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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #25,661
  • Apr 1, 2009 5:35am Apr 1, 2009 5:35am
Quoting jarroo
I know this was at 35 pip/ break even trade for you KissFan. You managed the trade perfectly in my book.

You initially analysis was, as it turns out, right on the mark. As it should be because it was top notch.

Your next one will go to the moon.
GBPUSD - That .44 level that stood out was where it was at in the end.

I have been trying to post all morning, my internet is very crap of late. Got it sorted now methinks.
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  • #25,662
  • Apr 1, 2009 6:00am Apr 1, 2009 6:00am
Quoting alter
I think you know why. Lower SL and better RRR . If I enter on the break of the entry bar I usually get stop out for big loss, or take small profit.
If you enter on ret and you are stop out , you would be stop out on the other entry as well, but if you are right , profit potential is much bigger. That is just my opinion, so Im asking how you manage this kind of entries.
thank you
Hey,

Well first of all if you are picking the best trades they 95% of the time do what you expect them to do.

If you go and backtest a few years of Daily charts the setups do exactly as they say on the tin. Literally . . it is very rare that anything unexpected happens. It's when I did this, that I got truly confident in the ability of this stuff to work.

As for retracing I personally don't enter blind on a retrace, if I am waiting for something on a lower TF then it has it's own set of rules for an entry on that timeframe which has to be good.



I have a daily chart of GBPUSD explaining this a bit better

The best set ups are not only in space in terms of where they are , but they have space to move into as in the first Pin bar. I personally only took the first pin bar because it all looks a bit sideways for my taste on the most recent one and I did not like the mumble jumble to the left of it.

The best set ups usually have good R:R.

James16 has a good post on this and I think it's linked off of the front page.

EDIT - Here is the post - http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=23711 , if you have not read it yet.

Regards
Jig
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  • #25,663
  • Apr 1, 2009 6:21am Apr 1, 2009 6:21am
Quoting alter
I think you know why. Lower SL and better RRR . If I enter on the break of the entry bar I usually get stop out for big loss, or take small profit.
If you enter on ret and you are stop out , you would be stop out on the other entry as well, but if you are right , profit potential is much bigger. That is just my opinion, so Im asking how you manage this kind of entries.
thank you
I've asked about RRR awhile ago and I've got an answer that stated that a lot of Jim's (James16) trades don't have a really good R:R if you look prior to the trade, but due to the statistical facts that even with 3:1 Risk/Reward, with any accuracy above 80%, you will make money in the long run, and when Jigsaw stated that the trades have 95% accuracy, it just beat the hell out of Risk/Reward, I think he's just too busy making money to think about it lol.

also, as time permits, we will get better in the long run, I can only imagine what gets better than 95% accuracy on trades?

another prespective about Risk/Reward Ratio, I've always liked how Charles Gann (Diallist) explained them and I've consistently believed in this prespective more than anything else.

Here's a link to the thread.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=8884

Hope that helps.

Marcel
  • #25,664
  • Apr 1, 2009 6:43am Apr 1, 2009 6:43am
Marcel, Jig thank you for your comments.
if I have 95% hit rate it wouldn't be issue. But I have maybe 70-75%. I will post some A trades that will be stop out shortly.
So your entry is the break of the bar and you don't wait for ret?
  • #25,665
  • Apr 1, 2009 7:03am Apr 1, 2009 7:03am
Quoting alter
Marcel, Jig thank you for your comments.
if I have 95% hit rate it wouldn't be issue. But I have maybe 70-75%. I will post some A trades that will be stop out shortly.
So your entry is the break of the bar and you don't wait for ret?
I never personally enter on a blind retrace. Not that it a) can't be done and b) can't be done profitably.

Looking forward to your charts.
  • #25,666
  • Apr 1, 2009 7:15am Apr 1, 2009 7:15am
I will post charts when trades are stop out. It may takes some time as it is on weekly/daily timeframe.
  • #25,667
  • Apr 1, 2009 7:15am Apr 1, 2009 7:15am
Hey alter,

Look this post, rac is an expert entry in fib retracements
He always uses fib and S/R for his blind entries.
Check this post, and do some R&D in the weekend.
There are good examples.
Don't do it in live without practice.


http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=11403
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=11400
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=10193

Regards,

IkkI
What does not kill me makes me stronger. Friedrich Nietzsche,
  • #25,668
  • Apr 1, 2009 7:21am Apr 1, 2009 7:21am
Hey alter, check this post too

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=12176

I recommend you...

Regards,

IkkI
What does not kill me makes me stronger. Friedrich Nietzsche,
  • #25,669
  • Edited 8:39am Apr 1, 2009 7:36am | Edited 8:39am
Quoting marcelnyo
also, as time permits, we will get better in the long run, I can only imagine what gets better than 95% accuracy on trades?
The answer lies with the "expectunity" - the term coined in the "Trade your way to financial freedom". In simple terms, "expectunity" = "RR expectancy" (win ratio) X "number of trade opportunities".

Basically, one approach produces R3 expectancy, but those trades come by once a month. Or you have a system with R1.5 expectancy which allows you to take 4 trades per month. So, the "expectunity" of both systems is the same. That's (one of the) reason(s) some traders stick to lower TF - you need a HUGE a/c to be happy with the results of 10 trades per year.
One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #25,670
  • Apr 1, 2009 8:01am Apr 1, 2009 8:01am
Quoting alter
Marcel, Jig thank you for your comments.
if I have 95% hit rate it wouldn't be issue. But I have maybe 70-75%. I will post some A trades that will be stop out shortly.
So your entry is the break of the bar and you don't wait for ret?
No problem alter, I'm still a newbie here so I'm really happy to share something I know a little bit about.

since I started this method on my micro account I've always entered on the break of the bar, I'm more on the conservative side and always try not to be aggressive.

Best.

Marcel
  • #25,671
  • Apr 1, 2009 8:11am Apr 1, 2009 8:11am
Quoting Forex007
The answer lies with the "expectunity" - the term coined in the "Trade your way to financial freedom". In simple terms, "expectunity" = "RR expectancy" (win ratio) X "number of trade opportunities".

Basically, one approach produces R3 expectancy, but those trades come by once a month. Or you have a system with R1.5 which allows you to take 4 trades per month. So, the "expectunity" of both systems is the same. That's (one of the) reason(s) some traders stick to lower TF - you need a HUGE a/c to be happy with the results of 10 trades...
I can't believe I haven't read that book yet, I've downloaded it though, thanks for pointing it out forex007.

Just like the Big man says, it all comes with account size , for now, just stick to getting a high probability of success
  • #25,672
  • Edited 8:38am Apr 1, 2009 8:18am | Edited 8:38am
Quoting ikki
rac is an expert entry in fib retracements
He always uses fib and S/R for his blind entries.
Another option is to enter at the break of PB, but setting SL at some Fibo RT level. Risk-wise and logic-wise it's the same as doing blind entries; but waiting for PB to break somewhat "validates" the trade.
One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #25,673
  • Apr 1, 2009 8:29am Apr 1, 2009 8:29am
Quoting Forex007
The answer lies with the "expectunity" - the term coined in the "Trade your way to financial freedom". In simple terms, "expectunity" = "RR expectancy" (win ratio) X "number of trade opportunities".....
"expectunity" . LOL ...Love it!
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #25,674
  • Apr 1, 2009 9:39am Apr 1, 2009 9:39am
I'm in this trade, took some profit rest BE
EUR/CHF = 8h pinbar, Fib, ema, S/R....
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What does not kill me makes me stronger. Friedrich Nietzsche,
  • #25,675
  • Apr 1, 2009 12:20pm Apr 1, 2009 12:20pm
Newbie question. It might be off topic so plz feel free to kick it if it doesn't belong here. I am trying to understand how the market works in order to understand the bigger picture more but I am struggling to get my head around this problem. It could be that I have completely misunderstood how the market operates but my question in essence is this:

We are learning here to spot the A+ trades based on obvious S&R plus PA. The weekly EJ pin was a prime example that had everyone queueing up to go short. My question is if it is so obvious to everyone, including the big players who shape the market, that the price is going south, who on earth is placing the buy orders to allow all of those sells to go through?
  • #25,676
  • Apr 1, 2009 12:24pm Apr 1, 2009 12:24pm
Quoting TotalNewbie
Newbie question....
I think the PB traders on a weekly chart account for a tiny percentage of the overall market. Think of all the intradays traders etc.
Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
  • #25,677
  • Apr 1, 2009 12:33pm Apr 1, 2009 12:33pm
Quoting markmm
I think the PB traders on a weekly chart account for a tiny percentage of the overall market. Think of all the intradays traders etc.
The reality of this market it is SOOOOO BIG and so diverse in its use from its primary use for business to transact on, to the growing speculation of currencies. You have many models/methods/etc. Our job as technicians are to follow the footprints and spot the bigger footprints. People are always buying and selling for their own reasons. If more people are going to sell b/c of what we call a pinbar, all the better for us.

If you want some more reading material, search the name Darkstar, and read every single one of his posts. It will help give you a deeper understanding for what we trade in terms of the microstructure of this market

Mike
  • #25,678
  • Apr 1, 2009 12:41pm Apr 1, 2009 12:41pm
Quoting mbqb11
The reality of this market it is SOOOOO BIG and so diverse in its use from its primary use for business to transact on, to the growing speculation of currencies....
Great thanks Mike, always helps to understand the bigger picture and dynamics of what we are trading in. Ill add it to my list.
Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
  • #25,679
  • Apr 1, 2009 1:55pm Apr 1, 2009 1:55pm
Quoting Four Kids
Ghous why did you take this OB? To me it does not appear to be at swing H/L, or at PPZ, and does appear to be in traffic.
It was pretty decent IMO.

It was a nice nice reaction off the 9320 region once price closed below this region with a BEOB there was little doubt as to where price should head next,

we know our direction we then look for our trigger, found it...and BANG!...goes the gun shot

Regards,
Ghous.
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I believe . . .
  • #25,680
  • Apr 1, 2009 2:23pm Apr 1, 2009 2:23pm
Quoting mbqb11
The reality of this market it is SOOOOO BIG and so diverse in its use from its primary use for business to transact on, to the growing speculation of currencies....
just read Darkstars article on the structure of the forex markets, very very good,it has just cleared a few cloudy areas for me. thanx
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jon
PATIENCE... DISCIPLINE
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