to my channel, that way you will receive email updates of when I add todays EUR trade.

Cheers WG
  • #19,451
  • Apr 16, 2009 6:53am Apr 16, 2009 6:53am
Quoting xeneric
After the engulfing candle on the 1 hr mentioned above, there was a spinner, how did you know that the trend would continue upward ? Did the spinner cast some doubt on the continuation of the trend for you ?
Xeneric, yes it did cast a little doubt - however if you went into the 5M chart (which you should not used to enter any position) it never made a lower low which is a key sign that this had upward force. I will say the same about the channel subscription.

Cheers WG
  • #19,452
  • Apr 16, 2009 8:30am Apr 16, 2009 8:30am
Quoting welshguy2000

Entry @ 1.3198
TP: 1.3135 (Just above 100% fib line)
Sl: 1.3397
Do you use such huge SL 200pips? R:R is very bad...
Why didnt you set SL above tail of previous candle and near 89SMA at 1.3280?
  • #19,453
  • Apr 16, 2009 5:31pm Apr 16, 2009 5:31pm
Quoting mxm
Do you use such huge SL 200pips? R:R is very bad...
Why didnt you set SL above tail of previous candle and near 89SMA at 1.3280?
Stops for me are something completely different than what most people use. I place a stop in the market only to protect my account from getting wiped out if something really bad were to happen.

I do not use stops as an indicator to whether I am right or wrong in a trade - candles will tell you this.

Do you have any more questions?
  • #19,454
  • Apr 16, 2009 7:44pm Apr 16, 2009 7:44pm
Quoting welshguy2000
Xeneric, yes it did cast a little doubt - however if you went into the 5M chart (which you should not used to enter any position) it never made a lower low which is a key sign that this had upward force. I will say the same about the channel subscription.

Cheers WG
Thanks for your reply, WG. Excellent video as usual.
  • #19,455
  • Apr 17, 2009 1:09am Apr 17, 2009 1:09am
Very nice head and shoulders going on on G/U at the moment. I'm in from 1.4883. SL = 1.4955. TP 1.4800, but overall target is larger at around 1.4400 level.

Nice divergence also showing on price. And 3 tests of 1.4938 resistance level.


Edit: Man, price plummeting...TP hit at 1.4800 while typing...didn't have time to adjust TP for my larger 1.4400 target, so I'm already out with smaller TP level.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Untitled.gif Size: 32 KB
  • #19,456
  • Apr 17, 2009 2:01am Apr 17, 2009 2:01am
Quoting BenStevo
Very nice head and shoulders going on on G/U at the moment. I'm in from 1.4883. SL = 1.4955. TP 1.4800, but overall target is larger at around 1.4400 level.

Nice divergence also showing on price. And 3 tests of 1.4938 resistance level.


Edit: Man, price plummeting...TP hit at 1.4800 while typing...didn't have time to adjust TP for my larger 1.4400 target, so I'm already out with smaller TP level.
I entered that trade too. Entered after it fell through trendline, went back to trendline, bounced off it and loitered around resistance for a while.


S/L 1.5068
Entry 1.4914

Still holding but may exit soon since it is Friday.
Attached Image
  • #19,457
  • Apr 17, 2009 2:08am Apr 17, 2009 2:08am
Hi all...

Ahead of the weekend...EU already had a clearer direction to the downside so far. Anyway...please be aware that the price still can get strong support levels from S1 TL and fib 23.6% as per D1 below.

If I am right, it will be very comfortable to SHORT this pair once it break below S1 and fib 23.6% sometime around next week. But who knows?...Market can its change direction at anytime for any reason.

Also, please take note that price is still rhythming nicely within the pink channel I made.

Immediate Resistance Levels:-
1) 200sma (H4);
2) 365ema (H4); &
3) Price level 1.3200

Immedidate Support Level:-
1) Price level 1.3000;
2) Sup TL S1; &
3) fib 23.6%

HAVE A LOOK AND MAKE YOUR OWN THOUGHT
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.gif Size: 26 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eu2.gif Size: 27 KB
  • #19,458
  • Apr 17, 2009 2:09am Apr 17, 2009 2:09am
Nice too see someone else in the trade. I'll be looking at re-entering short if I get the chance on H1...to me the Daily TF has given perfect signal for a bigger move. May be worth holding the trade if you're able, but this is just my analysis

Edit: If there is another TC on H4, this will form a 3rd little sister - just another thing to watch for

Quoting xeneric
I entered that trade too. Entered after it fell through trendline, went back to trendline, bounced off it and loitered around resistance for a while.


S/L 1.5068
Entry 1.4914

Still holding but may exit soon.
  • #19,459
  • Apr 17, 2009 2:44am Apr 17, 2009 2:44am
Quoting BenStevo
Nice too see someone else in the trade. I'll be looking at re-entering short if I get the chance on H1...to me the Daily TF has given perfect signal for a bigger move. May be worth holding the trade if you're able, but this is just my analysis

Edit: If there is another TC on H4, this will form a 3rd little sister - just another thing to watch for
Congratulations on your 83 pips and I hope that you will have an opportunity to re-enter.
  • #19,460
  • Apr 17, 2009 4:30am Apr 17, 2009 4:30am
Quoting xeneric
I entered that trade too. Entered after it fell through trendline, went back to trendline, bounced off it and loitered around resistance for a while.


S/L 1.5068
Entry 1.4914

Still holding but may exit soon since it is Friday.
Closed this trade at 1.4784 for 130 pips. Giving up and finished for the week. I hope u have good weekend.
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