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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #26,521
  • Apr 8, 2009 5:02am Apr 8, 2009 5:02am
Quoting albchr
Good morning everyone,

Been watching the EU 4H for a couple hours now. Decided to jump in off the last "little" pin. Looking for the 3300ish area. Any thoughts? And oh, also for my future edification, (and...lol) an after thought, would getting into a buy while below the 150 EMA have been a...um....stupid move?
More important than the ema imho, you are buying into a PZ to the left and the pin nose is also a bit small. I would skip this if I was trading 4hr.
Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
  • #26,522
  • Apr 8, 2009 5:03am Apr 8, 2009 5:03am
  •  krue
  • | Joined Mar 2008 | Status: finger scares cat, power of illusio | 410 Posts
Hey, Ghous,

your analysis is very interesting. regarding the topic of bias and anticipatory,I see them differently. bias is meant to me a habit, by which some trader only feel comfortable to take long position, for instance. when getting into a view as to the trend direction, I think it is anticipatory. so, I'd like to differentiate these two concepts, if I may.

what puzzles me is what might make a trader to take certain position, say long, without an expectation? when one feel there be a high probability of going north, then, I would say he/she is anticipating the event to occur in the direction of probability, this drives his/her decision making process in pulling the trigger. I understand so far so much about this point,otherwise, I would feel totally directionless,therefore, don't know how to place an order. But, I'd like to see how your trading develops upon an event without any expectation, coz I would like to try and see the difference. that is very interesting.

I don't remember where I read this, maybe come from Linda B Raschke,the statement is something like this, trader should not take directional bias, but, it is important to make anticipatory analysis. I could not figure out the logic between these two concepts except accepting my above understanding(behavior vs analysis) which could reconcile the two. Maybe I am very blind and could not see the point, so, will appreciate if anyone could lend some insight.

I am paying attention to this, I worry if I am wrong on this point,then, I won't be able to break through. so, pardon me for writing this lengthy post in broken English.

In the end, I noticed two IPB of your definition on the monthly chart of AUDCHF. probably this could give some hint of potential breakout the rangy market? I hope so.











Quoting ghous
Hi Krue,

As good traders we know we want PA at good ppz zones, the one on Aud/Chf is as good as you'll ever get them,

I was looking for a break because price looked to retest the zone in quick successions, which was poitning towards a possible break itself, the daily BUOB was looking good till we saw the close way down below the ppz zone as a result of that sweet 4H pin bar.

Would I have hesitated to go short on that 4H pin bar as I was biased to the long side? No! Simply because it was not a "bias", it was rather a blunt anticipation,...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audchf ipb mthly apr.09.gif Size: 10 KB
  • #26,523
  • Apr 8, 2009 5:04am Apr 8, 2009 5:04am
Quoting g_j_hook@yah
???
the bars have closed pretty weak imo, the only pail(which i watch )whiich look ok is the eu/yen but that could simply be because it had a better raliegh???
PATIENCE... DISCIPLINE
  • #26,524
  • Apr 8, 2009 5:05am Apr 8, 2009 5:05am
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Quoting bakko85
2 pin bar forming on UsdChf and ChfJpy, TF 4h.

What do you think? Below there is the chart of the Usdchf; the Chfjpy probably is now better..

Any opinion?
0.8 of 1 pip difference between open and close on my chart for Uchf

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #26,525
  • Apr 8, 2009 5:09am Apr 8, 2009 5:09am
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Ej 4h pb of 131.00 support? not sure if it's to close to be a neutral bar though.

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  • #26,526
  • Apr 8, 2009 5:10am Apr 8, 2009 5:10am
Quoting g_j_hook@yah
???
doesn't look toooo bad from a position point of view, definitely the best of the other cosses
....but i have a gut feeling that all the JPY crosses want to fall a little further or perhaps consolidate before they resume their upward journey.

I am looking for longs on all of these but there is something making me unsure so i will stay out (which will be a first).
hope i don't regret this - there you are it's bound to be a good trade now
  • #26,527
  • Apr 8, 2009 5:16am Apr 8, 2009 5:16am
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
EU 4H Pb not a great nose, but it's off the 365 and in a clear zone, might wait to see how the daily bar forms.

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Click to Enlarge Name: eu 4h.gif Size: 19 KB
  • #26,528
  • Apr 8, 2009 5:17am Apr 8, 2009 5:17am
  •  krue
  • | Joined Mar 2008 | Status: finger scares cat, power of illusio | 410 Posts
Hi, Ghous, here again.

If looking into the monthly chart of AUDCHF, it seems to me we just see a breakout of the neutral triangle, or you would say breakup the inside bar?? so, the current daily confusion of PA setups could be a temporay halt of the move before it makes decisive impulse? not sure if you could be convinced. I would like to see some opposite view, if I could.

By the way, I don't know how to draw the broken lines, so sorry for leaving the long cross lines on the chart.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audchf ipb mthly apr.09.gif Size: 10 KB
  • #26,529
  • Apr 8, 2009 5:19am Apr 8, 2009 5:19am
Quoting simoncs
doesn't look toooo bad from a position point of view, definitely the best of the other cosses
....but i have a gut feeling that all the JPY crosses want to fall a little further or perhaps consolidate before they resume their upward journey.

I am looking for longs on all of these but there is something making me unsure so i will stay out (which will be a first).
hope i don't regret this - there you are it's bound to be a good trade now
yeah i agree, i would have liked to see these form a 100 or so pips lower.i am being v. cautious also.
PATIENCE... DISCIPLINE
  • #26,530
  • Apr 8, 2009 5:24am Apr 8, 2009 5:24am
Quoting Marco
Hi there,

I'm trading daily bars and as most of you try to move my stop to breakeven ASAP. I'm doing well with that approach lately but I don't have a consistent approach how to do it, yet.

Maybe some of you do...when do you move your stop to breakeven when trading a daily pin?

One way to do it consistently is to move to breakeven when the next support/resistance is reached, but sometimes that next support/resistance is a long way to go.

Another way is to do it, once 1/3 of the initial risk is reached or something like that...or X pips but...
Marco,
See the Word document attached to post 26123 for ideas about exit strategies. I personally am using exit method 10 on that sheet, setting to B/E when we are up 1/2 of Risk, which normally corresponds to first PPZ.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=26123

Josh
  • #26,531
  • Apr 8, 2009 5:32am Apr 8, 2009 5:32am
Quoting markmm
More important than the ema imho, you are buying into a PZ to the left and the pin nose is also a bit small. I would skip this if I was trading 4hr.
Thanks Mark,

I see the first strong PPZ around the 3300 area. Do you see differently? In fact, my thinking is that would be about the total move. Shooting for roughly 90 pips.

Thanks again.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #26,532
  • Edited 5:50am Apr 8, 2009 5:39am | Edited 5:50am
Hi Marco,

Myself, I'll consistently look for potential trouble spots. You can try and select trades where there is a clear run behind them with little pause. Kind of the 'Space' as Mike will mention. The two mostly go hand in hand anyway. The chart below shows how the pin was preceded by a pretty clear run down to it. It's pretty much a no brainer after a while that these little areas are what you should be learning to sit up and take notice of, for management purposes (They work well when they line up with a fib or two too)

You'll have to study your charts. I can't show you every little spot on the chart that's good for managing your open trade. It's pretty obvious after a while that you can't get greedy with your "sit up and take notice" levels. Set an alert. (You get better at filtering down to most likely first targets later on)
You should have an idea of these management areas before entering the trade, as you have probably realised.

Don't be worried about taking profit early and getting stopped out on your BE part. Your building your skills up. You shouldn't be trying to break pip haul records. Taking the right trades and trading this way get's you cruising along well enough to stay in business for the long haul. Gotta start somewhere!

,B

Edit: I'll make you another 'not so clear and easy' example to go along with this. Give me a while to find one. Re-Edit: Actually no I won't, just remembered a favour I have to put time into. lol ...Others will throw examples up anyway probably. Might do something later on.


Quoting Marco
Hi there,

I'm trading daily bars and as most of you try to move my stop to breakeven ASAP. I'm doing well with that approach lately but I don't have a consistent approach how to do it, yet.

Maybe some of you do...when do you move your stop to breakeven when trading a daily pin?

One way to do it consistently is to move to breakeven when the next support/resistance is reached, but sometimes that next support/resistance is a long way to go.

Another way is to do it, once 1/3 of the initial risk is reached or something like that...or X pips but...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdsgd manage ex.gif Size: 16 KB
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #26,533
  • Apr 8, 2009 5:48am Apr 8, 2009 5:48am
Quoting krue
Hey, Ghous,

your analysis is very interesting. regarding the topic of bias and anticipatory,I see them differently. bias is meant to me a habit, by which some trader only feel comfortable to take long position, for instance. when getting into a view as to the trend direction, I think it is anticipatory. so, I'd like to differentiate these two concepts, if I may.

what puzzles me is what might make a trader to take certain position, say long, without an expectation? when one feel there be a high probability of going north, then, I would say he/she...
in my veiw, the diference is very important,and quite simple,if the ego,self-image,your desires and wants,call it what you will are involved in your analysis it will be anticipatory(cool word) from a perspective of desire and not from a perspective drawn from your research and technical anaysis.
when a good pin forms at a great location do you place your order with anticipation as to the results or do you watch to see if price reacts like the stats and experience sugests it might without the stress and emotion!!it will make a difference.jus my rant
thanx jon
PATIENCE... DISCIPLINE
  • #26,534
  • Apr 8, 2009 5:56am Apr 8, 2009 5:56am
Quoting g_j_hook@yah
yeah i agree, i would have liked to see these form a 100 or so pips lower.i am being v. cautious also.
This is how I see it: EurJpy has broken out of a key Weekly PPz level of 131. This is actually a zone between 130-131. Price has now come back to retest that level and given us confirming PA. I agree there's not a huge amount of space for this to run into, hence my TP's as in this previous post: http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=26514

, but there's certainly enough room to get our stops to BE quickly. Not an A+ trade, but a great location IMO.

Best,
Chris
  • #26,535
  • Apr 8, 2009 6:06am Apr 8, 2009 6:06am
Quoting bundyraider
Hi Marco,
...
...
,B

Edit: I'll make you another 'not so clear and easy' example to go along with this. Give me a while to find one. Re-Edit: Actually no I won't, just remembered a favour I have to put time into. lol ...Others will throw examples up anyway probably. Might do something later on.
LOL ....Here I am forgetting my current trade on the very same pair!!

I was watching around the 23% area on the second smallest (Purple) fib I've got on my chart. I've just closed half and set BE (around 1.5148) . It shot straight through the level I was watching and got to the most likely first target. .... It did pause on the way, but not in a way that had me convinced.

Chart...

Edit: DAMN... Closed wrong half manually. I had a profit target on the other half. Forgot. Oh well.... Out of the trade . Full profit. NEXT!!
Attached Image
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #26,536
  • Apr 8, 2009 6:06am Apr 8, 2009 6:06am
Quoting albchr
Thanks Mark,

I see the first strong PPZ around the 3300 area. Do you see differently? In fact, my thinking is that would be about the total move. Shooting for roughly 90 pips.

Thanks again.
Hi Alb,

It's not a major Zone but just one with highs/lows and a flip.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 200904081158.png Size: 71 KB
Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
  • #26,537
  • Apr 8, 2009 6:07am Apr 8, 2009 6:07am
  •  krue
  • | Joined Mar 2008 | Status: finger scares cat, power of illusio | 410 Posts
Thanks, g_j_hook, this makes a good point. any expectation based on delusion/desire is prohibited, and judgement upon factual analysis should be used to form a trading plan. this makes the point clearer.



Quoting g_j_hook@yah
in my veiw, the diference is very important,and quite simple,if the ego,self-image,your desires and wants,call it what you will are involved in your analysis it will be anticipatory(cool word) from a perspective of desire and not from a perspective drawn from your research and technical anaysis.
when a good pin forms at a great location do you place your order with anticipation as to the results or do you watch to see if price reacts like the stats and experience sugests it might without the stress and emotion!!it will make a difference.jus my rant
thanx...
  • #26,538
  • Apr 8, 2009 6:07am Apr 8, 2009 6:07am
Quoting raczekfx
That's the problem with many new traders and a sign that they don't treat trading seriously.

In our circle of traders-friends there are several, who trade at only $10-15/pip and manage 50-75pips day-in and day out.
I still remember when back a couple of years ago I carried company BBs, pagers, sat phones... you name it, being available 24hrs on call and didn't even come close to their daily income...

Folks, respect your 'pips' even if you only trade at 0.1$/ps. One day you will be grateful for that.
My father wasn't a trader but would always tell me "watch your pennies and your dollars will take care of themselves." I can remember when I started trading with real money at 6 cents per pip. I'm not ready to trade for a living yet but the compounding is remarkable.
  • #26,539
  • Apr 8, 2009 6:13am Apr 8, 2009 6:13am
Quoting Jduester
Marco,
See the Word document attached to post 26123 for ideas about exit strategies. I personally am using exit method 10 on that sheet, setting to B/E when we are up 1/2 of Risk, which normally corresponds to first PPZ.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=26123

Josh
Thanks Josh! Great work.
  • #26,540
  • Apr 8, 2009 6:19am Apr 8, 2009 6:19am
Quoting Chris P
This is how I see it: EurJpy has broken out of a key Weekly PPz level of 131. This is actually a zone between 130-131. Price has now come back to retest that level and given us confirming PA. I agree there's not a huge amount of space for this to run into, hence my TP's as in this previous post: http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=26514

, but there's certainly enough room to get our stops to BE quickly. Not an A+ trade, but a great location IMO.

Best,
Chris
Location did it for me Chris. The bar itself is very average.
Stop is at B/E already.
"The more I practice, the luckier I get." (Gary Player)
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