DislikedI have been backtesting a way to consistantly enter and exit trades while driving the Firebird EA using the THV3 Trend Indicator to confirm the beginning and end of the trend. There are going to be times that the market will change to yellow(flat) then back again to the trend but if you exit consistantly you should not have as much drawdown.
I marked a few entry and exit points. Green verticle line entry and red verticle line exit.
Rules:
Long Entry - Enter on second green bar if in long position and then exit on next bar after a yellow or...Ignored
Semi automatic EA (Driven Version)
- #932
- Apr 1, 2009 3:30am Apr 1, 2009 3:30am
Hello Samurai friend,
How are you doing, went live yet with firebird? And how is your company, turning profits okey? Well, I'm +60% for March, now I'm waiting for good trend established on one of my pairs, to put my money on stake, ofcourse microlots first, to see a reality show
.
Regards,
How are you doing, went live yet with firebird? And how is your company, turning profits okey? Well, I'm +60% for March, now I'm waiting for good trend established on one of my pairs, to put my money on stake, ofcourse microlots first, to see a reality show
. Regards,
- #933
- Apr 1, 2009 4:45am Apr 1, 2009 4:45am
Hi fellow friend,
As u can see that this system is costumable, the key is drive it in the right way....
i forgot to change the direction last 2 days....when the hammer candle appear..... and the result....
market took back my gain profit. Now start it again with BUY mode on EU GU and GY..... already take back what they took from accout (demo only hehe
)
- #934
- Apr 1, 2009 4:51am Apr 1, 2009 4:51am
hmmmm since we cant do the back test in full for this strategy, we cant know the performance of our system in full.
my thought on riding this EA (my drunk drive style)....just follow yesterday candle - with exception of shooting star/hammer....long wick candle.
then we could get 20 days of trading...and no less than 1minute analysis when to change direction (in driving...we have to give signal first for changing direction/lane etc ).
in 20 days of trading...lets say we got 200pip a day x 20 = 4000pips. give back to market lets say 1000pips...then we get in total 3000pips.....it is good for everybody i think. but we have to keep in mind on Money Management....dont get your account burnt just like that.
the EA is here to help enter the trade. We decide where we want to bring the ea..to south or to north.
my thought on riding this EA (my drunk drive style)....just follow yesterday candle - with exception of shooting star/hammer....long wick candle.
then we could get 20 days of trading...and no less than 1minute analysis when to change direction (in driving...we have to give signal first for changing direction/lane etc
). in 20 days of trading...lets say we got 200pip a day x 20 = 4000pips. give back to market lets say 1000pips...then we get in total 3000pips.....it is good for everybody i think. but we have to keep in mind on Money Management....dont get your account burnt just like that.
the EA is here to help enter the trade. We decide where we want to bring the ea..to south or to north.
Hi Guys,
This is gonna be a long one so grab a coffee or fast forward!
Experienced traders will know and understand all of this but hopefully newbies or less experienced folk may find something of use here.
I pointed a senior member friend to this thread and his comment was that the EA looks good but every other post on the thread seems to be someone trying to find the perfect indicator or timeframe to define the trend and therefore eliminate drawdowns - it ain't gonna happen and if you are waiting for that perfect set of indis, you're never gonna pull the trigger and go live!
The THV template gives more trend indis than you can shake a stick at and if you use more than 2 or 3 of them you'll never be able to make a decision - use one or two that suit you, backtest your results and base your strategy on them, switch all the others off or you'll remain confused.
Samurai gave a sound piece of advice at the beginning - look at the news and add this to your analysis - don't let it form your decisions.
The most recent posts now seem to be advocating looking at ever shorter timeframes because this week most currencies are ranging and making it difficult to come to a long or short decision - well - look at the news; we've got the G20 summit in London this week and NFP on Friday. The markets are unsure which way to go but general concensus is that $ strengthens during these summits.
General concensus of Euro is that it is due to weaken in the short term. Another article on the AUD sugests that it is unlikely to strengthen much more before weakening against the USD. This is only what I've read so I don't know if it's good info or bad but it helps me to make a decision, combined with my analysis of the indicators that I've chosen to use.
Let's look at the way the EA works; it places trades on retracements - every 40 pips on my settings. If you micro manage the EA on a 1 or 4 hour timeframe and get jittery every time it retraces you stop it from trading the way Samurai suggests and you will only ever close trades that are in drawdown - if you have even allowed the EA to place them in the first place.
You will get to the bottom of a long trend littered with closed losing trades with virtually no winning trades yet when you back test it later it will show you should have made 1500+ pips!
Going back to the first point - did the backtesting of your strategy show that long term you would be profitable with your strategy? If so, leave the EA alone to do its work - this is emotion at work which doesn't play a part in back testing but certainly does when you pull the trigger on a live account!
So let's look at a trading situation; you're trading 3 $ pairs, SL=300, max orders=5, step=40. You are driving short and the price has spent a day retracing. Have you switched the EA's off or has your analysis given you the confidence to stick with your plan and leave the EA to do its job?
In a worst case scenario you have 15 open orders and are close to your first SL position. This means you are (3 x -280) + (3 x -260) + (3 x -220) + (3 x -180) + (3 x -140) = -$3240 floating based on 0.1 lot / $10000 account. Ok - it wouldn't look like this in reality but you get the picture?
Now, if this is too rich then you will be very tempted to start interfering with your trades. If your strategy is sound and properly backtested then you will leave it alone - you may SL out on one or two but the winners will cover it and long term you will win. Remember - your backtesting assumes you will leave all trades to run and the very positive back testing results that this EA gives are based on long term (daily timeframe) results.
So - to summarise:
Find two max indis that suit you to indicate the daily trend
Keep an eye on the news and don't try to change your strategy to suit every week's chart pattern - understand why the charts are behaving as they are and switch off if necessary.
Have faith in your strategy and backtesting so you can leave your emotions out of the picture when you go live
Make sure that your settings match you money management rules.
This is a large timeframe EA which means big numbers, potentially big profits, potentially big floating drawdowns but fortunately, according to my backtesting, not too many big stop losses and thus emotion will always play a big part.
If the emotions attached to this size timeframe are too much then how about reducing your SL & TP's by a factor of 10 and backtest it on 4 hr or 1 hr trends?
Only trade 1 pair?
Reduce Max open orders or increase Pip step settings?
All of this is just imho - don't mean to lecture but hopefully bring a slightly different perspective to the use of this great EA.
This is gonna be a long one so grab a coffee or fast forward!
Experienced traders will know and understand all of this but hopefully newbies or less experienced folk may find something of use here.
I pointed a senior member friend to this thread and his comment was that the EA looks good but every other post on the thread seems to be someone trying to find the perfect indicator or timeframe to define the trend and therefore eliminate drawdowns - it ain't gonna happen and if you are waiting for that perfect set of indis, you're never gonna pull the trigger and go live!
The THV template gives more trend indis than you can shake a stick at and if you use more than 2 or 3 of them you'll never be able to make a decision - use one or two that suit you, backtest your results and base your strategy on them, switch all the others off or you'll remain confused.
Samurai gave a sound piece of advice at the beginning - look at the news and add this to your analysis - don't let it form your decisions.
The most recent posts now seem to be advocating looking at ever shorter timeframes because this week most currencies are ranging and making it difficult to come to a long or short decision - well - look at the news; we've got the G20 summit in London this week and NFP on Friday. The markets are unsure which way to go but general concensus is that $ strengthens during these summits.
General concensus of Euro is that it is due to weaken in the short term. Another article on the AUD sugests that it is unlikely to strengthen much more before weakening against the USD. This is only what I've read so I don't know if it's good info or bad but it helps me to make a decision, combined with my analysis of the indicators that I've chosen to use.
Let's look at the way the EA works; it places trades on retracements - every 40 pips on my settings. If you micro manage the EA on a 1 or 4 hour timeframe and get jittery every time it retraces you stop it from trading the way Samurai suggests and you will only ever close trades that are in drawdown - if you have even allowed the EA to place them in the first place.
You will get to the bottom of a long trend littered with closed losing trades with virtually no winning trades yet when you back test it later it will show you should have made 1500+ pips!
Going back to the first point - did the backtesting of your strategy show that long term you would be profitable with your strategy? If so, leave the EA alone to do its work - this is emotion at work which doesn't play a part in back testing but certainly does when you pull the trigger on a live account!
So let's look at a trading situation; you're trading 3 $ pairs, SL=300, max orders=5, step=40. You are driving short and the price has spent a day retracing. Have you switched the EA's off or has your analysis given you the confidence to stick with your plan and leave the EA to do its job?
In a worst case scenario you have 15 open orders and are close to your first SL position. This means you are (3 x -280) + (3 x -260) + (3 x -220) + (3 x -180) + (3 x -140) = -$3240 floating based on 0.1 lot / $10000 account. Ok - it wouldn't look like this in reality but you get the picture?
Now, if this is too rich then you will be very tempted to start interfering with your trades. If your strategy is sound and properly backtested then you will leave it alone - you may SL out on one or two but the winners will cover it and long term you will win. Remember - your backtesting assumes you will leave all trades to run and the very positive back testing results that this EA gives are based on long term (daily timeframe) results.
So - to summarise:
Find two max indis that suit you to indicate the daily trend
Keep an eye on the news and don't try to change your strategy to suit every week's chart pattern - understand why the charts are behaving as they are and switch off if necessary.
Have faith in your strategy and backtesting so you can leave your emotions out of the picture when you go live
Make sure that your settings match you money management rules.
This is a large timeframe EA which means big numbers, potentially big profits, potentially big floating drawdowns but fortunately, according to my backtesting, not too many big stop losses and thus emotion will always play a big part.
If the emotions attached to this size timeframe are too much then how about reducing your SL & TP's by a factor of 10 and backtest it on 4 hr or 1 hr trends?
Only trade 1 pair?
Reduce Max open orders or increase Pip step settings?
All of this is just imho - don't mean to lecture but hopefully bring a slightly different perspective to the use of this great EA.
You don't have to be right, just don't be too wrong
Hi Guys,
............
All of this is just imho - don't mean to lecture but hopefully bring a slightly different perspective to the use of this great EA.
Regards,
Samurai Power