Indicator Free Trading - Skunny

Fry,

Thats cool....there might be a balance between sup/demand in these areas but they are usually areas where price will pause (and sometimes be rejected). but there is some sort of struggle between buyers and sellers. So when u say there are "more buyers than sellers ", I view it a little differently. with every buy there is a sell so there can't be more of one, than the other so to me, it's a matter of who wants it more. Will the buyers/sellers refresh their orders or will they lift offers/drop bids to make way for new highs/lows. It's strange how prices break through an area and make new(seemingly because there are not enough sellers) and suddenly, for some reason at some level, the sellers magically find enough orders to push the price back down to where it was before.

It's just a trap to catch longs and shorts in the wrong direction. smaller TF's will give a better look into these areas that create these hesitations or reversals. There is obviously much more than just theses levels that we can see on the left side of the chart that create pivots. Past and current PA is one of the things that can give great clues as to the direction we might be headed next.

As I mentioned before, I use fibs and they can be a very good tool but I feel there are other tools that give me a bit more of an advanced warning so I can get into a trade before the herd.

Good Trading

What did happen to this thread everyone is gone ?

i just wish i did understand the strategy ??



best regards

should we expect GU go down to 1.3960 (price gone to 1.4660 after your post)?

i see 3950 too. If it gets to that then I would also expect to reach 3810, before continue upmove towards 5158.

Come back, Scotty B! This thread needs you.......

Fry's point was that in those areas there was a historical imbalance i.e many more buyers than sellers or vice versa. Sam Seiden says that this is demonstrated by the way price acted at these points the last time it was there. He anticipates that the next time price comes to one of those areas, there will still be excess orders there from the last time (or the same people putting in the same order again).
Thus if price fell sharply from one of these areas, then it is likely to fall from it again the first time it is re-tested, but that the number of excess sell orders there will reduce with every re-test. Thus the areas become weaker rather than stronger with each re-test.
This goes against traditional TA, but makes sense if you think about the underlying mechanics of the market.

thanks ian, that is a much clearer explanation than i gave.
Well we were a couple of pips away from first target of 3950. I still see the previous targets as posted before.

Ian,

I understand that but It is interesting to note that that area will quite often still be a sup/res area in the future. So i don't feel that it becomes weaker. The PA around those areas is usually a hint as to weather or not a particular area might come back into play....an hour, a day, a week, a month later

Good trading

I'm freshly back from good old Mexico...I had a great trip...Now back to trading. I am watching euro this week. The overall trend is short, she is going to 1.2204 ultimately but I think we could see a three day modest up move to begin this week. I have a feeling that the the ripples from the jobless report late last week still need to work out of the market. 1.2800 is quite possible, but not guaranteed. I'll see you all a little later.

Scotty B

Scotty, ( and everone else who has been in this thread a while)

First of all, let me say that at times this thread got really nasty. I haven't really posted here in a long time but have come back from time to time to see what's happening. I contributed my fair share of nasty comments (however subtile compared to some), but none the less, I got caught up in the argument too much. I like to think I have matured as a trader and as a person. Therefore, I am offering an apology to anyone that I may have offended, hurt, or otherwise ticked off by my childish behavior at times and my zeal to offer my opinion with bitterness and anger instead of objectivity.
To anyone that it did affect in a negative way, I am sorry.

I do however, think it is healthy and offers learning to debate things. I think everyone has a right to their opinion but must beware not to let it be dictated by their emotions. HMMMM....sounds like trading the forex huh? Over the last 3 and 1/2 years of my trading journey, I have learned an awful lot (awful being the key word) about myself. Trading has shown me the true person I am and I am sure I will find out even more in the days to come ( maybe not an apetizing thought). But, I do feel I have seen many things about myself and have changed them for the better, which has enabled me to be a better person and a profitable trader. The saying that " you have to find yourself" in trading is so true. You have to search and search to find exactly what works for you in trading before you can become successful. It is a simple statement that is so hard to implement. I searched system after system thinking I could find the holy grail, when in fact my holy grail was between my two ears. It took me getting out of my video game mentallity, where I would restart the game over and over until I won, to realize that the market just doesn't work that way. You can't start over unless you are demo trading. Once money is on the line, it's the real game, not a video game. I was competing with my chart and equated it to a video game I would play over and over until I solved it, or beat the villain. I had to realize this is real, and however simple that sounds, it took years for me to come to grips with it. Now I realize the market can do whatever it wants. Sure there is a rhythm, but I feel it is humanly impossible to know the direction of the market every time. I think you can have profitable trades 60, 70, 80, 90, maybe even 99% of the time, but it's that one percent that can wipe it all away if you don't have the discipline to understand that the market CAN do something you are not expecting. I have seen many here at FF in the same mindset as me. They are searching, they are looking and want to succeed so badly. Maybe it's to be rich, maybe it's the freedom trading offers, maybe it's a hobby. For whatever reason it is, if it's producing passion inside of you to love this market, you will not give up, but will keep looking and searching until you find YOURSELF in this market. This thread helped me gain one key to several that has now comprised my approach or methodology to the market. I am grateful for this thread, even if at times it seemed I was not. I also am grateful to my mentors and teamates in trading who have put up with my whining and negativity along the way. I guess many of us go through that, but if the belief is imbeded deeply inside of you, then you will keep digging and digging until you find your treasure. I hope to contribute to this site and become a help to others' searching. I think we all have the right to disagree or agree but I think the spirit behind it is what can cause it to get unhealthy. I appreciate all who have spent time here for the quest of success in forex and trust it will continue until many have finally found their nitch and succeed.

In the nature of that, I will offer that I think fibs and SR is the best way to find profitability. I don't necessarily think the market "has" to go to a certain price. I think we can certainly get hints but it goes back to the 1% failure I mentioned earlier. When I finally realized the market is ALWAYS right, I came to understand that by believing that, I was always right, no matter, win or lose. Scotty, it seems you have also found much of what you are in search of and that is a blessing. I wish that for others here as well.

Daniel

Which are the psychological numbers and what do they mean?

Round numbers. Here's an article about it:

http://ezinearticles.com/?Forex-Trad...ers&id=1851400

thanks for the article.

round numbers meaning 00? example.. 1.2300?

or are there any more psychological numbers in forex?

There's in fact a lot...

... but some of them are "stronger" than others. Usually 00 and 50, then 20 and 80, and I have noticed that 33 and 66 (though not "round" but I guess it can be because those are Master Numbers - same double digit).

Pick up a chart and observe its behaviour around those numbers, it will be easier to understand.

thank you for enlightening me!

One enduring question I have that I can't seem to wrap my mind around is in reference to S/R zones. I completely understand them, but what I don't get is setting up trades with them. HOW can you foretell if there's going to be a bounce or a breakthrough? Ya, maybe if there's a pinbar or something you can have a good idea. But a lot of the time there's no specific indication of what's going to happen, or is there? Am I missing something, or are we left with a 50/50 on this? If it's 50/50, should one just set up a buy stop maybe 25%-30% into the level to minimize any spikes in the PA setting off the trade in error, and simultaneously setting a sell stop or sell limit for the anticipation of a bounce? This would cover all bases, but obviously you'd need to be mindful of any spikes setting off the trades, when they shouldn't have been. I really look forward to an explanation!!

[quote=4X4EVER;2603333]Scotty, ( and everone else who has been in this thread a while)

"...I think fibs and SR is the best way to find profitability..."

Nice to find someone using the same method.

I've been demo-ing for about six months now and tried every system under the sun, including some I made up myself, and bombed on them all. The only method I had any success with was the one I started with, s+r using the 1 and 4H charts. I used only to trade on the break of a line but then I really got into fibonacci and found the system brilliant for trading retracements. I'm still on the demo, and intend staying on it for a while yet, but I'm gradually clawing back what I lost whilst trying each and every other system. I tend to trade the breaks using the 4H and the retracements using the 1H and lower, depending on how much time I can spend on the computer. I might add that I mainly trade in the direction of the trend.

I use trendlines and candlestick information as confirmation sometimes.

Several times whilst backtesting I thought that I'd discovered the holy grail, only to be brought down to earth trading real-time. I found that indicators could only tell me what'd already happened, by the time they told me to do something, it was already too late to do it.

I'm not knocking indicators, if they're your thing then good luck to you, they just don't work for me.

Nobody knows if price will bounce off S/R zones or break through them. Its all a matter of probabilities. You can look at the longer Tf trend, price momentum and what price did there last time, as well as looking for specific price action such as Pinbars or reversal patterns.

To get some ideas, if you haven't already done so then I suggest you take a look at BRV's FF thread ' No brainer trades', Clockwork71's FF thread 'Silent Service Method' as well as videos on the web by Sam Seiden and Toni Hansen.

Ian

Looks like a lot of people think there will be hollyyyy grail on fibs...Who knows.. offcourse.... ;]

Like said Mrs. Chanellll : " I am not selling perfumes, cremes, etc..etc... - I am selling hopes for people.... "


Best,
Tom

just keeping the thread alive