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Silent Service Method

  • #921
  • Apr 3, 2009 12:13pm Apr 3, 2009 12:13pm
Quoting clockwork71
Here's a question: What is your biggest hurdle? If you don't mind sharing, I bet there's a great lesson in it for your fellow traders.
Hi CW,

I've been lurking here at your excellent thread for a long time now soaking up all this great information so I thought it was time I joined in.

In response to your quesiton; my biggest hurdle, at the moment is (one I imagine a lot of traders share) entering my next trade after some really good action. For example, you were recently involved in a big EUR/JPY short - I was too. I was also shorting EUR/USD and GBP/USD at the same time. Between them I gathered close to a thousand pips. Obviously I was very pleased with that!! However, then comes the psych games - do I enter now or am I about to give back everything I just made!?!

Regards,

Dan
  • #922
  • Apr 3, 2009 12:29pm Apr 3, 2009 12:29pm
Quoting DanUK
Hi CW,

I've been lurking here at your excellent thread for a long time now soaking up all this great information so I thought it was time I joined in.

In response to your quesiton; my biggest hurdle, at the moment is (one I imagine a lot of traders share) entering my next trade after some really good action. For example, you were recently involved in a big EUR/JPY short - I was too. I was also shorting EUR/USD and GBP/USD at the same time. Between them I gathered close to a thousand pips. Obviously I was very pleased with that!! However, then...

For starters, congrats on that trade(s). That's great!

Let's use simple math, and perhaps this will help you. Let's say you account has 10k in it. With those three trades, you made $500 for a 5% return. If your risk profile is 1% per trade....you could give some back.... but how else are you going to make more?

If you were to gain 5%, then lose 1% over and over again - you would do well. You need to start thinking about your trading in overall terms. I am willing to bet that if your 401k (retirement account) gained 22% this year, you wouldn't care exactly how, and in what order. You need to think like that about your own trading. Always look at the big picture. (This is why I tend to "measure" my returns on a monthly basis, and don't worry so much about daily or even weekly.)

CW
  • #923
  • Apr 3, 2009 12:40pm Apr 3, 2009 12:40pm
Quoting clockwork71
Always look at the big picture. (This is why I tend to "measure" my returns on a monthly basis, and don't worry so much about daily or even weekly.)

CW
Hi CW,

Yes you're absolutely right - the big picture is what's important. It's easy to overlook that sometimes!

And as you said - if my retirement fund was to increase by 22% this year that would be great! I know that if I had that money invested in the banks at the moment it wouldn't be getting anywhere near that!!

Thanks!
  • #924
  • Apr 3, 2009 1:48pm Apr 3, 2009 1:48pm
A chart we were watching on Wednesday in my webinar. Needless to say, I didn't take this trade. Ugh. (Had to work on Thursday, and plain forgot about it!) I got reminded by an email that someone sent me with a thanks for helping them make a lot of money. Oh well.
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  • #925
  • Apr 3, 2009 1:50pm Apr 3, 2009 1:50pm
Quoting clockwork71
I think that's a difficult question, and here's why:

When we start out, the fear of "pulling the trigger" might be the biggest problem. After a few trades it might be letting a trade go. What I am getting at is that it changes as you evolve.

As you learn to trade, you will find different hurdles appear at different times. My biggest hurdle right now is funding. For example, if I had $250k to trade with, it would be my job. (If I chose for it to be.) I could make a living doing it, with little issues. Until then, I can only build this account....
For me the biggest hurdle is me. I find that I can provide reasonably accurate analysis, wait for confirmation and take a trade and manage it well. BUT sometimes I take trades that look OK and when I get stopped, I am frustrated as I knew that there were reasons not to take the trade. Then we have the flip side of that - thinking everything lines up, but not pulling the trigger because of one reason or other (perhaps a bad previous trade) and then seeing that trade take off without you.

for example:

i could take one less than great set up and get stopped out for minus 1%. Then a week/couple days later, I see a good set up, but do not get in as I start to doubt myself. This trade that i missed moves (what would have been 2.5%) in my direction.
so after these couple of weeks, i am down 1% instead of up 2.5%. that's a 3.5% difference. So patience pays off. In this example, it's my decision making that is wrong. I am able to identify a high probability trade which if half the battle. Only executing those trades is how we win the war. Executing lame trades and excellent trades is like taking my weapon and repeatedly shooting myself in the foot. By choosing less than excellent set ups I put myself in that twilight zone of being close to a scratch (break even) trader, of having to make up for poor trading decisions just to get back to where you started.

The hardest part of trading is sitting on your hands until that great trade set up comes around.
  • #926
  • Apr 3, 2009 1:58pm Apr 3, 2009 1:58pm
Quoting Dopped Onion
For me the biggest hurdle is me. I find that I can provide reasonably accurate analysis, wait for confirmation and take a trade and manage it well. BUT sometimes I take trades that look OK and when I get stopped, I am frustrated as I knew that there were reasons not to take the trade. Then we have the flip side of that - thinking everything lines up, but not pulling the trigger because of one reason or other (perhaps a bad previous trade) and then seeing that trade take off without you.

for example:

i could take one less than great set...

True, however remember that you are human. You will make mistakes. I promise you this. But with time and patience, the "mistakes" will be less and less.

But I once had a A++ setup in the USDCHF pair that I wanted to hold onto for months. Later that night the Swiss did a surprise interest rate cut, crushing my position. I was pissed.....but it didn't change the fact I took a great trade....but shit happens. That's the lesson.

Needless to say, I have made that money back several times over.......but at the time I was disappointed to say the least.
  • #927
  • Apr 3, 2009 2:47pm Apr 3, 2009 2:47pm
Quoting hel13rock
Hi all, I have read this thread from start to finish and it makes a lot of sense.

I have a question regarding s+r zones. I can identify s+r lines simply enough, ie, exact numbers that have acted as strong support or resistance in the past but I seem to have a few problems converting this into zones. I seem to end up with something looking like the attached chart.

Are these zones too wide? To my mind the major s+r levels are as on the second chart.

Is there a simple way to turn the lines into zones?

Thanks
I seem to be in the same boat
can anybody view hel13rocks post and help us out
thanks
  • #928
  • Apr 3, 2009 4:43pm Apr 3, 2009 4:43pm
Quoting blackdog
I seem to be in the same boat
can anybody view hel13rocks post and help us out
thanks
For starters, I would just draw lines. You are not looking for exact pip areas, just that if you get a pinbar at 1.50 for example, it should not bother you that the top of that bar might be at 1.5025....it's still the same "area". This is one of those things you just need to practice.....

This is so much easier to do live than in these posts......which brings me to the next post:
  • #929
  • Apr 3, 2009 4:44pm Apr 3, 2009 4:44pm
Doing my homework here trying to identify the next weekly levels upward. I've identified 138-140 area as a weekly PPZ. The next levels I find is the 148-150 area. Seems like a bunch of choppy noise between those two areas. I'd love to hear others' input
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  • #930
  • Apr 3, 2009 5:01pm Apr 3, 2009 5:01pm
I keep getting the same question from people in my message box. It is a variation of the following: "Do you have a chat room or live trading room?"

I do not. At all. I wouldn't have a live trading room under any circumstances. If I were to do that, then I might as well just sell trading signals. Basically you are asking me to make trades for you, if you want a live trading room. You want to see what I do, but what in the world would we talk about while waiting for a trade to set up? It might be 5 days after all.

Also, I have a business that isn't Forex. I have to leave the house randomly, so I wouldn't be able to set aside a specific few hours every morning. (For example.) Not to mention the first time I had a loss that someone else followed, I would certainly be told how evil I was.

As far as a chat room, I do not have one of those either.

The basic issues are as follows:

I would have to pay for this. I don't want to lose money in the process of all of this. I know it wouldn't break the bank, but something tells me I would be spending a lot of extra time with this if I had something like that going on. I can only imagine what would be said if I had to charge for my time and expenses. (Just from observation, I know people always have trouble understanding that someone else's time is worth money as well....) Sometimes being self-employed really sucks. You get to see some ugly sides to people.

Also, I am a Senior member at the James16 Group. Even if I did set up shop, so to speak....I would have to reconcile both responsibilities somehow. I am not sure how that would work, because I really do like my "work" there. I would not want to do anything to the detriment of his group. I think he's a great guy, and I like a lot of the guys/girls there.

In a nutshell, I could do this. I already do in many ways, and I bet I have about 30 hours or more of videos that I have done. I don't really do any of this for money, in fact....it's a game to me anymore. (Funny how not worrying about money tends to attract it.) I find this thread fun, but I have to admit it is difficult to get some things clear in comparison to a video I make. The last post was a perfect example. I have a 15 minute video that would solve that boy's issues I believe.

Writing it is a totally different game.

CW
  • #931
  • Apr 3, 2009 5:02pm Apr 3, 2009 5:02pm
Quoting Life of Pi_p
Doing my homework here trying to identify the next weekly levels upward. I've identified 138-140 area as a weekly PPZ. The next levels I find is the 148-150 area. Seems like a bunch of choppy noise between those two areas. I'd love to hear others' input
You will find that a lot of the chart is choppy noise. Especially when you zoom out like this. Amazing how difficult it is if you don't step back and look at the big picture.
  • #932
  • Apr 3, 2009 5:18pm Apr 3, 2009 5:18pm
Quoting Life of Pi_p
Doing my homework here trying to identify the next weekly levels upward. I've identified 138-140 area as a weekly PPZ. The next levels I find is the 148-150 area. Seems like a bunch of choppy noise between those two areas. I'd love to hear others' input

IMHO.

I used to primarly trade a version of this method independently from ff and it is fantastically "make sense" and i am glad to see people use it(j16 et al). here are the areas i would be targeting. this move is more so on a w1 tf however, i feel the m1 targets will stand. Should a d1 target react i would change my view on what tf this move is happening.

you may use the w1 targets and profit levels or for trade repositioning.

the highlighted bear bar indicates an eradication of sr. imo and if this is a M move it shold flow smoothly through it on the way up. if it doesn that is a clue.

also the second chart is the weekly version. the sr levels formed are clearly more applicable to a smaller tf and hence have no permanent sway on a w1 move. pauses. hiccups.. but not turns.

imo. also... if i am out of bounds i will most certainly cease and desist but this nq chart is an interesting correlator which one could trade equity correlated pairs from.

you may , with experience, further shore up your sls with tf scaling. If this helps i am glad, if not, i will politely, back out. thanks!



TK.
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  • #933
  • Apr 3, 2009 6:04pm Apr 3, 2009 6:04pm
Quoting ThomKnight
IMHO....
Those are great charts. I believe NQ is emini NASDAQ, correct?
  • #934
  • Apr 3, 2009 7:09pm Apr 3, 2009 7:09pm
Quoting clockwork71
Those are great charts. I believe NQ is emini NASDAQ, correct?
Absolutely.

all equity indices are more or less correlated, imo. So i look for the clearest, to me. NASDAQ just happens to be that one(for me).

I expect this move to change later this year, as of right now is is a bear market rally not a buy and hold, (for me) and this kind of futures chart helps me "time" my currency , commodity plays. for better or for worse. For futures traders this can be overlayed onto ES and YM.

This correlated desking has helped me in the past and might help someone else hold on to a good piece of real estate and not get faked out too soon regardless of trade management style. as always.. never let a (profit) trade go into the red. if you are right, you will get a better entry, imo.

Thanks for letting me post. Keep up the good work you will help build some fantastic traders here with this information. imo.

TK
  • #935
  • Apr 3, 2009 8:39pm Apr 3, 2009 8:39pm
hopefully this is not out of place.. but, I love this overall style of trading and this might be an interesting opportunity. it will correlate to the rest of the market as it relates to , at least gbp imo,if not usd. if it plays of course.

this is very amazing time to be trading. A make your "bones" time with the right set up.

this has sway over every descending time frame. even if you are not in a position to trade M1+ imo you can enter into the move off of a smaller tf.

as always thanks for letting me post. I dont want to dilute this thread.

TK
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  • #936
  • Apr 3, 2009 10:58pm Apr 3, 2009 10:58pm
Alright, first time attaching a chart go easy on me. Aud/Jpy does anyones line look like mine or did I mess it up? So the weekly printed a bullish outside bar, so here is the question. Im sure traders look at this and think buy, and that maybe a good idea. Or is it a better idea to see how the price will react when it hits that 38.2 fib line, which also has resistance at 75.00? Anyone? CW? Hope the chart comes through ok.
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  • #937
  • Apr 4, 2009 3:39am Apr 4, 2009 3:39am
Worthy of consideration?
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Those that can, do, those that can't, teach.
  • #938
  • Apr 4, 2009 4:13am Apr 4, 2009 4:13am
hi cw..do you agree with those zones and watching this pair?
thx
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  • #939
  • Apr 4, 2009 7:42am Apr 4, 2009 7:42am
Quoting ThomKnight
hopefully this is not out of place.. but, I love this overall style of trading and this might be an interesting opportunity. it will correlate to the rest of the market as it relates to , at least gbp imo,if not usd. if it plays of course....
It's alright that you post these, I like your input. It actually is similar to my line of thinking. (However, it's a little "advanced" for where I am at now.) But please.....keep posting!

As for this chart, I agree 110%. What does this chart say? In a word: Parabolic. Parabolic moves tend to snap back really hard....with the right signal, I am buying Pounds as fast as I can get them.

Great observation.

This is a great example of how monthly and weekly charts can guide us, but as traders we tend to overlook them.
  • #940
  • Apr 4, 2009 7:48am Apr 4, 2009 7:48am
Quoting TraderJSS
Alright, first time attaching a chart go easy on me. Aud/Jpy does anyones line look like mine or did I mess it up? So the weekly printed a bullish outside bar, so here is the question. Im sure traders look at this and think buy, and that maybe a good idea. Or is it a better idea to see how the price will react when it hits that 38.2 fib line, which also has resistance at 75.00? Anyone? CW? Hope the chart comes through ok.
As I have been saying - It is always better to wait for it to get to the zone, and see what it does. Patience.
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