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  • #1,961
  • Apr 15, 2009 11:42am Apr 15, 2009 11:42am
Quoting Naws
In this cases she found support at the trendline, but would you agree that horizontal SR takes precedence over diagonal lines?
Good question, young man, and one that is debated in many forums. The S & R levels are without doubt, the most reliable areas for price action. They are proven over and over again, year in, year out.

TLs are also very useful too as they are dynamic, they are moving and adjusting with price flow (swings) and for me, they are useful in many other ways.

Whether to use TLs or not, is a personal preference - Jim of J16 doesn't use them and therefore, neither does Baba G. I use everything available in my toolbox and TLs are in my toolbox.

Let's look at your USDCHF:

Price respected BOTH the TL and support at psycho 1.1300. Notice also that the 365 is acting as support. Also notice the 38.2% fib support.

So what is this telling us? This is a STRONG area of support.

Add this to the very important support of psycho 1.1200 below that and we have a VERY STRONG area of support.

Now don't get carried away thinking price MUST go up because of this support - ALWAYS wait for PASR to tell us what, where, when and how to trade.

Keeping an open mind, what would it tell us if price closed below both these support areas?

Notice also the triangle on the boundary of prices. Wait for PASR to confirm the break out of this formation.

Interesting times for USDCHF, and therefore EURUSD which have been wandering around aimlessly.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,962
  • Apr 15, 2009 11:50am Apr 15, 2009 11:50am
Quoting AminAS
http://img6.imageshack.us/img6/4741/usdcad.gif

We have our clear close below 1.2200. It is now testing it. I remember Strat saying that this area was iffy and to wait for a close below it to enter, especially on a retest. Does that mean enter at the market, stop loss above the high of yesterday's massive bar?

PS - Check out that trendline. A very black and white channel separation.
Well, as we can tell from price, she wants to get to 1.1850ish in a hurry and didn't give us our re-test (unless of course, you drop down to lower time frames!).

Never beat yourself up about missing a trade - I used to and it drove me crackers! There is always a trade being set up somewhere.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,963
  • Apr 15, 2009 11:56am Apr 15, 2009 11:56am
Quoting Bloom
As tempting as it is to just bung one on I think we should wait for clear PA for our entry on the daily chart. If we start looking intra day then we'll be back to the stress of 15 minute charts. If the daily entry doesn't appear then so be it. Potential inside bar today, lets see how it finishes up.
Malcolm, you are a changed man. Well done! Gone is the man who wanted to jump on everything going. As you are witnessing, patience and discipline is as important to your account balance as taking a trade.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,964
  • Apr 15, 2009 12:00pm Apr 15, 2009 12:00pm
Hi El

Just caught up with posts, and I don't see a short on this. This is my view of the cuurent situation with 4hrs to my daily close in the UK:
PA bounced off 61.8% fib from SL 8/4/09 to SH 13/4/09 & off pre drawn trend line, PA forming potential Fib extension 161.8% at level 7450 last time there 2006. This area also coincides with BOSS 50 MA (see blue rectangle area). Daily MAs clear uptrend supported by Boss 20. PA not at a SH for a short. Comments welcome, Nicole
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  • #1,965
  • Apr 15, 2009 12:05pm Apr 15, 2009 12:05pm
Quoting rgrace
Something else is it will be above PSYCHO level .7200. This would be confluence from 50 fib (thanks Strat for pointing this out, I did not notice it at first). PSYCHO level .7200, Support .7193. With price action to confirm. Now the only decision to make is decide if the risk would be worth it if it does indeed close as a hammer. Still have 6 hours to go, it could drop 100+ pips or rise 100+ before it closes.
Young, Mr Grace, you have only just started on The Path of Learning - don't expect to find the treasure after only walking 100 yards! Some of us have walked thousands of miles and are still looking for the treasure!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,966
  • Apr 15, 2009 12:08pm Apr 15, 2009 12:08pm
Quoting strat
Young, Mr Grace, you have only just started on The Path of Learning - don't expect to find the treasure after only walking 100 yards! Some of us have walked thousands of miles and are still looking for the treasure!

I am aware of my just beginning, and I have many years of learning ahead. Hmm, something tells me you see something I do not. Maybe I should look at it a little closer. Still looks decent to me, if it closes similar.

Just got a little excited about a potential tango with the queen
  • #1,967
  • Apr 15, 2009 12:16pm Apr 15, 2009 12:16pm
Quoting el_duende
aud/usd I have a short open @ 0.72

I see that long term resistance at 0.7260 was broken and a daily bar closed above this resistance. However the next day an inside bar formed and price closed below this resistance. I believe this shows market undecided where to go i think at this level. Today I shorted at 0.72 from the low of the inside bar.

Looking at chart now I am rethinking this trade as it appears im jumping tge gun trying to pick a top despite other signals still being bullish, it may have been wiser to wait a few more bars to see...
WHAT - SHORT?
I'll send you my wire transfer details so that you can DIRECT DEPOSIT in my bank account - it will save you spread and commission!

Remember Dr Joe? It keeps on going up until it stops going up - Has it stopped going up? Has it got on the turntable yet? Has it started going down yet? Have you looked at the BOSS? Have you looked at the BIG BOSS?

Can't you see the UPstair - stepping action? Have you looked at the 20? Have you looked at where price is RELATIVE to the 20?

Unless you are a shorter time frame trader, there is NOTHING, NOTHING on the Daily time frame telling you to short this market!

Please go back to the beginning of The Path of Learning before you blow everything you have.

Very disappointing, el duende, very disappointing!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,968
  • Apr 15, 2009 12:21pm Apr 15, 2009 12:21pm
Quoting rgrace
I am aware of my just beginning, and I have many years of learning ahead. Hmm, something tells me you see something I do not. Maybe I should look at it a little closer. Still looks decent to me, if it closes similar.

Just got a little excited about a potential tango with the queen
Maybe you need to learn 1-2-3, 1-2-3, before attempting a tango! Also be very careful of dancing with the Queen without pizza man's permission!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,969
  • Apr 15, 2009 12:29pm Apr 15, 2009 12:29pm
Quoting strat
Maybe you need to learn 1-2-3, 1-2-3, before attempting a tango! Also be very careful of dancing with the Queen without pizza man's permission!
Ok, maybe a texas 2 step

I would definitely use caution, since I am still very new to price action any trade that I decide to take will only be about 1/4% risk or less if possible. If it is more than 1/4% I will pass. I have not decided whether to take this or not as of yet, still waiting for close and we will go from there.
  • #1,970
  • Apr 15, 2009 12:31pm Apr 15, 2009 12:31pm
Hi Strat,

Thanks for the detail information about the USDCHF chart. It can a confirmation that USDJPY is trying to finish its up cycle to 103.50, if they are in sync.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,971
  • Apr 15, 2009 12:40pm Apr 15, 2009 12:40pm
Quoting strat
Malcolm, you are a changed man. Well done! Gone is the man who wanted to jump on everything going. As you are witnessing, patience and discipline is as important to your account balance as taking a trade.
Yes, I have acquired patience. Now I need to know when to take profits appropriately, and when I see a setup to really hit it. I've seen quite a few setups and go without me. Took that NZDJPY setup last week (shame about the hols or it might have gone) but still don't know when to get out. +120 to BE. One thing at a time. Preserve capital. The profits will come.
  • #1,972
  • Edited 1:20pm Apr 15, 2009 1:18pm | Edited 1:20pm
Quoting patrick25
Hi Strat,

Thanks for the detail information about the USDCHF chart. It can a confirmation that USDJPY is trying to finish its up cycle to 103.50, if they are in sync.
Correlation eh? I read and studied correlation for months and then tried it on another thread and it worked fantastic. Then, out of the blue, just when I thought I had the key to the Magic Kingdom, it turned on it's head and was about as much use as a crack in a glass eye! Remember, Nicola?

I watch what similar pairs are doing but I don't guess what they should do based on what another pair is doing. The only pairs that are highly correlated, as of today's date are:

USDCHF 84.7% inverse correlation with EURUSD
EURCHF 85% correlation with EURUSD
EURJPY 73.6% correlation with EURUSD

EURJPY 86.1% correlation with USDJPY

USDJPY has an 18.4% inverse correlation with USDCHF so nowhere near as good as a coin toss!

These are the only correlations higher than 70% - any less and you are better off with a coin toss.

Sorry I can't give the link to this website but it's another bait and switch scam.

""finish its up cycle to 103.50"" You are indeed a brave man, Sir. Let us hold your feet to the fire on this (I was going to say another part of your anatomy which are rounder but I resisted the temptation). My crystal ball is frosted over and full of cracks from previous predictions so it's pretty useless. Maybe in future we can use yours?

Also, I don't think there is any benefit in pulling your fibs from that swing. A more meaningful swing is from March 19 to April 06.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,973
  • Apr 15, 2009 1:28pm Apr 15, 2009 1:28pm
Champions League on the box again in 5 mins - Porto vs Man United.

Now on this, I want Man United to win (any EPL team will do - even Arsenal) but they have a very tough game before them - not sure they can pull this out of the bag.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,974
  • Apr 15, 2009 1:40pm Apr 15, 2009 1:40pm
So that's what I can hear on the telly in the other room! I'll stick to my charts, much more fun for me!!
  • #1,975
  • Apr 15, 2009 2:26pm Apr 15, 2009 2:26pm
Quoting el_duende
aud/usd I have a short open @ 0.72

I see that long term resistance at 0.7260 was broken and a daily bar closed above this resistance. However the next day an inside bar formed and price closed below this resistance. I believe this shows market undecided where to go i think at this level. Today I shorted at 0.72 from the low of the inside bar.

Looking at chart now I am rethinking this trade as it appears im jumping tge gun trying to pick a top despite other signals still being bullish, it may have been wiser to wait a few more bars to see...
Hi everyone

I did close my trade sharpish before as after looking at it again I wondered why I did it initially when I even say everything is bullish

I will punish myself by 20 writing lines

I must not get urges to trade without a solid trading plan
I must not get urges to trade without a solid trading plan
I must not get urges to trade without a solid trading plan
I must not get urges to trade without a solid trading plan
I must not get urges to trade without a solid trading plan
I must not get urges to trade without a solid trading plan
I must not get urges to trade without a solid trading plan
I must not get urges to trade without a solid trading plan
I must not get urges to trade without a solid trading plan
I must not get urges to trade without a solid trading plan
I must not get urges to trade without a solid trading plan
I must not get urges to trade without a solid trading plan
I must not get urges to trade without a solid trading plan
I must not get urges to trade without a solid trading plan
I must not get urges to trade without a solid trading plan
I must not get urges to trade without a solid trading plan
I must not get urges to trade without a solid trading plan
I must not get urges to trade without a solid trading plan
I must not get urges to trade without a solid trading plan
I must not get urges to trade without a solid trading plan
  • #1,976
  • Apr 15, 2009 2:39pm Apr 15, 2009 2:39pm
Quoting el_duende
Hi everyone

I did close my trade sharpish before as after looking at it again I wondered why I did it initially when I even say everything is bullish

I will punish myself by 20 writing lines
El Duende, do you have a trading journal? Either in excel or word? If you don't, start one...when you have to write down WHY you're entering a trade or placing an order, it helps sort the wheat from the chaff (trade wise) and you'll probably find (as i did) that when you're writing out you're wonderful trade idea, you struggle to find the real reasons why it should work, and you'll begin to pick more justified trades which you're comfortable with.
  • #1,977
  • Apr 15, 2009 2:40pm Apr 15, 2009 2:40pm
Quoting strat
""Rip it apart boys and let me know if I am all wet."" Hmm, I'm very tempted but I will resist!
No ripping allowed here only positive and constructive criticism

I don't think he was going to enter at the Weekly and major support of 131 - he was thinking of entering on a close below it - at least, that's what he should have thought.

""Pinnochio"" formation?!?!?!? - you're on the wrong thread, my friend - NO MUPPETS & PUPPETS ALLOWED HERE.
On your data, there was NO shooting star - what you think looked like a shooting...
Thanks Strat. I realize that this was a doji (and not a shooting star), but the formation sure looks like the Pinocchios I have studied from J16. After posting last night and reading the index again I found a post that noted you are not a fan of Puppets. Ooops! Not sure why you don't like them, but I'll keep searching. Back to the books. Time to go over this thread again even slower this time. I will also get back to J16 to see what I missed.
  • #1,978
  • Apr 15, 2009 2:48pm Apr 15, 2009 2:48pm
Quoting AstonDan
El Duende, do you have a trading journal? Either in excel or word? If you don't, start one...when you have to write down WHY you're entering a trade or placing an order, it helps sort the wheat from the chaff (trade wise) and you'll probably find (as i did) that when you're writing out you're wonderful trade idea, you struggle to find the real reasons why it should work, and you'll begin to pick more justified trades which you're comfortable with.
I have a previous trade where I written out a trade plan and its in profit on EUR/AUD and is going well. In fact EUR/AUD looks good to continue South.

I make a promise to my self never to do a trade without writing my plan out again
  • #1,979
  • Apr 15, 2009 3:21pm Apr 15, 2009 3:21pm
Evening team Strat, one of my favourite charts at the moment is EURUSD as it highlights the importance of looking at higher timeframes than the one you plan to enter on.

We are currently in a BIG BOSS IB, with price finding support of March's 50% Fib which is also a ROUND NUMBER giving us CONFLUENCE- see the close up daily chart below...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Then zoom out and look at the weekly and not only do we have a squiffy H&S forming (IMO), but look at how relevant the rest of the FIB levels have been as S/R back at least as far as 2001.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusdweekly.gif Size: 22 KB


No PA yet, but IMO these levels are important enough to...well...to post a couple of charts on Strat's thread
  • #1,980
  • Apr 15, 2009 3:41pm Apr 15, 2009 3:41pm
It is 4:37 EST. That beautiful AUD hammer I saw earlier, now is not looking so hot. Plus there is more risk now and less reward. So, I will not take it. I will wait for a good price action setup instead. So far this week is no trades. Usually by this time I would have traded at least 10, and that was a slow week. The lack of trading is giving me withdrawals, but I will still pass this one by. We need a scalper's anonymous.
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