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Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading

  • #1,781
  • Apr 8, 2009 11:43am Apr 8, 2009 11:43am
'EURGBP
I hope the absence of posts on here about Monday's bar looking like a hammer means that everyone recognised it wasn't a hammer and more importantly, why it wasn't a hammer.'

Hi Strat
It wasn't a hammer because it had a 'wick' poking out of the top of the candle, the tail did look as though it was twice as long as the 'head' of the candle, but with the wick at the top, it's not a hammer. Nicole
  • #1,782
  • Apr 8, 2009 12:40pm Apr 8, 2009 12:40pm
Quoting FxPippy
'EURGBP

It wasn't a hammer because it had a 'wick' poking out of the top of the candle, the tail did look as though it was twice as long as the 'head' of the candle, but with the wick at the top, it's not a hammer. Nicole
Thats an inverted hammer, when the tail pokes out the top after a down move. Can't comment on the context of EURGBP as I'm cooking the dinner!!
  • #1,783
  • Edited 1:23pm Apr 8, 2009 12:51pm | Edited 1:23pm
Quoting Naws
Can you please remind me how to set up the boss ma's, I couldn't find it with quick search

If I draw that trendline from the closes in nov and feb it gets crossed by price several times which makes it irrelevant I think. The next highest trenline I have is drawn from lows of oct to feb although not directly on closes
Naws, I am VERY disappointed with you. First, you don't have your charts set up correctly (no BOSS MAs), second, you are too lazy to find it in the thread and third, and more important, you don't UNDERSTAND the mechanics.

So, once again, the two most important MAs on the Daily chart are:

20 EMA RED
50 SMA BLUE

We also need these on the BOSS chart but instead of toggling back and forth between the Daily and BOSS, we can put the BOSS MAs on our Daily chart.

The way we do this is:

The BOSS consists of FIVE Daily bars, therefore THEIR MAs are:

20 EMA x 5 = 100 EMA shown as red dotted line on my charts
50 SMA x 5 = 250 SMA shown as blue dotted line on my charts

With regard to TL, I suggested you might want to draw it from the swing low in Nov 08 through the swing low in Feb 09

See the charts attached on Apr 07 09 BEFORE the TL was drawn and today, APR 08 09 AFTER the TL was drawn.

Had you done this, you would have had a far better understanding of what was going on. You would have seen that the BOSS 20 has been supporting prices going back to Feb 2007. You should have also observed that the BOSS 20 has been supporting EURUSD since March this year which is VERY VALUABLE INFORMATION when trading EURGBP.

That TL I suggested you draw has been on my chart since Feb 10, 2009!!!!!!!!!!

Naws, this is not indicative of someone serious in building a trading career - you have lost focus!

You may wish to consider returning your bronze pick until such time as you are worthy of it again!
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurgbp apr 07 09 before tl.gif Size: 23 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurgbp apr 08 09 after tl.gif Size: 24 KB
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,784
  • Apr 8, 2009 1:00pm Apr 8, 2009 1:00pm
Quoting AminAS
Yeah, I was just thinking the same thing. Last candle close was on top of BOSS 20, and this candle may close below it. The trendline starting from last year has been broken cleanly, so I wouldn't touch the buy button with a 39 and a half foot pole. Like Dr. Joe said, buy when price goes up, sell when it goes down. Price is going down.

PS - Trendlines can be crossed a million times and will remain valid until a bar actually closes below or above (Depending on the TL). I'm not sure if this is what you were referring to or not, but thats my...
No need to answer, my response to Naws says it all
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,785
  • Apr 8, 2009 1:03pm Apr 8, 2009 1:03pm
Quoting bjohn34
Let me take a shot at this one. Have been away for a while. The just closed bar is a BEOB and almost a DHLC, both indicating continuing bear run. BUT if we trade it that way we are running into a trend line, S/R at .8950, BOSS 20 and a 61.8 FIB (Feb 10 to Mar 18) and the .9000 psych level. If somebody did play it short would need a SL of about 150 pips to clear the top of the big bull entry bar. Not me.

Looks like a good spot for a possible reversal and at this early point in the day an cute little pin bar may be forming. I will watch and wait...
Shanghai bj, you are improving in leaps and bounds - very good observation and correct analysis.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,786
  • Edited 1:20pm Apr 8, 2009 1:20pm | Edited 1:20pm
Quoting FxPippy
'EURGBP
I hope the absence of posts on here about Monday's bar looking like a hammer means that everyone recognised it wasn't a hammer and more importantly, why it wasn't a hammer.'

Hi Strat
It wasn't a hammer because it had a 'wick' poking out of the top of the candle, the tail did look as though it was twice as long as the 'head' of the candle, but with the wick at the top, it's not a hammer. Nicole
Nicole and Bloom and others too afraid to post!

Although it may look like Mr Bean's impersonation of a hammer, it is definitely NOT a hammer.

Bloom - an inverted hammer would be a "shooting star" - must be drinking too much vino while making dinner!

The "hammer - like" bar is too small relative to the previous bars to even be considered.

More important is it's POSITION.

It is NOT at the end of a downtrend - it is sideways

It is too far away from psycho 0.9000 to be considered "bouncing off support" - in other words, the sellers did not reach the point at which previous sellers were rejected and buyers came in.

The next bar, the BEOB, drove the prices down to that level where it stalled and then today, buyers came in.

Based on this, it would be a good thing for everyone to review these key reversal bars - shooting star and hammer
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,787
  • Apr 8, 2009 1:42pm Apr 8, 2009 1:42pm
Quoting strat
Naws, I am VERY disappointed with you. First, you don't have your charts set up correctly (no BOSS MAs), second, you are too lazy to find it in the thread and third, and more important, you don't UNDERSTAND the mechanics.
I already had this trendline on my chart, that chart looked like a mess because I wanted to show different trendlines to show how they can tell a different story depending on how you draw them

The addition of the BOSS EMA confirms my previous analysis that this is an area of high support, and looks like a bullish bar is forming but we will wait until close before making any decisions

I have also returned my pick
  • #1,788
  • Apr 8, 2009 2:18pm Apr 8, 2009 2:18pm
Quoting AminAS
Yeah, I was just thinking the same thing. Last candle close was on top of BOSS 20, and this candle may close below it. The trendline starting from last year has been broken cleanly...
Different data feeds may offer an explanation. This is the TL I drew on my chart. In this case I would think the previous support has turned resistance for today's bar. Mine closes in 1 hour 40 mins.

http://i40.tinypic.com/2hs16r8.gif
Bang.
  • #1,789
  • Apr 8, 2009 2:46pm Apr 8, 2009 2:46pm
Strat

What are your thoughts on looking for positions coming into bank holidays etc? Or weekends come to think of it? Or is it a case of price action and volume regardless?
  • #1,790
  • Apr 8, 2009 4:04pm Apr 8, 2009 4:04pm
Hi Strat

Ohhh...on my charts...
D Hammer (after previous day's doji indecsion bar) just closed at Swing Low touched S 131.00 psycho just a touch above 61.8% fib retracement from SL 30 March to SH 6 April and supported by 20 MA

Patience works...I just might take a long on this to catch the train north....Nicole
  • #1,791
  • Apr 8, 2009 4:15pm Apr 8, 2009 4:15pm
Quoting Bloom
Strat

What are your thoughts on looking for positions coming into bank holidays etc? Or weekends come to think of it? Or is it a case of price action and volume regardless?
The problems with trading during holidays are lack of volume and "skeleton" staff in the big boys. Lack of volume causes prices to be stagnant and directionless but the real problem is "unsupervised skeleton" staff at the big boys. Without supervision of their "head" traders, these guys can put through orders which may otherwise have been held for normal working hours, which can cause erratic moves in the market. Often times they will run stops just out of sheer boredom. If you pull up charts during holiday periods, especially the big ones, you can see long legged dojis all over the place.

I will not initiate positions during holiday periods and will tighten stops if I am holding substantial profits.

I will hold existing positions through weekends but generally do not like initiating new positions on a Friday unless it's a 'no brainer".
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,792
  • Apr 8, 2009 4:17pm Apr 8, 2009 4:17pm
Quoting FxPippy
Hi Strat

Ohhh...on my charts...
D Hammer (after previous day's doji indecsion bar) just closed at Swing Low touched S 131.00 psycho just a touch above 61.8% fib retracement from SL 30 March to SH 6 April and supported by 20 MA

Patience works...I just might take a long on this to catch the train north....Nicole
This seems like a good spot to get back in that uptrend, although there is some strong resistance overhead and the BOSS MA
  • #1,793
  • Apr 8, 2009 4:23pm Apr 8, 2009 4:23pm
Quoting FxPippy
Hi Strat

Ohhh...on my charts...
D Hammer (after previous day's doji indecsion bar) just closed at Swing Low touched S 131.00 psycho just a touch above 61.8% fib retracement from SL 30 March to SH 6 April and supported by 20 MA

Patience works...I just might take a long on this to catch the train north....Nicole
I've also been looking to get back with EURJPY but am always nervous about trading someone again who has given me so much (she wants it back from me!). I was looking long but not off the bar on my data as it is a neutral doji. Everything else is in it's favour - potential swing bottom held at support, cycle bottoming, trend up, momentum up, close at 50% fib - if only it didn't have that long wick on my data.

Oh well, there is always another trade somewhere else.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,794
  • Apr 8, 2009 4:29pm Apr 8, 2009 4:29pm
Remember Baba G's Quiz?

See anything similar in GBPUSD?
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,795
  • Apr 8, 2009 4:33pm Apr 8, 2009 4:33pm
Well it looks to me like the JPY pairs are setting up to test existing highs or, maybe have a go at new highs.

Check YOUR charts first before doing anything AND make sure you follow the BOSS.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,796
  • Apr 8, 2009 4:47pm Apr 8, 2009 4:47pm
Hi This is my chart so you can see..
Pros - all that I have said already and Strat
Cons - SL 270 pips -however combined with the strong Pros and confluence and strong trend I am happy to accept the risk. The 137 area was last tested in oct 08 where it came down from 140.

The first target is 136 & move stop to (not quite BE) it's 228 pips.
The second target is 137.50 another 150.
Overall 378 pips. Not a brilliant R:R unless she carries on moving towards 140. similar risk to earlier trades on the pair.

Cheers Nicole
P.s. will be checking out all the others to see what else is on the table, then I'll make a decision based on the best looking setup (if there are any others).
Attached Image
  • #1,797
  • Apr 8, 2009 4:54pm Apr 8, 2009 4:54pm
...check out NZDJPY. Shadow pierced 50% fib and PPZ at 57. Close could do with being higher so i won't take it but if you're feeling adventurous the R/R ain't too bad.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 08.04.09 nzdjpy.jpg Size: 75 KB


(Sorry Strat, i've gone naked)
  • #1,798
  • Apr 8, 2009 4:55pm Apr 8, 2009 4:55pm
It seems to be all happening tonight..a frieght train with goodies to select from....checking all my charts, writing them all down with risk etc to assess.

yep I see the IB, off fib, supported by Boss 20 and Daily 20 50 a possible retrace to 149.50/150 area...

Nicole
  • #1,799
  • Edited 5:03pm Apr 8, 2009 5:02pm | Edited 5:03pm
Don't the Yen pairs tend to be led by USDJPY?

This doesn't look like it'll make new highs to me (at least not over the next few days). I'd expect a little IB (harami?) to form tomorrow which may give a nice discounted entry as the R/R on this doesn't tempt me (150 pip SL when first resistance is only 100 or so away)...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 08.04.09 usdjpy.jpg Size: 70 KB
  • #1,800
  • Apr 8, 2009 5:07pm Apr 8, 2009 5:07pm
Quoting AstonDan
...check out NZDJPY. Shadow pierced 50% fib and PPZ at 57. Close could do with being higher so i won't take it but if you're feeling adventurous the R/R ain't too bad.

Attachment

(Sorry Strat, i've gone naked)
Stop orders already in place, Dan!

Not only naked but bars as well! You have obviously been having too much of Baba G's tea, toast and biscuits!

No problem, Dan, whatever works best for you is what matters
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
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