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Follow the trend!

  • #1
  • First Post: Apr 6, 2007 1:00pm Apr 6, 2007 1:00pm
the forex market trends more than any other financial market out there... so why arent there more trend traders out there??
I see all these "holy grail systems" that are full of indicators.. and honestly I think indicators are crap. Following the trend is the only way, in my opinion, to trade successfully in the long run.
Does anyone here follow trends?
  • #2
  • Apr 6, 2007 1:02pm Apr 6, 2007 1:02pm
I am absolutely a trend trader... It is much easier to go with the flow and for me, more profitable...
  • #3
  • Apr 6, 2007 1:15pm Apr 6, 2007 1:15pm
Quoting smjones
I am absolutely a trend trader... It is much easier to go with the flow and for me, more profitable...
I am very curious how you can enter this way.
What do you observe?
Do you use candles or what to determine the trend is worthy of you getting into it?
I am very serious, I do not understand what you can use to trade this way.
To say just look at the charts does not seem complete.
Can you shed a ray of light?
Thank you,
Stan
  • #4
  • Apr 6, 2007 1:19pm Apr 6, 2007 1:19pm
Well, You need to do some studying. If you draw a trend line on a daily chart, if the trend is up, buy on the price dips that go back to the trend line.. If it is down, sell on the peaks that go back to the trend line. The rest is money management.. This is all covered in the Sticky threads that are in the beginner forum...

It is actually as simple as it can get... Trading does not have to be complicated...
  • #5
  • Apr 6, 2007 1:49pm Apr 6, 2007 1:49pm
Quoting Stan
I am very curious how you can enter this way.
What do you observe?
Do you use candles or what to determine the trend is worthy of you getting into it?
I am very serious, I do not understand what you can use to trade this way.
To say just look at the charts does not seem complete.
Can you shed a ray of light?
Thank you,
Stan
pick a moving average. apply it to longer time frame.
buy or sell.

yea, you can actually do this with 1 moving average.

money management
money management <-- Key
money management

in fact you can do this right now, go ahead and try on a demo account.
BAM BAM BOOM! -bravado
  • #6
  • Apr 6, 2007 1:55pm Apr 6, 2007 1:55pm
Quoting superdezign
Following the trend is the only way, in my opinion, to trade successfully in the long run.
May this thread live long and prosper!

As a beginning trader, all of the systems and methods are quite fantastic to see. But they are so complicated!

I would be interested in hearing about the SIMPLEST methodologies and approaches to identifying and jumping on a few good 5M trends a day.

No indicators? I would LOVE it! But,how? Isn't the use of a simple indicator
a necessary "evil" to qualify a trend?

Let's please try to develop this thread as an alternative to "holy grail"
thinking (i.e. dreaming).

Below is a chart with a trend which would have been impossible for ME to catch without the signal generated by the indicator.
Any thoughts on this?

I have also attached the indicator. How can I "become" the indicator!
Or, if you will, become my own "indicator" by "assimilating" the market as it unfolds and responding appropriately?

If anyone could share on this most important topic of REDUCTIONIST
TRENDFOLLOWING which is, I believe, the intention of the thread. That would
be wonderful.

Have a great long weekend my friends!
FSX
Attached Image
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 Instantaneous Trend.mq4   5 KB | 1,531 downloads
  • #7
  • Apr 6, 2007 2:04pm Apr 6, 2007 2:04pm
Quoting FXSurfer
May this thread live long and prosper!

If anyone could share on this most important topic of REDUCTIONIST
TRENDFOLLOWING which is, I believe, the intention of the thread. That would
be wonderful.

Have a great long weekend my friends!
FSX
Sorry, I cannot help. I do not trade 5 min charts..
  • #8
  • Apr 6, 2007 2:22pm Apr 6, 2007 2:22pm
Quoting smjones
Sorry, I cannot help. I do not trade 5 min charts..
Thank you for your reply!

Is this because of one or more of the following:

-cost of trading(spread)

-choppiness

-size of average trend

or some other reasons?

What TF do you like, if I may ask?

THIS THREAD IS TAKING OFF! WONDERFUL!

FXS
  • #9
  • Apr 6, 2007 2:26pm Apr 6, 2007 2:26pm
Yea i do not focus on 5 min either. I think the only way to block out all the market noise is to trade on the daily chart.. only problem is i have no idea about when to take profits and how to identify whipsaw before it is to late..

an awesome book I am currently reading is called "Following the Trend".. Although he (the author) goes through alot of important information regarding trends he never spells out any methods. Almost like he wants us to figure it out for ourself but at the same time he gives us every piece of the puzzle we need and all his readers have to do it put it together..

If you trade trends please be so kind as to shed some light on my situation..

I took some time to do some backtesting and if i followed an MA trend model to a T and ended up with +5,200 pips profit over a period of 4 years

..here are the P/L for each trade.. I think I did this on the GU, cant remember, it was late at night :
233
117
91
-191
45
988
-97
925
-65
-114
-156
688
300
200
-251
800
400
150
-70
900
-80
-280
824
-180
-130
70
220
550

some positions were held for months others for a few days..
if anyone knows how to outperform what I have here pleaseeeee tell me!!
Before I start to trade this live I want to make sure I have all my pips in a row

lets pull this together FF!!!!! to hell with indicators!!
  • #10
  • Apr 6, 2007 2:27pm Apr 6, 2007 2:27pm
Well I am not so much time frame based, but I do look mostly at a daily chart. I also look at weekly and monthly... It is all very boring...

No tiny time frames, because It is too nerve racking to pay attention all the time for such tiny profits, but more often losses...
  • #11
  • Apr 6, 2007 2:28pm Apr 6, 2007 2:28pm
If you really want to know about Trend Trading, go read all of Jacko's posts...
All of it is gold
  • #12
  • Apr 6, 2007 3:16pm Apr 6, 2007 3:16pm
SMJones, your cow bus was LMAO yesterday...

For those that missed it,
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...7&postcount=29

How many bounces off a daily trendline before you get in?

What do you guys think of Tesla's Fancy Shmancy Trendline alert? He's a pretty sharp guy, that Tesla....
  • #13
  • Apr 6, 2007 4:02pm Apr 6, 2007 4:02pm
Love the trends... I don't use any indicators, just trendlines, S/R and the occasional fib, as well as candlestick evaluation. what SMJones says, find a trend and buy dips (or sell peaks). I use dailys and 4hrs, weekly to sometimes see the bigger trend, and hourlys sometimes to enter a trade.
  • #14
  • Apr 6, 2007 8:07pm Apr 6, 2007 8:07pm
Quoting superdezign
...some positions were held for months others for a few days...if anyone knows how to outperform what I have here pleaseeeee tell me!!
Before I start to trade this live I want to make sure I have all my pips in a row

lets pull this together FF!!!!! to hell with indicators!!
When I trade end of day (24 hour charts) I enter with three contracts.
Once I get a full bar clear of the break even, I set all three to break even.
The first is set to a limit of double the risk, up to 120 pips.
The second goes up with the swings. So if the trend is up, swings down a little then heads back up, I set it to the lowest low bar.
The third stays at break even until I see a signal to trade in the opposite direction.

This gives short, medium and long term positions in the market. If one or more of the contracts get stopped out then I look for a signal for it to re enter.

Re do your back testing using this and see what happens, I'd be interested to know.
  • #15
  • Apr 6, 2007 8:35pm Apr 6, 2007 8:35pm
Quoting FXSurfer
May this thread live long and prosper!

As a beginning trader, all of the systems and methods are quite fantastic to see. But they are so complicated!

I would be interested in hearing about the SIMPLEST methodologies and approaches to identifying and jumping on a few good 5M trends a day.

No indicators? I would LOVE it! But,how? Isn't the use of a simple indicator
a necessary "evil" to qualify a trend?

Let's please try to develop this thread as an alternative to "holy grail"
thinking (i.e. dreaming).

Below is a chart with a trend which would have been impossible for ME to catch without the signal generated by the indicator.
Any thoughts on this?

I have also attached the indicator. How can I "become" the indicator!
Or, if you will, become my own "indicator" by "assimilating" the market as it unfolds and responding appropriately?

If anyone could share on this most important topic of REDUCTIONIST
TRENDFOLLOWING which is, I believe, the intention of the thread. That would
be wonderful.

Have a great long weekend my friends!
FSX

If you allow me, there is a way to catch the trend without using the indicator for sure...I have attached the same image after adding some things on it....

The formation on the bottom is called a "Failure Swing" which is a very famous pattern at bottoms and at tops. The failure swing is a variation of double tops & bottoms and they are actually better than them. You will see 2 horizontal lines, labeled 1 & 2, you can go long after breaking either 1 or 2, depends on your money management & risk control. It is always wise to place the stop below the bottom, although I would be conservative to place the stop in the middle of the failure swing pattern because usually if prices fell there, they won't return back up & will probably break the low.

As can be seen also, there was a small congestion area after the failure swing which represents some indecision in the market. This congestion actually reduces the probability of the failure swing. That's why I would have been long the market at level 1 with the minimal position size possible. When the congestion was broken to the outside, I would have added to my position but not more than the double.

So, where is the target? The failure swing started at a low of 159.23-159.25 and the top of the swing came at 159.35-159.37. The vertical distance is about 10 pips. Projecting this distance upward from the top of the pattern would give a MINIMUM target of 159.45-159.47. This is a pair with a 5 pips spread & we are risking around 15 pips to win 10 pips less 5 spread, in my opinion the trade is not worth anything, even the time, excuse me...

If I were you, I would skip the trade for sure, but at least, I proved my point that you can completely cancel the indicator & rely solely on the price action


Thanks,

Nader
Attached Image
  • #16
  • Apr 6, 2007 9:23pm Apr 6, 2007 9:23pm
Interesting Chart Nader, Is it a one or five Minute or something else?

Are your indicators based on anything similar to;
If it is a Five Minute Chart, Ind:= Ref(Close,-288);
If it is a One Minute Chart, Ind:= Ref(Close,-1440);
  • #17
  • Apr 6, 2007 9:28pm Apr 6, 2007 9:28pm
Quoting Bemac
Interesting Chart Nader, Is it a one or five Minute or something else?

Are your indicators based on anything similar to;
If it is a Five Minute Chart, Ind:= Ref(Close,-288);
If it is a One Minute Chart, Ind:= Ref(Close,-1440);
This is a five minutes chart for the EUR/JPY...It is not my chart anyway, I got the chart from one of the posts just to prove that the trend can be caught without the help of any indicators


Thanks,

Nader
  • #18
  • Apr 7, 2007 4:46am Apr 7, 2007 4:46am
I love this thread. Let's devote ourselves to the simplest idea of trading. Trend-following. Simple is best.
  • #19
  • Apr 7, 2007 5:14am Apr 7, 2007 5:14am
Simple MA crossover also trend follower...
  • #20
  • Apr 7, 2007 5:17am Apr 7, 2007 5:17am
I totally agree. At least it is much more relaxed just to catch the trends

Quoting luqmanz
I love this thread. Let's devote ourselves to the simplest idea of trading. Trend-following. Simple is best.
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