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  • #1,541
  • Edited 6:10pm Apr 1, 2009 5:59pm | Edited 6:10pm
Quoting Naws
GBP/CHF

Looks like it is breaking out of the triangle wedge and is going to close above the 20 possibly the 50 too. Its in an area of some resistance right now due to the congestion in February.
Is there any possibility of trading this one?
There is but by the time you get some PA it will have to be a quickie - there is something BIG looming over head which you do not have on your charts. Strong Confluence Resistance at 1.6850
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,542
  • Apr 1, 2009 6:13pm Apr 1, 2009 6:13pm
Quoting strat
There is but by the time you get some PA it will have to be a quickie - there is something BIG looming over head which you do not have on your charts.
The BOSS MA? (edit: BOSS + 61.8 fib + res line) I have to get them on my charts. Unless it goes up and returns to test the trendline support I probably missed the trade because I cant really see any PA that might help, also with the nfp on friday and the boss overhead it might not be a good idea to get in.
  • #1,543
  • Apr 1, 2009 6:14pm Apr 1, 2009 6:14pm
Evening all......

Yeah about that bar on monday as i siad to "my eyes" it was a floater and didnt come anywhere near a long price action bar...........what else can i say.


Well with G20 and NFP im cooked all done for the week,shutting up shop.

Im gonna sort out the demo for oil....wish me luck guys
  • #1,544
  • Apr 1, 2009 6:18pm Apr 1, 2009 6:18pm
[quote=strat;2645337]
Quoting geoffrod
I was a little confussed about this, all the talk earlier in the week was that it was a floater, could be a continuation etc, when astondan brought it up.

[center][color=black][font=Verdana]Just taken a second look - I pulled fibs and it has bounced off 61.8% retrace and closed at 50% retrace BUT below support. The 20 and 50 are holding hands suggesting a biggish move from here. Another reason against this is, IF THEY MEAN ANYTHING, my long term cycle is topping and my short term cycle has bottomed. We also have a very wide...
Hey Strat,
i wasn't trying to point out mistakes, i was confussed, so i thought i would bring it up, but in doing so i re read your post, and realised you where pointing it out as not such a bad place, but still could go either way.

cheers
geoff
  • #1,545
  • Apr 1, 2009 6:24pm Apr 1, 2009 6:24pm
Quoting rogueforex
I am surprised Ms. Darksider has yet to post the shooting star on the U/C that just closed.
It is a good looking shooting star for sure but I am long USDCAD from last week and that good looking shooting star is not going to tempt me out (yet) or tempt me short! Momentum is momentum and the boss still says up to me!
Nice try, I heard it was April Fools today!!

Nicola
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  • #1,546
  • Apr 1, 2009 6:33pm Apr 1, 2009 6:33pm
There is a good looking hammer indicating a long on US crude tonight too.
I am not posting the chart because I am not recommending it.
If you are going to trade it as a daily hammer then I say it is a no go because of the risk:reward and because the weekly is very bearish.
The break of the hammer would be 48.80 and your stop would have to be about 165 pips below to cover the pin tail. There is major resistance at $50 which was tested a couple of times yesterday and held, so you are likely looking at 120 pips reward unless there is a major rally in equities and/or the US dollar falls off tomorrow.

Nicola
  • #1,547
  • Apr 1, 2009 6:37pm Apr 1, 2009 6:37pm
Tomorrow, in addition to the G20, there is an ECB press conference and Mr Trichet is speaking.
I do not recommend anyone trade the news but a rate cut or announcement is likely and that is probably the reason the Euro fell off this week and then flatlined.
Then there is NFP on Friday! Aaaargh
  • #1,548
  • Apr 1, 2009 6:51pm Apr 1, 2009 6:51pm
Quoting Naws
The BOSS MA? (edit: BOSS + 61.8 fib + res line) I have to get them on my charts. Unless it goes up and returns to test the trendline support I probably missed the trade because I cant really see any PA that might help, also with the nfp on friday and the boss overhead it might not be a good idea to get in.
Good thinking, Batman
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,549
  • Apr 1, 2009 7:31pm Apr 1, 2009 7:31pm
As I promised, I'll do my best to contribute and post possible setups here. Not sure if anyone following this pair but I see a very good potential setup on AUDCAD.

Attached is daily chart. Price is making HL-HH since October last year, so immediate trend is up (trendline, clearance off all MAs except one, HL-HH), but long-term trend is stil down, IMO.

Look where the current price is now. We have several confluences like long term resistance @0.88, weekly 50 MA @0.8790 and 61.8 ret. @ 0.8820.
So watch out for PA around 0.88, this area can be a new swing high and we may see a down move to 0.78-0.79 min.

Regards,
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  • #1,550
  • Apr 1, 2009 7:33pm Apr 1, 2009 7:33pm
Did you guys hear the news that came out today?

This is very bad for us traders, looks like we have to go out and find jobs

No more Forex, all this learning for nothing...

"President Obama, along with his counterparts in Canada and Mexico, is expected to hold a press conference at 1 p.m. Eastern today, April 1, to present the Amero. Amero coins and bills have been shipped to banks around the country"

"China's idea for a global reserve currency is ready to move forward. Insiders admit that the main focus of the G20 summit that starts tomorrow in London will be the adoption of a global reserve currency"

http://dailyforexnews.net/04/01/secr...rency-approved
  • #1,551
  • Apr 1, 2009 7:38pm Apr 1, 2009 7:38pm
Quoting Blackeagle
As I promised, I'll do my best to contribute and post possible setups here. Not sure if anyone following this pair but I see a very good potential setup on AUDCAD.

Attached is daily chart. Price is making HL-HH since October last year, so immediate trend is up (trendline, clearance off all MAs except one, HL-HH), but long-term trend is stil down, IMO.

Look where the current price is now. We have several confluences like long term resistance @0.88, weekly 50 MA @0.8790 and 61.8 ret. @ 0.8820.
So watch out for PA around 0.88, this area can be...
Thank you Blackeagle. It doesn't really matter what the pair is, it's the PA that we appreciate. My data on this pair doesn't start until Feb 12 this year so I am struggling for S & R and other history.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,552
  • Apr 1, 2009 7:43pm Apr 1, 2009 7:43pm
Cmon its not even April Fools anymore...

I wonder if anyone was stupid enough to believe this!

Quoting Naws
Did you guys hear the news that came out today?

This is very bad for us traders, looks like we have to go out and find jobs

No more Forex, all this learning for nothing...

"President Obama, along with his counterparts in Canada and Mexico, is expected to hold a press conference at 1 p.m. Eastern today, April 1, to present the Amero. Amero coins and bills have been shipped to banks around the country"

"China's idea for a global reserve currency[font=verdana,arial,helvetica,sans-serif][size=2]...
Lemming Forex! The Way to Trade....
  • #1,553
  • Apr 1, 2009 7:45pm Apr 1, 2009 7:45pm
Quoting Blackeagle
As I promised, I'll do my best to contribute and post possible setups here. Not sure if anyone following this pair but I see a very good potential setup on AUDCAD.

Attached is daily chart. Price is making HL-HH since October last year, so immediate trend is up (trendline, clearance off all MAs except one, HL-HH), but long-term trend is stil down, IMO.

Look where the current price is now. We have several confluences like long term resistance @0.88, weekly 50 MA @0.8790 and 61.8 ret. @ 0.8820.
So watch out for PA around 0.88, this area can be...
Blackeagle,

I think redrawing the fib from the close may give you a better look. I don't think that stop run last september should be taken into consideration.

That lines up a nice, monthly, weekly and daily SR onto the 61.8 fib. Take a look.

Good target, if we get PA.
  • #1,554
  • Apr 1, 2009 7:50pm Apr 1, 2009 7:50pm
I am very pleased to announce that Blackeagle is joining our team as a STRAT CERTIFIED TRAINER

Blackeagle is another full-time trader and Money Manager and trades forex and futures. Between 1991-2001, he worked as a fund manager for a big bank and was trading only stocks and bonds and managing $500M+ portfolio. Since 2001, he has been trading his own accounts and several private clients and working from home.

He has a couple of self developed trading strategies based on price action, and they are mechanical as he likes mechanical trading. He was involved with indicators in the past but is not using them anymore and strongly believes S/R lines, Price Action and Price patterns are the way to go.

Thank you for your contribution in helping other traders.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,555
  • Apr 1, 2009 7:59pm Apr 1, 2009 7:59pm
Quoting strat
I am very pleased to announce that Blackeagle is joining our team as a STRAT CERTIFIED TRAINER

Blackeagle is another full-time trader and Money Manager and trades forex and futures. Between 1991-2001, he worked as a fund manager for a big bank and was trading only stocks and bonds and managing $500M+ portfolio. Since 2001, he has been trading his own accounts and several private clients and working from home.

He has a couple of self developed trading strategies based on price action, and they are mechanical as he likes mechanical...
Congrats, BE!
  • #1,556
  • Apr 1, 2009 8:03pm Apr 1, 2009 8:03pm
Quoting rogueforex
Blackeagle,

I think redrawing the fib from the close may give you a better look. I don't think that stop run last september should be taken into consideration.

That lines up a nice, monthly, weekly and daily SR onto the 61.8 fib. Take a look.

Good target, if we get PA.
Agree with that down spike and as you can see I haven't taken that into consideration while drawing 0.7550 S line. You can redraw the fib from close, but that will take 61.8 to 0.8950 and I don't see any S around that area except 2004 whereas 0.8800 served as support and resistance since 1998. But anyway, this is the art part of technical analysis and seeing a bearish PA around these areas would trigger a short with a very good trade management, IMO.
  • #1,557
  • Apr 1, 2009 8:08pm Apr 1, 2009 8:08pm
Quoting strat
Thank you Blackeagle. It doesn't really matter what the pair is, it's the PA that we appreciate. My data on this pair doesn't start until Feb 12 this year so I am struggling for S & R and other history.
Yes Strat, most MT4s do not have much historical data especially on crosses like this, though IBFX goes back to June 2005 on AUDCAD. I am downloading daily OHLC data from a data vendor for my forex and futures trades and doing analysis on Metastock.
  • #1,558
  • Apr 1, 2009 8:54pm Apr 1, 2009 8:54pm
Quoting rogueforex
Fresh out of the oven with all the new stories, quotes and quips.

Even G's...

The next project is to add a translator to the index to cut down the time it takes to decipher G's posts.
Hei Lance

I just following up this tread and think that the index created by you is helping a lot . Can I know which excell version you are using to creating it? The file that I download to was showing an error message. Probably due to that I am using an excel version 2002. May be that I need to upgrade my version to be same as yours.

Again thanks as lot Lance and also to those contibuting to this tread. Right now I am following up 3 treads closely i.e Jacko, James16 & Strat's.

Nazeri
  • #1,559
  • Apr 1, 2009 9:07pm Apr 1, 2009 9:07pm
Dear Strat,

Books and preachers of candlestick highlighted that on our GBPJPY is a long legged doji or hanging man (depends on broker feeds).

I took my long on monday at (sorry for ignoring the daily close rule as my gut was allowing me to pursue it plus no stress on butt ring either) 136.76.

My analysis was :- (to wait)

1) the price hit the ema 50 on the 12/3/2009 and the abrupt price on monday may hit another 50's wall as well. (lucky me it did).

2) Good parallel line of the 20 & 50 to north. thus indicated the UT moves still on.

3) 23/3/2009 has made a new HH and the move downward is a retracement.


I pocketed 50% at 140.63 and move my SL and another 25% at 142.41. and the balance in still running.

WHEN? I'm I suppose to aboard the train? As the hanging man today made my butt ring tremble a bit.

cheers and regards
  • #1,560
  • Apr 1, 2009 9:21pm Apr 1, 2009 9:21pm
Quoting Blackeagle
Agree with that down spike and as you can see I haven't taken that into consideration while drawing 0.7550 S line. You can redraw the fib from close, but that will take 61.8 to 0.8950 and I don't see any S around that area except 2004 whereas 0.8800 served as support and resistance since 1998. But anyway, this is the art part of technical analysis and seeing a bearish PA around these areas would trigger a short with a very good trade management, IMO.
Definitely an art not a science.

I had this...
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