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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #25,621
  • Mar 31, 2009 5:22pm Mar 31, 2009 5:22pm
What time do you US guys set your trading platform to? NY time or your local time?
It's all about cautious - and highly educated - wagering on probabilities.
  • #25,622
  • Edited 5:44pm Mar 31, 2009 5:28pm | Edited 5:44pm
Hi, Rubin.

I am just a rookie, but I think that AUD/NZD may run into some strong resistance just above 1.24. I see it as a strong PPZ on my daily chart and it even seems to be a PPZ on my monthly chart.

Also, there is a gigantic BEOB on the monthly chart at a swing high. In the long term I am bearish on this pair, but I don't know if that will affect trades taken on the daily chart followed by profits taken quickly.

Quoting gorubin

Case in point the daily BUOB in AUD/NZD. It fulfills all in my opinion (see attached) most of these requirements so maybe it gets a 6-7 so a B or an A- grade imo. It is bouncing off 200 & 365 MA at swing low, has not reached the 38 or 50 Fib levels yet (potential targets) and it has a huge body engulfing 2 or 3 candles.

Any opinions/thoughts?

Rubin.
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  • #25,623
  • Mar 31, 2009 5:56pm Mar 31, 2009 5:56pm
Another fun to watch setup, it's very tempting to trade, but I would hold my guns just yet, quite risky due to the 0.7000 round number.

What do you guys think?

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I'm still playing with the image size, so please bear with me
  • #25,624
  • Mar 31, 2009 6:08pm Mar 31, 2009 6:08pm
Quoting gorubin
Hi Guys,

I'm trying to develop a way to objectively grade my Pins prior to me taking them using the various factors such as below.

1. Daily levels & PPZ
2. Weekly levels & PPZ
3. Fib levels
4. SMA(200) and SMA(365)
5. MACD Convergence/Divergence
6. Swing High/Swing Low (bearish/bullish).
7. Long nose and/or body relative to prior bars.
8. Not in the middle of a consolidation area.

Any other factors that I'm missing? If we could give each equal weight or 1 point (or maybe not) then the max score would be a 8.

Case in point the daily BUOB in...
It might work, the location is good, and there are confluence with fib levels, and if you look at the long term charts, you might think of this as a signal to continue the uptrend, but I think the 1.24 PPZ is just too tough to fight... and would you look at that monthly BEOB.

Not worth my 1% IMO.
  • #25,625
  • Mar 31, 2009 6:16pm Mar 31, 2009 6:16pm
Quoting KissFan
That GU trade was just a great example of what Jim said many posts ago. "it ain't such a bad thing to get stopped out at break even". He's right of course, but a skull as thick as mine needs to lose some money from bad trade management to get the drift of that philosophy. I still however, need to be more selective of my trades. Another key to success in this business. I feel certain that a "# of trades open at one time" record has been broken by me back in late 2007 early 2008. While...
I understand your internal fight all to well. But I would rather light a candle then curse your darkness. Once you get some 500-1000+ pip trades from a overly patiently waited PB or Outside Bar off the Daily and/or Weekly, it starts to sink in.

Your on the right path KissFan. Keep the good fight going, you will win over time.

Jim
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #25,626
  • Mar 31, 2009 6:30pm Mar 31, 2009 6:30pm
You'd figure after reading this chart for months and months I'd get the hint...

I took a couple days off after a couple of losers, came back and did awesome last week only taking A+ trades (291 pips - which may seem tiny to most of you, but it was huge for me). Then last night I figured the EJ would stop retracing so I placed a short - big mistake - 250 pips later I'm right back where I started.

I sometimes 'force it' thinking that if I have the shotgun approach (I know, I know) it'll turn around for me. It's definitely frustrating seeing all the work last week go away in a span of 12 hours - I'm sure this has happened to most of you, just figure someone can give me some helpful advice - any tips as to make ONLY A+ trades - I guess my patience is terrible!

I'm definitely not giving up - I'd love to do this full time someday, it's just frustrating at times

Also, are most of you staying out of the market considering it's G20 week?
  • #25,627
  • Mar 31, 2009 6:34pm Mar 31, 2009 6:34pm
Quoting marcelnyo
Another fun to watch setup, it's very tempting to trade, but I would hold my guns just yet, quite risky due to the 0.7000 round number.

What do you guys think?
This James16 post automatically appears in my head when I see a potential PA setup developing. Yours marcelnyo is no exception:

James16:

THIS IS CRITICAL.

WE MUST LEARN TO:

1. notice a strong s/r area just beyond our pa if it exists.
2. know that if we trade into it we had better be prepared for a quick reversal that could give us a loss if we are not prepared.

if we know its there, we have several choices.

1. get out when it gets there for a small profit.
2. take a small partial profit and move the remainder to BE.
3. stay in with your total position hoping for a break and move your stop to BE.
4. Dont enter until the level has been broken.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=15568
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #25,628
  • Mar 31, 2009 6:47pm Mar 31, 2009 6:47pm
Quoting Grover
You'd figure after reading this chart for months and months I'd get the hint...

I took a couple days off after a couple of losers, came back and did awesome last week only taking A+ trades (291 pips - which may seem tiny to most of you, but it was huge for me). Then last night I figured the EJ would stop retracing so I placed a short - big mistake - 250 pips later I'm right back where I started.

Also, are most of you staying out of the market considering it's G20 week?
I had been doing this sort of thing for a year. i think it just takes getting tired of it, yet refusing to give up. I have found that monitoring my mood is one key. One of the questions on my trade plan is ..."how do you feel?"
Nervous is bad, Confidence is good but euphoria is really bad. It is much easier to take a stupid trade after some success. Asking this question has helped me to recognize when I am out of control.

As for the G20, anytime we have a bunch of hot air and clowns the potential for pips increases. I say bring 'em on.
  • #25,629
  • Mar 31, 2009 7:11pm Mar 31, 2009 7:11pm
Hi All

Just entered USD/JPY short on 4 hr with rational being PPZ at 99 ( my entry )

and hammer bar with SL at 99.44 / > prev hi. Cant win them all !!!!!!!!!!

Any comments ????

Ta Gerard
  • #25,630
  • Mar 31, 2009 7:24pm Mar 31, 2009 7:24pm
Quoting Gerard212
Hi All

Just entered USD/JPY short on 4 hr with rational being PPZ at 99 ( my entry )

and hammer bar with SL at 99.44 / > prev hi. Cant win them all !!!!!!!!!!

Any comments ????

Ta Gerard
Sorry I can't see my regular charts now. Can you post a chart?
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #25,631
  • Edited 7:30pm Mar 31, 2009 7:29pm | Edited 7:30pm
On my feed we have about 30m before the next 4hr candle. Looking at this chart it appears to have a great 8hr pin forming just below major resistance. I know it doesnt have much room to run, but I was just wondering what everyone's thoughts were on this?
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  • #25,632
  • Mar 31, 2009 7:38pm Mar 31, 2009 7:38pm
Quoting Gerard212
Hi All

Just entered USD/JPY short on 4 hr with rational being PPZ at 99 ( my entry )

and hammer bar with SL at 99.44 / > prev hi. Cant win them all !!!!!!!!!!

Any comments ????

Ta Gerard
Yes, you don't mess with yen when Tankan report is due.
I also went short ej and gj.. but 10min after..
  • #25,633
  • Mar 31, 2009 7:41pm Mar 31, 2009 7:41pm
Quoting Grover
You'd figure after reading this chart for months and months I'd get the hint...

Then last night I figured the EJ would stop retracing so I placed a short - big mistake - 250 pips later I'm right back where I started.
1) Don't beat yourself up, but learn from it

Stupid people don't learn from their mistakes
Normal people learn from their own mistakes
Wise people learn from others mistakes

2) A normal feeling to have, but a dangerous one. Remember that as price reaches a PPZ, it can go either way. Its PA that gives us the clue. You "figuring" that EJ would stop retracing, and the market giving you a simple clue are vastly different stress levels!
  • #25,634
  • Mar 31, 2009 7:59pm Mar 31, 2009 7:59pm
i did this for 8 years grover.

you should be thrilled you have discovered what you have so early on.


jim




Quoting Grover
You'd figure after reading this chart for months and months I'd get the hint...

I took a couple days off after a couple of losers, came back and did awesome last week only taking A+ trades (291 pips - which may seem tiny to most of you, but it was huge for me). Then last night I figured the EJ would stop retracing so I placed a short - big mistake - 250 pips later I'm right back where I started.

I sometimes 'force it' thinking that if I have the shotgun approach (I know, I know) it'll turn around for me. It's definitely frustrating seeing all...
  • #25,635
  • Mar 31, 2009 8:33pm Mar 31, 2009 8:33pm
Quoting pipslapped
On my feed we have about 30m before the next 4hr candle. Looking at this chart it appears to have a great 8hr pin forming just below major resistance. I know it doesnt have much room to run, but I was just wondering what everyone's thoughts were on this?
Well it was no longer a pin once the bar ended. So another reason not to enter trades before the bar ends.
  • #25,636
  • Mar 31, 2009 8:33pm Mar 31, 2009 8:33pm
I was a little hesitate in post this charts. This were blind entries with tight stops, and % risk
I entered in AUD/USD, b/c confluence in S/R 4h, fib 50, and Ema60.
EUR/JPY = daily fib retracement, fib 50 in round number, and ema60
And the last chart, made me more secure in my trades.
I'm demoing, demo accounts.....
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What does not kill me makes me stronger. Friedrich Nietzsche,
  • #25,637
  • Mar 31, 2009 8:34pm Mar 31, 2009 8:34pm
This one looked interesting to me. Eur/Nzd Daily BUOB.

Nice fib confluence, off a well defined ppz and at a swing low. I'd wait to enter after the break of those bar lows at 2.3750 if I decide to take it.
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  • #25,638
  • Mar 31, 2009 8:58pm Mar 31, 2009 8:58pm
Quoting Grover
You'd figure after reading this chart for months and months I'd get the hint... It's definitely frustrating seeing all the work last week go away in a span of 12 hours - I'm sure this has happened to most of you, just figure someone can give me some helpful advice
My worst VICE is ADVICE... I was reading one of the Market Wizards books a few weeks ago and a couple of the wizards said basically the same thing. After a big win they would either take time off or reduce their position size (could be half normal, etc). Another piece of advice I read here on FF, I think, was after a big win you can switch over to demo for a bit.

Now, don't ask me if I follow this advice myself. But, I do hear the voice inside saying to "chill for a bit".
Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
  • #25,639
  • Mar 31, 2009 9:21pm Mar 31, 2009 9:21pm
Quoting jarroo
I understand your internal fight all to well. But I would rather light a candle then curse your darkness. Once you get some 500-1000+ pip trades from a overly patiently waited PB or Outside Bar off the Daily and/or Weekly, it starts to sink in.

Your on the right path KissFan. Keep the good fight going, you will win over time.

Jim
Thanks for the encouragement Jaroo. It's fun and embarrassing at the same time to go back and look at myjournal that I used to keep. Had some really great success for the most part, but couldn't justify the pressure of watching my trades so closely every waking min. PA will set me as close to free as I can stand. Only daily/weekly/monthly timeframes are traded here now buddy!
  • #25,640
  • Mar 31, 2009 10:14pm Mar 31, 2009 10:14pm
Thanks Marcelnyo and PipGator. I had not looked at the monthly BEOB and that's a good point to consider that as well. I think I might take a shot with this trade if it breaks the 1.24 PPZ I think it might have enough room to go to 1.25 or halfway there...we shall see.

Quoting marcelnyo
It might work, the location is good, and there are confluence with fib levels, and if you look at the long term charts, you might think of this as a signal to continue the uptrend, but I think the 1.24 PPZ is just too tough to fight... and would you look at that monthly BEOB.

Not worth my 1% IMO.
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