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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #25,701
  • Apr 1, 2009 5:14pm Apr 1, 2009 5:14pm
Quoting raczekfx
Imho, we'll see a retrace to about 2630/40 before it breaks tomorrow... (or small break and retrace to area mentioned and then hard break to 2450)
I could see this happening too . . . maybe uncle bucky will surprise us and tank during the Asian session . . .
"Don't trade to trade . . . trade to win." - James16
  • #25,702
  • Apr 1, 2009 5:16pm Apr 1, 2009 5:16pm
Quoting jarroo
Location, location, location. Real estate and trading my friend. PPZ, shape and fibs mean nothing if its not at a swing High or Low. That one is in the middle.
USDCAD is not the swing high and you like it?
I thought good location doesn't mean only swing high or low but PPZ and fib ret. mean something. My mistake.
  • #25,703
  • Apr 1, 2009 5:26pm Apr 1, 2009 5:26pm
Quoting raczekfx
Imho, we'll see a retrace to about 2630/40 before it breaks tomorrow... (or small break and retrace to area mentioned and then hard break to 2450)
Rac,
I would assume you would enter on the retrace at 2630/2640? It coincides with 50Fib and PPZ (I mean the 2630/40 area, not the PB as the PB itself off from PPZ and 61.8Fib) - Good confluences. Or you had already in from 2720 Just my assumption.

Thanks Rac!
  • #25,704
  • Apr 1, 2009 5:30pm Apr 1, 2009 5:30pm
Quoting jlmac27
Hello Alter,
I see where you came from on this trade.Look at the area you were trading into though.It had no room to run.You were aiming for the bar highs....but don't forget about the bar lows.
This post is so simple with just one line and a few blue boxes that tell a huge story and something that happens over and over though. You all could learn a boat load from just that one chart on what to look out for. Nice post Jlmac(JMACK if I may )
  • #25,705
  • Apr 1, 2009 5:40pm Apr 1, 2009 5:40pm
Quoting ghous
It was pretty decent IMO.

It was a nice nice reaction off the 9320 region once price closed below this region with a BEOB there was little doubt as to where price should head next,

we know our direction we then look for our trigger, found it...and BANG!...goes the gun shot

Regards,
Ghous.
Hi ghous!

I took the exact same trade looking that there was an opportunity to go till last swing lows

Mike!

I am improving in the "space"
  • #25,706
  • Apr 1, 2009 5:42pm Apr 1, 2009 5:42pm
Quoting DanUK
Hi guys,

I'm glad you're discussing the U/C possibility as I've been staring at the screen for the last couple of hours considering what to do!

It looks like a fairly good pin to me at a a good level of resistance - I'm thinking first obstacle at about 1.2500 and if it makes it through the next area of concern should be around 1.2400.

Any other thoughts on this?

Regards,

Dan
I just thought I would throw out my view on this one as I got a bunch of emails about this one.

Is the bar a real nice BAR. Yes nice shape, good open close, nice long nose.

Is the location ideal enough to trade? Sure maybe. Is it worth it to me. Nope.

Onto the whys, and where it might still visit. Is it off some resistance yes you can see it is. But the usd/cad has been wedging up(see chart 1). This indicates consolidating market, which they do most of the time. Now the more this thing consolidates into that wedge, the more choppy price will move(because things are tightening up). Another way too look at this is lack of space. Or trading into a strong arae.

On my chart you can see the 1.25 is a heavy area of interest, or a PPZ. So you are trading directly INTO a large area. So what does this mean? IMO it means if you decide after all this it is still worth trading, that your stop loss gets to b/e ASAP. You don't get fance, you respect what is under you and understand if it does move down lower to this area(which is a zone I tried to mark from the bar highs with the arrrows, all the way down to the 1.25 big round number itself), that it CAN/WILL/MIGHT bounce at anytime within this "zone". So you move your stops, you take your profit, you do something to respect that zone.

Just thought I would make a post to help with my emails

Best
Mike
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  • #25,707
  • Apr 1, 2009 5:42pm Apr 1, 2009 5:42pm
Quoting alter
USDCAD is not the swing high and you like it?
I thought good location doesn't mean only swing high or low but PPZ and fib ret. mean something. My mistake.
Here is my take. I hope that I help you with this chart. I see that the Pin is off PPZ and resistance. My only concern is that I see a possible stumbling block at the 1.2543 area. I'll let this one break and then pull back before entering. This will lower my risk. If she breaks and runs without a retrace, I'll be very happy for all of those who made money. Good luck!
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  • #25,708
  • Apr 1, 2009 5:45pm Apr 1, 2009 5:45pm
Gotta go out for a few hours, but wanted to post my March results.
As most of you know, I'm trying to follow the James16 minimum requirements to a 'T'. Trading only Day/Weekly. Doing my best to only take A setups. Getting better at that.

Feb: 13/16 winners, 8+% account gain
Mar: 13/15 winners, 2+% account gain (different exit strategy, more like J16's)
April: ...
May: Live with small account if April is positive.

I'll be giving an update to my testing of exit strategies later this week or maybe on the weekend. I'm also done backtesting, but again, that is for another post.

I like the USD/CAD pinbar, with the good PPZ (bar lows from early March) and FIB levels... 1.25ish target (previous bar low).

Over and out,

Josh
  • #25,709
  • Apr 1, 2009 5:58pm Apr 1, 2009 5:58pm
Quoting Jduester
Gotta go out for a few hours, but wanted to post my March results.
As most of you know, I'm trying to follow the James16 minimum requirements to a 'T'. Trading only Day/Weekly. Doing my best to only take A setups. Getting better at that.

Feb: 13/16 winners, 8+% account gain
Mar: 13/15 winners, 2+% account gain (different exit strategy, more like J16's)
April: ...
May: Live with small account if April is positive.

I'll be giving an update to my testing of exit strategies later this week or maybe on the weekend. I'm also done backtesting, but...
JD,
Great job!You have really put forth the work involved here.I elect you "the most likely to achieve!"


Mike,
"JMACK" it is LOL!
I have put a lot of time into this....charts....james16 thread....The puzzle is getting closer...Thanks all!
  • #25,710
  • Apr 1, 2009 6:00pm Apr 1, 2009 6:00pm
Quoting mbqb11
I just thought I would throw out my view on this one as I got a bunch of emails about this one....
Really appreciate it mike, now I know where that "iffy look" is coming from.

I thought there was something missing until I see your trendline drawn there, I should've put some on my charts too, I guess, I think yesterday I was putting them on my charts to start learning from them, now I wonder where did that went?

There's just too many walls to overcome under the forest of 1.250-1.254 IMO, so I've decided that it doesn't fit my risk profile.

Cheers to an iffy look

marcel
  • #25,711
  • Apr 1, 2009 6:04pm Apr 1, 2009 6:04pm
Just noticed a nice 2 day pin on the EUR/CHF. Location looks good with price closing above 1.5150. Entry would be around 1.5205 for me.
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  • #25,712
  • Apr 1, 2009 6:12pm Apr 1, 2009 6:12pm
Quoting Jduester
Gotta go out for a few hours, but wanted to post my March results.
As most of you know, I'm trying to follow the James16 minimum requirements to a 'T'....
Great results, patience and persistence is rewarded. Im in the process of going back through some pairs on Weekly/Daily TF's for a few years looking at PA bars and PZ's as well as retracements (for entry), im hoping seeing consistent patterns will reinforce confidence. Will try and record the results.
Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
  • #25,713
  • Apr 1, 2009 6:14pm Apr 1, 2009 6:14pm
Thanks for the update Josh. I am on a similar schedule with yours and have about 2 and 1/2 months under my belt trading a small micro account in the Daily/Weekly timeframes.

My March results were much better than my Feb results however ( I think March +5% and Feb maybe +1-2% doing about 10 to 15 trades a month, almost the inverse of yours.

I am also experimenting with different exit strategies. Needless to say this is the trickiest part. I tested what would have happened in the last 2 months if I placed my stop loss at the 50% Fib retracement (rather than at the top of the Pin) of a Pin/OB and obviously I got more losers, however my overall results improved because the winners became larger because if I had 1/2 the pip risk I could double my original position for the same $ risk as a % of my account.

I will be very interested to learn what you find with your testing when you have them ready.

Rubin.


Quoting Jduester
Gotta go out for a few hours, but wanted to post my March results.
As most of you know, I'm trying to follow the James16 minimum requirements to a 'T'....
  • #25,714
  • Apr 1, 2009 6:16pm Apr 1, 2009 6:16pm
Quoting arcus
Rac,
I would assume you would enter on the retrace at 2630/2640? It coincides with 50Fib and PPZ (I mean the 2630/40 area, not the PB as the PB itself off from PPZ and 61.8Fib) - Good confluences. Or you had already in from 2720 Just my assumption.

Thanks Rac!
No, I'm not in yet.
I'm watching 8 others us/based crosses to tip me off when the us weakness kicks in...
It could be either at the area mentioned or a pin break. I have no means to know.. just reading the 'tape' for now.
  • #25,715
  • Apr 1, 2009 6:21pm Apr 1, 2009 6:21pm
Quoting raczekfx
Imho, we'll see a retrace to about 2630/40 before it breaks tomorrow... (or small break and retrace to area mentioned and then hard break to 2450)
Wow . . . You was that masked man? lol
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #25,716
  • Apr 1, 2009 6:21pm Apr 1, 2009 6:21pm
Hi all.

I just wanted to share with you that I learned a good lesson last night, and luckily didn’t lose any money. The euro dropped like a rock right to the support trendline that I was looking for, and it rejected hard off it, and I was afraid it wouldn’t come back around and re-test it. So I saw it start to move down towards it again, but it was struggling. I figured I would just get in long, in case it couldn’t push lower and took off north, even though we were about 50 pips above the trendline, and I set my stop for 1.31650, which gave me about 10 pips of room below the hard-rejected low. So I got in long and 30 seconds later it started to plummet. I had to walk away from my computer because I got so stressed watching it go against me. It passed the hard-rejected low, and went to 1.31655. A mere ½ pip above my stop, and then bounced up. The bulls and the bears fought it out for 3 hours, with the bulls slowly winning. There were 2 H1 candles that were slightly bullish, but huge wicks on the top and the bottom. Higher highs/lows on each. It was a helluva battle. And then an inside bar on the H1, with only a really long tail downward, no tail upward. That meant the sellers had given up. The next bar it flew upwards and within 5 hours was 80 pips higher. I got out at the 50% fib of the drop, for a 40 pip profit. But I had also been ½ of a pip away from a 1% loss. Way too close for comfort.

Had I the virtue of patience yet, I would have waited until it had retested the trendline and the battle had exhausted itself and there was only the pin bar that was an inside bar. I would have had to put 40 pips on the line, instead of the 48 pips that I did. That would have also meant that I could have traded a 0.9 lot instead of the 0.8 lot that I did. 0.8 lots was my 1% limit at 48 pips. 0.9 lots would have been 1% at 40 pips. So I would have made more money, 9/8’s to be precise, not including the extra pips from the lower entry point, AND THE TRADE WOULD HAVE NEVER GONE AGAINST ME!

Patience, patience, patience. I learned that I will know the right bar to get into when I see it. It will scream at you that the direction has been determined. Price Action is so cool!!!

Brian
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  • #25,717
  • Edited 7:29pm Apr 1, 2009 6:27pm | Edited 7:29pm
Quoting alter
USDCAD is not the swing high and you like it?
I thought good location doesn't mean only swing high or low but PPZ and fib ret. mean something. My mistake.
If that Eur/Gbp 2 Day PB was a bearish one instead of a bullish one then we would have something to considered.

The Cad is at a swing High and the PB is a bearish one. Its not at thee High or the Highs of the year(s). That would be better.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #25,718
  • Apr 1, 2009 6:37pm Apr 1, 2009 6:37pm
Quoting mbqb11
I just thought I would throw out my view on this one as I got a bunch of emails about this one.

Is the bar a real nice BAR. Yes nice shape, good open close, nice long nose.

Is the location ideal enough to trade? Sure maybe. Is it worth it to me. Nope.

Onto the whys, and where it might still visit. Is it off some resistance yes you can see it is. But the usd/cad has been wedging up(see chart 1). This indicates consolidating market, which they do most of the time. Now the more this thing consolidates into that wedge, the more choppy price...
Wow . . what he said.

I may take this one, with all things considered by Mike, I will let the break be my final confirmation on how long I hold this trade.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #25,719
  • Edited 6:49pm Apr 1, 2009 6:38pm | Edited 6:49pm
US/CAD to 2400? Looks like the next PZ on daily? 2500 looks like a point of trouble also. Im in at break, but moving to BE quickly and taking profit around 2500 (Demo).
Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
  • #25,720
  • Apr 1, 2009 6:50pm Apr 1, 2009 6:50pm
Quoting raczekfx
No, I'm not in yet.
I'm watching 8 others us/based crosses to tip me off when the us weakness kicks in...
It could be either at the area mentioned or a pin break. I have no means to know.. just reading the 'tape' for now.
Thanks Rac. Thought you was in since the retest of the break (studied your past charts and one of your method is retest entry like Mike). I am myself waiting for yen crosses breakout. I have few questions actually mostly about stop loss placement but I'll PM you later if you don't mind Thanks again!
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