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  • #1,521
  • Apr 1, 2009 3:28pm Apr 1, 2009 3:28pm
Thanks Strat. Really glad you just said that. A new tick goes in the box towards my understanding of everything.

My initial risk is seen as my investment cost for the trade. As you've said, i'm prepared to lose that from the off (personally been risking 1% until most recently where I move to .3% due to confidence knock)

I guess at the end of the year I could look back on my trades, and my system and if successful subscribe an R:R to it, but until that point it does seem rather silly. Certainly it has to be a backward looking reflection on a system, not a rule to the actual system.

You definitely know where i'm "at" presently. I'll get there in the end!

Thanks.

Quoting strat
Stuart,

You are talking common sense which many "so called traders" have little of or don't know how to deal with. They get so wrapped up in their "trading world" they forget to apply or even think common sense.

What you have stated here are facts which no-one can dispute. If you go back and read some of my answers and posts, you will see I say the same things.

I personally don't use R/R - if I did, I would probably never take a trade.
I do start out with risk no more than 2% of my account.

Cutting your losses - it's part of my plan...
  • #1,522
  • Apr 1, 2009 3:28pm Apr 1, 2009 3:28pm
NO PA but an interesting level for EURGBP?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurgbp04.01.09.jpg Size: 103 KB


A southern break would also be the break of a BOSS IB although price is still above the BOSS 20
  • #1,523
  • Apr 1, 2009 3:29pm Apr 1, 2009 3:29pm
I would quote, but the passage is just too big to even bother with. Most of my questions were already answered, except one...

When you are trading, nothing is for certain. Do you enter the market in phase one, or phase two?

Is that answerable? I can rephrase if necessary. It's also very possible your answer will be that it depends on the Queen, at the risk of being told to reread everything.
Bang.
  • #1,524
  • Apr 1, 2009 3:32pm Apr 1, 2009 3:32pm
Piercing line.

http://img167.imageshack.us/img167/9585/chfjpy.gif
Bang.
  • #1,525
  • Apr 1, 2009 3:41pm Apr 1, 2009 3:41pm
Quoting AminAS
I would quote, but the passage is just too big to even bother with. Most of my questions were already answered, except one...

When you are trading, nothing is for certain. Do you enter the market in phase one, or phase two?

Is that answerable? I can rephrase if necessary. It's also very possible your answer will be that it depends on the Queen, at the risk of being told to reread everything.
Phase 1
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,526
  • Edited 3:56pm Apr 1, 2009 3:45pm | Edited 3:56pm
Good evening Team Strat (well those of you on my time)

Can a sloping resistance line become support (or can cable be starting to change its trend). The 20 & 50 are entwined with the slightest hint of an upward direction & price is above them, but below the BOSS 20 who is presently heading south east rather than south

Dan, did you take this trade from Monday?

best to all
Paul
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp usd daily 010409.gif Size: 25 KB
  • #1,527
  • Edited 4:09pm Apr 1, 2009 3:47pm | Edited 4:09pm
Quoting PaulKing

Dan, did you take this trade from Monday?
Which trade Paul? The Cable hammer? No i didn't. Why did you buy where you did? (if you don't mind me asking)
  • #1,528
  • Apr 1, 2009 4:22pm Apr 1, 2009 4:22pm
Quoting strat
Congratulations, Dennis. Is this demo or real money?
Demo account, i will start with real money when i'm succesfull for 3 months plus. Doing the neccessary practising.

Less is more !
  • #1,529
  • Apr 1, 2009 4:28pm Apr 1, 2009 4:28pm
I am surprised Ms. Darksider has yet to post the shooting star on the U/C that just closed.
  • #1,530
  • Apr 1, 2009 4:34pm Apr 1, 2009 4:34pm
[quote=strat;2642118]141.80 is only very minor resistance and will only cause a wobble at the most. The next major resistance is at psycho 145.00. Have you identified it? Can you see it? Are you comfortable in identifying S&R? If not, throw up some charts with your S&R on for us to critique.

Channels - these are only as accurate as the wicks and tails which, in my mind, do not represent "true market sentiment". I see wicks and tails as stop over runs by brokers and MMs and definitely on occassions, stop running by MMs. These are a few of the reasons why the CLOSE is the most important price to me.

Anyway, if I was to draw a channel to accurately represent "true market action", it would be a curve which is now flattening out at the top - can you see it now? If so, what is this telling you?

Yes, I can see what you mean now, the last swing high is key to both points:
The ‘curvature’ of the top of my channel would neatly contact that 145 as it flattens said channel upper line out
The very fact it’s the most recent swing high, and a ‘round’ psycho number adds to its weight
Probably a good idea to post a few charts for comment though, I think I understand basic S/R, but I’m not too confident on the difference between major & minor. The way to test my knowledge is to put something out there for everyone to criticise

Remember that JPY pairs follow their leader, USDJPY, so always look to see what she is doing before trading any JPY pair.

""I omitted to say in my initial post that the stop size is too big for me to consider taking a trade from this PA anyway,""

This is, by far, your biggest step forward, Paul, congratulations. You are already ahead of most of your fellow traders by putting RISK and LOSS before profit when considering a trade.

I'm beginning to get a warm, fuzzy feeling for you now, Paul, which is far better than the one you gave me at the other place. Thanks!

I’m pleased you are seeing some promise from me, that’s a big boost to my confidence, thank you. I feel happier too, your post about harmonics made a lot of sense, on the shorter time frames I was always thinking that I was missing a set up somewhere & didn’t have the time to look at all of my charts, it was stressful even when I was at work & not able to access any charts. I was always thinking I was missing that great opportunity.

With the daily I can browse through for an hour before I go to sleep, if there is a setup I can place an order if not I don’t (there may very well be one somewhat clearer tomorrow). I don’t even think about what might be going on throughout the day (have I been filled, stopped out etc?) until I take a look the next night.

Which for anyone that took the GBP JPY hammer on Monday could now move the stop up to BE imo, or taking your point about USD JPY close the trade out

Best to all
Paul
  • #1,531
  • Edited 4:46pm Apr 1, 2009 4:45pm | Edited 4:46pm
Quoting AstonDan
Which trade Paul? The Cable hammer? No i didn't. Why did you buy where you did? (if you don't mind me asking)
Looks like he bought at the safest, lowest risk place - above the high of the hammer and above the 20.

Paul - If you had used the close to draw your trend line, you would have seen where the REAL support is/was.

Also, note a broad - type coil thing forming. Will the upper coil line hold - need to watch what happens around that price. Note where that upper line is and the BOSS 20

Nicely done, Paul
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd apr 01 09.gif Size: 31 KB
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,532
  • Apr 1, 2009 4:56pm Apr 1, 2009 4:56pm
Quoting strat
Looks like he bought at the safest, lowest risk place - above the high of the hammer and above the 20.

Paul - If you had used the close to draw your trend line, you would have seen where the REAL support is/was.

Also, note a broad - type coil thing forming. Will the upper coil line hold - need to watch what happens around that price. Note where that upper line is and the BOSS 20

Nicely done, Paul
Great SR lines. I put it up against my chart and I was spot on for all but two. That feels good. VERY valuable chart, thanks.
  • #1,533
  • Apr 1, 2009 5:08pm Apr 1, 2009 5:08pm
Quoting rogueforex
I am surprised Ms. Darksider has yet to post the shooting star on the U/C that just closed.
Not a shooting star on my data feed but very dark cloud cover at resistance and 61.8% retrace - I wonder if this means anything? Now where did I put Strat's "Get the Hell out of Dodge" book?
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,534
  • Edited 5:59pm Apr 1, 2009 5:10pm | Edited 5:59pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad apr 1.gif Size: 24 KB


These last two candles really show the indecision and equilibrium between the bulls and bears

With the NFP coming on friday, hopefully the market should start moving again
  • #1,535
  • Edited 6:02pm Apr 1, 2009 5:18pm | Edited 6:02pm
Quoting strat
Looks like he bought at the safest, lowest risk place - above the high of the hammer and above the 20.

Paul - If you had used the close to draw your trend line, you would have seen where the REAL support is/was.

Also, note a broad - type coil thing forming. Will the upper coil line hold - need to watch what happens around that price. Note where that upper line is and the BOSS 20

Nicely done, Paul

I was a little confussed about this, all the talk earlier in the week was that it was a floater, could be a continuation etc, when astondan brought it up.

Mar 31, 2009 5:28am


AstonDan
Member


Member Since Mar 2009
125 Posts


Cable


Evening all,


I'm seeing quite a nice looking hammer forming on Cable Daily just below an S/R level at 1.4300 and the 20EMA.


Does anyone have any thoughts/opinions on this? I'm tempted to play it the usual hammer way.


Cheers
Dan
__________________


Mar 31, 2009 5:31am

Baba G
PRICE ACTION IS KING.


Member Since Sep 2006
335 Posts


not for me pal.......its floating like a little poo.


Maybe with "candle eyes" its a good thing?


sorry bro cant help.........g

p.s pupil of the week that is

Last edited by Baba G, Mar 31, 2009 5:32am Reason: p.s pupil of the week that is

Mar 31, 2009 5:40am
AstonDan

Member


Member Since Mar 2009
125 Posts


Cable Chart


With 'candle eyes' BG

__________________

Mar 31, 2009 5:44am
Baba G

PRICE ACTION IS KING.


Member Since Sep 2006
335 Posts


Nope........still dont mean anything to me.....sorry


But with "bar eyes" its no good.....maybe at close........g


P.S Like that Strat? Or Did you have another idea in mind for the instuctor name thing?
Mar 31, 2009 5:48am


strat
Trader helping Traders


Member Since Feb 2009
553 Posts


Quote:
Originally Posted by AstonDan
With 'candle eyes' BG


Attachment 226027
Don't touch it Dan. Like Baba G says, "It's a FLOATER" - it will probably end up being a continuation bar.


NOTE TO EVERYONE:
When asking questions about something on your charts - ALWAYS post your chart - we cannot refer to ours because of different data feeds


Just taken a second look - I pulled fibs and it has bounced off 61.8% retrace and closed at 50% retrace BUT below support. The 20 and 50 are holding hands suggesting a biggish move from here. Another reason against this is, IF THEY MEAN ANYTHING, my long term cycle is topping and my short term cycle has bottomed. We also have a very wide coil forming. I think the train is on the turntable.
__________________


until i went back and re-read what strat had written on the end of his post just above,
I liked it at the time, and took the trade, i may not have analysed it well enough, but at a glance it seemed ok, and knowing what is at risk and being happy with that is key.

Now back to the lines

cheers
geoff
  • #1,536
  • Edited 6:04pm Apr 1, 2009 5:47pm | Edited 6:04pm
Quoting AstonDan
Which trade Paul? The Cable hammer? No i didn't. Why did you buy where you did? (if you don't mind me asking)
Hi Dan

Many thanks for the question, my explanation will enable more experienced traders to point out what I have got right & what I got wrong. Thus accelerating my learning curve.

My plan was thus:
The hammer posted on Monday indicated rejection of lower prices (almost a S/R level I had @ 1.41)
The rejection was also between the 50% & 62% fib of the previous uptrend (I'd read on one of the J16 postings that some traders favour the area in between these fib levels for retracements, which with PA indicate a return to the previous direction)
I also noticed that the usual trigger point for the hammer was going straight into another S/R level I had (see arrows added to the left on my chart @1.435), which was also the 38% fib and the 20ma
This lead me to think the hammer could just be a continuation type (ie continue the down trend), that could 'trigger' but then hit the S/R level & head back south, especially as price closed below the 20.
So I thought I would only enter (long) if the price broke my S/R & fib level

With the benefit of hindsight, I now think I should have waited to have seen a close above my S/R level, and more confirmatory PA that the hammer was a swing low.

I'd be interested to learn from all criticism of my plan. Just read the R/R piece Strat posted I doubt any 'pro's' would have been interested in this one as I only assessed 1:1ish

In terms of management I am moving my stop up to the bottom of the previous days close, so am still not yet in a Bg 'free trade'. From my understanding of J16 trading I should be moving (infact should have moved yesterday) to BE, as I am potentially letting a winning trade reverse and become a loser. However I am on demo and trying to learn what works for me

best
Paul
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cable daily mondays hammer.gif Size: 26 KB
  • #1,537
  • Apr 1, 2009 5:49pm Apr 1, 2009 5:49pm
GBP/CHF

Looks like it is breaking out of the triangle wedge and is going to close above the 20 possibly the 50 too. Its in an area of some resistance right now due to the congestion in February.
Is there any possibility of trading this one?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpchf apr 1.gif Size: 26 KB
  • #1,538
  • Apr 1, 2009 5:53pm Apr 1, 2009 5:53pm
[quote=geoffrod;2645299]I was a little confussed about this, all the talk earlier in the week was that it was a floater, could be a continuation etc, when astondan brought it up.

Just taken a second look - I pulled fibs and it has bounced off 61.8% retrace and closed at 50% retrace BUT below support. The 20 and 50 are holding hands suggesting a biggish move from here. Another reason against this is, IF THEY MEAN ANYTHING, my long term cycle is topping and my short term cycle has bottomed. We also have a very wide coil forming. I think the train is on the turntable.
__________________


until i went back and re-read what strat had written on the end of his post just above,
I liked it at the time, and took the trade, i may not have analysed it well enough, but at a glance it seemed ok, and knowing what is at risk and being happy with that is key.

Geoff, thanks for reminding me about this. My response to Dan's post # 1363 on the hammer bar has been giving me a couple of sleepless nights and I keep meaning to post about it and for one reason and another, get distracted.

When I posted my first response to # 1363, I was busy and in the middle of something but wanted to get my answer in. I took a quick glance at Dan's chart, saw the hammer was way above HIS resistance then saw Baba G's floater post and just confirmed it.

Then, when I had chance, I pulled up MY chart with MY resistance on and saw what you see in my latest post on GBPUSD - talk about egg on your face!

So, to everyone, I APOLOGISE, I took the easy way out. I will not do it again and will always check my charts first before answering. It may slow my response down, but at least it will be accurate.

Thanks for your understanding and my apologies again
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,539
  • Apr 1, 2009 5:55pm Apr 1, 2009 5:55pm
Quoting Naws
Attachment

These last two candles really show the indecision and equilibrium between the bulls and bears

With the NFP coming tomorrow, hopefully the market should start moving again
NFP is on Friday
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,540
  • Apr 1, 2009 5:58pm Apr 1, 2009 5:58pm
Quoting strat
NFP is on Friday
Ahh I thought it was thursday already
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