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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #26,821
  • Apr 10, 2009 10:49am Apr 10, 2009 10:49am
Hi guys

Working my way thru entire thread(again) and almost there. A question I want to ask: if , as J16 advises, you consider playing an entry on the break of a pin on a round number just above/below the round number, will the big players not manipulate the market to get your entry before moving the market in the opposite direction? Hope this is clear!
PA is where its at!!
  • #26,822
  • Apr 10, 2009 11:12am Apr 10, 2009 11:12am
Does anyone notice the usd/jpy weekly bar ? bearish coming soon ?
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  • #26,823
  • Apr 10, 2009 11:28am Apr 10, 2009 11:28am
looks like a neutral bar from that chart

Quoting onmyself
Does anyone notice the usd/jpy weekly bar ? bearish coming soon ?
  • #26,824
  • Apr 10, 2009 11:31am Apr 10, 2009 11:31am
Quoting bertie123
Hi guys

Working my way thru entire thread(again) and almost there. A question I want to ask: if , as J16 advises, you consider playing an entry on the break of a pin on a round number just above/below the round number, will the big players not manipulate the market to get your entry before moving the market in the opposite direction? Hope this is clear!
IMO (and I am very new to all this), in FOREX the only major players, would be central banks. Their job isn't to try to trap a few of us minor traders (even James16 himself is a minor trader compared to the money they can and do move) into a stop loss.

Their job is to keep their country's economy strong and growing at an acceptible rate. FOREX, as far as I know, is too large for such manipulation. Now a reserve will manipulate the market (as is pointed out about the JPY often), but it isn't to take out Stop losses, as much as for a more fundamental reason. In this case, no trading method is 100%, so you take your loss (as you get better, you learn to protect your account by stopping out early) and just move on to the next trade. Even A+ trades will fail.

Now with individual stocks, especially smaller stocks, this might be possible. I don't plan on moving on from FOREX to other markets until I get my confidence built trading tiny units through Oanda.
  • #26,825
  • Edited Apr 11, 2009 5:55am Apr 10, 2009 11:41am | Edited Apr 11, 2009 5:55am
Quoting onmyself
Does anyone notice the usd/jpy weekly bar ? bearish coming soon ?
My take is (and I'm learning here), assuming it actually does develop into a weekly pin by days end, it's very short and I see some pretty good support areas right below it that I think would give it some trouble. I personally wouldn't take this one.
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Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #26,826
  • Edited 11:56am Apr 10, 2009 11:54am | Edited 11:56am
Quoting Aliassmith
looks like a neutral bar from that chart
its a neutral bar on my feed as well
look at the support its sitting on
for me, the shape is a no no and the location to ...imo
cheers
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Simplicity is the key to success
  • #26,827
  • Apr 10, 2009 12:13pm Apr 10, 2009 12:13pm
Quoting unlv_tj
IMO (and I am very new to all this), in FOREX the only major players, would be central banks. Their job isn't to try to trap a few of us minor traders (even James16 himself is a minor trader compared to the money they can and do move) into a stop loss.

Their job is to keep their country's economy strong and growing at an acceptible rate. FOREX, as far as I know, is too large for such manipulation. Now a reserve will manipulate the market (as is pointed out about the JPY often), but it isn't to take out Stop losses, as much as for a more fundamental...
HeY UV,

Thanks for that reply man. Although I have dabbled a lot in fx I am still essentially a newbie, but your response makes sense. I am learning a lot on my second trip through the thread - a lot of things which I never picked up the first time. Has been a slog at times but well worth it, and will move me forward if I can master myself!! (a BIG ask) lol
PA is where its at!!
  • #26,828
  • Apr 10, 2009 12:50pm Apr 10, 2009 12:50pm
Quoting albchr
My take is (and I'm learning here), assuming it actually does develop into a daily pin by days end, it's very short and I see some pretty good support areas right below it that I think would give it some trouble. I personally wouldn't take this one.
yeah agreed, small and more of a neutral look on your chart

Best
Mike
  • #26,829
  • Apr 10, 2009 12:56pm Apr 10, 2009 12:56pm
Quoting adam777
... so I shorted the beob 3 days back on the eurusd and I've hit a major ppz. is it best to exit and then wait for PA that breaks through the ppz to re-enter, or take 1/2 and trail the rest through to the next ppz? ... just learning and looking for insights.
Hi Adam,

You need to know of a few very important issues here.

Firstly I am not sure if you realize this but the trade you took of the daily BEOB was'nt A+. The location was pretty much ok (50 fib and trendline confluence), the scary part was the 133 price level, notice the large wicks price gave off this region (points 1 and 2 on the first chart), when you see such "to the pip" support and resistance you've got to be VERY careful when trading into them, the BEOB break was headed straight for this region...fortunately for you price did break the ppz this time and hurried down...

Ok so given that you did take the trade and it worked out fine too, you need to now be congragulated for hanging on to during all this noise, If that bullish pin bar later on did'nt set you off and you were sensible enough to wait for it to materialize properly before acting against your short you need to be applauded for

coming finally to the stop issue...

When I saw your chart first it struck me as to why you still have your stop at the opposite end of the BEOB, posts above mine already gave you some valid reasons for moving your stop to BE, infact Jim recommends you do this once your 30 pips up forgetting abt any R:R...yup that's right! 30 odd pips.

The logic behind this is simple and abovious that once the market gives ou a chance to see the green side of the trade, you just cannot let this turn into red! not if you're serious to maintain a decent profit:loss ratio for your trades.

Looking at this trade specifically you have more reasons to move your stop to BE than just the MM part, and the reasoning is on the second chart I attatched. once that 4H beob forms you know price "should" respect the blue ppz and if it does not you'll better get out with nothing rather than sit on your butts and......and....

On a more general note there are several ways you can manage your stop loss,

The ones I love to use are,

1) moving the stop to BE and taking some off at the first ppz, leaving the rest to run (this one's for A+ trades specially)

2) taking all of it off at the first ppz (when going against the trend, or when a brick wall is in the way or some upcoming major news release etc)

3) trail the stop beind ppzs on a lower tf...an example of such a technique is explained in the 3rd chart pertaining to your current short.

Regards,
Ghous.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd 4h.gif Size: 15 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd 4h stop.gif Size: 13 KB
I believe . . .
  • #26,830
  • Edited 4:20pm Apr 10, 2009 3:50pm | Edited 4:20pm
Quoting ghous
Hi Adam,

You need to know of a few very important issues here.

Firstly I am not sure if you realize this but the trade you took of the daily BEOB was'nt A+. The location was pretty much ok (50 fib and trendline confluence), the scary part was the 133 price level, notice the large wicks price gave off this region (points 1 and 2 on the first chart), when you see such "to the pip" support and resistance you've got to be VERY careful when trading into them, the BEOB break was headed straight for this region...fortunately...

Great post ghous. A lot of good stuff in there.

However, its a good idea when we offer our help of ones charted post to use the same feed they use. Case in point . . . Adam is using IBFX feed and the break of his BEOB is below the PPZ (1.3350ish which is more current and stronger then the 133.00) at 1.3321. When Price broke his BEOB it was a beauty.
So he wasn't trading into the brick wall, he was trading below it which is a better entry on the setup.

Also yesterday's BEOB would give confidence to stay in the trade and place my stop loss above the 1.3350 PPZ.
Attached Images
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #26,831
  • Apr 10, 2009 3:56pm Apr 10, 2009 3:56pm
We still can use ghous's feed (FxPro, I think) but we have to follow #4 on James16's "This is CRITICAL".
Attached Image
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #26,832
  • Apr 10, 2009 8:24pm Apr 10, 2009 8:24pm
Quoting albchr
My take is (and I'm learning here), assuming it actually does develop into a daily pin by days end, it's very short and I see some pretty good support areas right below it that I think would give it some trouble. I personally wouldn't take this one.
thks you guys , i won't trade that bar ,just wait and what happens .

Before coming here , I was always losing money,didn't know how the fx maket works and where it would go . Even somtimes I took a short trade when the price hit the heavy support . looking back,how stupid I was .

thks everyone here ,what I leared from this thread has made me earn some money now.But I know ,there still a lot to learn, loog way to success .I will keep learning & practising .
  • #26,833
  • Apr 11, 2009 12:22am Apr 11, 2009 12:22am
Hi all

Just a quick one. I know it's a bit off topic, but how do you post attachments as "Attached Thumbnails" instead of the "Attached Images" I usually get?

Cheers
Jellybean

P.S. Have a Happy Easter - 2 days holiday here
  • #26,834
  • Apr 11, 2009 3:10am Apr 11, 2009 3:10am
Quoting jarroo
Great post ghous. A lot of good stuff in there.

However, its a good idea when we offer our help of ones charted post to use the same feed they use. Case in point . . . Adam is using IBFX feed and the break of his BEOB is below the PPZ (1.3350ish which is more current and stronger then the 133.00) at 1.3321. When Price broke his BEOB it was a beauty.
So he wasn't trading into the brick wall, he was trading below it which is a better entry on the setup.

Also yesterday's BEOB would give confidence to stay in the trade and place my stop...
IBFX closed above 133 too, Jarroo, I have that brick wall around 133 so it would still be a trade straight into the brick wall....

But Yeah you're right, the feeds should be same when 2 charts are compared...thanks for the correction bro,

(below is the IBFX chart, and why I still wouldn't trade it...)

Regards,
Ghous.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: eu zommed.gif Size: 14 KB
I believe . . .
  • #26,835
  • Apr 11, 2009 3:43am Apr 11, 2009 3:43am
Quoting ghous
IBFX closed above 133 too, Jarroo, I have that brick wall around 133 so it would still be a trade straight into the brick wall....

But Yeah you're right, the feeds should be same when 2 charts are compared...thanks for the correction bro,

(below is the IBFX chart, and why I still wouldn't trade it...)

Regards,
Ghous.
I saw the 1.3350 as a stronger PPZ then the 133.00, as I mentioned in my post. A tight stop entry on the BEOB was a very strong break with no draw down.

I'm not saying that the 133.00 had no strength, it did as shown on the 4 hour chart. I just saw the 133.50 as more current, thus more strength.
Attached Images
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #26,836
  • Apr 11, 2009 3:53am Apr 11, 2009 3:53am
Quoting jarroo
Great post ghous. A lot of good stuff in there...
Excellent posts, both ghous & jarroo!
Keep them coming!

RM
  • #26,837
  • Apr 11, 2009 5:53am Apr 11, 2009 5:53am
Quoting onmyself
thks you guys , i won't trade that bar ,just wait and what happens .

Before coming here , I was always losing money,didn't know how the fx maket works and where it would go . Even somtimes I took a short trade when the price hit the heavy support . looking back,how stupid I was .

thks everyone here ,what I leared from this thread has made me earn some money now.But I know ,there still a lot to learn, loog way to success .I will keep learning & practising .
Don't be too hard on yourself. You weren't stupid at all, just inexperienced as I still am. In fact, your intelligence is to be....ed because you sought to find the answer of what's gone wrong. Nobody has all the answers especially at the start. You'll find as you go this is a never ending pursuit of learning more and more.

Even the experienced traders in here are constantly searching for, developing and testing new strategies to give themselves even more of an edge. Keep at it, stay positive, stay focused, learn the material here and treat this as a business and you'll do fine.

Like you, I have a long way to go. I've only begun to learn it and already there is a marked improvement in trading results.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #26,838
  • Apr 11, 2009 6:07am Apr 11, 2009 6:07am
Hi everyone!
Little bit off topic - is there any software, where is possible to load one currency historical data, go though it tick by tick and switch through weekly, daily and H4?

i know there is strategy tester in meta trader, but there is possible go through currency only in one time frame (you can't switch through them)...

The goal would be training skills like in real time trading....
  • #26,839
  • Apr 11, 2009 6:23am Apr 11, 2009 6:23am
Quoting initex
Hi everyone!
Little bit off topic - is there any software, where is possible to load one currency historical data, go though it tick by tick and switch through weekly, daily and H4?

i know there is strategy tester in meta trader, but there is possible go through currency only in one time frame (you can't switch through them)...

The goal would be training skills like in real time trading....
I've tried Forex Tester and it works "ok" but is rather costly (for me). Now I just use my MT4, scroll all the way back to the beginning of the data (around 1998 for most pairs) and then use the F12 key to advance one bar/candle at a time.

You can do this on any time frame and currency. It really helps me learn to "pick" setups, mentally place orders and then see where it goes.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #26,840
  • Apr 11, 2009 8:49am Apr 11, 2009 8:49am
Quoting jarroo
I saw the 1.3350 as a stronger PPZ then the 133.00, as I mentioned in my post. A tight stop entry on the BEOB was a very strong break with no draw down.

I'm not saying that the 133.00 had no strength, it did as shown on the 4 hour chart. I just saw the 133.50 as more current, thus more strength.
Hallo Jarroo,thanks for your beautiful explanation with Ghous....you handle with this stuff pretty good.
I'd like to ask you if you always adjust your PPZ at rounded numbers like 1.3300 or 1.3350?
I had this feeling looking at your post and i'd like you to clarify me this.

Cheers
Patience is essential
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