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Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading

  • #1,761
  • Apr 7, 2009 5:00pm Apr 7, 2009 5:00pm
I hope the absence of posts on here about Monday's bar looking like a hammer means that everyone recognised it wasn't a hammer and more importantly, why it wasn't a hammer.

I saw a few posts on other threads where it was described as a hammer and to take long positions off it.

Also notice where today's bar closed and what we should do with it.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,762
  • Apr 7, 2009 5:08pm Apr 7, 2009 5:08pm
WoW what a great response...amazing.Right what did we learn?

First and most importantly Strats comments on feeds.You must i mean MUST play your bars as you see them.Dont worry newbies thats just a standard.Like her Majesty on the pound coin,dont qustion it just go with it.

So for Strat and Elitejets there was no pin....so no trade....the end.

The next thing i wanted to point out is the power and glory of price action.

Here we are with a long bias forming,big boss brake long,weekly buob engaged and POW out of nowhere a beautiful pin south....and it did all she was gonna do.

Now imagine the power if that directional bar was pointing the other way.......now theres a thought.....

In regards the other action before todays bar.FXPippys chart sang a sweet song of my plan around that action BUT it was double news death so i had to let that go.....If there had been no news i would have done what she said.Of course i have no idea how the trade developed so i have no idea how my plan would of come out but she had a good handle and so did Lance........nice

Aminas hit it on the head i just played the bar......old school PASR thats all.

BUT NO, i hear screams of "250 pip stop for 40ish pips,how terrible"....."how un pro of him".........dudes the moral of the story as always is PRICE ACTION IS KING.

Yes i had reverse R n R but there was no risk....cause it was always gonna do that."But how does he know" practice,practice,practice.

I see Swami handed out some tea and toast...thats fun.Now at some point it would be nice for him to show you what he did on it(cadyen).Different approach different %r same trade......thats what i love about trading,as many eyes that there are, as many ways to play.

Naws sorry bro i could see you were confused.....but i coudnt give the game away.......


My friends i hope you had fun and we all opened our minds a little.......

Anyway back to work....gimme some bars!!! Im starving.............g
  • #1,763
  • Apr 7, 2009 5:34pm Apr 7, 2009 5:34pm
Quoting el_duende
EUR/AUD

Im looking at daily chart and see that EUR/AUD is at a strong support level. I am considering going long here 1.8575 and then checking to see what price does at this level to see wether to keep this trade going. Placing long here I can have quite a short stop if trade doesnt go my way. Question is would you place a long at support now or wait for PA to confirm the entry but get in at a higher price?
First, el duende, you have identified a strong support level which turned price around on the last couple of occasions - the question is - do you want to gamble on this? This all depends on your aversion to risk. You could gamble and place your long order or you could take a safer, and lower risk option of waiting for price action to confirm an entry.

You have also drawn a coil with your trend lines which, if the coil is valid and projecting the target holds, should see prices down around 1.7000ish. This would mean that all you would be looking for off this support is a bounce/retrace.

How you trade is up to you but there is no decision for me - I don't like losing so I am prepared to wait. Yes, I may lose 50 pips or so profit but that is FAR BETTER than getting hit with a 50 pips or so LOSS.

Remember to think like a Professional - they think of how much they can LOSE rather than how much will they win.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,764
  • Apr 7, 2009 6:28pm Apr 7, 2009 6:28pm
Quoting strat
As I have stated before, I use Sunday bars in my analysis and yes, I know I'm in the minority BUT it works for me. Since Asian trading on "their" pairs (JPY) is becoming more significant and not just the "meat" for London to retrace, I believe more and more traders will consider the impact of Sunday bars. My logic is that Asian trading, especially on their pairs is just as significant on Sunday as it is on any other day of the week. I even take it one step further in that, because it is a "separate" day, it tells me the thinking and...
What a great post......and what a nice set up on your chart.I dont get sunday bars on my feed so i have never played them but "if it aint broke dont fix it".......As a Certified Trainer i say "back to sunday school for you pal".....wicked............g

Swamis got this whole "gap" trading thing going,you should shout him up.....g
  • #1,765
  • Apr 7, 2009 7:16pm Apr 7, 2009 7:16pm
Daily BEEB just closed above TL.

Enter long at 1.692 which is above high of BEEB and also above minor overhead resistance.

SL at low of BEEB.

TP at major resistance at 1.745

Would this be a viable trade or would you wait for PA clear of the congestion area?
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  • #1,766
  • Apr 7, 2009 8:01pm Apr 7, 2009 8:01pm
Quoting Baba G

BUT NO, i hear screams of "250 pip stop for 40ish pips,how terrible"....."how un pro of him".........dudes the moral of the story as always is PRICE ACTION IS KING.

Yes i had reverse R n R but there was no risk....cause it was always gonna do that."But how does he know" practice,practice,practice.
Amen to that!

(Back to lurking)
I'm pretty much done with all this ...
  • #1,767
  • Apr 7, 2009 8:55pm Apr 7, 2009 8:55pm
Quoting wooli
Daily BEEB just closed above TL.

Enter long at 1.692 which is above high of BEEB and also above minor overhead resistance.

SL at low of BEEB.

TP at major resistance at 1.745

Would this be a viable trade or would you wait for PA clear of the congestion area?
See the longish wick on that BEEB? That is price being rejected by the strong resistance which rejected prices in the past. You need to see a strong close above that resistance before going long BUT more important, you need to see that price can hold above the BOSS 20. Also, this is a counter trend trade. Why not wait for bearish PA and trade with the trend?
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,768
  • Edited 9:01pm Apr 7, 2009 8:58pm | Edited 9:01pm
Amin,

Always follow PA IN THE DIRECTION OF THE TREND. The latest candle/bar supercedes the previous bar because it is THE LATEST price action.

IF IN DOUBT, STAY OUT

NEVER SECOND GUESS A TRADE - IT IS TOO COSTLY

What happened to your post? You deleted it as I was answering it!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,769
  • Apr 7, 2009 8:59pm Apr 7, 2009 8:59pm
Quoting wooli
Daily BEEB just closed above TL.

Enter long at 1.692 which is above high of BEEB and also above minor overhead resistance.
I have a question. If a BEEB forms, like the one on GBPCHF, and gets followed by a BUOB, does the BUOB engulfing the BEEB become a more prominent signal of trend continuation? If a BEEB forms, and the gets BUOB'ed, does that mean longs are more likely?

PS - Strat just answered this post in the post directly above this one... I deleted this guy and reposted so I could get the signature in. Also, the trendline you drew wooli is a little random, in my opinion. You didn't start it on a significant high, more like on a congestion area.
Bang.
  • #1,770
  • Apr 7, 2009 9:08pm Apr 7, 2009 9:08pm
Quoting AminAS
I have a question. If a BEEB forms, like the one on GBPCHF, and gets followed by a BUOB, does the BUOB engulfing the BEEB become a more prominent signal of trend continuation? If a BEEB forms, and the gets BUOB'ed, does that mean longs are more likely?

PS - Strat just answered this post in the post directly above this one... I deleted this guy and reposted so I could get the signature in. Also, the trendline you drew wooli is a little random, in my opinion. You didn't start it on a significant high, more like on a congestion area.
Good observation on the TL, young man. It needs to be drawn from swing highs in downtrends and swing lows in uptrends.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,771
  • Apr 7, 2009 10:33pm Apr 7, 2009 10:33pm
Quoting strat

Also notice where today's bar closed and what we should do with it.
The price pushed lower and closed below the primary trendline breaking out of the triangle formation

I drew a few trendlines to show that it is an art, not a science so depending on how you draw them they can tell you different things

The apparent breaking out of the triangle might urge someone to go short, however we are facing right into an are of previous congestion which indicates support. We also have confluence with the 61 fib level.

I will look for bullish PA to indicate a bounce off this level

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  • #1,772
  • Apr 8, 2009 12:12am Apr 8, 2009 12:12am
Quoting Naws
The price pushed lower and closed below the primary trendline breaking out of the triangle formation

I drew a few trendlines to show that it is an art, not a science so depending on how you draw them they can tell you different things

The apparent breaking out of the triangle might urge someone to go short, however we are facing right into an are of previous congestion which indicates support. We also have confluence with the 61 fib level.

I will look for bullish PA to indicate a bounce off this level

Attachment
You might want to put your BOSS MAs on your charts and you might want to draw a TL from the swing lows in Nov 08 through the swing lows in Feb 09 to see if they tell you anything
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,773
  • Apr 8, 2009 12:30am Apr 8, 2009 12:30am
Can you please remind me how to set up the boss ma's, I couldn't find it with quick search

If I draw that trendline from the closes in nov and feb it gets crossed by price several times which makes it irrelevant I think. The next highest trenline I have is drawn from lows of oct to feb although not directly on closes
  • #1,774
  • Apr 8, 2009 12:30am Apr 8, 2009 12:30am
Quoting strat
You might want to put your BOSS MAs on your charts and you might want to draw a TL from the swing lows in Nov 08 through the swing lows in Feb 09 to see if they tell you anything
Yeah, I was just thinking the same thing. Last candle close was on top of BOSS 20, and this candle may close below it. The trendline starting from last year has been broken cleanly, so I wouldn't touch the buy button with a 39 and a half foot pole. Like Dr. Joe said, buy when price goes up, sell when it goes down. Price is going down.

PS - Trendlines can be crossed a million times and will remain valid until a bar actually closes below or above (Depending on the TL). I'm not sure if this is what you were referring to or not, but thats my take on it.
Bang.
  • #1,775
  • Apr 8, 2009 1:00am Apr 8, 2009 1:00am
Quoting Naws

I will look for bullish PA to indicate a bounce off this level
I believe EURGBP is one of the most tradable pairs based on picture perfect S/R lines, some long term TLs (the recent up TL has been drawn by using close prices) and of course PA respecting those S/R and TLs.

Just have a look at the charts I am attaching and they are self-explanatory, IMO.

Re. recent situation, a short trade between 0.9450-0.9500 R zone and 0.9150 S zone was a good one. You could TP around 0.9150 and wait for PA at that level, if your exit strategy is based on predetermined TP levels (if so, you can reenter after breaking 0.9150, based on PA). If not, then you could wait PA again, but this time to see if 0.9150 S survives. Seeing it didn't you could bring your exit level behind 0.9150 and still running the short trade. There is also a recent downward TL not shown on attachments, so you can also exit your short if that TL is broken with PA. Because that would mean a retracement until up TL and maybe further (I say "maybe further", because bigger picture still tells me the trend direction is up until 0.8650 level is broken downward).

If you are trading lower tf like H4, you can also see a recent Head and Shoulders which has 0.9150 neckline and 0.8800 target.

I believe these charts prove again why Strat named this thread and his strategy as "Stress Free". If you put your S/R lines in correct places and read PA around those levels, you don't need too many tools to trade profitably. All you need to do is to plan your trade and be patient while you are in. Though trading like this may be boring for some, you will be rewarded more than you can imagine.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,776
  • Apr 8, 2009 2:11am Apr 8, 2009 2:11am
Quoting Baba G
OOOooo its heating up.........

Hapasasa....the trade your looking at is a ticket i had weeks ago,but took off for news day cra8....more recent....
Baba G - I can't figure out what you mean here. I see on FxPippy's chart, she marked in "Long on the break here", which is where I meant the entry would be.

If you were referring to any one of the bars in the blue box, to me anyway, it looks like for an hour long trade on a daily bar there was more than one likely trade.

I am well aware that as I have not read through and absorbed what is on the thread there must be clues or indications which are not (yet) obvious to me.
I look forward to the next quiz.
  • #1,777
  • Edited 2:57am Apr 8, 2009 2:47am | Edited 2:57am
Quoting strat
I hope the absence of posts on here about Monday's bar looking like a hammer means that everyone recognised it wasn't a hammer and more importantly, why it wasn't a hammer.

I saw a few posts on other threads where it was described as a hammer and to take long positions off it.

Also notice where today's bar closed and what we should do with it.

Let me take a shot at this one. Have been away for a while. The just closed bar is a BEOB and almost a DHLC, both indicating continuing bear run. BUT if we trade it that way we are running into a trend line, S/R at .8950, BOSS 20 and a 61.8 FIB (Feb 10 to Mar 18) and the .9000 psych level. If somebody did play it short would need a SL of about 150 pips to clear the top of the big bull entry bar. Not me.

Looks like a good spot for a possible reversal and at this early point in the day an cute little pin bar may be forming. I will watch and wait and see what the boys(this is the non-gender specific term boy) in London and NY do.
"Money is easy to make, but hard to keep" - FWV 1975
  • #1,778
  • Edited 6:36am Apr 8, 2009 6:25am | Edited 6:36am
Yes comin to you live and direct from your own workstation.......its the much talked about "nice cuppa tea"Awards.

We have a star studed panel of experts as judges. let me intoroduce you to them.

Strat: That ol rock n roller of FX,who has lost over 100k live and sounds like he is still looking for the ice when it comes to the oil markets.

Next we have Baba G:After a long time in the wilderness is still looking to get off with the queen while the kings not looking......dirty perv.

With special guest Swami S:the magic man of the james 16 group,yes he is strange yes he is crazy and yes he is here!!!

Now to the bars!!!!!

The first award is for a nice chart and plan,this goes to............FXPIPPY!!!!
The second award for hitting it on the head is........LANCE and AMINAS!!!
The third award is to..... NAWS!!!!for seeing the terrible risk reward ratio and for determination.....
AND the best lurker goes to.......HAPASASA!!!!!!! as he/ she commented on what FXPIPPY had posted first!!!!!
Come and get your tea,toast and a bikky!!!!!!!.........wait whats this Strat has just awarded bronze picks all round,oh gosh its going crazy here!!!!!!!

So on that note ladies and gentlemen is time to say goodnight and thankyou....

First of all to Priceaction in association with support and risistance and to the FF for making this evening possible.....

This has been a "Strats long term stress free production"....make sure you tune in to the next...................quiz time!!!!...........fun
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,779
  • Apr 8, 2009 7:19am Apr 8, 2009 7:19am
Now that's fancy tea and toast.
  • #1,780
  • Apr 8, 2009 7:25am Apr 8, 2009 7:25am
Hi Baga G

Thanks for the feedback on the plan ... also, like Strat says, these quiz questions on charts are excellent for us all, keep them coming when you can Nicole
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