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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #27,081
  • Apr 15, 2009 5:20pm Apr 15, 2009 5:20pm
Quoting Shermenator
Here is a trade I just entered...

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I have now moved my stop to break even...I will post my picture later on today
  • #27,082
  • Apr 15, 2009 5:22pm Apr 15, 2009 5:22pm
No James16 today. I'm sure he's attending some of the many Tea Parties in Texas today. lol
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #27,083
  • Apr 15, 2009 5:31pm Apr 15, 2009 5:31pm
Could I get some feedback concerning this possible trade opportunity. I see a Bearish Outside Bar forming here on the EUR/AUD daily chart. I think that some wait for a retrace before executing a trade on this set-up. I see some room to profit from a continuation down. I am looking for the most conservative entry idea and I think the retrace might be it. I am also aware of the 8100 area possibly being a thorn in my side as the weekly suggests. Thanks in advance.

K.I.S.S.
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  • #27,084
  • Apr 15, 2009 5:34pm Apr 15, 2009 5:34pm
I don't know why I'm so fascinated by this setup but I thought I'd post it to explain my thoughts. As a newbie, I'm sure you guys have some positive/negative comments about this so please feel free to comment.

What I see is a Proxy BUOB (today's high was 4 tics below yesterday's high). It was only 1 tic different on the FXPro feed. It nearly encompasses the previous 6 bars. This is what is impressive to me. Today's bar breaks the low of the previous 4 bars, then posts its highest close of 2009. So my head says take this trade long once we break through the 150 level.

However, I must also consider why this bar formed like it did. We had a holiday in the past week, which caused the smaller range bars. The JPY is stuck between 99-101, while the GBP is just now starting to show bullish signs.

What will happen? I have shown a few ideas that might occur. My guess is that it will break through 150/151, retest 149/150, and move higher. But I am guessing it won't give me a PA setup on the retrace on the daily timeframe (which is all I'm trading now)... So, I might end up missing this one. Nonetheless, I'll be watching it diligently

Good luck to those trading the E/J pin... Just not worth the risk for me. NZD/JPY pin looks better, but I'm already long XXX/JPY, so will not add on.

Josh
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  • #27,085
  • Apr 15, 2009 5:43pm Apr 15, 2009 5:43pm
Quoting KissFan
Could I get some feedback concerning this possible trade opportunity. I see a Bearish Outside Bar forming here on the EUR/AUD daily chart. I think that some wait for a retrace before executing a trade on this set-up. I see some room to profit from a continuation down. I am looking for the most conservative entry idea and I think the retrace might be it. I am also aware of the 8100 area possibly being a thorn in my side as the weekly suggests. Thanks in advance.

K.I.S.S.
I like it mate...I would probably keep my stop loss out of the range just incase they just tried to get the sell stops of the previous longs, and they might attempt at shaking of the new shorts of the correct direction. I am a bitt bearish in this pair but with caution so thats why I am standing aside myself. I want to see the market sell of hard so I know they are just not hitting stops and that sentiment is clear and then I want to see a nice revisit at that point and I will sell the crap out of it lol..

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  • #27,086
  • Apr 15, 2009 5:59pm Apr 15, 2009 5:59pm
Quoting KissFan
Could I get some feedback concerning this possible trade opportunity. I see a Bearish Outside Bar forming here on the EUR/AUD daily chart. I think that some wait for a retrace before executing a trade on this set-up. I see some room to profit from a continuation down. I am looking for the most conservative entry idea and I think the retrace might be it. I am also aware of the 8100 area possibly being a thorn in my side as the weekly suggests. Thanks in advance.

K.I.S.S.
I drew a fib and it seems to pierce the 50 fib downwards. I think I am going to get in on this trade later tonight.
  • #27,087
  • Apr 15, 2009 5:59pm Apr 15, 2009 5:59pm
I know this pair has been posted already because of this pin bar but i also see that it's at the 61.8 fib and it's also bouncing off a trendline, worth a punt i think.

Actually because of resistance levels i'm gonna put an order in at 87.30 and see how she goes.
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  • #27,088
  • Apr 15, 2009 6:02pm Apr 15, 2009 6:02pm
Quoting Billy73
I know this pair has been posted already because of this pin bar but i also see that it's at the 61.8 fib and it's also bouncing off a trendline, worth a punt i think.

Actually because of resistance levels i'm gonna put an order in at 87.30 and see how she goes.

The only thing I dont like is the size of the wick compared to the previous price action so I am standing aside...
  • #27,089
  • Apr 15, 2009 6:11pm Apr 15, 2009 6:11pm
the daily closed as a nice beob. we usually like to see these at a swing high, but this is off of a monthly rd# ppz at 1.85 and more space to continue going down with the trend. we will probably see a retrace, but i think it will continue moving down.
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  • #27,090
  • Apr 15, 2009 6:13pm Apr 15, 2009 6:13pm
Quoting Shermenator
The only thing I dont like is the size of the wick compared to the previous price action so I am standing aside...
Yes have to admit that previous bar is a nasty bearish one.
  • #27,091
  • Apr 15, 2009 6:38pm Apr 15, 2009 6:38pm
Quoting KissFan
Could I get some feedback concerning this possible trade opportunity. I see a Bearish Outside Bar forming here on the EUR/AUD daily chart. I think that some wait for a retrace before executing a trade on this set-up. I see some room to profit from a continuation down. I am looking for the most conservative entry idea and I think the retrace might be it. I am also aware of the 8100 area possibly being a thorn in my side as the weekly suggests. Thanks in advance.

K.I.S.S.
Since this is not the ideal location for a BEOB, it would (for me) be a tight stop loss, quick to break even trade at the break. Also how hard it breaks would tell me it the setup is confirmed or not.

Retracements on BEOB/BUOB usually retrace to the previous Bar (candle) Low/High. That's when they act like they're suppose to do. lol
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #27,092
  • Apr 15, 2009 6:56pm Apr 15, 2009 6:56pm
Hello traders. This is my first post, though I've read much of this thread and watched and read everything on the James16 site guest area.

Can someone please confirm how far back you go when looking at PPZ, or clarify what makes a PPZ relevant? I'm guessing it's the amount of times price bounces off it in both directions. Is there a minimum amount of times it should do this to be valid?

As instructed, I've drawn weekly PPZ lines on all 16 pairs I'm watching (so as to trade the daily charts). For the charts which go back into the early 1980's in my charting system (CMC Market's Marketmaker) such as the GBP/USD, the PPZs still look relevant today but as time goes forward, more zones will be created and my charts will end up looking like a Pipped-out zebra.

Thanks for your time and experience,
fudge.
  • #27,093
  • Apr 15, 2009 7:11pm Apr 15, 2009 7:11pm
Quoting jarroo
Since this is not the ideal location for a BEOB, it would (for me) be a tight stop loss, quick to break even trade at the break. Also how hard it breaks would tell me it the setup is confirmed or not.

Retracements on BEOB/BUOB usually retrace to the previous Bar (candle) Low/High. That's when they act like they're suppose to do. lol
jarro,
tight stop loss or large stop loss isn't it all the same? you are risking 1-3% of your account each time. if you lose the trade you are hurt the same amount as any other trade.. (that is if you trade this way)

or on trades like these do you risk less than your standard, so when you have a tight SL maybe you only risk .5% of your acct as opposed to the std 1% per say?
  • #27,094
  • Apr 15, 2009 7:23pm Apr 15, 2009 7:23pm
So what does everyone think abour this pair and this chart. I'm looking to enter at the open of the previous bar. Anyone else think this pair is still headed higher?
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"Luck favors the prepared mind"
  • #27,095
  • Apr 15, 2009 7:33pm Apr 15, 2009 7:33pm
Quoting dengzhi
jarro,
tight stop loss or large stop loss isn't it all the same? you are risking 1-3% of your account each time. if you lose the trade you are hurt the same amount as any other trade.. (that is if you trade this way)

or on trades like these do you risk less than your standard, so when you have a tight SL maybe you only risk .5% of your acct as opposed to the std 1% per say?
The position size is bigger on a tighter stop loss.

Yes, I would reduce my acct percentage on less then ideal setups.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #27,096
  • Apr 15, 2009 7:37pm Apr 15, 2009 7:37pm
Quoting jpa0827
So what does everyone think abour this pair and this chart. I'm looking to enter at the open of the previous bar. Anyone else think this pair is still headed higher?
JPA,
I don't personally see anything that would warrant you putting some risk into a position. Why?
- Not at a Swing High/Low
- No PA
- Will hit previous bar highs 20-30pips after the break

This is not an A trade setup for me, so I will be staying on the sidelines. What I'd like to see is a break through the previous bar highs and then some retracement, where we see 0.7300 hold as a support. That would be a better signal of a continuing trend, IMO.

Josh
  • #27,097
  • Apr 15, 2009 7:55pm Apr 15, 2009 7:55pm
Quoting fudge
Hello traders....
Hey fudge

There is no set rule of how many times an area needs to be hit. Since you are going to have both major and minor ppzs.

So you can have a small flip area that is hit 3-4 times(and happened within a few days and it is still a PPZ, just a minor one. Then you can have a zone that goes back years and years, and is much wider in its zone and is considered a major PPZ.

So I always tell people to zoom their charts out a decent amount to get a good idea of the zones, the importance of a zone etc.

Example below. You can see we have a HUGE ppz(and the more major a PPZ the bigger the zone tends to be remember they are zones). That is the big blue box

Then you can see my small blue boxes are also flips in support and resistance but obviously more minor zones

This phenomenon is occurring all the times on smaller timeframes to the larger timeframes. To important and then less important ones. It is not something you set in stone. It is a look and a feel and will become second nature after practice

Hope that helps

Mike
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  • #27,098
  • Edited 8:30pm Apr 15, 2009 7:57pm | Edited 8:30pm
Hi everyone. I have been reading through all the posts here and it has really changed my trading. Can you give your opinion on this PB ? Is it too small ?
Thanks very much
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  • #27,099
  • Apr 15, 2009 8:07pm Apr 15, 2009 8:07pm
Quoting mbqb11
Hey fudge

There is no set rule of how many times an area needs to be hit. Since you are going to have both major and minor ppzs...
Thanks Mike, that helps a lot; I understand what you are saying.

Happy trading,
fudge
  • #27,100
  • Edited 8:31pm Apr 15, 2009 8:07pm | Edited 8:31pm
Morning,
Just been reading the comments about Kissfan's BEOB on EURAUD.
I like the look of this pair also. Again not at a swing low but as a continuation of trend, if it clears the high at .8366 its a clear run to the 365EMA. What do you guys think?

Steve

Edit: Just checked FxPro which is a few pips short of a BUOB. Also has a different high to Alpari.
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"The more I practice, the luckier I get." (Gary Player)
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