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  • #1,861
  • Apr 11, 2009 12:33pm Apr 11, 2009 12:33pm
Hi Guys (and Gals),

I have been lurking for a couple of weeks while reading and finally got a FF account. I’m not sure I have a lot to contribute as I am mostly learning from you all, but maybe my questions will stir up some thought.
Prior to Strat and others posting about NZD/USD and NZD/JPY and…I was watching the setup. I am confused however since I don’t see a good entry this point and resistance is above (.6000). Perhaps you guys can set me straight. On my chart I see a Pin bar for the NZD/USD which I figured is an opportunity to trade down to support (38.2 Fib from March low to Monday’s PIN around .5555 and Boss 20 around same area). I attached a chart to show my thinking.

So, what do I do?

If I had Baba G’s experience and cahones, I would have traded the PIN as the confirmation bar was forming (100 or so pips if you caught the meat of it). I left it alone and have not entered a trade (I have a live account, but have started trading demo until I can read PA like a book).

I see the possibility that the long term trend has changed from down to up (price is above Boss 20 and other factors), but I don’t see a good low risk entry point at the moment and I am suspicious of overhead SR level (.6000). Am I missing something?

I guess the question is what will price do at that level? Looks like it already rejected it.

Corbett
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,862
  • Edited 2:54pm Apr 11, 2009 1:08pm | Edited 2:54pm
Strat, earlier in this thread I noticed you said you always put your stop loss at the swing low of the move and not the daily low. I now see that recently you have said to put stop loss at the daily low. That could mean a few things

1. You have changed your mind about stop placement.
2. You only trade at swing highs or lows.
3. One is for the longer term trades, the other is for the shorter term trades.

So my question is, when do we place the stop at the swing high and or low, and when do we place it at the low or high of the daily bar?
  • #1,863
  • Edited 7:15pm Apr 11, 2009 6:29pm | Edited 7:15pm
Quoting One14
Hi Guys (and Gals),

I have been lurking for a couple of weeks while reading and finally got a FF account. I’m not sure I have a lot to contribute as I am mostly learning from you all, but maybe my questions will stir up some thought.
Prior to Strat and others posting about NZD/USD and NZD/JPY and…I was watching the setup. I am confused however since I don’t see a good entry this point and resistance is above (.6000). Perhaps you guys can set me straight. On my chart I see a Pin bar for the NZD/USD which I figured is an opportunity to trade down...
My NZD/JPY was not my usual trade. I saw it as an ATM trade and thought I would just go in on a very low risk trade and take some money out of the hole in the wall. I was looking for it to test the recent highs but it ran out of steam, probably because of the Easter holidays. Very low risk because NZD/JPY is stair - stepping in a nice uptrend with bullish momentum and supporting cycles. It may go on to test the highs next week. Also JPY is still weak across the board. Just seemed a very low risk opportunity to get some dough before the holidays.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,864
  • Apr 11, 2009 6:44pm Apr 11, 2009 6:44pm
Quoting rgrace
Strat, earlier in this thread I noticed you said you always put your stop loss at the swing low of the move and not the daily low....
Nothing has changed with regard to where I put my SL. On an uptrend, it either goes below the low of a daily bar, or below the swing low or below support. Vicky Verka for a downtrend. Did I ever tell you about this girl called Vicky? Wow, she...... Damn, you nearly got me going again (You Really Got Me - Kinks 1964)

Exactly where it goes depends on where I am in the trend and how much I am protecting. When I am trying to position myself in a new trend, I will have a "loose" stop below swing lows or maybe support below that. When I get to the "somethings happening" part of the trend, I will probably use swing lows. When I am in my "balls to the wall", "pedal to the metal" trades and am protecting compounded profits, I will reign the stop in to either below the low of the last bar or the low of the bar two days or three days ago. It all depends on the pair, the strength of the trend, momentum, cycles and PRICE ACTION.

When I am in an "ATM" or "quickie" trade, my SL will go below the set up bar and then to BE as soon as I can.

Sorry it's not "black and white" but there again, neither is trading.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,865
  • Apr 11, 2009 7:11pm Apr 11, 2009 7:11pm
USDCAD is well worth watching. Why?

It is at very important support 1.2200 ish

It has put in a confirmed BOSS swing high

Momentum is down

Up cycle was completely washed aside

Does this mean it's going lower? Watch PASR for clues

See my previous posts on USDCAD
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,866
  • Apr 11, 2009 8:14pm Apr 11, 2009 8:14pm
Potential swing high on BOSS?

BOSS cycle topping?

Daily bouncing off 365 EMA (courtesy of J16)

1-2-3 Top on Daily?

Sell below BOSS low?

Sayanara
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,867
  • Apr 11, 2009 11:56pm Apr 11, 2009 11:56pm
[quote=strat;2663935]Nothing has changed with regard to where I put my SL. On an uptrend, it either goes below the low of a daily bar, or below the swing low or below support. Vicky Verka for a downtrend. Did I ever tell you about this girl called Vicky? Wow, she...... Damn, you nearly got me going again (You Really Got Me - Kinks 1964)

Thanks Strat. I know it is not black and white, and I know every trader will have a slightly different take. Thanks for the answer though. I thought you probably used them for different types of trades or for different times in the trade.
  • #1,868
  • Edited 12:42pm Apr 12, 2009 1:40am | Edited 12:42pm
Quoting strat
Potential swing high on BOSS?

BOSS cycle topping?

Daily bouncing off 365 EMA (courtesy of J16)

1-2-3 Top on Daily?

Sell below BOSS low?

Sayanara
If you are referring to selling at the weekly low, I see some flaws.

If you sold below boss low, you would be selling around 99.10. There is major support at 98.93. It is also at the psycho area 99.00. Unless my support and resistance is off, would that not be selling into major resistance? Not only that but the 20 is really close to that area as well, would that not be a major confluence as well?

Also on april 9th you posted 4 levels of support for USD/JPY. Have things changed since then? Not much. Hmm, according to all of that I do not believe I will be partaking unless things change quite a bit. Please correct me if I am wrong.

Addition: Upon going back and looking a little closer. I do see some good bearish price action on the daily. A nice shooting star on 4-06, Followed by a DBHLC on 4-08 followed by an inside bar on 4-09, and 4-10. Still looks risky though, lots of support right below around the 99.00 PSYCHO area. Price was also rejected by the BOSS 50. The 20, 50, and BOSS 20 are all heading up as well.
  • #1,869
  • Edited 4:35pm Apr 12, 2009 10:25am | Edited 4:35pm
Quoting strat
Potential swing high on BOSS?

BOSS cycle topping?

Daily bouncing off 365 EMA (courtesy of J16)

1-2-3 Top on Daily?

Sell below BOSS low?

Sayanara
Re USDJPY

That 1.0150 is certainly a VERY interesting level. It is the 1999 lows and the winter 2004 lows ...
You certainly opened my eyes ... thanks
Nicola
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,870
  • Apr 12, 2009 2:48pm Apr 12, 2009 2:48pm
Quoting rgrace
If you are referring to selling at the weekly low, I see some flaws.

If you sold below boss low, you would be selling around 99.10. There is major support at 98.93. It is also at the psycho area 99.00. Unless my support and resistance is off, would that not be selling into major resistance? Not only that but the 20 is really close to that area as well, would that not be a major confluence as well?

Also on april 9th you posted 4 levels of support for USD/JPY. Have things changed since then? Not much. Hmm, according to all of that I do not believe...
Stick around the thread a little longer and you will realise I say and do things to promote debate and to get the reader to do the work (just as you have done here). I like to test my readers to see if they really are reading AND understanding or just flash reading so I sometimes say and post silly things or things that don't make sense. I COULD post telling you what to do but you can find that out on other threads. What we do on here is TEACH. I want my following to know WHAT they are doing and WHY they are doing it and WHERE to do it and WHEN to do it. Copying other people or using other people's trades will not help anyone how to trade.

Look at Nicola's post below yours. She has taken the information I gave her which made her THINK. She then does her analysis and passes it on for others which is then another catalyst for other people to start thinking.

The IMPORTANT thing is that we DO NOT DO ANYTHING until we have PASR. This is why learning basic price action is so important. You MUST learn basic price action before you can move on to the other stuff we do on here and the other stuff we are planning to do.

Anyway, you did a good analysis so you are moving forward in your trading education. Good job.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,871
  • Apr 12, 2009 3:30pm Apr 12, 2009 3:30pm
PASR, whether you use it for day scalps, 2 or 3 day positions, swing trading or trend trading, will provide you with a method to consistently make money from the market. Learn it until you can do it with one hand in your sleep!

Once you are consistently making profits, FOCUS your attention on LOSING. Forget about how much you will win, your consistency will take care of that. Instead, focus on how much you could LOSE on each trade you take. Doing this will filter out MOST of your losing and unprofitable trades.

By doing this, you will become a more profit efficient trader. After you prove you can be a profit efficient trader, you can then move into the realms of where the BIG money is made in trading.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,872
  • Apr 12, 2009 3:43pm Apr 12, 2009 3:43pm
Quoting strat
Stick around the thread a little longer and you will realise I say and do things to promote debate and to get the reader to do the work

Yes I have already noticed that. Do not worry about me, I have learned my lesson a while back about taking blind trade calls. I listen to what people say and check it on the charts, but if it does not line up with my own analysis I will watch from the sidelines.


Quote
What we do on here is TEACH. I want my following to know WHAT they are doing and WHY they are doing it and WHERE to do it and WHEN to do it.

Good that is what I need. Teaching. Something that is sorely lacking in this world, especially in Forex. Most of the teachers out there are after a quick buck from a course. Very few true teachers out there, I tip my hat to you Strat, you are one in a million.



Quote
The IMPORTANT thing is that we DO NOT DO ANYTHING until we have PASR. This is why learning basic price action is so important.

Working on it Strat, I have been studying this forum, the James16 forum and reading Pring's book on Price Patterns. All to learn to read price action like a book. I have also been going through my charts looking for these patterns bar by bar, to cement them in my mind and give me instant recall. I am getting a little better, still a long way to go though.


Quote
Anyway, you did a good analysis so you are moving forward in your trading education. Good job.

I was hoping my analysis was not way off base. I will keep my eye on USD/JPY, I believe something interesting may develop from it. I just hope I will be able to recognize the opportunity when it occurs. If I do not recognize it, then I really have no business in the trade anyway. And as you say the next one is setting up right now. Thanks for taking the time to read and reply to my post. Looking forward to learning a lot here.
  • #1,873
  • Apr 12, 2009 4:14pm Apr 12, 2009 4:14pm
Quoting rgrace
Yes I have already noticed that....
You are already way ahead of the average guy looking to make a career out of forex. You are applying logic and common sense which, for some reason known only unto themselves, new or wannabe traders forget. Most just want to be able to make a $million on the next trade - IF ONLY!

You have already accepted you have to take the Path of Learning and study, study and study some more and then when that is done practice, practice, practice. Then, AND ONLY then, are you in a position to make a rational analysis and trade decision. Then, when you believe you are proficient in PASR, you have to MASTER trading psychology or the head and mind games which, as I have said many times before, accounts for 90% of a trader's success. Those who have scoffed at this, have done so to the detriment of their account balance.

If you continue with this approach, you will become the shining example for future and newcomers to this thread.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,874
  • Apr 12, 2009 6:30pm Apr 12, 2009 6:30pm
Quoting strat
Then, when you believe you are proficient in PASR, you have to MASTER trading psychology or the head and mind games which, as I have said many times before, accounts for 90% of a trader's success.
Let me tell you a story about psychology. When I first started trading I demoed for a few weeks. I grew my demo account off of an MA cross system. I guess market conditions were perfect for it at that time. Anyway, I had really good success for a couple weeks and made a really good percent gain in my demo.

With that success, of course, the wheels started turning. The allure of easy millions, seemed so attainable. I put a couple of grand in a mini account. Started trading with strict money management, 3% a trade. I did very well on my first 3 trades. My account was up around 12-13% in a few days. Beginners luck, unfortunately. I had a bright idea, I am risking 3% of my account, hmm...... What if I double that risk and risk 6%. Sounds good. Twice the profit. Instead of just risking 6% why don't I risk all my profits plus 6%. After all that is free money, right? It is not my money it is the markets money. So I traded 6% of my account plus all my profits. And BAM!, a failed trade. So I thought to myself, hmm I have gained 3 out of 4 times, what is the chance of losing twice? So, you guessed it, a revenge trade to get back all that I lost including all the profit. The market slapped me again. It was at this point that I withdrew my money, and decided to learn to trade forex. Since that time, I have opened a smaller account, I trade pennies a pip until I can stay consistently profitable. And I plan on continuing that way. And then ratchet my risk up to a reasonable level with time. I realised early on, that I would not last a month the way that I was going.

So I have faced quite a few of these demons, and though they are not gone, they are under control for the time being. I am aware it will change and I will have to conquer them at each step as I raise the amount of money I am trading. But, I am up to the challenge. Anyway, I hope anyone who has not been there will read this and do the sensible thing. Demo, then trade tiny lots to keep the emotions at bay.
  • #1,875
  • Apr 13, 2009 3:22am Apr 13, 2009 3:22am
Quoting One14
Hi Guys (and Gals),

I have been lurking for a couple of weeks while reading and finally got a FF account. I’m not sure I have a lot to contribute as I am mostly learning from you all, but maybe my questions will stir up some thought.
Prior to Strat and others posting about NZD/USD and NZD/JPY and…I was watching the setup. I am confused however since I don’t see a good entry this point and resistance is above (.6000). Perhaps you guys can set me straight. On my chart I see a Pin bar for the NZD/USD which I figured is an opportunity to trade down...
Welcome......i didnt take it....yes both kiwis are up against supp right now......im waiting for a bar that makes me feel warm an snuggly.....look it might kick off from here....but so what?im mean really who cares?.
Im just waiting.........as always
  • #1,876
  • Apr 13, 2009 3:36am Apr 13, 2009 3:36am
Quoting rgrace
Let me tell you a story about psychology....
If your looking for the ice,i gave it to Strat for the "recess?" as i think he is still stinging from the Oil markets........
  • #1,877
  • Apr 13, 2009 3:45am Apr 13, 2009 3:45am
Quoting PaulKing
This is a little surreal..... B G is translating into English?
If he has a summer "vacation" im getting on a plane!!!!!lol
  • #1,878
  • Apr 13, 2009 4:36am Apr 13, 2009 4:36am
Over the "recess" Strat and i have been thinking of ways to stimulate and encourage your learning and learn ourselves.

I get so much from seeing your charts and set ups,hearing your stories ect......its cool

Whats more its incredible that people like Lance have made time to put the index together and start the PATH OF LEARNING.........i mean wow.

Untill this "recess" i had not looked at the index(sorry Lance) i was blown away.....

Clean,to the point,easy to follow.

Lance i just want to say "well done"

And i see we have the first leaping lemming......... rgrace!

rgrace has gone on the path to learning table........i hope its the begining of the end and the end of the begining for you.......and we got ice if it starts to sting abit......

I see im "approved" on the table....well the next time i lose i hope you all still love me,will YOU pass ME the ice.

rgarce has made a statement to him/her self that they are on a "path to learning".And as silly as a name on a list is it sets a construct for the mind to work around.......

Im still on the path to learning........i have only been swinging a nice bat for a year......in that time i played consolidation markets this time last year...then longed dollar over the summer with a "carry" unwind twist......kept on at it in the "fall" and been smashing and grabing since as she has bounced on the bottom(?).......Not a lot really.

So come on roll up roll up get your "path to learning" listing here like rgrace!

We may be fools but i dare you to call us foolish.

Again nice one Lance you truly are your brothers keeper
  • #1,879
  • Edited 4:06pm Apr 13, 2009 3:52pm | Edited 4:06pm
""Good that is what I need. Teaching. Something that is sorely lacking in this world, especially in Forex. Most of the teachers out there are after a quick buck from a course. Very few true teachers out there, I tip my hat to you Strat, you are one in a million. ""

Just read this - OK - I was flash reading before and skipped it - but at least I went back to read and understand

Thank you for your very kind words and appreciation - you are making me blush! I still don't feel any ego so that's even better.

Maybe it was me in the beginning but now there are a few of us with a wealth of trading experience to pass on especially Baba G, our pasta swilling, pizza munching Professional Trader and Money Manager.

My goal is to build a team of Professional, Experienced Traders who, like me, are interested in teaching and passing on their knowledge and expertise to those who are worthy of it.

If you, or other readers, think there are ways in which we can improve this thread so that it is both more educational and entertaining - let us know.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,880
  • Apr 13, 2009 4:02pm Apr 13, 2009 4:02pm
Quoting Baba G
Welcome......i didnt take it....yes both kiwis are up against supp right now......im waiting for a bar that makes me feel warm an snuggly.....look it might kick off from here....but so what?im mean really who cares?.
Im just waiting.........as always
Too much pizza! He means up against resistance.

NZDJPY:
I'm just struggling with duff data so its not giving me the look back I need but I see it banging heads with psycho 60.00 to form a triple top. We need to see if the carry will take it through this resistance. Momentum is bullish but it's slowing compared to earlier.

NZDUSD:
Banging heads with psycho 0.6000 (Hmmm - I've just written those same digits a few minutes ago somewhere else). Momentum is bullish and stronger than it's Kiwi cousin.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
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