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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #26,241
  • Apr 6, 2009 9:09am Apr 6, 2009 9:09am
Quoting dmc
Took it for a quick hitter to top of the gap. 60 pips. Simple!
This month I'm trying to take profit at 1:1 and see how it fairs, even though it will mean a few more stop outs. Nice trade.
"Whether you think you can or can't, you're right." Henry Ford
  • #26,242
  • Apr 6, 2009 9:09am Apr 6, 2009 9:09am
EURGBP : Bullish pin on 365, H4
CADJPY : DBHLC, H4


Many thanks James16 and may God bless. You have integrity up the ying yang.

Bryan
  • #26,243
  • Apr 6, 2009 9:22am Apr 6, 2009 9:22am
Question regarding setups. Would you consider a PA bar straddling one or two ema's as a good setup? Obviously if it had room to move to the next PZ? I know we prefer these to be on or next to PZ's.
Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
  • #26,244
  • Edited 9:41am Apr 6, 2009 9:28am | Edited 9:41am
Quoting ghous
I haven't been involved with this kind of trading for quite some time. (time constraints) but I've squeezed in a month or two of some free time,

Demo is the way I want to spend it

50 fib and resistance trend line doing the job this time...

Regards,
Ghous.
Morning Ghous,

That's funny, I'm in for the same direction but I got in much lower (3482). I needed that second 4H bear candle to close. (newbie inexperience and all).

Looking for the 3350 - 80 area perhaps?

EDIT: Just took half moved SL to BE +10
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #26,245
  • Apr 6, 2009 9:45am Apr 6, 2009 9:45am
Nice outsidebar.I'm alerady in trade and my position have an safe +1 sl.First target 1.4770.
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  • #26,246
  • Apr 6, 2009 9:46am Apr 6, 2009 9:46am
nice lookin 8h pin on us/yen.daily ppz with fib confluence. lovely swing high with loads a space.
jon
p.s. nice trade ghous. im working on something v. similar.
jon
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PATIENCE... DISCIPLINE
  • #26,247
  • Apr 6, 2009 9:48am Apr 6, 2009 9:48am
Quoting Shermenator
I see ...would this be a trade you would have taken with a smaller risk or simply steped aside and waited for a better bar...thanks Gus
Hey gus

After steep runs I find the pair that gives the tip off with the strongest PA. Also I would have liked us to get a bit higher as well. I am very picky as I move to the 4hr and 1hr

Mike
  • #26,248
  • Apr 6, 2009 9:52am Apr 6, 2009 9:52am
When drawing fibs, is it best to draw them on the very last swing high/low or just sort of "adjust" them around until they best fit the the PPZ's in front of them?
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #26,249
  • Apr 6, 2009 9:52am Apr 6, 2009 9:52am
Quoting markmm
Question regarding setups. Would you consider a PA bar straddling one or two ema's as a good setup? Obviously if it had room to move to the next PZ? I know we prefer these to be on or next to PZ's.
Some people use MAs+PA alone. Example a pinbar of the first time back to say the 365 MA.

Could you post a chart showing more what you mean

Thanks
Mike
  • #26,250
  • Edited 10:11am Apr 6, 2009 10:00am | Edited 10:11am
Quoting albchr
Thanks Tom and Ray_1,
Yes it's still a demo but I'll need to go live within the next two weeks max. I couldn't agree more about the risk and pressure. That's precisely what I've been dealing with for months in my attempt to trade 4H, 1H and 30M charts. I need to average 500 a day (300 to cover bills and 200 for account building)and so far......I've been doing that or very close to it.

The risk and pressure thing is exactly why I'm glad I was steered to this thread by ak4x. While I won't have the account size or time to work the weekly...
Hey Christopher,

It's good to hear that you are at least doing very well in demo.
One thing I would like to point out is that aiming for a daily % goal is a little dangerous.
Most experienced traders will tell you that anything less than monthly is not practical. Some will even say quarterly is the way to go. Others will say that just aiming for a specific % amount period will get you in trouble.

Another thing to mention is that based on your figures, you're looking at 4-5% daily to start with. Anything is possible, but to sustain those kind of profits long term would be more than amazing and not likely.
Lastly, a handful of trades cannot give you a realistic and accurate view of your method's expectancy and profit potential. A few months of trading would be the best snapshot. But I know you're kind of in a time crunch.

Again I will wish you success and all the good folks will be here at j16 to help along the way.
But if you could extend your demo period, or even start off live with a much smaller amount than what your actual total capital is, I think that would be a good move.
Please take what I say as just my opinion and personal view of things based on my experience. I just don't wanna see good people lose their money for no good reason.

Take care,
Tom
  • #26,251
  • Apr 6, 2009 10:06am Apr 6, 2009 10:06am
Quoting moneybags
I just don't wanna see good people lose their money for no good reason.

Take care,
Tom
well said Tom. I can relate to you Chris, my mom has been through 3 major back surgeries now and can barely get out of bed some days.

Unfortunately you are climbing a huge hill, but that hill will be 10k less 99.9% of the time trying to do what you are doing. As long as you know we are all looking out for you here

Feel better Chris, and we are all here to help

Mike
  • #26,252
  • Apr 6, 2009 10:07am Apr 6, 2009 10:07am
Quoting mbqb11
well said Tom. I can relate to you Chris, my mom has been through 3 major back surgeries now and can barely get out of bed some days.

Unfortunately you are climbing a huge hill, but that hill will be 10k less 99.9% of the time trying to do what you are doing. As long as you know we are all looking out for you here

Feel better Chris, and we are all here to help

Mike
iits posts like these that keep me reading this thread. good traders ...good people.
thanx yawl , jon
PATIENCE... DISCIPLINE
  • #26,253
  • Apr 6, 2009 10:08am Apr 6, 2009 10:08am
Quoting albchr
When drawing fibs, is it best to draw them on the very last swing high/low or just sort of "adjust" them around until they best fit the the PPZ's in front of them?

IMO it is ALWAYS best to use the most CLEAR swing high and low points. This is where they are the most effective. Now like PPZs, you have both major and minor swing points. But sometimes I see people draw fibs very very curve fitted to a chart(much like trendlines), in order to convince or talk themselves into a So-So trade. IMO if you can stick to the obvious everything(bars, ppzs, fibs, support/resistance) etc, your road to success will speed up enornomously

Mike
  • #26,254
  • Apr 6, 2009 10:10am Apr 6, 2009 10:10am
Quoting mbqb11
Some people use MAs+PA alone. Example a pinbar of the first time back to say the 365 MA.

Could you post a chart showing more what you mean

Thanks
Mike
Hi Mike,

For instance, On this GBP/JPY Daily & 4H. Where I have this fib drawn it would seem that it hit the 50 rather nicely and turned (so far) but I'm wondering if my placement of the fib is accurate. Now I anchored the bottom on the daily and moved the top to various highs until it "looked" like it matched PA pretty well. So is this 50% level accurate as you would see it or would you have drawn this fib differently?
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Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #26,255
  • Apr 6, 2009 10:22am Apr 6, 2009 10:22am
Quoting albchr
Hi Mike,

For instance, On this GBP/JPY Daily & 4H. Where I have this fib drawn it would seem that it hit the 50 rather nicely and turned (so far) but I'm wondering if my placement of the fib is accurate. Now I anchored the bottom on the daily and moved the top to various highs until it "looked" like it matched PA pretty well. So is this 50% level accurate as you would see it or would you have drawn this fib differently?
Yeah If you find yourself "moving" the fib levels till they line up to make something work, that is a slippery slope. Trust me there.

Here is one of the obvious and main fib points

I also drew blue boxes at less major swing high points. IMO these are not worth using because of how small these swing highs are(you can see this when zoomed out). Now does that mean you can't use them. Of course not. I can't tell anyone that. I just think sticking to the obvious ones is not only the best, but the easiest. Simple always wins in my book.

Hope that helps
Mike
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  • #26,256
  • Apr 6, 2009 10:27am Apr 6, 2009 10:27am
Quoting Jduester
I completed goal 1 on Wednesday, a few days ahead of schedule....
I've now completed backtesting to practice trade. I've attached my results. Main points of note:
- Trading WITH the Trend was more successful
- Trading at a SWING HIGH/LOW was more successful
- Trading with a PA formation was more successful
- Trading WITH confluence was more successful
- Weekly trades were more successful than Daily trades

Many more conclusions could be deduced. This exercise proved to me that if I look for the above, I can be successful about 85% of my trades.

I have not backtested pinbars on all timeframes yet (See above post as well as one from Bundy, post 8826). Nor have I done my other test on consecutive up/down bars. I will most likely do these tests later in the month or in May.

Trading plan is finalized. Just 'waiting' for a successful April to go live in May on a small account. Will add to that small account systematically once I've proven myself trading live for 3 months, per J16 recommended minimum requirements. Would like to join PF in September if all is going well.

In the meantime, I'll be rereading ROASO and possibly Freedom From the Ties that Bind (recommended by Raczekfx), going through J16 Guest Videos again, going through my thread summary again, and going through my notes again. Then I might start doing some canoeing on the Mississippi River, if it warms up a little. Need a break after the last month of just doing research.

Josh
Attached File(s)
File Type: doc Backtesting Conclusions.doc   32 KB | 1,022 downloads
  • #26,257
  • Apr 6, 2009 10:28am Apr 6, 2009 10:28am
Quoting ghous
I haven't been involved with this kind of trading for quite some time. (time constraints) but I've squeezed in a month or two of some free time,

Demo is the way I want to spend it

50 fib and resistance trend line doing the job this time...

Regards,
Ghous.
Well Done Ghous!
  • #26,258
  • Edited 10:42am Apr 6, 2009 10:31am | Edited 10:42am
Quoting albchr
When drawing fibs, is it best to draw them on the very last swing high/low or just sort of "adjust" them around until they best fit the the PPZ's in front of them?
hi albchr, fibs should be drawn only from swing highs/lows. trying to fit the fib to price will only lesson the number of traders using them(as they become more obscure).I use the last major swing, price will generally respect the fibs until a new swing invalidates them. they can also be drawn from open/close price but i personally draw them from high/lows so i cant comment on this.its worth bearing in mind that some pairs respond better to them than others although in my experience the fib retrace numbers are pretty well respected across the board.The chart show the only valid places to plot fibs from this swing ,imo.
hope this help,
jon
EDIT: beaten to it hehe
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PATIENCE... DISCIPLINE
  • #26,259
  • Apr 6, 2009 10:32am Apr 6, 2009 10:32am
Quoting Jduester
I've now completed backtesting to practice trade....
Seriously Josh, if anyone is treating this like a business and taking the proper steps it is you. You aren't there yet, but you will be, and you are a great role model for new traders and a lot of OLD ones too!

Hats off to you sir(and it is my yankees cap too for opening day and I wouldn't take that off to almost anyone today)

James will love that last line

Mike
  • #26,260
  • Apr 6, 2009 10:36am Apr 6, 2009 10:36am
Quoting Jduester
I've now completed backtesting to practice trade....
Josh, you're great.. I admire you for your constance and dedition. You did a perfect homework..!!
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