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  • #1,941
  • Apr 14, 2009 9:22pm Apr 14, 2009 9:22pm
Quoting rgrace
This pair looks interesting to me....
For one of our newest team, you are doing very well and a credit to all the hard work you have been putting in to learn PASR (not that you have learned it all yet - none of us have).

Let's look at what you said:

Daily:
Why do you think it is possibly in a trend change? It is stair stepping to higher highs with no sign of relent. The last candle is at 50% fib retrace. Remember Dr. Joe? He still lives! If it goes from where it's at now to your identified resistance, then it will be a nice 200+ pips move.

Very accurate S & R and TLs - now where did you get those I wonder?

BOSS:
The double bottom has already formed - can you see the "W" formation?
Have you noticed the BOSS is also making higher highs and higher lows?

We must ALWAYS watch for PASR for our entry - NEVER guess, NEVER get sucked in by a certain move and worst of all, NEVER get sucked in by what somebody else does.

You may take over from AstonDan who seems to be falling asleep at the switch!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,942
  • Apr 14, 2009 9:29pm Apr 14, 2009 9:29pm
Quoting strat
Yes, very good ESPECIALLY ""However I'm not trading this due to risk /reward. Risk is Candle length."" Thinking about how much you will LOSE before how much you will win shows you are well on track. Good job!

We need to see some more PA which will get us in with lower risk
I agree with paddyham's analysis, but wanted to add some thoughts and get your feedback strat.

1. The bar he is entering on is near a support level (131) in my book (see attached chart). A warning area at a minimum for me.
2. Prior to the Engulfing bar there was a Pinocchio formation. This seems like a better probability trade to me.

Things supporting the Pinocchio trade:

1. Nose hit resistance around 135 (Price rejected 137.40 and closed right near resistance (from Oct).
2. Pinocchio's nose pierced through the 38.2% fib (measured from Aug 08 high to Oct 08 Low).
3. Price is pretty far away from 20. Elastic principle.

Negatives:
1. Price is above 20, 50, and Boss 20.
2. Trend has been up. What did the doctor say?

Trade and Trade Management:
Enter on Pinocchio formation (right eye formed at about 135.50).
Place Initial Stop above Nose - 137.50.
Move stop to BE ASAP.
Target 1 - 131 Support and 20 EMA.
Target 2 - 128.50 support (just above Boss 20) This also coincides with 38% fib from low to high of this recent trend.
Risk - 200 Pips
Reward - Up to 700 pips.
RR = 3 1/2 to 1.

I couldn't take this trade because my account size doesn't allow as much risk as required.

Pinocchios by their nature have long wicks which means risk is high.
Does that mean the probability of the trade is lower?
So, how do we lower our risk for a trade like this?

I suspect Baba G would jump all over this one.

Rip it apart boys and let me know if I am all wet.

Corbett
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPY-PinBar.jpg Size: 164 KB
  • #1,943
  • Edited Apr 15, 2009 9:42am Apr 14, 2009 9:41pm | Edited Apr 15, 2009 9:42am
Daily:
Why do you think it is possibly in a trend change? It is stair stepping to higher highs with no sign of relent. The last candle is at 50% fib retrace. Remember Dr. Joe? He still lives! If it goes from where it's at now to your identified resistance, then it will be a nice 200+ pips move.

Very accurate S & R and TLs - now where did you get those I wonder?

Thanks, learned that from a very wise man.


I was referring to the change from the longer term down trend, to the newer up trend which has not quite broken out of the double bottom neckline on the BOSS. It is the line I drew at the top of the double bottom on the BOSS chart I posted.

BOSS:
The double bottom has already formed - can you see the "W" formation?
Have you noticed the BOSS is also making higher highs and higher lows?

Yes the double bottom has formed on the BOSS but, It has not quite broken out of the neckline as of yet. Unless my neckline is wrong.

I did not notice the BOSS making higher highs and lows thanks for that insight. I probably did not word my post clearly. I am definitely bullish on this at this time.



You may take over from AstonDan who seems to be falling asleep at the switch![/quote]


Not quite sure what this means, may be something I missed previously in the forum?
  • #1,944
  • Apr 14, 2009 9:47pm Apr 14, 2009 9:47pm
Roses are Red.
Violets are Blue.
One14 wishes he only knew...
The secret S&R Levels that rgrace has accrued
The Queen is tough
The Queen will fight
I wish I could have a sip of her Grail...damn right.
For now I continue down the path
To prevent myself from taking a bath
Education is key and patience is too
If the risk is to be managed and the money not parted from the fool.
  • #1,945
  • Apr 14, 2009 9:56pm Apr 14, 2009 9:56pm
Quoting One14
Roses are Red.
Violets are Blue.
One14 wishes he only knew...
The secret S&R Levels that rgrace has accrued
The Queen is tough
The Queen will fight
I wish I could have a sip of her Grail...damn right.
For now I continue down the path
To prevent myself from taking a bath
Education is key and patience is too
If the risk is to be managed and the money not parted from the fool.
Bloody hell! You must have gone to the same school as Baba G - I will let him decipher this. I studied Science not Art, so I am lost, totally lost.

By the way, Arthur Askey, an old scouser comedian, got fined and into terrible trouble in the 50s for HIS Roses are Red ditty:

When roses are red, they are ready for pluckin'
When girls are sixteen, they are ready for......goodnight ladies!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,946
  • Apr 14, 2009 11:19pm Apr 14, 2009 11:19pm
Quoting One14
I agree with paddyham's analysis, but wanted to add some thoughts and get your feedback strat.

1. The bar he is entering on is near a support level (131) in my book (see attached chart). A warning area at a minimum for me.
2. Prior to the Engulfing bar there was a Pinocchio formation. This seems like a better probability trade to me.

Things supporting the Pinocchio trade:

1. Nose hit resistance around 135 (Price rejected 137.40 and closed right near resistance (from Oct).
2. Pinocchio's nose pierced through the 38.2% fib (measured from Aug 08...
It is a good trade,but why not consider placing ur stop at the 61.8% retracement of the pin bar next time,then you should be able to trade it.
D labour of a fool wearieth him cos he doesn't know how to enta d city
  • #1,947
  • Apr 14, 2009 11:31pm Apr 14, 2009 11:31pm
Quoting strat
Now let's see whether the Queen chooses your TL for support or her trusty, old, reliable 1995 support

Any takers?
In this cases she found support at the trendline, but would you agree that horizontal SR takes precedence over diagonal lines?
  • #1,948
  • Apr 15, 2009 12:40am Apr 15, 2009 12:40am
Quoting strat
You're in Toronto too? Does Nicola know? You haven't been messing with her brains have you? Be very careful, Baba G's of a Sicilian father (did you ever see the movie "The Godfather"?).
Yes I'm in Toronto, thanks for the info, now we'll have to stop our late night "trading" sessions or Baba G will off with my head
  • #1,949
  • Apr 15, 2009 1:21am Apr 15, 2009 1:21am
Quoting lordgbengs
It is a good trade,but why not consider placing ur stop at the 61.8% retracement of the pin bar next time,then you should be able to trade it.
Thats cheating lordgbengs. If you can't take it how it is, don't be so attached to taking the trade. We always find better setups with more manageable risk.
Bang.
  • #1,950
  • Apr 15, 2009 1:27am Apr 15, 2009 1:27am
http://img6.imageshack.us/img6/4741/usdcad.gif

We have our clear close below 1.2200. It is now testing it. I remember Strat saying that this area was iffy and to wait for a close below it to enter, especially on a retest. Does that mean enter at the market, stop loss above the high of yesterday's massive bar?

PS - Check out that trendline. A very black and white channel separation.
Bang.
  • #1,951
  • Apr 15, 2009 4:01am Apr 15, 2009 4:01am
Quoting AminAS

We have our clear close below 1.2200. It is now testing it. I remember Strat saying that this area was iffy and to wait for a close below it to enter, especially on a retest. Does that mean enter at the market, stop loss above the high of yesterday's massive bar?
As tempting as it is to just bung one on I think we should wait for clear PA for our entry on the daily chart. If we start looking intra day then we'll be back to the stress of 15 minute charts. If the daily entry doesn't appear then so be it. Potential inside bar today, lets see how it finishes up.
  • #1,952
  • Apr 15, 2009 4:57am Apr 15, 2009 4:57am
What a nasty little week so far.........i can hear the screams.

Like i said over the "recess" now is the time to be the most careful of your price action analysis!!!!!!


Will she wont she?
Right now shes showing me her ankles in a slightly provocative way but untill the King gives me permisson to mount said fillie il wait as a humble stable boy........g
  • #1,953
  • Edited 9:47am Apr 15, 2009 8:35am | Edited 9:47am
Ok, I know the day is not over. The current candle is not closed, and I will not be entering until it does. If the current candle keeps going up a bit more before it closes it will form a hammer.

Attached Image



This will be sitting on top of support at .7193. It is also right above the 50 fib and its tail tapped the 61.8. It also came close to touching my trendline. It is looking decent. Risk would be 95 pips if it closes close to where it is now, first target would be .7421. about 180 pips. It is in an uptrend, I would be holding at that point to see what it does when it taps the BOSS 50. So I am hoping to hold for more than 180 pips, depending on price action, if this does close as a hammer. What do you guys think?
  • #1,954
  • Apr 15, 2009 9:56am Apr 15, 2009 9:56am
The support you have at .7193, this is a significant level going back to 2003
I have this SR area ranging up to 0.7260 so be careful because it can act as resistance, and if we wait for price to clear this level we will be trading right into the BOSS which might be dangerous
  • #1,955
  • Apr 15, 2009 10:07am Apr 15, 2009 10:07am
Quoting Naws
The support you have at .7193, this is a significant level going back to 2003
I have this SR area ranging up to 0.7260 so be careful because it can act as resistance, and if we wait for price to clear this level we will be trading right into the BOSS which might be dangerous
Ok, I see that .7260 area. I overlooked it at first. It is in an uptrend, and in order to stay in the uptrend it will have to make a higher high. I will keep this in mind if price action at the end of the day lines up. The thing about it that I do not understand is if I go back all the way to the beginning and put in all of the significant support and resistance, there will be resistance and support levels every 60 pips or so. Sometimes a lot closer. Where do we draw the line, there has to be a trade off between putting in too many lines and not enough. I need to find that delicate balance I have not seen that level really see any reaction since 2006, it may this time I do not know. Thanks Naws for pointing it out.
  • #1,956
  • Apr 15, 2009 10:17am Apr 15, 2009 10:17am
Something else is it will be above PSYCHO level .7200. This would be confluence from 50 fib (thanks Strat for pointing this out, I did not notice it at first). PSYCHO level .7200, Support .7193. With price action to confirm. Now the only decision to make is decide if the risk would be worth it if it does indeed close as a hammer. Still have 6 hours to go, it could drop 100+ pips or rise 100+ before it closes.
  • #1,957
  • Apr 15, 2009 10:42am Apr 15, 2009 10:42am
Hi Team Strat

Wow, just arrived back home from my holiday, and look at all those pages - I'll catch up ASAP. Hope you all had a great Easter break, we were really lucky with the weather in the UK, sun every day expect yesterday & today....Nicole
  • #1,958
  • Apr 15, 2009 10:57am Apr 15, 2009 10:57am
aud/usd I have a short open @ 0.72

I see that long term resistance at 0.7260 was broken and a daily bar closed above this resistance. However the next day an inside bar formed and price closed below this resistance. I believe this shows market undecided where to go i think at this level. Today I shorted at 0.72 from the low of the inside bar.

Looking at chart now I am rethinking this trade as it appears im jumping tge gun trying to pick a top despite other signals still being bullish, it may have been wiser to wait a few more bars to see what happens.
  • #1,959
  • Apr 15, 2009 11:00am Apr 15, 2009 11:00am
Quoting One14
I agree with paddyham's analysis, but wanted to add some thoughts and get your feedback strat.

1. The bar he is entering on is near a support level (131) in my book (see attached chart). A warning area at a minimum for me.
2. Prior to the Engulfing bar there was a Pinocchio formation. This seems like a better probability trade to me.

Things supporting the Pinocchio trade:

1. Nose hit resistance around 135 (Price rejected 137.40 and closed right near resistance (from Oct).
2. Pinocchio's nose pierced through the 38.2% fib (measured from Aug 08...
""Rip it apart boys and let me know if I am all wet."" Hmm, I'm very tempted but I will resist!
No ripping allowed here only positive and constructive criticism

I don't think he was going to enter at the Weekly and major support of 131 - he was thinking of entering on a close below it - at least, that's what he should have thought.

""Pinnochio"" formation?!?!?!? - you're on the wrong thread, my friend - NO MUPPETS & PUPPETS ALLOWED HERE.
On your data, there was NO shooting star - what you think looked like a shooting star was a NEUTRAL doji.

Since it was a NEUTRAL doji on your data - you should have not even thought about a trade. We only trade reversals off Hammers and Shooting Stars and since you are not able to clearly recognise these, suggest you go back to studying these on J16. Do not try and trade "lookalike" candles as they will DRAIN YOUR ACCOUNT VERY FAST.

If Baba G saw a NEUTRAL doji, he would have gone back to sleep.

Also, don't forget you are trading before, during and after a holiday period which is ALWAYS RISKY because of low volume and "skeleton" staff.

Thanks for posting but please go and do a lot more work on candle recognition especially reversal candles.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,960
  • Apr 15, 2009 11:30am Apr 15, 2009 11:30am
Quoting el_duende
aud/usd I have a short open @ 0.72

I see that long term resistance at 0.7260 was broken and a daily bar closed above this resistance. However the next day an inside bar formed and price closed below this resistance. I believe this shows market undecided where to go i think at this level. Today I shorted at 0.72 from the low of the inside bar.

Looking at chart now I am rethinking this trade as it appears im jumping tge gun trying to pick a top despite other signals still being bullish, it may have been wiser to wait a few more bars to see...
Hmm.. I would be very concerned if I had shorted it. Against the trend bouncing the trend line. Good Luck!

To quote a trader whom I have a lot of respect for. "This would be like jumping in a wood chipper". Who knows though it may work out for you, I hope it does. If you do have a loss, take it on the chin. Learn from it, and look for the next setup.
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