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The Experts Zone: GBPJPY

  • #181
  • Apr 4, 2009 10:36am Apr 4, 2009 10:36am
well, i quit all positions on zulu on friday, just before close, cause i do not see anything above 149.40 for now.

RSI values are highly OB

will evaluate on monday, tokyo session and then decide the fresh course of action.
  • #182
  • Apr 5, 2009 8:43pm Apr 5, 2009 8:43pm
What a ride.
There seem to be no end to the move lol. But no, we'll be realistic because we know that's not the case. But as I've always said in the past, being early does not make you right. So I'm gonna ride this beast till she really is out of steam. Good luck everyone
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  • #183
  • Apr 5, 2009 9:17pm Apr 5, 2009 9:17pm
My scalp targets are till 151, from there unless it does not break, i expect reversal to begin, since we are way too high on RSI.

I will be scalping 20 pip longs till 151 for now on 1 minute charts.

I am more than anxious to note the progress of these 3 guys, lets see how they do this week.
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  • #184
  • Apr 5, 2009 9:43pm Apr 5, 2009 9:43pm
I will be watching this trendline formation on daily very carefully, this could form reversal pattern, but not before touching 151 atleast once.
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  • #185
  • Apr 6, 2009 1:53am Apr 6, 2009 1:53am
Excellent hit into 151, from here my bias changes to the downside as long as we remain below 151, with expectations of up to 142.50 max down.

Lets see what comes along here.
  • #186
  • Apr 6, 2009 3:40am Apr 6, 2009 3:40am
Okay, with 151 decisively gone, here is my gameplan.

152.47 as weekly R2 for now.
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  • #187
  • Apr 6, 2009 5:27am Apr 6, 2009 5:27am
Quoting forexlion
Okay, with 151 decisively gone, here is my gameplan.

152.47 as weekly R2 for now.
Wrong analysis

If 21 SMA on 30 min breaks we tank hard as per post #185
  • #188
  • Apr 6, 2009 8:15am Apr 6, 2009 8:15am
Quoting forexlion
Wrong analysis

If 21 SMA on 30 min breaks we tank hard as per post #185
important supports along the way

147.79
145.80
145.05
142.59

142.5 max before reversal back up
  • #189
  • Apr 6, 2009 8:20am Apr 6, 2009 8:20am
This is my plan of action on the way down

And in addition to this I will also take the above supports seriously.

61.8% is max down in this chart, taken as fib expansion from top with previous week high and low.
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  • #190
  • Apr 6, 2009 8:26am Apr 6, 2009 8:26am
Okay. All profit are now off the table. We'll look for a break below the tl (highlighted rectangle area) before loading shorts. Failing to do so & we won't discount the possibility to go long again. No trade atm.
Good luck everyone
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  • #191
  • Apr 6, 2009 10:06am Apr 6, 2009 10:06am
Quoting forexlion
This is my plan of action on the way down

And in addition to this I will also take the above supports seriously.

61.8% is max down in this chart, taken as fib expansion from top with previous week high and low.
On a 4 hour chart this 4 hour line needs to break to confirm a full drop, this could also become a support for a bounce back up

this is 4 hour T3MA.MQ4 value 13.
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  • #192
  • Apr 6, 2009 10:29am Apr 6, 2009 10:29am
This move was too early to translate into a full downtrend move, so i would expect some kind of move back into 149.40 or even 151 before bouncing back down for a fresh down trend.

Only a break of 4 hour t3ma value 13 negates this view.
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  • #193
  • Apr 6, 2009 11:08am Apr 6, 2009 11:08am
Quoting forexlion
important supports along the way

147.79
145.80
145.05
142.59

142.5 max before reversal back up
First support met, but since the move was too early, we should see some kind of move back to previous support 149.40, before finally dropping.

remember 4 hour is still not officially confirmed for a down move and daily is still in uptrend mode.

so we need to be very very careful with shorts here.

i will wait for 30 min to confirm if it needs to move to 149.40 as yet or wait for tokyo first.

a break of 147.79 support negates this view, and opens then next lower support.
  • #194
  • Apr 6, 2009 11:40am Apr 6, 2009 11:40am
Strong bearish outlook confirmed with the evening star forming on the 6hourly. We're short below the ltl. Good luck
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  • #195
  • Apr 6, 2009 12:14pm Apr 6, 2009 12:14pm
Quoting forexlion
First support met, but since the move was too early, we should see some kind of move back to previous support 149.40, before finally dropping.

remember 4 hour is still not officially confirmed for a down move and daily is still in uptrend mode.

so we need to be very very careful with shorts here.

i will wait for 30 min to confirm if it needs to move to 149.40 as yet or wait for tokyo first.

a break of 147.79 support negates this view, and opens then next lower support.
good move there

as long as 147.79 support holds i will expect a move into 149.40 resistance first then , if that holds then a move back down, not before that.

.
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  • #196
  • Apr 6, 2009 8:45pm Apr 6, 2009 8:45pm
Good moves again overnight.

The current daily trendlines as given in red are indicative of a ranging market condition, which translates into near flat markets. So, here we cannot set targets.

Today I will trade the swings on 30 min chart with the above supports in mind.

But, my gut feeling says one more move into 149.40 should be seen here. lets see how it goes.
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  • #197
  • Apr 6, 2009 9:04pm Apr 6, 2009 9:04pm
My plan of action for today.

I will either scalp till the "one hour" T3MA line or wait till it gets there which should be safer

Then short all the way down to the "Daily" T3MA line, since 4 hour is now in a "possible but not confirmed" short status.

Safety first, I will wait. Maybe London open might push it up and close the gap, and some stupid news during London pushes it lower.

I have just drawn lines where the T3MA values on that timeframe exist.
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  • #198
  • Apr 6, 2009 11:42pm Apr 6, 2009 11:42pm
Good morning everyone
This a followup to post #194. Our shorts are all coming along fine atm. Marked area on the hourly could possibly be the area of target. Anyway, don't forget to lock in gains, stranger things have happened.
Good luck.
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  • #199
  • Apr 7, 2009 12:54am Apr 7, 2009 12:54am
Quoting forexlion
My plan of action for today.

I will either scalp till the "one hour" T3MA line or wait till it gets there which should be safer

Then short all the way down to the "Daily" T3MA line, since 4 hour is now in a "possible but not confirmed" short status.

Safety first, I will wait. Maybe London open might push it up and close the gap, and some stupid news during London pushes it lower.

I have just drawn lines where the T3MA values on that timeframe exist.
I will wait for a break of 4 hour 21 SMA to short .
  • #200
  • Apr 7, 2009 1:14am Apr 7, 2009 1:14am
If 147.79 holds then it should be a good place to consider fresh shorts.

But, I still need that 4 hour 21 SMA to break.

The default MT4 ADX template can be a good guide in this case.
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