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Trading aud/nzd successfully

  • #1,741
  • Apr 4, 2009 10:37pm Apr 4, 2009 10:37pm
Quoting Verto
I don't think anything will change, spread wise.
I agree. Making 5 digit only help ibfx to hit our SL or miss our TP with more precision than before
  • #1,742
  • Apr 4, 2009 11:27pm Apr 4, 2009 11:27pm
Quoting forexisfx
I agree. Making 5 digit only help ibfx to hit our SL or miss our TP with more precision than before
Exactly. I was telling white on skype how 14.9 will now be the low of the spread, haha.

I guess only time will tell. Who knows... I'm rather doubtful we will see thing improve because they are making tons of $$$.
  • #1,743
  • Apr 5, 2009 6:10pm Apr 5, 2009 6:10pm
Tues is Aud interest rate day so be very wary of trading that day.

Bob
  • #1,744
  • Apr 5, 2009 6:14pm Apr 5, 2009 6:14pm
Quoting der stratege
hello guys,

many of you heart about the change at ibfx. they'll go 5digit at the 12th april with their demoservers and at 17th may with their liveservers. i hope the spread problem will be solved and we could trade this method like in the last year.

nice weekend
5 digit spread is just an advertising gimmick. What is the difference money wise between .018 and .02. Its nothing, but it makes it sound like your getting a better deal. The more you can confuse the consumer the better chance you have of taking their money. It is like your credit card statement, you buy an item and some of the cost goes on credit charge and some on cash advance and they charge you more for cash advance but they advertise the lower rate for the charge. Anybody figure out those rules????
  • #1,745
  • Apr 5, 2009 10:32pm Apr 5, 2009 10:32pm
Quoting nanningbob
Tues is Aud interest rate day so be very wary of trading that day.

Bob
Time again and again i learn my lesson we should respect the news. I gonna practice when not to trade. I think i will make more money learning when not to trade.
  • #1,746
  • Apr 7, 2009 12:34am Apr 7, 2009 12:34am
[quote= 320.000% Return on Investment in little over two months

If you look at parts of the Results they don't look that spectacular. Only
smaller winning trades and strings off losers every once awhile.[/quote]

Tj,

I am new here, but before you shake your head and say "oh, not again...", I HAVE read this entire thread (it only took me 16 hours), so I am up on the history.

I would like to ask you a favor. Could you help to start me up on your favorite version of a 30x20 system (or variant?) that is relatively safe to trade on the AUDNZD? (Yes I understand, nothing with the word Martingale is safe, that is why I used the word relative.). But I am already trading live this currency pair, so I am familiar with it, and I noticed you are trading a demo long term on it, so your setting must be relatively safe.
I have looked some of your post, but in some you were on 5M chart, in other 1H, and you also moved away from the original 30x20.

So if you could send me a post for a link and gave me a setting modification, I would be on my way and I would really appreciate it. I am on FXDD, i.e., 4 digit broker.

Thanks for your generous help.
explorer
  • #1,747
  • Edited 3:42am Apr 7, 2009 1:03am | Edited 3:42am
I'm using the regular 30x20 on 1H for live trading. 5 Level 200 Pip SL.
That doesn't give you any safety on its own. The safety comes from proper MM Settings and knowing when to switch the EA of.
You have to calculate the initial lotsize yourself depending on how much you want to risk incase of a Stopout. No one should go live with this until he is able to calculate that. If he really knows what the 30x20 is doing it shouldn't be to hard. If not, it only shows that it is to dangerous due to lack of knowledge.

Also one question you have to be able to answer yourself is: Why 5 Levels? Why not 3 or 6?
I've seen many people blow their live accounts with this simply because the had no clue how
the parameters influence the risk and the profitability and how to limit your risk. They just thought
they have to turn it on for instant millions -> BOOM Margin Call. If you calculate the settings correctely
it is impossible to get a margin call.
  • #1,748
  • Apr 7, 2009 11:35pm Apr 7, 2009 11:35pm
Thanks Tj,

I will start to set it up today. But I forgot to ask, which version of the Frostcall spreadsheet do you use for your experimentation? There was enough modification on that one that I have to ask this, so when I ask question later, we don't compare apple to orange.

thanks for your kind help, explorer
  • #1,749
  • Edited 6:38am Apr 8, 2009 2:28am | Edited 6:38am
I never used the excel spreadsheet I used pen & papper and a handheld calculator. I like to do things on my own.

Only thing you have to know.

Profit/Loss = Lots * Pip Value * Pips

The lotsize is multiplied for each new level and all orders are closed at the first stop. So the acutall Stop for every new level gets smaller by the amount of pips you have between each level.
  • #1,750
  • Apr 8, 2009 6:49am Apr 8, 2009 6:49am
I use this version for calculations. Not perfect but close enough.
Attached File(s)
File Type: xls FrostCall ver. 5.0.xls   28 KB | 324 downloads
  • #1,751
  • Apr 8, 2009 7:44am Apr 8, 2009 7:44am
Hi Tjpld
with ref to post #1747, I had 2x$3000 demo's blown and now learning this valuable lesson, any advice on how to fast track in gaining this knowledge.
Oh, I have both 5M and 1H running default settings on the same account. Switched off the H1 for now.
  • #1,752
  • Apr 9, 2009 1:17am Apr 9, 2009 1:17am
Quoting Tjpld
I never used the excel spreadsheet I used pen & papper and a handheld calculator. I like to do things on my own.

Only thing you have to know.

Profit/Loss = Lots * Pip Value * Pips

The lotsize is multiplied for each new level and all orders are closed at the first stop. So the actual Stop for every new level gets smaller by the amount of pips you have between each level.
Thanks Tj,

What lot size multiplier do you use? The 1.8 original?

And are you still using the "spread protection" per your post #1663?

Thanks NanningBob,

I will study the spreadsheet carefully. And I am grateful your extensive work with the grids. I truly enjoyed every post of yours.

explorer
  • #1,753
  • Apr 9, 2009 1:53am Apr 9, 2009 1:53am
Quoting Explorer3333
Thanks Tj,

What lot size multiplier do you use? The 1.8 original?

And are you still using the "spread protection" per your post #1663?

Thanks NanningBob,

I will study the spreadsheet carefully. And I am grateful your extensive work with the grids. I truly enjoyed every post of yours.

explorer

Yes I use 1.8 and Spread Protection.

What I don't like about the sheet is that you can't set a Max Loss and solve for X. That's why I do it manually.
  • #1,754
  • Edited 9:47am Apr 12, 2009 8:58am | Edited 9:47am
Quoting nanningbob
I use this version for calculations. Not perfect but close enough.
I am working through diligently the FrostCall v5 spreadsheet. I set it up to simulate the 30x20 strategy and on a piece of paper I am trying graphically draw up the calculated scenarios.

The following 30x20 inputs were used:

Multiplier: 1.8
TakeProfit: 30
Pips: 20
MaxTrades: 5
Lotsize: 0.1
Stoploss: 200

Everything went fine until I got to the Drawdown column. I assume the Drawdown column means "temporary drawdown". So when the Depth 1 trade goes -80 pips against us then turns around and exits on a 30 pips profit target with an overall -50 pips loss, then I assume that the temporary drawdown column accounts for the -80 pips segment of that trade. So if a pip is 10c, then the profit column is -$5 (an that is correct in the spreadsheet), but the Drawdown column supposed to be -$8 (not the -$10 that is in the spreadsheet.) Am I understanding this correctly or someone has a better explanation?

I am sorry for splitting hairs, but I am taking to heart Tj's advice:

Quote
You have to calculate the initial lotsize yourself depending on how much you want to risk in case of a Stopout. No one should go live with this until he is able to calculate that. If he really knows what the 30x20 is doing it shouldn't be to hard. If not, it only shows that it is to dangerous due to lack of knowledge.
So if someone can explain with words the exact meaning of Drawdown column then I could proceed further with my "exploration".

Happy Easter, explorer

EDIT: NEVER MIND, I FOUND THE 20 MISSING PIPS. I FORGOT TO ASSUME THAT THE LAST LEVEL CAN GO AGAINST ME 20 MORE PIPS BEFORE IT TURNS AROUND AND EXITS AT 30 PIPS PROFIT. SO NOW I UNDERSTAND, THE DEPTH 1 TRADE FIRST CAN GO AGAINST ME 100 PIPS ON THE SPREADSHEET BEFORE IT TURNS AROUND AND EXIT AT 30 PIPS PROFIT. WHAT OF COURSE IS TECHNICALLY NOT CORRECT BECAUSE IT DISCOUNTS THE FACT, THAT PRICE CAN GO NEAR THE STOPLOSS AND TURN AROUND THERE. BUT I ASSUME THE DD@STOPLOSS TAKES CARE OF THAT. (Conclusion: Too many Easter eggs for breakfast slows down the brain.)
  • #1,755
  • Edited 11:56pm Apr 12, 2009 6:30pm | Edited 11:56pm
Tj,

The Excel spreadsheet and the hand calculations are fully under control now.
I am able to calculate/understand the modeling fully now.

Next question:

When you say...
Quote
What I don't like about the sheet is that you can't set a Max Loss and solve for X
...what do you mean exactly? Do you mean to set a Max DD as % of Account Balance and optimize everything else for that? And what stoploss do you run your 30x20, 150 pips default or 200 pips. I recall to see both values.

Another thing I would like to understand, how do you backtest your EA? Do you use "90%" or "99%" modeling quality or don't care (50%)? Whose data do you use? Just need a little help to jump start my testing efforts.

thanks a lot,
explorer
  • #1,756
  • Apr 13, 2009 12:10am Apr 13, 2009 12:10am
Quoting Explorer3333
Tj,

The Excel spreadsheet and the hand calculations are fully under control now.
I am able to calculate/understand the modeling fully now.

Next question:

When you say......
Back testing gives you inaccurate data. We dont hold trades over the weekend and we avoid big news stories and you cant use the backtester like that. So it will give you a general idea but it is not accurate data. It also doesnt give you the changing spreads that happen during a session. So I think many people may have developed decent EAs but threw them out not realizing how in accurate backtesting can be.
  • #1,757
  • Apr 13, 2009 1:52am Apr 13, 2009 1:52am
Quoting Explorer3333
Tj,

The Excel spreadsheet and the hand calculations are fully under control now.
I am able to calculate/understand the modeling fully now.

Next question:

When you say......
What I mean is that I don't want e.g more than 10% of my account to vanish incase of a stopout. If your account size is 1000 USD there is exactly one Lotsize that will do this with the different parameters that we are using. To get this lotsize i have to solve an equation.

Everything nanningbob said about the backtester is true. When you start your test it takes the current spread of the pair. If you test one week ends you will test with a huge market close spread of 38 probably which will dramatically effect performance. And testing it when the spread is around 14 is not acurate either because it will get way bigger over Asian Session.
The most important thing is to know when to turn the EA of that alone renders the backtester useless.
  • #1,758
  • Apr 14, 2009 12:20am Apr 14, 2009 12:20am
Quoting Tjpld
Everything nanningbob said about the backtester is true. When you start your test it takes the current spread of the pair. If you test one week ends you will test with a huge market close spread of 38 probably which will dramatically effect performance. And testing it when the spread is around 14 is not acurate either because it will get way bigger over Asian Session.
The most important thing is to know when to turn the EA of that alone renders the backtester useless.
Tj and NaningBoy,

Thanks for the warning, but I think after owning/using various expensive testing software for years, I understand their limitation. I just don't understand the limitations of the Strategy Tester (yet). I have certainly observed the differences between your testing methods, NanningBoy avoiding news and weekend, Tj testing through thick and thin. Since I have a quiet busy engineering job daytime, I have to follow Tj's lead, i.e., select a risk setting that allows only very occasional blow-up, and mitigate that risk by frequent removal of the profit and transfer it to a safer account.

As far as spread, I certainly baffled if any of you trading the IBFX live, since FXDD has a fairly steady 17pips spread, while the IBFX spread is all over. Since I am already familiar with the AUDNZD on FXDD, the spread doesn't bother me.

Having said all that, I still would like to duplicate a chart like yours Tj on pg 105, #1570. Do you mind to offer any help, or want me to struggle through it?

Cheers, explorer
  • #1,759
  • Apr 14, 2009 3:26am Apr 14, 2009 3:26am
Quoting Explorer3333
Tj and NaningBoy,

Having said all that, I still would like to duplicate a chart like yours Tj on pg 105, #1570. Do you mind to offer any help, or want me to struggle through it?

Cheers, explorer
I'd not recommend you to duplicate that. The past weeks have been very different from the weeks where I did 1800% in about a month. Price never moved 250++ Pips in one direction without retracing during that time. Fortunately I learned to stay away from certain news.
I was risking 65% of the account all the time during that period. Not something I'd recommend someone that is just starting with this EA.

Limit yourself to 5% DD incase of a Stopout and see what you can get.
It might be better to turn the MM Function of and trade fixed lots when you run the risk of getting stopped out 3 times in 3 weeks. If you have the MM Function on it's like 3 steps forward one huge step backwards. (If that happens to often and the EA can't recover during the meantime you won't gain anything). If you turn it of it should more be like 3 steps forward 1 step backwards.
  • #1,760
  • Apr 14, 2009 4:08am Apr 14, 2009 4:08am
Quoting Explorer3333
Tj and NaningBoy,

Thanks for the warning, but I think after owning/using various expensive testing software for years, I understand their limitation. I just don't understand the limitations of the Strategy Tester (yet). I have certainly observed the differences between your testing methods, NanningBoy avoiding news and weekend, Tj testing through thick and thin. Since I have a quiet busy engineering job daytime, I have to follow Tj's lead, i.e., select a risk setting that allows only very occasional blow-up, and mitigate that risk by frequent removal...
Another limitation of the strategy tester is the farther back in time you go the bigger the Time Frame it uses for its results. This means in longer TF backtests it can miss retracements and reentries that would happen live but be missed by the back tester.
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