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  • #10,801
  • Apr 15, 2009 5:11pm Apr 15, 2009 5:11pm
I should further clarify that like most people on here I have my own particular way of trading s/r but it incorporates most of BRV's principles.

I identify s/r levels in weekly, daily, 4hr and 1hr TFs. These are colour coded so that I can tell which TF the s/r comes from as higher TFs are more significant. My core TF is 1hr but I go down to 5min to monitor price action.

Then it is just a case of confluence/convergence, I look for fib levels, round numbers, trend lines, wicks, buckets, etc. that further validate the level and help give me a measure of probability. After all we need a way to distinguish a 60% from a 90% trade.

Finally I keep an eye on the trend in each TF and an ear open for the fundamentals that could help or hinder my trades.

Use BRV's PDF to create a daily trading plan that works for you.

Good luck!
  • #10,802
  • Apr 15, 2009 5:18pm Apr 15, 2009 5:18pm
Hello Guys,


I have been following your blog for some time and I need to say i am extremely impressed to say the least and reading this blog influenced my trading in a lot of ways.
I am drawing S/R lines every day now along with Pivots after the bell.

I have 2 problems.

1. I am so accustomed to scalping that I practically scalp these levels of S/R and Pivot points. I start feeling uncomfortable if price moves against me.

2. I wonder how can I detect the most important S/R levels? I find a lot of them, but it seems most are minor but few are real deal.
How can I distinguish between minor and major S/R levels?

and I have one more question. When taking position how many pips price crossed S/R level and I decide to close position at lose? How many pips should be my stop loss with this style?

Thank you very much in advance!

Kudos to Billyray for Great Job!
  • #10,803
  • Apr 15, 2009 5:57pm Apr 15, 2009 5:57pm
shiko,

Have you carefully read the pdf file at the bottom of the first post. As I recall your questions are probably all answered.

Except for "how many pips should my stop loss be" and I think that everyone has a different answer for this - some better than others depending on how much time they have put into understanding themselves, their wishes, and their markets.
  • #10,804
  • Apr 15, 2009 9:57pm Apr 15, 2009 9:57pm
Quoting RedCabbage
I should further clarify that like most people on here I have my own particular way of trading s/r but it incorporates most of BRV's principles.

I identify s/r levels in weekly, daily, 4hr and 1hr TFs. These are colour coded so that I can tell which TF the s/r comes from as higher TFs are more significant. My core TF is 1hr but I go down to 5min to monitor price action.

Then it is just a case of confluence/convergence, I look for fib levels, round numbers, trend lines, wicks, buckets, etc. that further validate the level and help give me a measure...
Thank you very much for the charts! Just what I needed!
  • #10,805
  • Apr 16, 2009 12:30am Apr 16, 2009 12:30am
  •  FxChi
  • | Joined Dec 2007 | Status: Cash Rules Everything Around Me | 749 Posts
This just popped out @ me so figured I'd share. Looks like decent support @ 147.77. Can't get a chart up for some reason, but check it out on 1 hr. Tons of touches as support and resistance.
"Wishful thinking dies hard." Igor T.
  • #10,806
  • Apr 16, 2009 1:20am Apr 16, 2009 1:20am
Quoting FxChi
This just popped out @ me so figured I'd share. Looks like decent support @ 147.77. Can't get a chart up for some reason, but check it out on 1 hr. Tons of touches as support and resistance.
I agree
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FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #10,807
  • Edited 1:53am Apr 16, 2009 1:23am | Edited 1:53am
Ignore the MAVs but a good place for bounce. Already at BE
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FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #10,808
  • Apr 16, 2009 3:11am Apr 16, 2009 3:11am
Hi all,

The former 50% retracement of 1.5722-1.3501 is 1.4611, and 1.4600 has a good history behind it in general.

Just watch out for spastic sell-offs as cable is, in general, considered 'overbought' at the current range and a couple hundred pips can be a walk in the part for this pair.

1.4580 is the local low so I would be alert for that, as well, in the event of spikes lower.

And if it wants to take it out alltogether, my next area long would be in the 1.4380 area.
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  • #10,809
  • Edited 3:17am Apr 16, 2009 3:13am | Edited 3:17am
BRV has twittered 13127 and 13090 which I agree with on both counts.

It is in a triangle in the 1hr so if it doesn't break out south from here we should only see a very short rally up before we hit the levels posted.
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  • #10,810
  • Apr 16, 2009 3:15am Apr 16, 2009 3:15am
Does anyone here follow ifr orderboards? I'd like to have a discussion on them with someone
  • #10,811
  • Apr 16, 2009 3:22am Apr 16, 2009 3:22am
Quoting Ferrari
Does anyone here follow ifr orderboards? I'd like to have a discussion on them with someone
They're 'iffy' to say the least. I would just stick to a regular plan. Watching them for some time, I notice the bank orders touted can be pretty much like a 50/50 shot with them.

Hate to say this, and not to sound like a jerk, but levels you can identify on your own will usually pay much better. They can be decent for confirmation, but I got to the point where I dont even really look at them much anymore.

Sometimes they work, sometimes not. But overall less than 70% I would think, just throwing darts but probably even lower.
  • #10,812
  • Apr 16, 2009 3:29am Apr 16, 2009 3:29am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
They're 'iffy' to say the least. I would just stick to a regular plan. Watching them for some time, I notice the bank orders touted can be pretty much like a 50/50 shot with them.

Hate to say this, and not to sound like a jerk, but levels you can identify on your own will usually pay much better. They can be decent for confirmation, but I got to the point where I dont even really look at them much anymore.

Sometimes they work, sometimes not. But overall less than 70% I would think, just throwing darts but maybe even lower.
Also, bank orders are a great tool, but getting access to them is impossible. The orders that really move the market are only published on Reuters and EBS, and no broker publishes that to one another, despite common retail myths you hear all the time.

It really is a 'quiet' market in terms of what gets published. Deutsche, UBS, Citibank, JPM, etc are the biggest ones, and the orders they have move markets, so getting access to their books is about the only useful tool anyone can expect to have (retail or institutional).

I know there are some people (even retail services) out there that claim to have access to this kind of info, but either its illegal or they're lying. Plain and simple.

The orders on IFR are touted, meaning people cry them out in hopes of getting others on board.

Your big orders are going to be in the areas we talk about here. All you need is a chart to tell you that.
  • #10,813
  • Edited 3:45am Apr 16, 2009 3:34am | Edited 3:45am
Quoting Ferrari
Does anyone here follow ifr orderboards? I'd like to have a discussion on them with someone
One thing that bothers me about the retail trading crowd is that 'your broker is out to get you, so you better watch your back'. Any retail broker would need literally tens to hundreds of millions in notional volume to move the market enough to take out your stop on your $30.00 trade. They could care less, unless they're making markets, and you're drastically milking their profits. At that point theyre more likely to just close your account or do something else shady, but if that is the case, you've found yourself one helluva crappy broker.

Not to say that bigger players cant do this/have done this on other larger orders, but again its as simple as following a trading plan and being generous, but not too much, in terms of your stops. There are actually people out there that profit in this business .
  • #10,814
  • Apr 16, 2009 3:36am Apr 16, 2009 3:36am
Quoting BillyRayValentine

It really is a 'quiet' market in terms of what gets published. Deutsche, UBS, Citibank, JPM, etc are the biggest ones, and the orders they have move markets, so getting access to their books is about the only useful tool anyone can expect to have (retail or institutional).
Google market 'microstructure' analysis and you can learn more about this.
  • #10,815
  • Apr 16, 2009 4:07am Apr 16, 2009 4:07am
Quoting RedCabbage
BRV has twittered 13127 and 13090 which I agree with on both counts.

It is in a triangle in the 1hr so if it doesn't break out south from here we should only see a very short rally up before we hit the levels posted.

Bad EUR news - there goes the break out of the triangle let's see if it can close lower.
  • #10,816
  • Apr 16, 2009 4:46am Apr 16, 2009 4:46am
Appreaciate your thoughts there. Funny you mention brokers stop hunting, I went short the eurchf yesterday at 1.5115 and placed an oco stop at 1.5130 and limit at 1.4985. I left my computer for a minute and when I came back price had dropped in my direction but I was stopped out. Price had got nowhere near my stop.

The first chart shows the bid price. The second shows the offer at that time quoted through my broker.

I am currently looking for a new broker, as this is obvious stop hunting. The broker was CMC Markets (Australia).

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  • #10,817
  • Apr 16, 2009 5:03am Apr 16, 2009 5:03am
Quoting Ferrari
Appreaciate your thoughts there. Funny you mention brokers stop hunting, I went short the eurchf yesterday at 1.5115 and placed an oco stop at 1.5130 and limit at 1.4985. I left my computer for a minute and when I came back price had dropped in my direction but I was stopped out. Price had got nowhere near my stop.

The first chart shows the bid price. The second shows the offer at that time quoted through my broker.

I am currently looking for a new broker, as this is obvious stop hunting. The broker was CMC Markets (Australia).

Attachment ...
Yeah bid/ask manipulation can be a whole 'nother story, and unfortuntely most of these guys say right in their disclaimers that they reserve the right to do as they please in terms of this....but who knows; could have just been bad luck. Everyone is innocent until proven guilty in my book, unless they look like clear cut crap garbage right off the bat . More and more investment banks are offering retail services, like Deutsche, Citi, etc, and there are some good ECN's out there. Would always recommend those.
  • #10,818
  • Apr 16, 2009 5:06am Apr 16, 2009 5:06am
Quoting Ferrari
I am currently looking for a new broker, as this is obvious stop hunting. The broker was CMC Markets (Australia).
I'm with CityIndex, have no problems with them.
  • #10,819
  • Apr 16, 2009 5:09am Apr 16, 2009 5:09am
It is really important to remember that CMC is not a broker. They are a bucket shop.

A broker acts as your agent in a real market (banks and a range of other participants) and they show you the prices offered in that environment. They make their profit by commissions on honest transactions. A bucket shop takes a feed from the real market and then offers you bid and ask prices as they wish taking their profits in typically hidden ways (larger spread is the most honest, playing with the bid/ask is another opportunity, stretching stop runs to their advantage wouldn't seem unreasonable if they were down on revenue for the month).

Now it might be that in a real market you would have seen a big rise in spread at the time it showed on your charts. Or it might be that your bucket shop was piling a few extra dollars into their buckets. So you need to either get a real broker or get the least offensive bucket shop you can find.

I avoided CMC as an international ... and when they came to Aus I avoided them like the plague.
  • #10,820
  • Apr 16, 2009 5:10am Apr 16, 2009 5:10am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Yeah bid/ask manipulation can be a whole 'nother story, and unfortuntely most of these guys say right in their disclaimers that they reserve the right to do as they please in terms of this....but who knows; could have just been bad luck. Everyone is innocent until proven guilty in my book, unless they look like clear cut crap garbage right off the bat . More and more investment banks are offering retail services, like Deutsche, Citi, etc, and there are some good ECN's out there. Would always recommend those.
If your broker operates out of an 'office' (straw hut) in Mongolia but is 'officially regulated' by the government of some island off of the coast of Africa you never heard of, chances are you're getting shafted.

(no offense to my mongolian or african friends )
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