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Follow the trend!

  • #41
  • Apr 7, 2007 8:04pm Apr 7, 2007 8:04pm
Quoting cesarnc
I make a distinction between "trend" and "direction". For trend I keep myself tuned on the fundamentals behind each pair. For instance, USD is in a clear downtrend (check USD-index), while at this moment, GBP and EUR are biased up in the expectation of upcoming rate-hikes. In parallel, equity markets are getting back the losses of the big selloff during Chinese crisis, leading Yen to a downtrend, too.

In this picture, when GBPUSD, EURUSD, */JPY are falling (against the broader trend, for correction, profit taking, or whatever) I start building long inventories at every expected supports. While this direction doesn't reverse to the direction of the trend, I go for small pips scalping to manage drawdown (well IBFX allows long and short positions in the same pair)

By the time the direction is aligned with the trend, I go on adding longs and start taking profits with big pips only, until a huge resistance is reached, when I dump the rest.

Made 150 pips last time GJ fell and collected from 100-250 pips per lot when the pair resumed the trend.
great glimpse on how to catch big trends using fundamental & technical analysis. i see you've also included a bit on money management as well.

not to mention a little pat on the back. what a show off.
BAM BAM BOOM! -bravado
  • #42
  • Apr 7, 2007 9:46pm Apr 7, 2007 9:46pm
Trend following is probably the best way to trade. There are differant ways to trade the trend though. Depends on the time frame you use. If a person trades on 5 minute charts, there is not much reason to be looking at the weekly charts. Check the monthly charts first to see the long term trend. Then drop it down to the weekly charts. Once you can see there is a trend on a weekly chart, go to daily charts and look to see if an uptrend is dipping down to make for a good buy. If the daily charts are dipping down, then go to a 1 hr chart and look for a trade on the chart. When you do look for a trade on a 1 hr, look for the dips to buy and the peaks to sell.
JOHN 3:16
  • #43
  • Apr 8, 2007 8:34am Apr 8, 2007 8:34am
Quoting Dexis
I totally agree with you here, cause some time ago I was on that boat trying to invent something... well, it was not about inventions, it was more about making MORE money in LESS time, which over time results in losing everything.

A car can be priced million $ but it still runs on wheels , pop one wheel and you are not moving.
I have to agree with that. Patience is money itself. Lose patience, lose money.
  • #44
  • Apr 8, 2007 8:45am Apr 8, 2007 8:45am
Quoting superdezign
actually i drew that last trend line wrong.. its not a buy.. not a sell neither.. but that trend line i drew is broken (when drawn correctly you can see this)
superdesign.. what you draw is actually pretty good but base on my experiance the best trend line to draw is at H4 for GU not daily. For daily i just observe the pattern of CS.. try it:
  • #45
  • Apr 8, 2007 9:50am Apr 8, 2007 9:50am
Quoting FXSurfer
Thank you for your excellent reply, Narafa!
Any more recent charts or trades you would
like to share?

Have a great day!
FXS
Well, I don't keep a journal over here and usually nobody asks me about my trades...Actually I trade infrequently. My last trade was around 2 months ago...Anyway, if you want another chart, I would be glad to give you one that initiated my most recent trade, but let's keep the chart after the market opens....

The trade which was initiated a couple of days ago was shorting the USD/CAD pair for the medium term....Medium term means anywhere between 3 weeks to several months, although usually less than 3 months... Target lies at 1.1300 which if hit will give me around 300 pips in profit...


Thanks,

Nader
  • #46
  • Apr 8, 2007 10:50am Apr 8, 2007 10:50am
imho,simplicity is the key.
no fency strategy!! no fency indicator !! no shining light !! and so on.
my last trade was 2 weeks ago,and he is still going.
signal by the old and simple indicator adx and thats it !!!
enter at 24.00 (the begining of the new candle) s/l is the low of the previous day.
and thats it.
currently i'm 2 weeks in the trade the trade gave already 420 pips
the exit is when the next signal by the adx will aper.
thats all folks.
Attached Image
  • #47
  • Apr 8, 2007 1:12pm Apr 8, 2007 1:12pm
Quoting narafa
Well, I don't keep a journal over here and usually nobody asks me about my trades...Actually I trade infrequently. My last trade was around 2 months ago...Anyway, if you want another chart, I would be glad to give you one that initiated my most recent trade, but let's keep the chart after the market opens....

The trade which was initiated a couple of days ago was shorting the USD/CAD pair for the medium term....Medium term means anywhere between 3 weeks to several months, although usually less than 3 months... Target lies at 1.1300 which if hit will give me around 300 pips in profit...


Thanks,

Nader

That sounds great, Nader!
Your methodology using hand-drawn support and resistance lines,
hand-drawn trend and channel lines and trading breakouts using
your BRAIN as the "indicator" seems PERFECT for this thread!

Can I get a witness, fellow thread-goers!

RAGE AGAINST THE TRADING MACHINES!
(okay, that was probably uncalled-for )

FXS
  • #48
  • Apr 8, 2007 3:54pm Apr 8, 2007 3:54pm
Very interesting thread! I have been experimenting with simple systems that take advantage of the longer-term thread in a pair. I have actually found one that made over 8,000 pips in 2006 with no losses (GBPJPY) - the reason for no losses, however, is due to an extremely large (potential) stoploss. You are basically entering on a dip signal with your s/l 50 pips below the most recent, strong weekly trendline! I didn't figure it out exactly, but in 2006 when it did go negative it probably averaged about -200 to -300 pips, with one period of time down to about -550 pips. Psychologically this could be quite hard to work through as a trader, but on the upside, there are huge runs (500+) that you can take advantage of!

If anybody is interested, I will put something together & post it in the systems forum.

I am curious what the experienced traders (pros) here think - would you be comfortable with a large drawdown if you are pretty certain that it will go positive & rake in lots of pips in the end??

Let me know,

D.
  • #49
  • Apr 8, 2007 8:04pm Apr 8, 2007 8:04pm
You guys are really displaying good example of what patience really means. Waiting for days/weeks to get into a good trade shows great self-control, which is vital for traders.

This makes this thread unique from others.
  • #50
  • Apr 8, 2007 8:08pm Apr 8, 2007 8:08pm
Quoting Daemien
I am curious what the experienced traders (pros) here think - would you be comfortable with a large drawdown if you are pretty certain that it will go positive & rake in lots of pips in the end??

Let me know,

D.
since you asked.

if i knew for sure it will go positive, i wouldn't mind draw downs. just add more as it goes against you.
BAM BAM BOOM! -bravado
  • #51
  • Apr 8, 2007 8:34pm Apr 8, 2007 8:34pm
Quoting bravado
since you asked.

if i knew for sure it will go positive, i wouldn't mind draw downs. just add more as it goes against you.
yes yes, and if the swap is positive ,some call it carry trades.
just keep adding that postive generating pips. with this way, is it better if you add the equity and replace stop loss with hedge??
  • #52
  • Apr 8, 2007 9:33pm Apr 8, 2007 9:33pm
Quoting Gwan
yes yes, and if the swap is positive ,some call it carry trades.
just keep adding that postive generating pips. with this way, is it better if you add the equity and replace stop loss with hedge??
pro's unite!
BAM BAM BOOM! -bravado
  • #53
  • Apr 9, 2007 6:38am Apr 9, 2007 6:38am
Ok, so im trying to set a bunch of rules for trading with trend lines.. can anyone help me establish a set of these rules.

Im having trouble drawing trendlines as well.. sounds stupid and im probably making things harder than they are.. I could be drawing them right I just dont know how to play them..

any help would be greatly appreciated!!!

Dave
  • #54
  • Apr 9, 2007 7:12am Apr 9, 2007 7:12am
Quoting superdezign
Ok, so im trying to set a bunch of rules for trading with trend lines.. can anyone help me establish a set of these rules.

Im having trouble drawing trendlines as well.. sounds stupid and im probably making things harder than they are.. I could be drawing them right I just dont know how to play them..

any help would be greatly appreciated!!!

Dave
use this indicator with your metatrader. may give you some ideas.
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 SHI Channel.mq4   5 KB | 480 downloads
BAM BAM BOOM! -bravado
  • #55
  • Apr 9, 2007 10:31am Apr 9, 2007 10:31am
Quoting bravado
use this indicator with your metatrader. may give you some ideas.
thanks ill check it out.

also does anyone use horizontal SR lines with trend lines or will that conflict with the trend following philosophy?
  • #56
  • Apr 9, 2007 12:22pm Apr 9, 2007 12:22pm
very cool.. but how does the program construct those lines??? and what is the middle line?
I would like to be able to draw my own channels and trend lines so i can trade in other markets without metatrader, and its always better to understand why you are making the trades you make.. anyone know how this program works (see above)
  • #57
  • Apr 9, 2007 1:15pm Apr 9, 2007 1:15pm
Quoting superdezign
also does anyone use horizontal SR lines with trend lines or will that conflict with the trend following philosophy?
The more I trade, the more I value horizontal S/R levels over trendlines
  • #58
  • Apr 9, 2007 1:40pm Apr 9, 2007 1:40pm
I am new in these thing. Have been trading about 8 months.Just had real account for 2 months. Yes I like following the trend. So far never had any large loses as. I set a target for myself every day.After I achieved it I'm done for the day. I dont care afterward the chart goes up by 500 pips.Nothing to be sorry about. Dont have much indicator also.So far so good. Works for me!http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif
Start trading everyday with a simple mind, and everything seems very clear!
  • #59
  • Apr 9, 2007 2:06pm Apr 9, 2007 2:06pm
Just go with the flow and draw support/res. lines and you should be ok.
Can't be that hard can it? Take this 4h Eur/usd chart for an example.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd.jpg Size: 43 KB
  • #60
  • Edited 4:11pm Apr 9, 2007 3:14pm | Edited 4:11pm
Maybe im making this harder than it seems but how did you know at what angle to put the line after buy area one in order to find buy area two? its that i dont understand.

Quoting MackS10
Just go with the flow and draw support/res. lines and you should be ok.
Can't be that hard can it? Take this 4h Eur/usd chart for an example.
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